Point/Counterpoint: Week 6 DraftKings Strategies

October 13, 2022

Daily Fantasy

Megan Shoup

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By Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup:

Every week of the season for daily fantasy brings new debates about core plays, fades, game stacks, and more. For fantasy purposes, it is best to read about both sides of the argument and decide which side, data, and analysis YOU agree with.

For the NFL season, our series of Point/Counterpoint will be a back-and-forth discussion between siblings Megan Shoup and Steve Shoup about the slate strategy, stacks, core plays, and fades for that week.

So let’s get to Week 6 strategy talk!

MEG:

Week 6 is interesting because we have the marquee match-up and rematch of perhaps the best NFL Playoff game in history between the Bills and the Chiefs. The point total currently sits at 53.5. The next closest game is the Cardinals/Seahawks at 51.5 and all other games are not close in terms of projected points.

I think I’m going to play a lot more Early Only (more on that in another short-slate article this week) to avoid decisions on this game and to hedge. Then for the Main Classic slate, I will go ahead and overstack this game. I think it makes sense to either avoid it or overstack the Bills/Chiefs game, as opposed to just playing a player or two from this game in the Classic slate.

How are you handling the Bills/Chiefs game?

STEVE:

I just don’t think you can really get away from this game. You need to have some pieces of it and I’m okay with trying to get overweight on Allen and Mahomes. They might end up 40% combined, but that could way too low. The other issue is so many other good QBs that are on this slate are in games that could get out of control quickly.

We just saw Allen tear apart the Steelers in a blowout, but if Brady and the Bucs blowout Pittsburgh this week do you really think he will put up 300 and 4 TDs before halftime? The same goes for Cousins, Stafford, and a couple other options. I don’t like the game script for Lamar, though as we saw vs New England he should always be in consideration. I think the same is true for Joe Burrow, as we have to hope at some point they stop running Joe Mixon into the line 20 times a game.

The one real pivot game for me is the Cardinals vs Seahawks. Both defenses have struggled this year and each offense has the potential to go off. On the Seattle side, Geno Smith has been playing really well the past few weeks. He’s got a pair of great receivers to stack him with in Metcalf and Lockett. Kyler on the other hand hasn’t looked good for 4 quarters this year, but he’s still producing around 20+ DK points. If he can put it together, he has the upside to match the Allen and Mahomes this week.

MEG:

We are in total agreement about being overweight on Allen and Mahomes and those game stacks. But I think you make a good point that Burrow will come in with next to no ownership, as will Chase. I do have a little interest in Brady and Jackson, but will probably use them more in Early only lineups.

I agree the best game if you want to pivot off the ownership to is Cardinals vs. Seahawks and both those QBs are in play.

So now that we’ve covered team or game stacks, who are your core plays at RB, WR, and TE outside of these game stacks? As we said, we definitely want a lot of exposure to Bills and Chiefs in general, but what are your other core plays?

STEVE:

So for me, I am going to typically stay in the under $7K range at running back. Jeff Wilson, Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Kenneth Walker III are my top options. I also do like James Conner here as I think the match-up is very favorable. If the Cardinals don’t get behind early he could really rack up some carries in this game. (Check Conner’s injury status)

At receiver, I love Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson, but they are going to be tough to spend up for. I also like Mike Evans/Chris Godwin and Ja’Marr Chase given their match-ups. Of these Chase will probably be the one I play the most, especially if Higgins appears limited or out. For salary savers I really like George Pickens and Alec Pierce. Both rookies have developed strong roles and are both sub $5K.

At TE, I will mainly play Zach Ertz, Tyler Higbee, and Hayden Hurst. I’ll pay up for Kelce some, but that is it. If Cameron Brate is out again, I think Cade Otton is worth going back to. There are numerous other solid TEs, but I don’t really see the need to spread my ownership.

How about you, what players will be in your core?

MEG:

I totally agree with your core plays and very in-line with what I have written down so far. For RB, I’ll add Mostert, though the QB situation has me a bit nervous, but he is the lead back in Miami at still a cheap price. And if I’m spending up a little at RB, I like Saquon Barkley and Leonard Fournetter are my two favorites.

Most of my receivers will be in my game stacks or mini-stacks. For instance, maybe I have a Bills/Chiefs stack with a Tyler Lockett and Marquise Brown min-stack. Love the value receivers you mentioned. You could run a George Pickens/Leonard Fournette or Pickens/Mike Evans mini-stacks as well.

Those are my tight ends too. I’ll add Mark Andrews, if I do some Lamar Jackson in early only. Love going back to Hayden Hurst as a value TE. The only other value TEs other than Hurst and Otten would be probably Robert Tonyan for me.

Instead of talking fades, let’s talk about what percent you are running a Chiefs/Bills game stack? And do you like the idea of incorporating mini-stacks within those stacks if possible?

STEVE:

I’m going to be overweight on this game, and will probably look to have 75% of my lineups with either Allen or Mahomes at the helm. That I know seems like too much, but I want to make sure I’m covering multiple bases with these builds. If this game goes south I will have a bad week. That is risky, but I would rather bet on two of the best QBs in the NFL and two of the best-coached teams.

One thing I will do to protect myself if this game fails for some reason, is to have some builds that just outright fade the game. While it is unlikely, we did see the Dolphins-Bills game fail a couple of weeks ago. That not only ruined my Allen or Tua line-ups, but my exposure to guys like Hill, Diggs, Davis, etc. ruined a few other line-ups for me as well.

If there is a mini-stack that makes sense I will happily do it in my builds. Like I said I wouldn’t mind getting some pieces of Seattle and Arizona. Maybe a Kenneth Walker-Zach Ertz mini-stack. Also, maybe the Colts-Jags round 2 battle. Go back to the Christian Kirk well, and hope Alec Pierce works as the bring back.

MEG:

I’m in agreement all the way. And my biggest hedge off the Bills/Chiefs game will be playing more Early only slate contests and maybe hedging in the Afternoon slate. More on that in a short-slate strategy article this week!