Week 2 NFL DFS Smaller Field Tournament Plays
This post will focus on small and medium field tournament sizes ranging between 100-5,000 entries. The focus will be on some plays that might be overlooked, or could explode to win you the tournament. We are judging these players based on Draftkings scoring and pricing, but many could be viable options on other sites as well.
-It looks like ownership will coalesce around Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Tom Brady. I think all four of those are fantastic plays, and Allen could be my number QB this week. There are a few interesting pivot options depending on your line-up build.
-Murray was brilliant in week 1, putting up the 2nd most fantasy points among QBs. He’s in a great game situation this week versus the Vikings in a potential shootout, yet somehow he projects under 10% ownership. That might creep up in smaller field, but he’s still likely the 5-7th highest owned guy. The price is up there, but he gives you a tremendous floor and ceiling in this game.
-The Seahawks offense was tremendously efficient week one and showed how much fire power this team has. Unfortunately Wilson didn’t need to do much in the 2nd half, which kept his overall fantasy score down. If the Titans keep this game close, Wilson could have a ceiling week and exceed the scores of some of the highest owned QBs.
-Cousins is typically seen as a solid season long fantasy QB, but a below average DFS play. While it’s true he’s typically not QB 1 or 2 on the week, he has shown the ability to put up 25-30+ point performances. He had 5 games last season with 25 or more points and hit 25 points on the dot week one. That is a bit misleading for box score watchers, as the officials negated a clear Justin Jefferson TD. If those 4 extra points counted he would have been 5th on Main Slate Scoring last week. Cousins is in another situation where he could be forced to throw alot and could exceed 25 DK points again. Not only does he come with low ownership, but with his salary you save quite a bit from the top guys. He might not finish 1st or 2nd in fantasy scoring, but he could in points per dollar.
-This is an odd week as chasing ownership in these small and medium fields might not be a bad call. Najee Harris and Chris Carson look like the highest owned guys, with Elliott, Ekler, Kamara and Hunt right behind them. Though projects currently believe Christian McCaffrey will be lower owned in large field tournaments, I think that could change dramatically in smaller field stuff. I think all of these are strong plays and will use them, but I do see some guys going under the radar.
-I only think Taylor is a quality play in this type of small/mid-tier tournament, as he’s not safe for cash, and doesn’t have great upside for big GPPs. Taylor got plenty of usage week one in a game where the Colts were getting blown out. I think that same game script could happen again, and his usage may even be higher. With two of the Colts top receivers potentially out, Indy will have no choice but to rely on their backs more. Taylor saw 7 targets week one and should meet or exceed that this week. He offers a savings from some of the big names and and ownership leverage from a number of other players. Don’t expect a 30 point DK game, but 20-24 points is very much doable.
-Sanders is in a similar situation as Taylor above, from a price/usage/ownership standpoint. With the Eagles facing a tougher defense this week, people will be off Sanders this week. That could be a mistake given how the Lions backs attacked the 49ers last week. While game script could turn on the Eagles this week, it was promising that Sanders still got 5 targets. Gainwell is the pass catching back, but Sanders should still get usage. I think Sanders ends up under 5% owned, and has a decent 20 point chance.
-If you want a salary saver Williams is a good option. He got 50% of the Broncos snaps last week, and faces a weak Jaguars defense this week. While Williams didn’t produce much in Week one, he’s got incredible big play ability and is priced low. His ownership is likely depressed with the Kenyan Drake and Elijah Mitchell news. He will share usage with Melvin Gordon, but in the smaller field that could be fine.
-Generally playing New England backs isn’t a great strategy on Draftkings as they spread the ball around far too much. This week though I think Harris is a nice play for small field games. He got a little working in the passing game last week, and if that continues it raises his floor by 2-5 points a week. In this match-up versus a bad NYJ team, Harris is a good bet to crack 100 yards again. If he adds in a TD, you could have a very strong score for a sub $6K running back.
-Henderson played almost every snap week one, and looked good versus a strong Bears front 7. While Michel will likely start to see a little more work, Henderson should maintain 75%+ workload this week. This figures to be another positive game script for the Rams, and Colts front 7 could be missing their best linebacker in Darius Leonard. Given the savings and ownership leverage, he’s worth a solid look this week.
-Montgomery had a great week 1 versus a tough Rams defense, and has a far easier match-up this week. Chicago has a strong offensive line and I think Montgomery could once again find himself with plenty of running room. He only had 1 target week one, but that is probably an outlier. I’d expect 4-6 targets most weeks, and he should be in there for any goalline work.
-I will be playing all the big names this week from the Chargers/Cowboys match-up. Also I’ll be playing the high owned options like Diggs, Chase and Hopkins, but I see plenty of other pivots or intriguing plays.
-I will be playing a ton of Stephon Diggs this week, but Cole Beasley is someone I want large exposure to as well. He had 14 targets week one, and won’t see either of the Dolphins Pro Bowl corners in the slot this week. I expect the Bills to be up tempo again and throw 45-55 times. Beasley should be 10+ targets again and could pay off in a big way if he can get the 100 yard bonus and/or a TD. His ownership appears to be lower than it should given the price and usage. Sign me up to get more exposure to this Bills passing attack.
-Stay with me for a second. Yes I know he only had 30 yards week one and Andy Dalton is his QB, but Robinson is too talented to ignore. He still had 11 targets week one, despite seeing plenty of Jalen Ramsey. Robinson should have a far easier time this week versus a banged up Bengals secondary. Yes Andy Dalton is still the starting QB, but Allen Robinson has dealt with bad QB play his entire career. When the match-up is good, the price is right and the ownership is low fire up Robinson in your line-ups.
-Evans was the odd man out week one, but the Falcons match-up presents a nice opportunity for a bounce-back. Everyone is on Chris Godwin (and for good reason), but Evans could be in line for a big game as well. The Falcons secondary is terrible and it’s likely 2 or 3 Bucs have strong games. Given the lower price and ownership I like taking a shot on Evans here.
-Thielen was a great fantasy play week one, and Jefferson would have been solid if he didn’t have a TD overruled against him. They both saw a good target share, and play in another game where the Vikings figure to be throwing. Despite all of that the ownership numbers for both Thielen and Jefferson are really low. Yes they are priced high, but for good reason. These two can easily return value and can help make your line-up pretty unique.
D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett–
-Lockett was one of the top fantasy plays of the week last week, but his ownership currently doesn’t seem that high. I think people are getting scared by the lack of targets to Metcalf and Lockett last week (5 apiece), but that shouldn’t be a concern. Most week Russell Wilson will have to throw more, and this offense is incredibly condensed. In this game both Metcalf and Lockett could be in the 8-12 target range. Given the match-up and talent, these are great low ownership plays.
-I love JaMarr Chase this week, but a great leverage play could be playing one of the other Bengals receivers. Joe Burrow threw fewer than 30 passes last week, and I think it’s likely that number jumps by 8-12 this week. That could leave more than enough volume for a second receiver to be viable beyond Chase. The Bears secondary is their weak point on defense and something that all three of Cincy’s receivers can exploit.
-Moore had 8 targets week one and the Saints are missing a number of key defensive players. I think Moore is a nice ownership leverage play who could see a similar workload. McCaffrey is the number one option on this team, but Moore will have some big fantasy days. Versus a depleted Saints team and single digit ownership, this is when I want to buy.
-Typically I’m not a fan of eating the chalk with tight ends, but I think this week it makes sense. I’ll be avoiding Darren Waller and George Kittle because I don’t see the price making sense for them this week. Tyler Higbee and Noah Fant feel like good cheaper TE plays with strong floors to justify the ownership. There are a couple guys who I’ll probably be a bit more on below, that I like regardless of ownership.
-Gronkowski is coming off a monster game and faces a Falcons defense that gave up 6 catches for 76 yards and a TD week 1. I have no probably going back to Gronkowski in this match-up. Down the stretch last year and into the playoffs Gronk became a TD machine for Tampa, and we saw it again week 1. His price is very reasonable and it doesn’t appear he will be over owned.
-Cook is probably my favorite per dollar TE play this week. Coming off an 8 target game, he now faces a terrible Cowboys defense at just $3,900. He’s not likely to get a 25+ point DK day, but 16-20 DK points I think is very possible in this match-up. His ownership will be 3rd or 4th highest, but honestly it should be 1st or 2nd given the situation.
-The Falcons looked awful week one, and while Pitts got 8 targets he couldn’t do anything with them. I do believe there is some risk here, that type of target share will keep me interested, even with how inefficient the Falcons were last week. Pitts ownership isn’t projecting that high, and he gives me a nice bring back option versus the Bucs. I don’t want too much exposure here, but I will be over the field. I’d also rather pay this price than try to get too cute with cheap TE plays this week.