Point/Counterpoint: Week 7 DraftKings Strategies

October 20, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:

Every week of the season for daily fantasy brings new debates about core plays, fades, game stacks, and more. For fantasy purposes, it is best to read about both sides of the argument and decide which side, data, and analysis YOU agree with.

For the NFL season, our series of Point/Counterpoint will be a back-and-forth discussion between siblings Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup about the slate strategy, stacks, core plays, and fades for that week.

So let’s get to Week 7 strategy talk!

MEG:

I think what stands out most about week 7 NFL DFS is we are missing some powerhouse offenses and fantasy players since the Bills, Eagles, Rams and Vikings are all on a bye this week.

The Chargers/Seahawks has the slate’s highest total, currently at 51.5. But both offenses did not look good in week 6 and the Chargers’ offense looked like a mess on MNF. So what games do you go to for stacks?

I like the Cowboys/Lions, hoping that Dak returns healthy and efficient. I also have an interest in the Falcons/Bengals. What do you think about the 49ers/Chiefs and the Texans/Raiders? I think those could be used for maybe some secondary stacks possibly.

What do you think, what are your favorite games to target this week?

STEVE:

It was painful to watch and to my DK account, but I’m going back to the Chargers in this match-up. It was an ugly game Monday night, but we know how good Justin Herbert is, and with Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and hopefully the return of Keenan Allen, this offense can put up 35+ points easily. On the flip side, I think their defense is pretty poor and Seattle might be able to keep the tempo going as they have in some other games this year.

I will also take some shots on the Cowboys’ offense with Dak Prescott back. Not only are they playing the Lions’ porous defense, but remember this was the highest-scoring team in the league last season. Maybe they take it easy with Dak being back, but they could also put up 35+ in the first 3 quarters. This is a team that put up 30+ points 8 times last season, I think they try to show that Prescott is fully back and get this offense moving.

As for other games I like Falcons/Bengals is one I’m going to be high on. Burrow/Chase could go back-to-back as the premier QB/WR combo you need. I’ll also be looking at Lamar/Andrews, running it back with Amari Cooper/Njoku/Chubb. I think the Ravens will try to get Lamar Jackson going early in this game, after the bad loss versus the Giants. The Browns’ defense has looked pretty bad this season. They have already given up 30 or more points three times this season and gave up 24 to the Panthers and 23 to the Falcons, who aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts.

Sell me on being more on the 49ers/Chiefs or Texans/Raiders games. Right now I don’t have interest on the main slate.

MEG:

I think Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb, Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase, and Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews are my favorite stacks this week. Maybe I’ll run a Herbert lineup or two, but that offense looked broken. I’m not sure if it’s the offensive line, his rib injury, or just horrible playcalling. But I’m more likely to just try to get exposure to Austin Ekeler, because he is so explosive, and gets a ton of targets and high-value touches.

As for 49ers/Chiefs and Texans/Raiders, I have more interest in those as secondary stacks. Though you can always make a case for Mahomes/Kelce. I probably just am looking at those games for pieces like Kelce, Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, Josh Jacobs, and Davante Adams. The 49ers I always struggle with, and I usually get them wrong, so not sure I’ll have a ton of exposure there.

I mentioned some players from those two games and then my favorite stacks. But the core plays to build your lineups around outside game stacks is so important. Who are your favorite core plays at RB, WR, and TE this week?

STEVE:

The Chargers’ offense has looked great the rest of the year except for the Jags game. I wouldn’t ignore Herbert and company. The volume is there, and the talent is there.

Mahomes and Kelce are always in play somewhat, but I just feel like the game will be too slow-paced. I have a bit more interest in the Raiders/Texans pieces, but mainly just the running backs Pierce and Jacobs.

Speaking of Jacobs, I think he’s my number 1 core play at RB. He’s clearly heavily involved in this offense, and he has a match-up where the Raiders could be up late in the game. Other running backs that are part of my core are Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker III, and Breece Hall. Barkley is clearly the Giants’ offense, and he figures to continually get heavily involved. This is also a match-up where the Jaguars have really been hurt by running backs, especially pass-catching backs. Barkley could even double bonus in this match-up! I’m totally on board with both rookie backs as I think they are firmly in the lead role for their teams. The price just hasn’t caught up to their talent/role yet.

At receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Williams, Ceedee Lamb, Allen Lazard, and Amari Cooper are my early core group. Chase’s upside is the best WR on the slate and I really like the match-up. Williams and the Chargers should bounce back, and I want to target this game. Lamb is very much underpriced in this match-up if Dak is back. I really think he could break this slate vs the Lions’ bad pass defense. Lazard has a great match-up vs the Commanders and I really think the Packers’ offense will try to use this game to get right. As for Cooper, the QB play is questionable, but I love the volume and think it’s a solid match-up.

Tight end is pretty simple for me this week. Mark Andrews, Gerald Everett, and Cade Otton. Andrews if I can afford to pay up, Everett if I want a decent upside at a reasonable price, and Otton for value (assuming Brate is out as expected).

MEG:

I hear what you’re saying about the Chargers, but it’s been Austin Ekeler who’s put up the monster scores that are slate-breaking scores. Herbert has yet to put up a score that would bury you if you faded him. And Mike Williams either has under 20 yards receiving or over 100 yards receiving (3 of each). That’s ultimate boom/bust play and he definitely has a ceiling, he also has a scary floor. Also, are you concerned with Keenan Allen back that it will just be split between the two of them even if Herbert does have a good day? I think I’m just going to play more Ekeler than the passing game this week.

I agree with your other core plays outside of Williams. I would also add the following as possible core plays:

RB – Ekeler, Pierce, Zeke Elliott

WR – Davante Adams, Michael Pittman, Tyler Lockett (check practice reports), and Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR values – Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs

TE – Robert Tonyan (with Cobb out), Hayden Hurts, $2500 Greg Dulcich and Cole Turner. And I always need a little exposure to Kelce

Do you like these other options for the RB/WR/TE player pool? Any big lineup construction strategies this week?

STEVE:

I think Keenan Allen coming back could help Mike Williams. Not only could it take some of the coverage focus off of him, but it should help the Chargers extend drives and get more scoring opportunities. Williams I think was already going to overtake Allen as the Alpha receiver in this offense, and I don’t see that changing.

As for some of the other plays you mentioned, I’m good with most of them. I don’t know how much I will play Davante Adams in this game. I worry about him having a big ceiling to match that price tag in a game that I think the Raiders should win easily. I also have no interest in McLaurin with the Commanders losing Wentz. The downgrade to Heinicke is bad enough, but the Packers’ passing defense is shutting down everyone not named Justin Jefferson. No QB (including Cousins and Brady) has thrown for 300 yards on them, and Jefferson is the only receiver to top 100 yards.

Probably my big lineup construction is to stay mainly with running backs $7K or below. There are a few more expensive ones I’ll play a little, but I can’t justify 2 expensive RB builds, and even the single expensive back builds mean I will have to go away from some top WR/TE options. I’m also going to mainly just stick with targeting a few teams and worry less about bring backs and double stacking. With scoring way down in the NFL, it’s less likely we will find these 42-35 type games that you had to have massive exposure to in the past. I’m just going to be looking more for the best spots based on talent, match-up, and opportunity.

MEG:

I agree with your points about scoring being down and not forcing double stacks and sometimes even bring backs. I still like correlating lineups, but this week especially, I don’t see one game I want to have too much exposure.