Point/Counterpoint: Week 11 Short Slates
By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:
We both like to play Short Slate in NFL daily fantasy. The Early Only and Afternoon Only slates give you opportunities to play differently than you play on the Main slate.
I use it as an opportunity to do the following:
-Hedge – get exposure to players I didn’t play in the Main slate
-Be Contrarian – stack up a game that people aren’t stacking as much
-Differently lineup construction – short slates you can do different lineup constructions than I typically would on Main. Whether it’s stars and scrubs, overstack a game, or play 2 TEs, it’s an opportunity to be unique with your lineup build.
So let’s talk Week 11 short slate strategy!
I have been doing better this season at short slates than main slate, so I think I’m going to play more of those for my bankroll each week. And bring on the Thanksgiving slate next week!
For the early only slate we have 8 games and for the afternoon only slate we have 3 games.
Let’s start with the early only slate. I’m sure you’ll be using similar QB stacks that we discussed for main slate but will you prioritize any QB stacks for early only? Will you go overweight on certain players in early only this week?
With the moving of the Bills game to a dome, I want to ensure I’m well overweight on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. They’ve been great all season, but now in a dome, vs a bad defense, and coming off a bad loss. I see the Bills putting up 35 points in this type of game.
The other QB stack I will prioritize early is Jalen Hurts and one of his receivers (depending on health). Coming off a bad loss the Eagles could look to “get right” vs a Colts defense that is missing some key players. With Goedert injured, even more of the passing should filter to his receivers, though we need to make sure they are healthy for this match-up as well. I know people will flock to Fields, but I worry his ownership might be too high in early slate. We don’t have guys like Prescott, Burrow, or Cousins to draw away from him. I think Fields ownership could top Allen’s given the price differential. I will play him a little to hedge, but Hurts will probably be my 2nd highest-owned QB on the early slate.
My biggest question early only is what do we do with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? We’ve seen 40-point upside from him earlier this season, but in the last 6 weeks Baltimore’s offense has struggled to be consistent. They will have one or two great drives and then sputter for the majority of the rest of the game. Do we think they bounce back, and is it worth taking a shot at a likely very low-owned Jackson in this short slate?
With the Bills/Browns game moving indoors I am now interested. Though due to the insane Thundersnow they are getting there, the Bills had to cancel practice Friday and don’t know exactly when it will be safe to travel. I just wonder if these distractions could impact the Bills coming off two losses as well. So I’ll want to see when they get to Detroit, but most likely I’ll want exposure to this game for the early only slate. The thing is, you have to pay for it so it needs to deliver if you play that game.
I have the same questions with the Eagles off a loss and losing Goedert…how will they respond? Their receivers are a bit hampered with injuries too, so how will that impact them? And with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, its more that I’m concerned they’ll just run Kenyan Drake and Gus Edwards 35 times. I believe Mark Andrews should be back. But again, you have to pay for he and Jackson, so they’d need to deliver.
As you can see, I’m still deciding my QB stacks, but I will eat the chalk with Justin Fields indoors and find ways to get different elsewhere.
Outside of the QB stacks, who are you prioritizing for the early only slate? With Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb playing in the afternoon, I think I’m interested in paying up for Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor and finding value at WR and TE for early only. How about you?
I’ll probably be lower on Barkley this week. I think Taylor is fine, but not sure if I will go overboard. The game script could take him out of the game quickly if the Eagles get up early.
As for the late slate, I am going to be way overweight on all the Dallas-Vikings players. I know many of them are expensive, but the upside is high and this game could be the shootout of the week. I have some interest in Burrow as well, but without Ja’Marr Chase it’s not as interesting. Especially against the Steelers who look a lot better on defense with T.J. Watt back. I do like some of the Steelers receivers as mid-priced guys. My big question in the game is what to do with Mixon? Do we fade him because his ownership could be insanely high, or do we think without Chase they continue to keep him highly involved?
For the afternoon only, I’ll be stacking up the Cowboys/Vikings game a lot too, but I do like pieces from the Bengals/Steelers (Burrow/Higgins/Boyd) and Raiders/Broncos (Jacobs/Sutton/Dulchich). I struggle with what to do with Mixon. If he’s going to be high-owned, I’m tempted to go back to the passing game as leverage. So I’ll have a few Burrow stacks to get that leverage in afternoon only.
As much as I always like Justin Jefferson, I really like Dalvin Cook and TJ Hockenson this week too, and think they have better matchups than Jefferson actually. So trying to figure out my exposure to the expensive players in the afternoon slate.
What do you think of these strategies for short slates Week 11 DFS on DraftKings?