Favorite NFL Futures: AFC West
I will be doing a series on all 8 NFL divisions and targeting the NFL Futures Bets that I like. I’m not going to bet on every team. I am looking for value in the bet and picking my spots for bets I like. After reviewing offseason moves, NFL Draft picks, Strength of Schedule, and more, these are the bets I like for the AFC West.
NOTES:
-Current Win Totals are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Obviously, shop around for the best lines. I used the same Sportsbook for consistency.
-The NFL Strength of Schedule – see the full list and all the details here.
Denver Broncos
Current Win Total: 9.5 wins (OVER -135 / UNDER +115)
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Josh Johnson, Edge Randy Gregory, DT D.J. Jones, LB Alex Singleton
Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Noah Fant, OT Bobby Massie, Edge Shelby Harris, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Bryce Callahan
Draft: Edge Nik Bonitto, TE Greg Dulcich, CB Damarri Mathis, Edge Eyimora Uwazurike, S Delarrin Turner-Yell, WR Montrell Washington, C Luke Wattenberg, DL Matt Henningsen, CB Faion Hicks, Wisconsin
My Favorite Bets:
-Over 9.5 wins -135
Reasons Why?
The massive upgrade at QB to Russell Wilson combined with the strong group at the skill positions and a new HC in Nathaniel Hackett that seems eager to play to Wilson’s strengths, makes the over bet here very easy for me.
Kansas City Chiefs
Current Win Total: 10.5 wins (OVER -115 / UNDER -105)
Strength of Schedule: T-5
Additions: RB Ronald Jones, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Corey Coleman, OT Geron Christian, S Justin Reid, S Deon Bush
Departures: RB Darrel Williams, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Byron Pringle, WR Demarcus Robinson, Edge Melvin Ingram, DT Jarran Reed, CB Charvarius Ward, CB Mike Hughes, S Tyrann Mathieu
Draft: CB Trent McDuffie, Edge George Karlaftis, WR Skyy Moore, S Bryan Cook, LB Leo Chenal, CB Joshua Williams, G Darian Kinnard, CB Jaylen Watson, RB Isaih Pecheco, S Nazeeh Johnson
My Favorite Bets:
-None
Reasons Why?
Just like it was odd not to bet on Aaron Rodgers, it feels strange to pass on QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid, who have been dominating the AFC West and AFC the last few years. But this division is the toughest in football and the Chiefs do draw the 5th toughest schedule. And we didn’t even mention the loss of WR Tyreek Hill yet. What this bet comes down to for me, is I like another team to win this division (see below), and I can’t bet the over. But I’m also not going to bet against Mahomes and Reid and bet the under either.
Las Vegas Raiders
Current Win Total: 8.5 wins (OVER -115 / UNDER -105)
Strength of Schedule: T-7
Additions: RB Brandon Bolden, RB Ameer Abdullah, FB Jacob Johnson, WR Davante Adams, WR Demarcus Robinson, TE Jacob Hollister, Edge Chandler Jones, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Vernon Butler, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Anthony Averett
Departures: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Zay Jones, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Cory Littleton, CB Casey Hayward, CB Brandon Facyson
Draft: G Dylan Parham, RB Zamir White, DL Neil Farrell, DL Matthew Butler, OT Thayer Munford, RB Brittain Brown
My Favorite Bets:
-None
Reasons Why?
The Raiders are tricky. There is a lot I like about this team, especially with the addition of WR Davante Adams. But they do play in the toughest division in the NFL. If they were in probably any other division, I would jump on this over. So I’m just going to pass on this bet.
LA Chargers
Current Win Total: 10 wins (OVER -140/ UNDER +120)
Strength of Schedule: 10th
Additions: TE Gerald Everett, Edge Khalil Mack, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT Austin Johnson, CB J.C. Jackson, LS Josh Harris, P J.K. Scott
Departures: RB Justin Jackson, TE Jared Cook, OT Bryan Bulaga, Edge Uchenna Nwosu, DT Linval Joseph, DT Justin Jones, CB Chris Harris
Draft: G Zion Johnson, S JT Woods, RB Isaiah Spiller, DL Otito Ogbonnia, G Jamaree Salyer, CB Ja’Sir Taylor, CB Deane Leonard, FB Zander Horvath
My Favorite Bets:
-Over 10 wins -140
-To win the AFC West +220
Reasons Why?
I love the Chargers this season. I think QB Justin Herbert is the QB we should be talking about the 3rd year leap (not QB Jalen Hurts). Herbert was already QB2 in fantasy football last season. But I still think he is very much ascending, plays behind a top 10 offensive line per Sharp Football Analysis, and has top-tier weapons. The Chargers had the league’s 29th ranked defense in points allowed in 2021. Now they added Edge Khalil Mack and CB J.C. Jackson and look to put Herbert and the offense in much better spots.
Even in this uber-competitive division, I like the Chargers to win the AFC West at +220, which will definitely take over 10 wins -140 in this division.
What do you think of my AFC West bets? Will you be tailing any of these bets with me?
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