Favorite NFL Futures Bets: NFC East
I will be doing a series on all 8 NFL divisions and targeting the NFL Futures Bets that I like. I’m not going to bet on every team. I am looking for value in the bet and picking my spots for bets I like. After reviewing offseason moves, NFL Draft picks, Strength of Schedule, and more, these are the bets I like for the NFC East.
NOTES:
-Current Win Totals are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Obviously, shop around for the best lines. I used the same Sportsbook for consistency.
-The NFL Strength of Schedule – see the full list and all the details here.
Dallas Cowboys
Current Win Total: 10.5 (OVER +105 / UNDER -130)
Strength of Schedule: T-31
Additions: WR James Washington, LB Anthony Barr, Edge Dante Fowler
Departures: WR Amari Cooper, WR Cedrick Wilson, TE Blake Jarwin, OT La’el Collins, G Connor Williams, Edge Randy Gregory, LB Keanu Neal
Draft: OT Tyler Smith, Edge Sam Williams, WR Jalen Tolbert, TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB DaRon Bland, LB Damone Clark, DL John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper
My Favorite Bets:
-OVER 10.5 wins (+105)
Reasons Why?
At the time of writing this article, the Cowboys starting LT Tyron Smith suffered a torn hamstring injury that will keep him out until at least December. That is a big blow to the Cowboys, and they may need 1st round pick, OT Tyler Smith, to step into the role immediately. However, I’m still betting on the talent of their skill positions of offense and the leadership of QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR CeeDee Lamb, and TE Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys will need Michah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence to create the kind of pressure on defense they did last season.
What makes the bet the most attractive is the division the Cowboys play in and their strength of schedule. The Cowboys are tied with Washington for the easiest schedule (per CBS Sports). Combine the easiest schedule with plus odds and I’m sold for the Over here.
New York Giants
Current Win Total: 7.5 (OVER +125 / UNDER -145)
Strength of Schedule: 29th
Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Matt Breida, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, G Mark Glowinski, G Jon Feliciano
Departures: RB Devontae Booker, TE Evan Engram, TE Kyle Rudolph, OT Nate Solder, G Will Hernandez, C Billy Price, Edge Lorenzo Carter, DT Austin Johnson, CB Keion Crossen, S Logan Ryan, S Jabrill Peppers, CB James Bradberry
Draft: Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux, OT Evan Neal, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, G Joshua Ezeudu, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, S Dane Belton, LB Micah McFadden, DL D.J. Davidson, G Marcus McKethan, LB Darrian Beavers
My Favorite Bets:
-UNDER 7.5 wins (-145)
Reasons Why?
Much like the Chicago Bears, the Giants have a new general manager and a new head coach in Brian Daboll. The expectations are high for Daboll, and while I think the Giants made a great hire and he will be successful long-term, I don’t think they should expect much in year one. Like the Bears, the Giants are rebuilding. They are giving one last effort to see if QB Daniel Jones can be their starting quarterback. While fantasy analysts and Giants fans hope that Daboll can unlock Jones’ potential, I am very skeptical.
The Giants had a strong draft and are continuing to strengthen the offensive line. They still have a stud RB in Saquon Barkley. But I don’t think that is enough. The defense is very weak, as both the Giants’ front 7 and secondary rank in the bottom quarter of the league per Sharp Football Analysis. Even with an easy schedule, I don’t see how this rebuilding team puts together 8 wins. Give me the Under here.
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Win Total: 9.5 (OVER -130 / UNDER +110)
Strength of Schedule: 30th
Additions: WR Zach Pascal, Edge/LB Haason Reddick, CB James Bradberry, S Jaquiski Tartt, LB Kyzir White, WR A.J. Brown
Departures: LB Alex Singleton, CB Steven Nelson
Draft: DL Jordan Davis, C Cameron Jurgens, LB Nakobe Dean, LB Kyron Johnson, TE Grant Calcaterra
My Favorite Bets:
-None
Reasons Why?
Most bettors are hammering the over for the Eagles. And I’ve seen bettors on Twitter discuss betting on Eagles’ futures everything from winning the NFC East to winning the Super Bowl. Let me lay out the two cases and explain why I’m just going to pass on this bet.
The Bull Case:
-The addition of WR AJ Brown
-The additions via free agency and the 2022 NFL Draft investing in the defense
-The Eagles’ offensive line ranks 2nd per Sharp Football Analysis and their defensive front 7 ranks 4th, making them very strong in the trenches
-Several analysts believe that year 3 for QB Jalen Hurts with the addition of Brown will unlock the passing game on top of his dual-thread ability.
-Like the rest of the NFC East, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL
The Bear Case:
-The Eagles were 0-6 against playoff teams last year. Their performance in the playoffs against the Buccaneers showed they did not belong there.
-Even with the strong offensive line, improved defense, and addition of AJ Brown, they do need the right arm of QB Jalen Hurts to be much more efficient. Yes, he’s a fantasy asset when he adds 10 rushing TDs, as he did in 2021. But he had the 2nd worst completion percentage (61.3%) and was tied for the 3rd worst TD ratio (3.7).
The Eagles were much more successful when they were run-first last year, so it will be interesting to see how this offense plays out now that they added AJ Brown. I am skeptical that the addition of AJ Brown will unlock Hurts’ passing upside and potential. We will have more articles and content to support this stance on Hurts, but for now, I will say I’m not a believer that Hurts’ is the Eagles QB of the future.
Most teams’ success is heavily invested in the quarterback. At -130, I have no interest in taking that risk on the Over. But because of the other strengths the Eagles have on this team and the Eagles’ easy schedule, I don’t feel confident in the Under either. So I’ll just pass.
Washington Commanders
Current Win Total: 8.5 (OVER +145 / UNDER -170)
Strength of Schedule: T-31
Additions: QB Carson Wentz, G Andrew Norwell, G Trai Turner
Departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, G Brandon Scherff, G Ereck Flowers, DT Matt Ioannidis, DT Tim Settle, S Landon Collins
Draft: WR Jahan Dotson, DL Phidarian Mathis, RB Brian Robinson, S Percy Butler, QB Sam Howell, TE Cole Turner, G Chris Paul, CB Christian Holmes
My Favorite Bets:
-OVER 8.5 wins (+145)
-HOMER FAN ALERT:
-To Make Playoffs (+152)
-To Win 10 Games (+230)
Reasons Why?
There are many analysts that think Carson Wentz is already washed up. Maybe this is a homer take, but let’s see if the change to his third team unlocks the upside of this 2nd overall pick. Whether people like Wentz or not, he is the best quarterback Washington has had since Kirk Cousins left after the 2017 season. As I’ve mentioned earlier this summer, I think the upgrade of QB Carson Wentz alone adds 2-3 wins. While QB Taylor Heinicke showed he can be a solid NFL backup, his stats show that he is not a capable long-term starter. Heinicke had a Quarterback Rating of 85.9, ranking 25th in the NFL last season. Wentz ranked 13th with a rating of 94.6. Wentz was also ranked 11th in TD percentage and had the 3rd lowest interception percentage last season. Conversely, Heinicke ranked 21st in TD percentage and 28th in interception percentage.
Even though the Commanders lost guards Brandon Scherff and Ereck Flowers in free agency, they balanced it by getting guards Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner. Their offensive line ranks 12th and the defensive front 7 ranks 10th per Sharp Football Analysis.
Tied for the easiest schedule in the NFL (per CBS Sports), look for Washington to grab the last playoff spot in the NFC with 10 wins and give me the Over. In fact, give me the extra juice with Win 10 Games and Make the Playoffs bets on FanDuel Sportsbook.
What do you think of my NFC East bets? Will you be tailing any of these bets with me?
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