Point/Counterpoint: DraftKings Strategies Week 10

November 10, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:

Every week of the season for daily fantasy brings new debates about core plays, fades, game stacks, and more. For fantasy purposes, it is best to read about both sides of the argument and decide which side, data, and analysis YOU agree with.

For the NFL season, our series of Point/Counterpoint will be a back-and-forth discussion between siblings Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup about the slate strategy, stacks, core plays, and fades for that week.

So let’s get to Week 10 strategy talk!

MEG:

Well, it wasn’t a great week for us in Week 9 because we didn’t play Joe Mixon and not nearly enough Justin Fields. So how do we bounce back in Week 10?

At first glance, if you’re looking for games to stack, there aren’t a lot of intriguing options. The Chiefs/Jaguars, Lions/Bears, and Dolphins/Browns are the only games with Vegas totals above 48 points at this point.

We’ll have to see the status of the Josh Allen injury to determine if we think the Vikings/Bills game could be good to target or not.

So what games intrigue you the most to stack or have a lot of exposure to? Do you see any Joe Mixon‘s of Week 10?

STEVE:

My favorite game this week is the Chiefs/Jaguars match-up. Kansas City’s offensive firepower was held in check Sunday night, but the talent is there. They can put up 30+ points in any game, and the Jaguars’ pass defense has been continuously exploited. On the flip side, Travis Etienne looks like a great play against a Chiefs’ run defense that has had plenty of their own issues. I think there is a good chance this game goes over the total and is the week’s highest scoring.

With the Bears/Lions game, I do want to have some stacks, but I don’t know if I want to go overweight. Last week Justin Fields was the play with an incredible 45-point game. Everything went right for him in that game with 3 passing TDs on just 120 passing yards. He also added 170+ rushing yards and a TD on 15 attempts. That type of runout is going to be tough to copy. Fields is averaging under 150 passing yards a game, so you are typically likely to get 1 passing TD. Then to more than triple his previous rushing yards average and get a TD, it’s tough to bank on, and his price jumped $1,200. If he goes back to the mid-20’s in points that is okay value, but definitely not a must-play. The good news is the Lions on paper are one of the best defenses to target, and Detroit can put up some big offensive numbers of their own. Honestly, I like the Jared Goff side better in this game, but that leaves me with no one to bring it back from Chicago.

Dolphins/Browns is an interesting game to me. Miami’s defense continues to let below-average offenses produce points, which keeps Tua throwing. It’s an expensive stack, but I like Nick Chubb and having Tua + Tyreek coming back. Waddle and Amari Cooper are also solid options as well.

As for a mega-fantasy performer like Mixon this week, I think it could be Saquon Barkley against the Texans. Houston’s run defense is comically bad this season, and Barkley should be able to feast all game. He also will get some of the passing work that typically helps for a major ceiling game. I could see Barkley have a 40+ point game, as this is the type of match-up where he could have multi-TDs.

MEG:

Saquon Barkley was my potential Mixon candidate this week too against that porous Texans’ run defense.

I’ve been on Tua stacks all season and quite honestly I wish I would have done more Tua stacks instead of spreading my exposure so much. So that is what I’m going to do this week, I’m going to limit my QB exposure so I don’t spread myself too thin. My favorite QB stacks this week are of course, Tua, then Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and possibly Trevor Lawrence. I agree that Chiefs/Jaguars game is the most intriguing to stack up.

I’m a bit higher on Fields than you this week. Yes, last week was an outlier performance but with the way he’s rushing and against this Lions defense, I could see a 30+ point fantasy day for Fields, which is still awesome even at this raised price.

The biggest question mark of the week is Josh Allen‘s status. If he’s out, I won’t have a lot of interest in that game. If he’s in and playing through this elbow injury, I’m still hesitant to stack up that game with the Bills’ defense and the potential lack of total points, given the prices of the players in the Bills/Vikings game.

So now that we talked about stacks, who are your core plays at RB, WR and TE in addition to Barkley against the Texans?

STEVE:

Yeah I think the Bills/Vikings game will be an avoid game for me. Allen will either miss the game or be less than 100% and his pricing and that of the rest of Buffalo won’t reflect that. On the flip side, Minnesota has not shown a real up-tempo approach unless they get down in games. Maybe if Allen was healthy you could tell a story of a shoot-out, but with the Allen question mark, I just don’t see this game getting up there in points. Maybe I’ll take some shots in short slates, but probably not in the main slate.

For me my core plays:

At RB Barkley will be my top back, followed closely by Etienne, Chubb, and Henry. I’m also high on Dameon Pierce and Tony Pollard (if Zeke is out). Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs are both worth considering, but I’m not a big fan of their prices.

For WR I love Tyreek Hill, Waddle, and DeAndre Hopkins, but I don’t know how much I will be able to pay for them. Two of my favorite receivers are Chris Olave and Amon-Ra St. Brown. We’ve seen the upside these two young receivers have and the match-ups are very favorable. You do have to rely on sub-par QB play, but that is hard to avoid in today’s NFL.

At TE I do like paying up for Travis Kelce quite a bit. I think he could double or even triple the field. Not much else stand out at the position, so I will probably just sprinkle value when not playing Kelce.

MEG:

Your core plays are in line with all of mine. I would just add Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk to that list. The problem is most of the players we love for Week 10 are expensive or at least mid-tier prices, so where are we going to save?

I’m always fine punting defense and tight end for that matter. But do you see any receivers or tight ends that jump out as massive values?

Lineup construction is going to be very interesting this week for where do you pay up and where do you save?

STEVE:

Yeah, I probably will consider Kirk as a core play as well, as I love that game. Finding value is once again not easy this week. Among receivers $5K or less, it’s a pretty thin group. George Pickens will need to step up in a bigger role, and coming off a bye should hopefully be more ingrained into the offense. The Steelers also could have a bit of a back-and-forth game with the Saints. Kalif Raymond should once again be the Lions’ 2nd or 3rd WR this week, as Chark should be out and maybe Josh Reynolds misses the game as well. It sounds like Nico Collins could be returning to the Texans, but that is up in the air at the moment. I don’t see myself trusting either of the Colts’ cheap receivers given all that is going on in Indy right now.

At the tight end spot, if I’m not paying up for Kelce I will probably look mainly at Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson, and Tanner Hudson. Dulcich I think has the most upside, as I’m hoping this is another situation that coming off a bye he’s really now a bigger part of this offense. I also hope that some of the disconnects between the staff and Russ Wilson will have gotten fixed as well.

MEG:

I agree with the value plays and there are plenty of viable cheap tight ends this week. I’ll add Chase Claypool, Hardman or MVS, and Donovan Peoples-Jones as cheap receivers.