Players Who are Undervalued According to ADP

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Check out Steve’s Underdog Fantasy Best Ball Rankings! 

*All fantasy rankings cited are through week 17 unless otherwise noted.

 

QB Dak Prescott– ADP 86.2

Despite leading the NFL in passing TDs a year ago and finishing as QB 4 in fantasy points last year, Prescott is going as QB9. His ADP is only slightly higher than it was a year ago, even though there is little to suggest he could take a major step back this season.

In fact, Prescott’s production is all the more impressive given the fact that the Cowboys were sitting starters in a number of their games. Either due to them being up big or even once when they were down, Prescott didn’t need to finish 6 games. This led him to throwing for over 800 yards and 12 more TDs in the 1st half vs the 2nd half of games.

With the Cowboys losing their Defensive coordinator and some key defensive pieces, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Prescott in more close games. In that case, his numbers have even higher ceiling potential. Not only is Prescott very safe to pay off his ADP, but he could easily get back in the top 5 QB mix.

 

QB Kirk Cousins– ADP 134.7

Cousins was QB 6 through 8 games last season before an Achilles injury knocked him out the rest of the season. Prior to last season Cousins routinely was in the QB10-13 range. Despite his history Cousins is going as QB 18, and looks like a clear-cut value.

Yes, he will no longer of Justin Jefferson to throw two, but the Falcons have a very impressive group of young weapons. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson all can be very effective weapons for Cousins. Even if he’s only back in the QB10-13 range, you can get massive value at this ADP range.

 

QB Will Levis- ADP 180.3

Last season Levis didn’t get to start until the 2nd half of the season. He produced one big spike week as well as a couple other usable games. His track record alone isn’t what makes him look like a likely value as QB 25.

Levis gets an upgrade in the offensive coaching as new HC Brian Callahan, should look to implement some of the concepts that worked in Cincinnati. In addition, Levis will see are far improved pass-catching unit, with holdovers DeAndre Hopkins and Chig Okonkwo, and newcomers Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. Add in his rushing ability, which is above average, and you have a fantasy QB who could far exceed his ADP/ranking.

 

RB Derick Henry- ADP 31.7

Henry feels like an afterthought in fantasy circles this year, despite finishing as RB 8 in a bottom-tier offense. He now moves to the Ravens where he should be the clear lead back and goalline option. Though Lamar Jackson does take some rushing opportunities on his own, he’s not a major TD vulture, like some other mobile QBs.

Henry should benefit from being in a far more efficient offense, giving him legitimate upside as a top 5 running back.

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.- ADP 38.7

Etienne finished as RB 3 on the season last year, but is now going as RB 11. There was talk that the Jaguars were going to bring in a serious number 2 back option, but that has not materialized this offseason. This should leave Etienne with still a clear heavy workload.

In addition to a pretty clear feature-back role, the Jaguars offense grossly underperformed last season. This led to a number of TD opportunities and sustained drives to disappear. This year, the Jaguars reloaded on offense, and could be poised for a breakout. In that scenario, Etienne could see additional TD chances and more total yards.

 

RB Joe Mixon– ADP 56.9

Mixon was RB 7 last year, on an underperforming and injured Bengals offense. He now goes to the Texans in a clear lead role, and is going as RB 15. This represents a clear value opportunity, as the Texans’ offense is poised to be one of the top units in the league. If Mixon can stay healthy this year, he could be in line for a top 5 finish, and should be at least top 10.

 

RB Ezekiel Elliott– ADP 128.7

It’s not easy to get too excited about Elliott, but his ADP is still not representing his potential upside. Elliott is currently going as RB 39 as the Cowboys likely lead and goalline back. He finished as RB 32, despite splitting time with Rhamondre Stevenson, and playing for the Patriots’ anemic offense last season.

In the 5 games when Stevenson got hurt through week 17, Eliott topped 10 .5 fantasy points 4 times, including a 23.5 and 16.5 point games. Two seasons ago with Dallas, while ceding a lot of work to Pollard, Eliott finished as RB 18.

Elliott is not only in a prime position to exceed his ADP, but he could blow it out of the water. It would be surprising if he doesn’t finish as a top 20 RB, and potentially could be top 15.

 

WR Mike Evans– ADP 24.3

Evans finished last year as WR 4, but is going as WR 16 in drafts. This is a massive value opportunity, as the three previous seasons he was WR 11, 9, and 9. Evans was a TD monster last year, leading the NFL in receiving TDs with 13 (tied- with Hill).

Evans has a bit more volatility in his game as he doesn’t get as many short area easy catches, but he remains a 1,000+ yard receiver with double-digit TD upside. He is very likely to be a top 10 WR that you can get at a discount.

 

WR Rashid Shaheed- ADP 119.9

Shaheed finished as WR 44 last season, but that was with him missing 2 games, and leaving another early due to injury. Overall it was a strong 2nd year for Shaheed as he topped over 700 yards and 5 TDs. He now should go into this season as the Saints’ clear number 2 WR, and he can massively outperform his WR 56 ranking.

 

WR Brandin Cooks– ADP 132.6

Cooks finished as WR 41 last year, but is going as WR 62 this season. Cooks was very touchdown-reliant last season, as he had 8 TDs on 81 targets. Though that ratio is likely unsustainable, Cooks could see a lot more targets this year. His production was extremely low at the beginning of the year as he was getting on the same page with Prescott (and some of the blowouts), but later on it really improved.

Though Cooks is the Cowboys clear cut, number 2 receiver, it won’t be surprising to see his targets go up by 30-40 this year. This could lead to a nice jump in fantasy points, and maybe put in him in the WR 25-30 range.

 

WR Darnell Mooney– ADP 150.1

Mooney broke out in a big way in 2021, with over 1,000 yards on the Bears. The last two seasons he’s been unable to replicate the success, never topping 500 yards. Some of that was due to missed time, but a lot had to do with the fact that the Bears passing game had been pretty woeful the past couple of years.

Mooney now moves on to the Falcons, and though he will be well behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts on the pecking order. He’s getting a massive upgrade at QB in Kirk Cousins. Cousins has consistently sustained multiple receivers for fantasy production, and Mooney could be a massive value on this team.

 

TE Dalton Schultz– ADP 126.4

After the top 8 or 9 TEs, it’s hard to see a lot of upside out there, but Schultz could be the exception. He finished as TE 11 despite missing 2.5 games last season, and the Texans offense could be poised for a massive breakout. Yes, he has to contend with a very talented group of receivers, but there should still be plenty of opportunities for Schultz in this offense.

He’s currently going as TE 14, but could crack the top 10 and end up somewhere in the 6-10 range. That’s pretty solid value, and it’s good to be attached to this Texans offense any way you can.

 

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