Taking advantage of uncertain WR rooms- NFC South and West

Carolina Panthers: Diontae Johnson (ADP: 70.1), Xavier Legette (ADP 141.3), Adam Thielen (ADP: 162.4), Jonathan Mingo (ADP: 215.7)

Johnson:

The Panthers brought in Johnson this offseason via trade and he should take over as Carolina’s top offensive weapon. If the new offense can help get Bryce Young up to a good level, Johnson could be a fantastic value. He’s going as WR 42, and if healthy can blow that ranking out of the water. Expect him to be the primary target and guy who is both consistent and offers some spike week potential.

Legette:

The Panthers landed Legette with one of the final picks of the 1st round of the draft, to add a more physical presence to their WR room. Legette though is one of the more raw WR prospects in this class, and early reports make it sound like the Panthers know that and will bring him along slowly. Even with his ADP sliding some, he’s probably going way too high in drafts.

Thielen:

The Panthers were among the league’s worst offenses last season, and Thielen still finished as WR 25, and was a good fantasy asset. That’s even more impressive considering he did that on only 4 TDs, which was 20% of the team’s total offensive TDs, and about 33% of their passing TDs. Despite that he’s going as WR 73 currently.

Yes the team brought in Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, but they also should be much better on offense, particularly through the air. It’s also pretty likely that Thielen gets more snaps and targets than Legette. He might crack the top 25 WRs this year, but top 40 or 50 are very possible.

Mingo:

Mingo was extremely disappointing as a rookie and now has Johnson and Legette added to the mix above him. Barring some massive turnaround or major injuries in front of him, it’s tough to see him having much of a role here. I’m totally looking to stay away.

Analysis:

For me it’s very simple, even in a situation where the Panthers offense remains one of the league’s worst, Johnson and Thielen are primed to return value. Between the two they should get the majority of targets on the team, and neither is going high enough in that scenario. There is also some upside that this offense is more league average or better, and then their two values increase even more. Legette I would maybe consider if he slides behind Thielen in ADP, but it’s tough to take him much before hand.

Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison (ADP 13.5), Michael Wilson (ADP: 168.5), Greg Dortch (ADP: 202.2), Zay Jones (ADP: 213.1)

Harrison:

So there is no question that Harrison is the top option in this offense, and he should see a massive target share paired with a good QB. Even as a rookie, he may pay off this ADP if he can get Garrett Wilson-esque usage (140+ targets), with a far better QB. Not many rookies get that kind of target share or have an elite 1st season, but also not many rookies come in with his skill level and a high-quality QB.

Wilson:

Wilson was a solid 3rd round selection for the Cardinals last year, as in 13 games and 58 targets he had over 500 yards and 3 TDs. He seems to have the lead for the number 2 role in this offense, and while he will split some of that with Jones and Dortch, it sounds like he will be on the field a fair bit. The gap between him and Harrison is pretty massive, particularly on a team with a good QB. Though there is some risk that he ends up buried on the depth chart, it’s more than likely that he vastly outplays his WR 75 ranking.

Dortch:

Dortch is a player who gets a fair amount of hype in the offseason and in some coaches comments, but it’s unclear what his upside really could be in this offense. He’s a slot only/gadget player, who will probably at least fall behind Harrison, Trey McBride and Wilson in the pecking order. There is also a real chance that Zay Jones plays himself into a role over Dortch as well. Even if Dortch can remain the primary slot, the upside here is fairly minimal. He might give you a couple usable weeks, but he’s unlikely to be like a top 40-50 WR.

Jones:

Jones signed with the Cardinals this offseason after an injury-plagued year in Jacksonville last season. When he was healthy Jones was solid as the number 3 in Jacksonville, and has had multiple productive seasons in his career. Even if he doesn’t push Wilson for the number 2 role, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him line-up in 3 WR sets as well. His upside is higher than Dortch’s, particularly his TD equity. He’s no more than a 7th or 8th WR in the final round, but he does carry a little upside with him.

Analysis: 

Harrison is pricey and for that reason I will probably end up slightly underweight on him, but he’s not a guy I’d look to fade. Dortch feels like the trap play despite still being such a late round option. I think there are better WRs going behind him, including his teammate Jones who could be a nice 18th round value play. Michael Wilson though is kinda the forgotten man, and a guy who probably should be going 40-50 spots higher. If he comes anywhere close to being the true number 2, he could finish as WR 40 or better. Even in a split role, he can return some decent value. Overall the shocking gap between Harrison and the rest of the WRs is an area we can take advantage of. The Cards receivers are essentially being treated like the Giants, but their QB play should be way better.

Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf (ADP: 26.8), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: 76.9), Tyler Lockett (ADP: 103.9)

Metcalf:

Despite the profile of a big play, spike week WR Metcalf has become more of a consistent strong floor play type player these past two years. He’s been a top 20 WR both seasons and has had that distinction due to scoring 10+ points (in .5 point ppr) in 21 of 33 weeks. Unfortunately, only two of those games crossed the 20-point threshold. The hope is that this season, with a new offensive coordinator and hopefully a healthier and improved Geno Smith, he can add some upside to his consistency. If so then I think you are getting a value at this spot. If he remains the same receiver he has been for the past two seasons, he’s still worth a selection, but understand he’s more likely to be your 3rd WR or Flex in scoring most weeks.

Smith-Njigba:

Considering he came into the season nursing an injury, JSN had a pretty good rookie season with 63 catches, 600+ yards and 4 TDs. Even with the down passing season from Geno Smith, Smith-Njigba was effective as the third option on the team. He’s likely to have more fantasy relevance this season, especially in what is expected to be a more pass friendly offense. The big question though is will he leap-frog Tyler Lockett as the number 2 option on this team. If he doesn’t then he may still be a solid fantasy asset, but not worth this ADP.

Lockett:

Lockett remains one of the better fantasy bets and values out there. From 2018-2022 Lockett was a top 15 WR every year in .5 ppr. Last year in probably the worst passing season for the Seahawks in that time, he fell to WR 33 (T-42 in ppg), but he’s going as WR 52 currently. People will point to either his age or the addition of JSN, but his targets and catches were very similar to his previous production. His yards per catch were a bit down, but he also had the fewest TDs he’s had in that time frame. If his usage remains the same, his TDs could go up to the 8-10 range again, which would help vault him up the WR rankings. Not only could he beat out JSN, but there are years where he’s beaten out Metcalf as the top fantasy WR on the team.

Analysis: 

With the expectation that this passing attack will improve with the new OC and hopefully a healthier OL, both Metcalf and Lockett are primed to be both safe picks, and have pretty big upsides. JSN could still pay off in a scenario where the offense really clicks this year, but the risk is higher. Also no matter what there is a real chance he remains behind Lockett in the pecking order, which means even if he pays off, you would be better off waiting 2.5 rounds for Lockett. I’ll draft all three, but Metcalf and Lockett are the priorities here.