Trades in the simulator use the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart — the same system NFL front offices have referenced since the 1990s. Every draft pick has a numerical point value, and a trade package must roughly match the target pick's value to be accepted.
Core Idea
When you propose a trade, the simulator:
- Sums the chart value of the picks you're sending
- Sums the chart value of the picks you're receiving
- Computes a delta and runs it through a sigmoid acceptance curve weighted by team need
Send 100+ extra points and acceptance probability climbs steeply. Send less than fair value and the offer is flat-out rejected.
Why a Lowball Offer Will Always Fail
The acceptance curve is asymmetric. Slight overpayment is forgiven; underpayment is punished. This mirrors real NFL behavior — GMs rarely accept a trade where they're losing chart value just because the package "looks" reasonable.
Multi-Pick Packages
Single-pick swaps are deterministic — the better pick by chart value always wins, no randomness involved. Multi-pick packages introduce variance because the receiving team has to weigh roster construction (do they want quantity vs. quality of picks?) on top of pure chart value.
Tips
- Target teams 3–16 picks behind you. That range produces the most realistic offers.
- Include a future pick. The simulator values future picks at ~50% of their current-year equivalent — a great way to round up a package.
- Trade BEFORE the round starts. Once picks start flying, the player you wanted may be gone.