Undervalued Offenses to Target in Best Ball

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Last month, I wrote an article about NFL offenses that are on the rise, or offenses that were outside the top 10 last year but I could see making a leap into the top 10 in 2023. We of course want to be targeting top 10 offenses in yards and points in best ball, especially on Underdog Fantasy, where you need to be touchdown-hunting based on their scoring system.

I think it is also important to look for undervalued offenses or offenses that should vastly improve. Even if they don’t make it in the top 10 offensive statistical categories this season, if they make a huge leap, you could be getting a major discount on their players in best ball.

The same factors below that we identified as being a signal for a rising offense, can also help us target undervalued offenses this season.

 

Here are factors we identified as a signal to be an undervalued offense:

-Changes in coaching staff or play callers

-NFL Draft or Free Agency additions

-Growth in the offense

-Bounce back from injuries

-Redzone attempts (lower conversion rate – if improved could make them a top offense)

-Strength of schedule (based on opponent’s 2022 win % per CBS Sports)

 

Considering all these factors, here are five teams I’m targeting that I think the offense could outperform last season’s results this season and give you a massive discount in best ball.

 

Undervalued Offenses to Target:

Dallas Cowboys:

It seems incredibly odd to see the Cowboys as an undervalued offense. But outside of WR CeeDee Lamb (ADP 10) and RB Tony Pollard (ADP 21), all their other offensive skill positions go after ADP of 82, including QB Dak Prescott (ADP 98).

Dallas was a top 10 offense in yards, touchdowns, and red zone conversions last season. Yet we see a massive discount on this offense.

Some people seem to be looking at Mike McCarthy calling plays as a negative. As we discussed here, I feel these concerns are overblown. Already reports are the offense will be very similar to what was successful in prior seasons under OC Kellen Moore. Do not let that scare you off a top 10 offense.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers:

-NFL Draft or Free Agency additions – The Steelers upgraded their offensive line in a big way by adding G Isaac Seaumalo (from Eagles) and other OL depth. Then they drafted Georgia OT Broderick Jones in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. Bolstering the offensive line could pay off big for both the rushing and passing game for the Steelers.

-Growth in the offense – The 2nd season for QB Kenny Pickett and WR George Pickens could be huge to see leaps, especially with the offensive line upgrades.

-Strength of schedule (based on opponent’s 2022 win % per CBS Sports) – 8th easiest schedule this season

Outside of RB Najee Harris (ADP 38), the rest of the Steelers’ offensive weapons go after ADP of 70, including both starting receivers, Pickett and TE Pat Friermuth. A Pickett stack with two weapons is cheap any way you look at it.

 

New Orleans Saints:

-NFL Draft or Free Agency additions – Whether you’re a Derek Carr fan or not, he is a massive upgrade to the quarterback position for New Orleans.

-Strength of schedule (based on opponent’s 2022 win % per CBS Sports) – The Saints have the 2nd easiest schedule this season.

Outside of stud 2nd year WR Chris Olave (ADP 20), all Saints have an ADP of 94 or later.

 

Honorable Mention:

-Los Angeles Rams – If QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp return to full health, this could once again be a powerful offense under Sean McVay. Outside of Kupp, all other Rams are dirt cheap in terms of ADP prices in best ball.

-Washington Commanders – HOMER fan alert! But in all seriousness, if new OC Eric Beinemy can get young QB Sam Howell to be effective, then they already have WRs Terry McLaurin and RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson as solid weapons for the young signal caller. Outside of McLaurin, all Washington players are ADP of 77 or later.

 

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