The NFL preseason is a period of intense volatility for fantasy football managers. Months of analysis can be undone in a single play, causing immediate and powerful corrections to the market’s primary barometer of value, Average Draft Position (ADP). A significant injury to a key player does not simply lower their value; rather, it creates cascading effects that fundamentally alter draft strategy for everyone.
A drafter’s approach is consequently shaped by their information sources and timing. Astute managers often look beyond standard fantasy rankings to find an edge. For example, data from player prop markets on specialized platforms, which a user might explore through an offering like a Dabble promo code, often reacts to news more quickly than season-long ADP. This can provide a leading indicator of market sentiment, creating a temporary information advantage for those who understand how to interpret these shifts.
Market Reactions to Key Injuries
The 2025 preseason provided clear examples of how injuries directly influence player valuation. The most straightforward case was Texans running back Joe Mixon, whose substantial foot injury landed him on the reserve list, making him a clear “avoid at all costs” candidate. His ADP plummeted accordingly, as he is guaranteed to miss at least the first four games.
In contrast, other situations created strategic decisions for managers. A mild hamstring strain for Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson caused a minor dip in his draft stock. Perceptive managers saw this as an overreaction and a potential “buy the dip” opportunity, especially after he returned to practice. Similarly, Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III saw his value decline due to foot soreness and durability concerns, making him a risk-reward gamble for those willing to bet on his talent.
The Ripple Effect and Rising Value
An injury to a starter creates a vacuum of opportunity, especially for backup running backs. These “handcuffs” are no longer just insurance policies; they are high-upside assets who can become league-winners. The 2025 preseason elevated the status of several key backups due to the perceived risk of the starters ahead of them.
- Isaac Guerendo (49ers) His value soared due to Christian McCaffrey’s extensive injury history. Guerendo is positioned for a primary role should McCaffrey miss time.
- Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) Already a proven talent, his value is directly tied to the durability questions surrounding Kenneth Walker III.
- Trey Benson (Cardinals) He has a clear path to a lead role due to James Conner’s history of missing games, making Benson a premier late-round target.
Moreover, this effect extends to the passing game. With Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a major knee injury, 49ers tight end George Kittle and rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall are positioned to see a significant increase in targets, making them values at their current draft positions.
Strategic Drafting in a Volatile Market
This analysis provides several key takeaways for draft day. It seems that the most critical lesson is to treat ADP as a guide, not an absolute truth. A winning strategy involves creating personal rankings that account for the most current injury news, overriding consensus data that often lags behind reality.
This means being prepared to fade players with significant durability concerns while identifying undervalued assets whose stock has fallen too far. To be sure, platform-specific discrepancies also offer an advantage. A player like Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray may be a value on one platform where his ADP is lower compared to others. Ultimately, success in 2025 requires a flexible approach that balances risk assessment with a keen eye for the opportunities created by preseason chaos.