Early Look Week 6 Draftkings Pricing
This slate will be defined by how you play the Bills vs Chiefs game, which starts at the QB position. There are numerous other top QBs on the slate, but many are in potential blowout spots. That worked last week with Josh Allen, but it’s tough to rely upon. Options like Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, and even Lamar Jackson feel underwhelming unless you believe those games will have some back-and-forth. You can make a case for a couple of cheaper options, but you are taking a big risk if you avoid Allen and Mahomes.
Josh Allen, $8,200 & Patrick Mahomes, $8,000:
Look their combined ownership should be north of 40%, and honestly, it’s warranted. We all remember the playoff game last season, where these two QBs were both unstoppable. Their regular season didn’t have the back-and-forth fireworks, but Josh Allen still had a great game. The upside is here for either QB to put up 35-45 points, potentially doubling many other QBs. Of the two I lean toward Allen, as the Bills’ offense has been more consistent and he offers more rushing.
Kyler Murray $7,300:
If I’m going in a different direction from the Bills/Chiefs game, the Cardinals/Seahawks game is my target. Both of these teams have had some major defensive concerns this season. Murray hasn’t even played well this season, but he still is putting up 20 or more points most weeks. If he can put it together against this bad Seattle defense, he could potentially have the 30+ point explosion game we’ve seen in years past.
Geno Smith, $5,700:
On the flip side of this game, Geno Smith has played well this season. He has the Seahawks’ offense humming of late and has started to connect with Metcalf and Lockett. Smith has 3 straight games with 22.9 or more DK points. The Cards defense has some clear issues and this game could become a shootout. Smith also offers a significant savings off the Bills-Chiefs QBs.
Though this past week saw some expensive running backs pay off, I see this as a pay down week. Maybe CMC benefits from the coaching change, but that’s a high price to pay to figure that out. Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley have great floors, but you are paying for it. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are strong options, but again they have a high price and could be resting late in the game. With so many strong options under $7K, I think the focus should be in that area.
Jeff Wilson, $6,200:
Wilson is once again the lead back in a game that the 49ers are strong favorites. He will need to crack 100 and get a TD since he doesn’t really have a passing game role, but he’s a solid bet to get around 20 DK points.
James Conner, $6,100:
It’s been a rough season for Conner so far this year, but this could be his breakout game. The Seattle run defense has been absolutely atrocious this year. Conner (if healthy) could have a monster game both on the ground and through the air. He will need to see his usage go up, but this is the match-up and game script that could allow that.
Rhamondre Stevenson, $6,000:
Damien Harris is out and Stevenson should be line for a major role this week. With the Patriots not wanting to put a lot on their rookie QB, Stevenson should see plenty of carries and dump-off opportunities. The Browns run defense hasn’t looked good this season, making this an even better option.
Breece Hall, $5,800:
Hall is now getting the starting work, and has shown his big play ability for the Jets’ offense. The Packers have a strong defense on paper, but they have been weaker versus the run this season.
Kenneth Walker III, $5,400:
With Rashard Penny going on injured reserve, this is Walker’s backfield. He should get 20 touches a game and he has a strong match-up this week against the Cardinals. I expect him to be popular, but the price is so nice to help fit in some top plays.
There are a lot of top receivers in excellent match-ups this week, but can you choose them over players from the Bills-Chiefs game or the Cardinals-Seahawks game? The other issue working against players like Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, etc. is they could be in blowout games. That makes it a lot tougher for them to pay off their price tags. It will be interesting to see if some of them are strong contrarian plays given ownership.
Stefon Diggs, $8,400:
Gabe Davis was the one who destroyed Kansas City in the playoffs, but lets not forget Diggs. He is still Allen’s top target, and has 3 games with 27 or more DK points. The Chiefs secondary has been exploited by top receivers and there is little reason to think that Diggs can’t add to that trend.
Ja’Marr Chase, $7,700:
If I pivot off paying up for Diggs, Chase is probably my top target. He hasn’t put up the big numbers like Jefferson or Kupp, but the opportunity is here. His target share has been really good, and it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out with a major game. Given that Higgins could be out/limited, Chase could even see more opportunities in this game.
Gabe Davis, $6,500 & Khalil Shakir $3,700:
It’s very possible that once again we have a thin Bills receiving corps. In which case Shakir is well in play and Gabe Davis goes from being a very good play to a great play. Double-stacking Buffalo this week feels like a must.
JuJu Smith-Schuster $5,200 & Marquez Valdes-Scantling, $4,500:
The Chiefs receivers haven’t been as strong this season, but both JuJu and MVS tied Travis Kelce with 8 targets Monday night. In this game they will need to step-up in KC is going to compete in this game. Both Chiefs top receivers are underpriced given their role.
Alec Pierce, $4,300:
If you want a salary saver Alec Pierce is my top option this week. He is clearly earning Matt Ryan‘s trust, and has looked good the past few weeks. He has both big play and red zone value, and is definitely underpriced this week.
George Pickens, $4,600:
Another good cheaper receiver option is George Pickens. It’s clear the Steelers want to get him more-and-more involved, and Kenny Pickett seems to like targeting him. With the Steelers expected to be playing from behind, Pickens can get 8-12 targets this game.
Do you pay up for Kelce or stick in the mid-range area this week? This will be a major question for fantasy owners, and honestly both options are viable.
Travis Kelce, $7,800:
The Bills are typically good versus TEs, but Kelce is a special case. He is clearly Patrick Mahomes top option, especially in the red zone. He’s expensive and tough to fit in stacks, but you can’t ignore him either.
Mark Andrews, $7,000:
Andrews has been very consistent this year and is a strong option for 20+ DK points, but it’s a risk to play him over Kelce this week. He doesn’t offer a lot of savings so that could keep his ownership pretty low making him an ideal contrarian option.
Zach Ertz, $4,900:
Ertz is one of the multiple mid-tier TEs who are honestly just underpriced. He hasn’t had a 20+ point game yet this season, but the target share is there as is the red zone usage. The fact that he offers almost $3K in savings off Kelce is interesting as well.
Cade Otton, $2,900:
If you are looking for a punt play, Otton is still a strong option. He filled in nicely for Cameron Brate and could continue to see a strong role even when Brate is back healthy. His main value here though is of course his price. He doesn’t need to do much if playing him allows you to pay up at QB and WR.
Right now it’s pretty interesting as most people will want to save money and pay down this week, but there are some fantastic defenses at the top of this slate. Picking the right one will be tough, but with multiple options, it’s likely ownership is spread out among the pay up options.
Rams vs PJ Walker, sign me up. It’s an expensive play, but sometimes that is what you need if a defense can go off for 20+ points. This is definitely a situation where that is possible.
Buccaneers defense versus a team that has struggled scoring this year and a rookie QB, yeah this is another chance for a big defensive score. I don’t like this as much as the Rams, but it’s in play.
The 49ers defense has been great the past few weeks and they have another fantastic match-up this week vs a bad Falcons offense.
There aren’t really any good “pay down” options, but I like the Patriots a lot in the mid-tier. This could be a slower paced game, but New England’s defense can rush the passer and should limit big plays. This feels more like an 8-10 point option vs the upside of 20 or more, but with the savings here it could be worth it.