Take a Stand: Week 2 DFS Plays & Fades
Obviously, this does apply to all chalky plays, because there is plenty of “good chalk”. But each week I also see leverage points. I certainly will not always be right. In fact, I’ll be wrong plenty, so please don’t take these stands as gospel. But when I am right, taking a stand will gain huge leverage on the field.
One of the OG/GOATs of DFS, Alvin Zeidenfeld or Al Smizzle always made the point that earlier in the season, especially weeks 1-4 is a great time to be contrarian. Taking a stand can gain massive leverage and be a huge advantage. Why is that?
We all think we know what’s going to happen based on last year’s results. But in actuality, a lot changes in the course of an offseason. Whether it’s draft picks, free agent additions/losses, positive/negative regression, coaching/scheme changes, and plenty more variables, the value of a player or team in daily fantasy from one year to the next can change. So let’s get to my Week 2 stands.
Commanders & Lions Passing Stacks:
The Commanders vs. Lions game now sits at a 48.5 projected total. Both these offenses put up points (28 – Washington and 35 – Detroit) in Week 1. For Washington, they had the 4th highest pass rate over expectation. And it looks like they’ll let QB Carson Wentz utilize weapons in the passing game, as he threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs in week 1.
For Detroit, while Goff didn’t have the statistical day Wentz did, he also has a lot of weapons around him now with WR A’mon-Ra St. Brown, WR DJ Chark, and TE TJ Hockenson. As I mentioned before, I’m bullish on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and I think this offense has some sneaky firepower.
Most people will play the running backs in this game, Antonio Gibson and D’Andre Swift (monitor his practice reports). These are excellent plays and will be pretty high-owned, and rightfully so. I’m interested in both of these RBs in this game. With that said, I like having some lineups with the running back part of the game stack with one of the QBs in this game. I also like just the passing stacks in this game for leverage.
Here is some early projected ownership for the passing side of this game that I like to shootout:
-QB Carson Wentz – 5%
-QB Jared Gofff – 4%
-WR ASB – 8%
-WR – Curtis Samuel – 8%
-WR – Jahan Dotson – 6%
-WR Terry McLaurin – 2%
-TE Logan Thomas – 5%
QB Russell Wilson Stacks:
I think a lot of people have a bad taste in their mouth about the Denver Broncos after the Monday Night debacle full of fumbles, mistakes, and bad coaching decisions. But QB Russell Wilson still looked sharp throwing for 340 yards with a 69% completion percentage. If those 2 fumbles do not happen at the goal-line, I guarantee the narrative would be how dangerous Russ can be in Denver with those weapons.
Not only is Wilson projected sub 2% ownership, but his two main receivers are projected to be low-owned as well, especially Courtland Sutton. WR Jerry Jeudy is projected to be 15% owned, which is reasonable. But Sutton is projected to be just 8% owned.
I love the idea of double-stacking Wilson with Jeudy, Sutton, and/or TE Albert Okwuegbunam against the Texans. Obviously, you’ll get the most leverage with Sutton, but Wilson double stacks in general will be very low-owned. It would be very smart of new HC Nathaniel Hackett and Wilson to put on a show and silence any narratives from their Week 1 debacle.
Coaches I Do NOT Trust – Shanahan/McVay (Fade Henderson & Wilson Jr.)
Maybe it’s because I got burned on NFL Kickoff by playing (and betting on) RB Cam Akers. But there are certain coaches that are just hard to trust — Bill Belichick, Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay are the first that come to mind. If Darrell Henderson is going to be chalk, it is simply not a situation I trust. There are other running backs in that range that I like more like Antonio Gibson (slightly more) and Damien Harris (slightly less).
Even though Jeff Wilson Jr. SHOULD have the starting RB role with Elijah Mitchell out, this is not a situation I trust either. Shanahan could easily go with a hot hand if one of the back-ups get going. And Wilson Jr. has the potential to be vultered by both QB Trey Lance and WR Deebo Samuel near the goal-line or for carries in general.
Tom Brady & Bucs Wide Receivers:
It feels weird to ever fade Tom Brady. But as Steve mentioned, Brady is 0-4 versus the Saints since joining the Buccaneers and his yardage totals are 239, 209, 375, and 214. Brady just hasn’t looked good versus Dennis Allen’s defenses. He’s also going to be missing WR Chris Godwin and the rest of his receivers have all missed practice this week.
WR Mike Evans is projected to be high-owned and his match-up against Marshon Lattimore tilts very much in favor of Lattimore. I like the under on this game and would not be surprised to see another NFC South slugfest.
Daniel Jones & Giants Wide Receivers:
For the 2nd week in a row, I’m writing up to fade a high-owned QB, Daniel Jones. At the time of this writing, Jones is projected to be the 3rd highest-owned quarterback on the slate. On a slate that will be missing a lot of the elite QBs, I am more willing to pay down, but not to Jones.
Jones got to 18.02 fantasy points last week, but it wasn’t pretty. He only threw 21 times in total. In fact, the Giants looked pretty miserable the 1st half, and outside of RB Saquon Barkley, this is not an offense I want to attach myself to.
If Jones is going to be high-owned, then his receivers will get steamed too. No thanks, I’d much rather just eat the Barkley chalk and move on.