Take a Stand: Week 4 Plays & Fades

October 1, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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The “Take a Stand” article each week will feature players or teams that I am high or low on, yet it seems like the majority of the daily fantasy world feels the opposite. As we know in daily fantasy tournaments, if you take stands against ownership, you can use that to your benefit.

Obviously, this does apply to all chalky plays, because there is plenty of “good chalk”. But each week I also see leverage points. I certainly will not always be right. In fact, I’ll be wrong plenty, so please don’t take these stands as gospel. But when I am right, taking a stand will gain huge leverage on the field.

One of the OG/GOATs of DFS, Alvin Zeidenfeld or Al Smizzle always made the point that earlier in the season, especially weeks 1-4 is a great time to be contrarian. Taking a stand can gain massive leverage and be a huge advantage. Why is that?

We all think we know what’s going to happen based on last year’s results. But in actuality, a lot changes in the course of an offseason. Whether it’s draft picks, free agent additions/losses, positive/negative regression, coaching/scheme changes, and plenty more variables, the value of a player or team in daily fantasy from one year to the next can change. So let’s get to my Week 4 stands.

BULLISH:

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams exploded week 1 with 33.1 DK points and then has been pretty quiet the past two weeks. I know the Broncos have a good defense and great secondary, but Adams is matchup-proof. I was excited for AFC West showdowns and potential shootouts all summer, I’m not going to jump off after just a three-week sample size.

I think this game could be a sneaky shootout and I can’t believe Adams isn’t even the highest-priced receiver and is still only projected for 7.4% ownership. I will be way overweight Adams in all formats in week 4!

QB Russell Wilson Stacks

My bullish stance on Russell Wilson correlates to Davante Adams in the same game. Again, I was excited for AFC West shootouts all summer, and I still think this can be one. So I’m sticking with this game at overall low ownership.

I know Wilson and the Broncos’ offense has had a bumpy start, to say the least. He still threw for 340 yards in week 1 against his former team, so after three weeks I’m not ready to declare Russ washed. Let’s give it time to cook maybe? Russ just gives us too many opportunities for good puns.

Here is some early projected ownership for the passing side of this game that I like to shootout:

-Wilson – 1%

-Sutton – 13%

-Jeudy – 3%

Courtland Sutton will be the highest owned at 13+%. But I like this stack together and will be overweight the Broncos passing game in tournaments. Risky yes, but a high reward if this game ends up being high scoring.

BEARISH:

WR Richie James

I know Richie James is one of the only healthy receivers left. We know that chalky receivers are way riskier than chalky running backs. I’m not going to play a chalky receiver tied to QB Daniel Jones either. James is projected 25% ownership. I’ll just stick with playing a chalky RB for the Giants in Saquon Barkley and hope this offense continues to run through him.

QB Marcus Mariota

I get that outside of the Bills/Ravens game, not many quarterbacks wow us. And I get the idea to play Marcus Mariota in a high total game with his rushing upside. But Mariota is projecting to be 12.5% and is now essentially tied with Hurts for 2nd highest owned QB behind Allen.

If I’m going to play a “bad” quarterback in a great matchup, give me a barely owned Mitch Trubisky on a 10-day rest, playing at home, playing for his job, and playing the Jets’ defense. Also, love stacking options for Mitch with Diontae Johnson, Pat Friermuth, Chase Claypool, or George Pickens.

Good luck this week everyone! May variance be on your side!