Week 16 Underdog Battle Royale Rankings

Quarterback:

1. Dak Prescott

2. Jared Goff

3. Tua Tagovailoa

4. Justin Fields

5. Trevor Lawrence*

6. Baker Mayfield

Sleepers: Geno Smith, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Joe Flacco, Nick Mullens, Gardner Minshew

QB is getting thin with the injuries piling up and we have even a couple to watch this week. Right now, I expect Lawrence to get cleared and Geno Smith to play. If those don’t happen, move everyone else up.

At the top, I think Dak, Goff, and Tua are far better options than Fields. I understand that he’s playing the Cardinals, but Fields hasn’t had a massive ceiling game since coming back from injury, so even if he does get 25ish points, he’s likely not separating you. What he can do is hurt you if there is another 15 points or under week.

We didn’t see it last week in the Cowboys-Bills match-up, but this Miami vs Dallas game has obvious shootout potential. Sign me up for both starting QBs in that scenario. Goff is coming off his best game, and they might turn to him again to throw the ball against a tough Vikings run defense.

Lawrence might not play with a concussion, but if he does I want him vs this bad Buccaneers secondary. We’ve seen multiple QBs have some of their best weeks against them this season. And you can get Lawrence late. Just make sure you have backups selected just in case.

Running backs:

1. Rachaad White

2. Breece Hall

3. Raheem Mostert

4. Bijan Robinson

5. Tony Pollard

6. Jahmyr Gibbs

7. Ty Chandler

8. Kenneth Walker

9. Aaron Jones

10. Travis Etienne Jr.

11. Jonathan Taylor

12. De’Von Achane

Sleepers: David Montgomery, James Conner, Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, Devin Singletary, Jerome Ford

Pretty good week for RBs, as I think it’s easy to go deep on this list finding viable FLEX running backs. You can even wait and stack-up your other positions first, and still feel good about the two backs that you end up with.

At the top though White, Hall and Robinson have amazing match-ups, with White having the benefit of also being used most effectively. Mostert has a much tougher match-up and could split some work, but he’s also a part of one of the top offenses and gets so much work inside the RZ.

Pollard, Gibbs, and Chandler all look like good plays as well. Pollard still hasn’t had a true elite game, but historically we know its in his range of outcomes. Gibbs has been running hot on TDs lately, so I think there is some risk here vs a tough Vikings run defense. Still, he’s a good back, and worth a shot. Chandler might have Mattison back on the field, but he probably has done enough to take over the lead duties on this team.

Going deeper on this list right now a couple of my favorite plays are Montgomery, Conner, and Henry. None will be anywhere near 100% drafted. All have 2 TD upside, and still the ability to put up big yardage totals as well.

Wide Receivers:

1. CeeDee Lamb

2. Tyreek Hill

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown

4. Mike Evans

5. DK Metcalf

6. Justin Jefferson

7. Calvin Ridley

8. DJ Moore

9. Jordan Addison

10. Amari Cooper

11. Michael Pittman Jr.

12. Jaylen Waddle

13. Chris Godwin

14. Drake London

15. Brandin Cooks

16. Tyler Lockett

17. DeAndre Hopkins

18. Garrett Wilson

Sleepers: Nico Collins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed/Dontayvion Wicks, Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Adam Thielen, Noah Brown, Curtis Samuel

A lot of unknowns at QB and WR make this a challenging slate to figure out how to value these guys properly. I think the top 3 are great and it really doesn’t matter the order you take them.

After those three I like going to Evans and DK Metcalf as my next two receivers. It’s been a couple of weeks since Evans has really exploded, but we know he has that ability, and the Jags secondary has some clear issues. Metcalf has a great match-up here and it sounds like Geno Smith is coming back. I’d expect the pass volume for Seattle to increase in that match-up.

The next 6 receivers are strong, but there are some reasons why they could fail. Namely questionable QB play. Ridley is potentially very interesting if Lawrence is cleared. I would probably put him 4th overall in that case, so you are getting some value. Jefferson remains an elite talent, and could explode at any time.

As for the rest, it gets a little thin this week. A lot of 2nd receivers in just average spots or with bad QB play. Also, some injuries to watch. Honestly not a huge difference between the bottom and many of the sleepers. I won’t likely be looking for my Flex from WR, and will try to ensure I get two of the top 12-14 guys every time.

Tight Ends:

1. Sam LaPorta

2. David Njoku

3. Trey McBride

4. Evan Engram

5. T.J. Hockenson

6. Jake Ferguson

Sleepers: Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet, Tucker Kraft/Luke Musgrave, Dalton Schultz

Tight end this week is stronger than at first glance as I think you can make a good case for any of these top six. LaPorta is coming off a monster week and is probably the most all-around talented TE, but that is a team with a lot of weapons.

Njoku and McBride have seen an incredible target share in recent weeks, and are arguably the top options on their team currently. I do worry about McBride’s general TD odds given the state of the Cardinals, but the match-up is solid.

Engram could end up with a back-up QB, but that might not be a terrible thing for him. When Beathard played for Lawrence a couple weeks ago, Engram got peppered with targets. Now Zay Jones might be out as well, which could lead to even more looks for Engram.

From a talent standpoint Hockenson has the case to be number 1, but he’s dealing with a tougher match-up, a back-up QB, and two top WRs eating into his workload. Honestly, I would probably prefer Ferguson down low, just from the chance that the Cowboys have more TD looks and he’s paired with Dak.

You can go the sleeper route this week, but I’ll probably stay away typically. I don’t see any of these guys outscoring the majority of the top 6. Pitts maybe with the QB change, but it feels thin.