Point/Counterpoint: DraftKings Week 13

December 1, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:

Every week of the season for daily fantasy brings new debates about core plays, fades, game stacks, and more. For fantasy purposes, it is best to read about both sides of the argument and decide which side, data, and analysis YOU agree with.

For the NFL season, our series of Point/Counterpoint will be a back-and-forth discussion between siblings Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup about the slate strategy, stacks, core plays, and fades for that week.

So let’s get to Week 13 strategy talk!

MEG:

Week 13 is a mix of some divisional rivalries and marquee match-ups with major playoff implications.

For the marquee matchups, we have the Eagles vs. Titans, Dolphins vs. 49ers, and Bengals vs. Chiefs. Is this where you see most of your game stacks or are there other games that interest you from a game stack perspective?

What QBs, from those games or others do you see being in your QB pool?

STEVE:

Those 3 games are definitely the most interesting, but I do think this is a week where we have a lot of strong match-ups. Chargers vs Raiders are a pair of defenses that have struggled to stop anyone all season, and both offenses have multiple elite options to use in game stacks. Lions vs Jaguars are another pairing of offenses that have the upside to produce 3-5 TDs apiece, and top talent with slate-breaking upside. I don’t want to read too much into one game, but I have to be interested in the Vikings-Jets as a game stack. All offseason we wanted to draft Jets players in best ball, but we had to worry about a bad passing offense led by Zach Wilson weighing them down. Now if Mike White keeps throwing the ball like this (against a questionable Vikings pass defense), sign me up again! On the other side, you have a lower price Kirk Cousins, with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson.

Adding those additional game stacks pretty much shows my entire QB pool, though I will eventually try to condense the number. How about you, how many of these strong QB match-ups will you look to focus on?

MEG:

You make great points about the Chargers/Raiders, Vikings/Jets, and Lions/Jaguars games. My main QB pool will be Mahomes, Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, and Mike White for the main slate. I like some other cheaper QBs for Early only which we will discuss in a short slate article later this week.

There are a ton of studs RB, WR, and Travis Kelce on this slate. So which ones are you prioritizing?

For me, I’m my core spend-up options are Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson (more early only), ASB, and Travis Kelce.

Then to afford those spend-up cores, who are your core value plays?

STEVE:

My spend-up options are Henry, Josh Jacobs, Chase, Jefferson, ASB, and Kelce, so we are pretty similar there. As you said though we need to find some value to get as many of these stars as possible.

At running back I’m not seeing too much value that I like. Perhaps Jaylen Warren if Najee Harris is out, I think Brian Robinson can be a solid option. Gibson is still splitting some work with him, but they used Robinson more than the Falcons, which is the style they want to play. If Washington gets ahead Robinson is going to see 20 carries.

Receiver has some more intriguing options for value. Garrett Wilson is underpriced, and you can take a shot at Elijah Moore as well (though he only see 2 targets last week). Donovan Peoples-Jones now should see an upgrade at the QB spot with Watson back and they are playing a terrible Texans defense. Nico Collins on the other side is a strong bet for 8-10 targets at sub-$4,500. Depending on who is back for the Chiefs and Chargers we could see guys like MVS, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and DeAndre Carter offer some decent value. I also see George Pickens and Christian Watson as underpriced, given their upside.

Is there any other value you are seeing right now?

MEG:

We are pretty much aligned with all our value plays too. My favorite value or underpriced receivers are Garrett Wilson and George Pickens. At this point in the season, I want to play these rookies as they get more involved in their offenses. We saw it last week with Garrett Wilson and Mike White and I think we could see the same this week against that Vikings defense. And I think a George Pickens explosion week is coming, so why not against the Falcons’ terrible pass defense?

With so many good games to target, I think lineup correlation will be more important this week than in past weeks. I’m still deciding where I want the most exposure in game stacks and spend-ups. With that said, do you see any unique lineup construction ideas for this week?

One thing I may consider that I don’t usually do is to stack a cheap QB and their underpriced receiver. Then jam a game stack and/or skinny stack. For instance Mike White/Garrett Wilson or Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Then smash the Bengals/Chiefs stack and/or Raiders/Chargers. That’s one example of something I’m thinking about. Any thoughts on that idea?

STEVE:

I do think paying down a little for QB is a viable option this week. Though it’s tough to get away from Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow I do see some interesting cheaper options. Trevor Lawrence has the talent to be a good QB and I love his match-up this week. Mike White is a bit scarier since he’s only had the one start this year, but we just saw Mac Jones shred the Vikings’ defense. White I think has to be in play. I have no interest in Kenny Pickett as I don’t see the Steelers throwing enough in this game. If Pittsburgh is up or the game is close, Pickett will probably max around 30ish pass attempts. I just don’t think there is enough volume for Pickett to get more than 15-17 DK points. The only other value QB would be Jordan Love if Aaron Rodgers were to miss the game, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Beyond that, I don’t know if there is a concept that I think really works. I am actually more on board with stacking up games this week than most weeks. I see some true back-and-forth games, with fantasy talent on both sides. Games like the Bengals vs Chiefs and Raiders vs Chargers could really turn into high-scoring affairs. Lions vs Jaguars is another one I could see topping 50 points. These are the games I want to find pieces from more often.

MEG:

Agreed, I’ll have the most Bengals/Chiefs, but so will everyone else. So I need to determine how I’m going to be unique around it. Maybe value guys like Brian Robinson and George Pickens that not many are talking about is one way. I’ll be playing a lot of Early only short slate to avoid these shootouts, so look for our short slate article Saturday!