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Busting the Monday night underdog myth in football

Steve Shoup

The Monday night underdog is by far the oldest myth associated with the game of football and NFL till date. In fact, its prevalence goes as far back as the emergence of the NFL betting activity itself. This myth used to be extremely popular during the 70s and the 80s era, and was counted amongst the most lucrative betting strategies.


It has always been conventionally believed that any underdog playing in a Monday night football game would emerge a winner. Even today you can see a great number of football bettors availing opportunities like Boylesports free bets offers and placing bets on Monday night underdogs.


Actually, this myth is more of an urban legend than something based on hard facts, keeping a tab on the latest NFL happenings. Ask any NFL betting enthusiast and you’d be told that getting behind an underdog on a Monday evening game is a sure-shot winner!


Its origins

This myth essentially originated from the fact that majority of such matches are played in home settings. Many betting systems and football betting prediction experts/services encourage getting behind teams playing on home surface, as it offers them a distinct advantage. Although you might be inclined to believe this myth considering such justification, statistical studies have proven that this myth is actually far from being true. Just like all similar myths, this one is also about a few random successes rather than some solid betting system.


One of the primary reasons why this myth shouldn’t be followed blindly is because a large number of bookmakers create their odds after taking this popular belief into account. Majority of the underdogs playing at home are handicapped by a minimum 2 points. This does away with any benefit that might be available because of such belief.


Statistical analysis has also proven that a home underdog team normally follows the point spread almost 40% to 45% of the times. If you look at a fairly large sample, you’d notice that favourites have a higher percentage chance of winning the game than the underdogs. This analysis itself busts the Monday night underdog myth.


Furthermore, the success witnessed by this myth during the 70s and the 80s era was probably more a matter of luck than anything else. It’s winning rate has constantly been in the 67-57 range post the mid-80s. It’s not a significant figure at all to categorise it as a sure-shot winning strategy.



Despite the fact that experts have repeatedly proven (through real-life examples) Monday night football myth being nothing more than an age-old legend, without any substance to it, it won’t be very easy to dislodge this belief from the sensibilities of average football bettors. Just like chicken wings, Monday night football myth is deeply ingrained in the psyche of most football betting enthusiasts! Although it no longer is the kind of money-minting machine it used to be during the 70s, a large number of football betting veterans continue placing their hard-earned money on underdogs in every Monday night football game.



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