Small and Mid-field Draftkings Week 3
Look Josh Allen Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins are all great plays as well and will be in my pool. I will also take some cheaper shots at Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence, but all carry some risk. This will be a week I spread out my QB play more than most. There are just too many spots where a guy can go for 35-40 or high 20s and offer enough savings to build the rest of your team up.
Patrick Mahomes, $7,400-
Given the price, Mahomes is kinda falling through the cracks this week. He just was QB 1 2 weeks ago and now no one wants to play him? That doesn’t make sense to me, and I have no problem playing Mahomes this week versus a struggling Colts defense. There are some concerns if the Colts can push back enough to keep Mahomes throwing, but Arizona didn’t do anything in Week 1, and he still had 37 DK points.
Tua Tagovailoa, $6,100-
Tua is seeing his ownership rise as I think the high total game and the fact that the Bills will be missing multiple defensive starters, are pushing people in that direction. I will still be overweight on Tua stacks this week. His price allows you to do a lot, and even if he sees 10-12% ownership, it’s probably too low. I love the weapons that he has and the creativity of Mike McDaniels’ offense.
Joe Burrow, $6,600-
It’s been a rough start for the Bengals offense this season, but this could be a real ‘get right’ game vs a bad Jets defense. I think Burrow needs to come out firing as Cincinnati can’t risk New York hanging around. Burrow is also a nice pivot of an expected chalky Joe Mixon play.
This is a tough RB slate as ownership will condense around a few cheaper options. It could even get more condensed as people won’t know what to do about the Raiders’ RB situation. Jacobs is dealing with an illness and could be a clear game-time decision. If he is ruled out, his backups could get steamed up. If he’s in, I don’t think you can trust him. Overall this is pay-down at RB week, but I still think Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon will carry strong ownership.
Dameon Pierce, $5,000-
Pierce could see his ownership jump with the Jacobs situation. That being said I’m fine eating the ownership here. He’s too cheap, with too strong of a role in a good spot. Maybe he’s 25% owned, but if he allows me to get the key top WRs, it’s not a big deal.
Miles Sanders, $5,500-
Sanders has gotten strong usage so far this year and is in a game where the Eagles are strong favorites. This is the type of game environment he can thrive in. He’s better in smaller field tournaments because you don’t need to worry about his ceiling as much.
Leonard Fournette, $6,500-
Look the ownership on Fournette could get pretty crazy, but I’m okay with being on the chalk here. Tampa simply is lacking offensive playmakers right now and the Packers are struggling versus the run. Fournette has a strong floor and a 30+ point upside in this game. Given the reduced price from the top-end guys, he also helps you there as well.
Damien Harris, $5,600-
This Baltimore-Patriots game is one I have almost no interest in, but Harris deserves a mention here. His upside is likely capped, but he should see 15-20 touches and will be one of their key red zone options. At a cheap price and a way to get off some chalky plays, Harris will be in a few of my line-ups.
The wide receiver slate this week is crazy, there are so many top guys in good spots, that it’s tough to pick who to take. Honestly, any of the top guys could go for 30+ points, so I’m going to be on a number of them, particularly in stacks. In smaller slates, though I might use some of the chalky plays a bit less.
Tyreek Hill, $7,600, and Jaylen Waddle, $6,800-
It looks like this game is starting to get steamed up, but I’m not going to go away from the Miami duo of elite WRs. This could be another week where you need to use both so I don’t have a preference here. With the Bill’s secondary banged up, I want one of these two in almost every line-up. Even if they reach 20% ownership, it still will be behind some other top guys.
A.J. Brown, $7,300-
People seem to be getting off this game outside of Jalen Hurts. I think there is a fear that Washington won’t be able to keep up, but the Commanders have more firepower than people give them credit for. Also, it might not matter as the Commander’s secondary is so bad, A.J. Brown might get there in the first half. He’s expected to be low-owned so I’m going to be in on this play.
Gabe Davis, $6,200-
Everyone loves this game, but people seem to be afraid of Gabe Davis. I know he’s coming off an injury, but I have zero issues playing Davis this week. The game environment is great and he is going to be a major target of Josh Allen. If Miami tries to overcompensate for Diggs, Davis could see a lot of favorable match-ups.
Garrett Wilson, $5,400-
Top 10 pick, coming off a 30+ point game, in an offense that is throwing the ball 40+ times a week. Still a great price and he seems to be slipping through the cracks. While the Jets receivers are rotating more than you’d like, Wilson is a key part of this offense. In a game where the Jets figure to be down once again, I look for Wilson to see 8-12 targets.
Ja’Marr Chase, $8,100-
Speaking of the Jets-Bengals game, Chase is not seeing a lot of buzz this week given all the high-priced stud receivers. This is a get-right spot for the Bengals offense and I expect Chase to see a strong target share with a couple of deep shots. If those hit, he could be the 40-point receiver of the week.
With everyone wanting to pay up at QB and WR, people are paying down at TE this week. While some of the plays like Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith Jr., and Zach Ertz are good plays, they are going to be massively owned, especially in smaller field contests. If you can get off that grouping you will be very unique.
Travis Kelce, $7,900-
I think Kelce is priced a little too high given that he has not cracked 10 targets yet this year. Only 4 WRs and 4 RBs (and Dalvin Cook is tied with him) are priced above $7,900, so it’s tough to get excited about this price tag. That being said, this is a fantastic match-up and Kelce could just absolutely smash the rest of the TEs. Due to the price, he will likely see low single-digit ownership. I think he interests me in smaller field tournaments because his floor will be strong.
Darren Waller, $5,800-
Waller is $2K less than Kelce, yet he still isn’t likely to crack 7-9% ownership (even in smaller field stuff). I like him as a pivot as well. He’s gotten good usage so far and faces just an awful Titans defense. On top of that Hunter Renfrow is out and Josh Jacobs will either miss this game or play with an illness. Waller and Adams figure to dominate the targets and should get multiple red zones looks apiece.
Dawson Knox, $4,100-
Knox hasn’t been involved as much as people expected to start the season, but that is not a reason to go away from him. This Bills offense is capable of 4-6 TDs a game, most of which will come through the passing game. Diggs and Gabe Davis will probably be the 1st and 2nd option, but Knox likely ends up as the 3rd, particularly in the Red zone. This is a high-scoring game vs a Miami Defense that couldn’t stop either Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely last week. Knox is a great way to have another piece of this game at a cheap price and lower ownership.