Unique options for Underdog Drafts in the late rounds: QBs and TEs

August 21, 2024

Best Ball Fantasy Football Fantasy Football

Steve Shoup

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One way to get different in Best Ball drafts is if you can hit on some late round guy(s) who not only exceeds value, but isn’t even near 100% drafted, you can really gain an edge in tournaments. For positions like QB and TE anyone who ends up under 50% owned is kind of unique, and even if they are only like 75% owned that can be pretty impressive.

Running back ideally we’d like to stay below the 50% threshold and if we can get below the 25% mark that is where we really can feel like we have a unique rostered player.

Receiver though is the position where we can really push for some unique options. While sub-50% is good, ideally we are targeting more like sub-25%, and if possible someone maybe even 5% or less. Using BBMDB.com I’m going to look at each position and identify some good targets that remain for the final couple of rounds. Taking a look at where their ownership currently stands, and what it might end up being.

Quarterbacks:

*Sam Darnold is the guy who would have been the top guy here as his ownership is currently 24%, but he will be in just about every draft moving forward and is now going more like the 14th-15th round.

Derek Carr, ADP- 205.1, Current ownership- 89%, Projected- 80-85%

So Carr isn’t as low-owned as you typically want to see QBs, but he’s seen his ADP and ownership decline steadily. Injuries to a number of his weapons and questions along the OL I think have hurt his draft stock, but most of his weapons look to be healthy to start the season. While the offensive line is a real issue, I think there is more than enough upside here.

Carr should pretty easily outplay his ADP and he has multiple intriguing stacking partners. Other QBs with his profile will be 98-100% owned, Carr might max at 85% and you get him a round or two later.

Russell Wilson, ADP- 213.7, Current ownership- 55%, Projected- 45-50%

Despite basically being guaranteed the Steelers starting QB job, Wilson’s ownership figures to be going down. He’s firmly in the 18th round, with Justin Fields still going above him. There remains a slight risk that Fields takes over the role at some point, but generally, that isn’t likely outside of injury.

Wilson could thrive in this offense that should take some downfield and outside the numbers shots to George Pickens regularly. To get a guy who typically is a top 12-15 QB, this late with declining ownership, could be an excellent way to make yourself unique.

Gardner Minshew, ADP- 212.6, Current ownership- 15%, Projected- 22-25%

Minshew has now been named the Raiders starting QB so his ownership will rise some, but I don’t expect him to be drafted everytime going forward. So while I think the extreme upside is he gets to 25%, he might not even crack 20%. Yes, there will be some risk that he gets benched at some point this season, but if he doesn’t we have a starting QB with two potentially elite weapons in Davante Adams and Brock Bowers, and a stacking partner we can get in the 18th round at sub 25%.

This could be a great way to advance in the playoffs as if an Adams or Bowers goes off and actually brings the QB with them, they are so low-owned, the combination might not be present in your pod.

Tight Ends:

Mike Gesicki, ADP- 208.8, Current ownership- 71%, Projected- 65-75%

Gesicki is an athletic TE now tied to a really good QB in Joe Burrow. Previously the Bengals haven’t prioritized the TE position, but there are two changes here. Personnel wise both Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon are gone. Coach wise there is a new offensive coordinator (though the playcaller is the same).

I think the personnel side of things is more interesting. Boyd has had one of the more outsized WR3 roles in the league the past three years, so if that normalizes, some of that could filter to the top TE. Over the last three seasons Mixon had 29 rushing TDs and 8 receiving TDs, most of that work should go to the backs, but some of those scores could end up TDs to an athletic TE in the Red zone. Despite the upside, I don’t see Gesicki being drafted in every draft going forward, and in fact his ownership could even dip some.

Colby Parkinson, ADP-199.8, Current ownership- 50%, Projected- 55-60%

So Parkinson looks like the clear-cut starter (though Davis Allen could see some usage), but at some point, Tyler Higbee will return this season. The expectation is it won’t be till late in the year, so Parkinson could get you all the way up until the playoffs, but then he might not be really that viable when it matters most.

I would build for him in line-ups with other earlier TE byes just in case, and always in 3 TE builds. There is a chance though that he just retains the starting job even after Higbee comes back. So that shouldn’t be ignored. The value here is he’s tied to a good offense and QB, unlike some other lower TEs.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, ADP- 215.2, Current ownership- 40%, Projected- 35-45%

It’s still unclear if Sanders will get the starting job this season, but he’s had the chance this camp with some injuries in front of him. He may be in a timeshare to start, but his natural talent could win out, as his competition isn’t well-established in this league.

There is real risk here as he could end up being just a part-time player, and not really fantasy relevant. If he does get the starting role though, you get a talented young TE, who should be sub-50% owned.

Zach Ertz, ADP- 214.1, Current ownership- 12%, Projected ownership- 8-15%

Ertz continues to go undrafted in most drafts, despite according to all reports being clearly the top TE in Washington (particularly the top pass-catching TE). Rookie Ben Sinnott has seen his ADP fall, but he still goes before Ertz and will end up 95% drafted compared to Ertz sub-20% (possibly sub-10%). Ertz knows OC Kliff Kingsbury, and could be a good veteran for rookie QB Jayden Daniels to rely on.

He likely is no more than a TE 3, and potentially could lose work later in the year to Sinnott, but he’s well worth the 18th round click. Especially at this low ownership, he’s making your team very unique and could at least help you advance to the playoffs with some big early weeks. He fits best if he’s covering for some early TE bye weeks (5-7 especially), which could help get some top TEs like Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, or Jake Ferguson to the playoffs.