Best Ball Buy Low Spots Post-NFL Draft

The more you play best ball, the more you realize it’s like the stock market. Prices (ADPs – average draft position) rise, and prices fall. You build a portfolio of your investment shares (players). And you always need to react to what the market is doing. Sometimes the market is overreacting. Other times the market is under-reacting. Both create buy low opportunities or the time to get a player at a discounted ADP.

Since the NFL Draft, there has been a lot of ADP movement on Underdog Fantasy. Some rookies have skyrocketed up the draft board, causing some non-rookies to fall. A lot were in spots where another player was drafted at the same position.

Sam Sherman posted this great thread on Twitter about the fallout and ADP movement from the NFL Draft.

https://twitter.com/Sherman_FFB/status/1656633551775838209

Fallers!

– K. Walker fears on Charbonnet rd 2 selection. Becomes a target for me in the late 4th / early 5th

– Allgeier now draftable as a cheaper handcuff play

– Targeting Jameson Williams near pick 110-120, think he still will fall slightly more

– Palmer dead as WR4 in LAC pic.twitter.com/lZjGTVhO7Z

— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) May 11, 2023

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Players I want to Buy Low NOW:

-RB Kenneth Walker (Current ADP – 46):

As you can see from Sam’s chart, Walker has fallen 14 spots since the NFL Draft because the Seahawks drafted RB Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round. The Seahawks have always seemed to use multiple backs. But Walker rushed for over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 15 games last season as a rookie. I am drafting him as the lead-back that will still have the dominant role in Seattle. I love the discount I’m getting on him in the 4th or 5th round now.

-RB Jonathan Taylor (Current ADP – 13):

With rookie RB Bijan Robinson now going in the mid-first round, that pushed down Taylor just four spots. But he’s now a 2nd round target. I don’t love Indy’s offense this year with a rookie QB in Anthony Richardson. But this was the RB that we were taking #1 or #2 overall last year. A rushing QB like Richardson may open more lanes for Taylor. So ironically, I’m not interested in Richardson, but I am interested in Taylor in the 2nd round.

-RB David Montgomery (Current ADP – 87):

A lot of people were scratching their heads when the Lions drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round. They then traded D’Andre Swift to the Eagles. So yes, there is still RB competition, but they gave Montgomery a nice contract so he will be used. He could be used the same way Jamaal Williams was last year, which was a high-value touch and TD monster. At this ADP, I’m taking Montgomery as a second or third back in some anchor RB builds or in a great target in zero RB builds.

-RB Kenneth Gainwell (ADP – 190):

Yes, the Eagles’ RB room is now a bit crowded with Swift coming over from Detroit and the signing of Rashaad Penny. But Gainwell was clutch for the Eagles in the post-season and can be used in the running or passing game (50 targets last season). So Gainwell dropping 29 spots to 190 is a good spot to grab him. Again, can be a nice zero RB target.

-WR Jameson Williams (ADP – 100):

Williams is suspended the first six games for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. He has dropped 19 spots and could drop a little further. I’m willing to target him after pick 100 for a receiver who would have been the first receiver drafted in 2022 if not for his injury in the National Championship. If I can get that kind of talent in the 9th or 10th round, it will be worth it to have him for the 2nd half of the best ball season and playoffs.

-WR Tyler Lockett (ADP – 68):

I mentioned this in my rookies’ stock watch article, but the Seahawks drafted JSN in the first round, and his ADP has skyrocketed. He’s now going 10 picks ahead of his teammate Lockett. I’m fine letting the market settle on JSN and drafting the proven commodity Lockett at a discount.

-Players being drafted too low after zero competition was drafted on their team:

The following players did not have any tight competition drafted at the same position, and in my opinion, these bell-cow running backs are being undervalued. I’m drafting all these RBs in various draft strategies when I get the opportunity:

–Nick Chubb (ADP – 21)

–Tony Pollard (ADP – 23)

–Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP – 30)

–Miles Sanders (ADP – 56)

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