Point/Counterpoint: Week 11 DraftKings Strategies

November 17, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:

Every week of the season for daily fantasy brings new debates about core plays, fades, game stacks, and more. For fantasy purposes, it is best to read about both sides of the argument and decide which side, data, and analysis YOU agree with.

For the NFL season, our series of Point/Counterpoint will be a back-and-forth discussion between siblings Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup about the slate strategy, stacks, core plays, and fades for that week.

So let’s get to Week 11 strategy talk!

MEG:

Onto Week 11! Outside of the Cowboys/Vikings game there is hard to find a lot of games stacks I’m interested in. How about you?

It’s even tough to find QB stacks I like outside of that game other than Justin Fields. It sounds like there could be snow in Cleveland for the Bill/Browns game.

There are a lot of running backs I see in good spots, but QB stacks I’m struggling with them. What do you think?

STEVE:

I’m most interested in both sides of that Cowboys/Vikings game. Not only could it be a fun shootout, but there is a solid discount on Prescott and Cousins vs the top QBs. Fields saw a price bump, so he’s pretty close to the Allen/Hurts tier now. If he puts up 40 points again that’s great, but if he comes back to the 20-point range, it might be worth paying up for Allen or Hurts. I know Fields has a pretty easy match-up against the Falcons, but do we really think he will have another monster game? Especially now with the price bump and high ownership? It’s a tough call, but I think these five QBs will be who I focus on this week. I might add Joe Burrow to the mix, but I just don’t see any value.

MEG:

The answer to Fields for me is yes, I do think it’s somewhat likely in his range of outcomes. Maybe not 40 points, but if he puts up 30 against the Falcons he could easily be QB1 or QB2 on the week. I also have an interest in Hurts, Prescott, and Burrow stacks.

I do see some value at RB, WR, and TE that I’m interested in. So who are the best value plays that you like this week?

STEVE:

Looking into more of the weather concerns for Buffalo, they are now saying that the region could see upwards of 6 ft of snow between Thursday night and Sunday afternoon. There is a chance they could even be moved. This is definitely something to monitor.

For RBs Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor should both get plenty of usage, and could be worth paying up for. I worry about paying that price for two offenses that are limited, but these are star backs who will get plenty of carries and targets. I am very interested in Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, and Tony Pollard as well, but David Montgomery is my favorite in the mid-tier. With Herbert on the IR, Montgomery should see a big role. Now that defenses have to respect Justin Fields, Montgomery could see a lot more favorable looks. My other core RB will be Brian Robinson Jr. He hasn’t been that effective yet and is pretty limited in the passing game, but he should see 20+ carries. Against a bad Houston defense that could equal 120+ yards and 1 or 2 TDs.

I’m more interested in wide receiver this week as I don’t mind chasing major performances from Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. The number of targets they are both getting is exactly what we are looking for, and I see this game shooting out. I also like Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Bengals duo of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd when I’m paying up some. In the mid-tier I like some good receivers attached to bad offenses in Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore. All could be in a strong position for 10 catches for 130 yards and a TD, but they all could max out at 5 for 50 as well. I’ll probably look to mix these three in my line-ups, but don’t want to go all-in on any of them, given the risk.

At tight end, it’s a pretty small list for me, with T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Schultz being my top options. Hockenson has quickly become the number two option for the Vikings, and has back-to-back 10+ DK points without a TD. If he gets in the box he could be TE 1 for the week. Schultz is starting to look more like he did last season, and I like his price and match-up. I might have some interest in Tyler Higbee, with Cooper Kupp out and will go back to Greg Dulcich, but I feel less confident with those plays. I will also look to pay down some as well.

MEG:

For your core plays, I generally agree! The targets haven’t been there lately for either Barkley or Taylor right? But the usage is unreal. Both backs were just fed last week, with Barkley getting 35 carries. That’s wild! I like your mid-tier backs, except I’m unsure about Jacobs. That team and offense look broken and not sure I want to pay that price when I like other RBs in that range more. I feel the same way about Higbee, I think he’s a good cash play. But he feels like bad chalk in that busted Rams offense.

As for value, here are the value plays I’m considering:

-RB: Jaylen Warren (if Harris is out or limited) and I want to look more into the Ravens RBs

-WR: Parris Campbell, Nico Collins, and Elijah Moore/Garrett Wilson

-TE: Schultz as you mentioned, plus Isiah Likely (if Andrews is out), McBride, Kmet, Moreau, Dulcich, and Logan Thomas

What do you think of my value plays at this point in the week? Are there any other values you see?

Finally, I can tell you want to pay up for QB and probably at least one RB. What lineup construction do you think you’ll be most focused on this week?

STEVE:

The targets weren’t there for Barkley and Taylor this past week, but that seems more likely to be a fluke rather than the new standard for them. Both players are just too valuable to their offenses to not see even more work. I do worry about the Raiders’ offense, but Jacobs’ usage is pretty strong. We saw him put up 37 DK points in this match-up earlier in the season. I don’t expect that again, but I think he can get 20-25 points.

I’m on board with most of those value plays. Probably the only one I’d push back on is Elijah Moore. I know there is coachspeak about getting him involved, but it’s so weird that they didn’t have a plan to involve him already in this offense. Maybe I will take a couple shots on him, but given the lack of volume of the Jets’ offense and Garrett Wilson being the de facto number 1, I don’t know if I can play him a lot.

As for some other value options:

RB- Michael Carter/James Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and D’onta Foreman. The Jets are splitting their backfield touches and on paper, it’s a tough match-up, but I like the way the Jets have utilized their backs this season. I could see one of these guys getting around 20 DK points if the Jets are to win this game. Gibson I imagine will be far less owned than Brian Robinson. He is the more explosive player of the two, will get the majority of the passing work, and still has seen decent usage inside the 10-yard line. It would not be shocking to see him outproduce Robinson at a fraction of the ownership. As for Foreman, hopefully, the Panthers now see that he can be their top RB and they will keep feeding him the ball.

WR- Quez Watkins, Van Jefferson, and Jarvis Landry. The Eagles will already be missing Goedert and both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are banged up. Watkins could see more run even if both of those receivers play, but really could take off if one of them misses the game. Jefferson will need to step into a bigger role without Cooper Kupp. Sounds like Stafford will be back, and he should look to utilize Jefferson more. With being a deep threat player, just one big pass could go a long way to hitting value for Jefferson. As for Landry, he got 6 targets in his first game back and has a pretty solid match-up this week. This isn’t a big ceiling play, but he could see 8+ targets at $4,500.

TE- The only value guys I’d add are Juwan Johnson and Jack Stoll/Grant Calcaterra. Johnson has been a solid red zone weapon for the Saints, and still has a reasonable price. You will probably need a TD for him to crack 10 points, but he’s worth a look here. While I don’t think either Stoll or Calcaterra will fully replace Goedert, one of them should see 5+ targets. Stoll has been the number 2 TE, but I actually think Calcaterra could see more of the passing work now.

Generally speaking, I do plan on paying up at QB. I’m actually probably more interested in paying up at WR this week vs RB, but there are some key $7K+ backs that I want to consider for sure. How about you, what is your build this week?

MEG:

I agree, that I’m mostly paying up at QB, at least one RB position, and at least one WR position. Outside of that, there is some mid-tier and cheap value I’m interested in and hope I can put it all together this week!