NFL DFS Plays For Week 13 For Smaller Field Tournaments
-Quarterback ownership seems like it will be mainly based around Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. While Tom Brady will be my most owned QB and any of those four are strong plays, I think there are four other quarterbacks to consider. Brady has underperformed in two of his last three games, while a bounce back is likely this offense has been a bit off. Jackson’s supreme floor has disappeared recently as three of his last five games he’s had under 20 fantasy points. Herbert can win a slate with a 30+ point game, or he could fail to score 15 like he did a couple weeks ago. Burrow only has one 30 point game this season, so his upside is a bit questionable.
-Cousins never sees any significant ownership, despite having a fantastic season. The Vikings have one of the higher team totals, and this is an offense with explosive playmakers. Cousins probably won’t be the top QB scorer, but he should be in the mix for the top 5.
-Carr is getting some buzz so his ownership may climb, but probably not as high as it should. This is an offense that struggles to run the ball, facing off versus a terrible passing defense. If the Raiders want to win this game, they have to go to the air. Carr hasn’t thrown for 3 TDs in a game yet this season, which has kept most of his scoring weeks in the low 20’s. This is a spot where that can change as Washington has given up the most passing TDs in the league this year.
-Murray might not even play, so keep an eye on the injury report. But if he’s back, he might be worth a look despite the high price. Murray is one of the most talented QBs in this league, and he’s facing a Bears passing defense that is missing a number of key players. There is risk here with the injury, but his ownership could be 1% or less. For a QB of that talent in this type of match-up that is incredible. If comes out and throws for 350 yards and 4 TDs he can break this slate. Don’t expect much on the ground from Murray, but he might not need to in this match-up.
-Stafford is the natural pivot at 4pm if Murray doesn’t end up playing, even if Murray plays Stafford remains a strong play himself. Stafford has 6 games over 25 DK points and has one of the most talented receiver groups in the league. The Jaguars have been better recently versus QBs in fantasy scoring, but some of that is game script. The Rams though haven’t shown that to be a factor. Some of Stafford’s biggest games have been in blowouts. While it’s possible the Rams don’t push it this game, its a worthy risk at low ownership and a little discount versus Jackson.
-This is going to be a weird week at running back as you have a ton of running backs projected at 15-30% ownership. Antonio Gibson, Eli Mitchell, Jonathan Taylor, James Connor and Joe Mixon I think are all fantastic plays in this group. Fournette is a strong leverage play as well. He’ll be high owned, but should be owned lower than the Bucs passing game. Jamaal Williams could be a fine play, but that is a lot of ownership for a back who plays on a team with such a low total. I do think there could be some major ownship shifts if Boston Scott and Darrell Henderson end up ruled out.
-Ekler is the biggest beneficiary of the chalk ownership at this point, as he might not crack 5%. He’s had 7 20+ point fantasy weeks, including 3 over 32 points. That kind of production is not far off from Taylor’s, and he gives a little price discount as well. The Chargers offense has been inconsistent this year, but Ekler is their best offensive weapon. He’s only got a single 100 yard game this season, but his catches and Red Zone usage keep him in the elite category.
-If Boston Scott is clearly ruled out, Sanders should see a spike in ownership, but it might not go as high as it should. The Jets have just been awful against the run and the Eagles are running as much as any team in the league. With Jordan Howard definitely out and Boston Scott dealing with an illness, Sanders is in prime position to be the lead back and handle a large workload. Even more appealing is Jalen Hurts is dealing with an injury, making it less likely the Eagles utilize him as much in the running game. Even if Scott ends up active, I think Sanders is a solid play especially as his ownership is going to be really low at that point.
-Montgomery’s projected ownership is higher than I expected, but I could see it starting to slide lower as people make their line-ups on Sunday. Montgomery failed on Thanksgiving and Arizona was stronger versus the run early in the season. There is some risk with this play, but I like him as a bounce back spot. It becomes even better if his ownership slides below 15% and you can get a bit of leverage. Montgomery’s workload is going to be very strong, and Arizona hasn’t been as good versus the run in recent weeks.
-Mattison is one of the many backs getting talked up this week, but there seems to be a little hesitancy in using him. While his ownership still projects over 20%, I could see it sliding down (particularly if Sanders and Sony Michel see a bump) on Sunday. A lot of analysis is focused that his price went up, but why shouldn’t it? The Lions have been horrible against the run this season, including a game earlier in the year against Mattison (30.3 DK points). Mattison should get basically all the backfield work and decent passing game usage. Sure he’s over 7K in price, but he’s well worth it. He could absolutely be a top 3 scoring back this week and someone you need in your line-up.
-This weeks ownership figures to condense around a few key players. Guys like Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp and Hunter Renfrow are strong plays that are worth eating ownership. Others are a bit more risky, but I don’t mind playing Josh Reynolds at his price or Michael Pittman.
-Evans ownership could be half as Chris Godwin‘s, in one of the best match-ups on the slate. He’s great as a solo play or as a double stack with Godwin/Gronk and Brady.
-Jefferson’s ownership is starting to creep up, but he’s always way under-owned. He’s playing a terrible Lions defense and makes for a great pivot play this week. Thielen continues to be a touchdown machine and has a great target share. Again his ownership remains very low.
-With Devante Parker back, he’s grabbing a ton of ownership, despite the fact that Waddle is coming off this best game. Parker is a good value play, but Waddle has become the alpha receiver in this offense. If his ownership remains this low, he’s a strong play.
-Higgins is carrying all the ownership this week, but both Chase and Boyd make sense if you believe this game becomes a shootout.
-Jackson’s ownership is projected to be extremely low, and he matches up well as a deep threat vs a bad WFT secondary. Jackson saw a nice snap and target bump vs the Cowboys last week, and should continue to see that type of usage as the Raiders will be without Darren Waller.
-Jefferson’s target share has been pretty consistent the last 4-5 weeks, and he has a strong match-up vs the Jags this week. His big play ability could get him to 20+ points at really low ownership.
Tight end will be interesting this week as Foster Moreau figures to garner between 25-45% of the ownership depending on the tournament. While it makes sense from a price and opportunity standpoint, that is incredible ownership given this slate. There are a number of value plays at every position so cap space isn’t as important this week. Also, plenty of tight ends are in great spots that could put up strong numbers.
-Kittle is the 2nd most expensive TE on the main slate this week and coming off a horrible game where he burned a lot of people. His ownership should be in the 5-10% range, despite the fact that the 49ers lost Deebo Samuel. Seattle has been horrid this season versus tight ends, so this is a great spot for Kittle to have a big bounce back. You do have to pay twice the price of Moreau, but he could easily be in line for 20+ DK points. If Moreau ends up with 6-10 points, this could make Kittle the play. Kittle could also give some nice leverage off Eli Mitchell chalk.
-Gronkowski is likely the 2nd most owned TE on this slate, but at likely sub 15% ownership. For a TE coming off a 20 point fantasy day without scoring a TD, he needs to be in your line-up consideration. Atlanta has generally been strong against TEs this season, but Gronkowski though can definitely be the exception given his usage.
-Two weeks ago Ertz had 28.8 DK points versus the Seahawks, now coming off the bye he could have Kyler Murray come back and no one wants to own him. The Bears have been good on the season versus tight ends, but in recent weeks that has changed. Ertz is pricey, but this match-up is very interesting for another big Ertz performance.
-Thomas came back last week and was on a bit of a snap count. Despite that snap count he was targeted 6 times, and nearly brought in a TD that was overturned on review. His price is very reasonable at $4K and his ownership is projected to be low. Considering the Raiders have struggled versus tight ends this year, Thomas has a real chance of being the top price per dollar TE on the slate.
-Conklin doesn’t have 20+ point upside like many tight ends on this list, but he’s out there nearly 100% of the snaps. His targets range from 3-7 per game, and the Lions have been bad against TEs this season. At a reduced price of $3,700 and low ownership he is a solid play option.
-If you need the Foster Moreau price, but don’t want to deal with the mega-ownership there is a clear pivot here. O’Shaughnessy is $100 less than Moreau and will come in at sub 5%. While I don’t love investing in the Jags offense, we’ve seen this Arnold/O’Shaughnessy role be effective at a low price this season. Week 1 O’Shaughnessy had 8 targets and he picked up 5 more last week after Arnold left with injury.