Favorite NFL Futures: AFC South


I will be doing a series on all 8 NFL divisions and targeting the NFL Futures Bets that I like. I’m not going to bet on every team. I am looking for value in the bet and picking my spots for bets I like. After reviewing offseason moves, NFL Draft picks, Strength of Schedule, and more, these are the bets I like for the AFC South.

 

NOTES:

-Current Win Totals are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Obviously, shop around for the best lines. I used the same Sportsbook for consistency.

-The NFL Strength of Schedule – see the full list and all the details here.

 

Houston Texans

Current Win Total:   4.5 wins (OVER -120 / UNDER +100)

Strength of Schedule:  19th

Additions: QB Kyle Allen, RB Dare Ogunbowale, FB Andy Janovich, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G A.J. Cann, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB Blake Cashman

Departures: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Tyrod Taylor, OT Geron Christian, Edge Jacob Martin, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Justin Reid, S A.J. Moore

Draft:  CB Derek Stingley Jr., G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, WR John Metchie, LB Christian Harris, RB Dameon Pierce, DL Thomas Booker, TE Teagan Quitoriano, OT Austin Deculus

My Favorite Bets:

-None

Reasons Why?

This total at 4.5 wins is too low for me to bet the under and I just do not feel confident that new HC Lovie Smith is going to get this team with QB Davis Mills still at the helm to 5 wins. So I’m going to pass on this bet.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Current Win Total:  9.5 wins (OVER -160 / UNDER +135)

Strength of Schedule:  T-26

Additions: QB Matt Ryan, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, CB Brandon Facyson

Departures: QB Carson Wentz, RB Jordan Wilkins, T.Y. Hilton, WR Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle, G Mark Glowinski, OT Eric Fisher, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Xavier Rhodes, S George Odum

Draft:  WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, OT Bernhard Raimann, S Nick Cross, DL Eric Johnson, TE Andrew Ogletree, DL Curtis Brooks, S Rodney Thomas

My Favorite Bets:

-Over 9.5 wins -160

Reasons Why?

I think it is very realistic to predict the Colts to win 5 or 6 games in their division. With a weak overall strength of schedule, I can get to 10 wins with veteran QB Matt Ryan, stud RB Jonathan Taylor and stud WR Michael Pittman Jr. leading the way.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Win Total:   6.5 wins (OVER +115/ UNDER -135)

Strength of Schedule:  T-26

Additions: WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, G Brandon Scherff, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Darious Williams

Departures: RB Dare Ogunbowale, WR D.J. Chark, TE Jacob Hollister, G Andrew Norwell, G A.J. Cann, DT Taven Bryan, LB Myles Jack, LB Damien Wilson

Draft:  Edge Travon Walker, LB Devin Lloyd, C Luke Fortner, LB Chad Muma, RB Snoop Conner, CB Gregory Junior, CB Montaric Brown

My Favorite Bets:

-None

Reasons Why?

The over at plus odds is very tempting. I think HC Doug Pederson is a huge upgrade and I think it’s reasonable to expect a big 2nd-year leap from QB Trevor Lawrence. But this is a wait and see for me and I’ll just pass on this bet.

 

Tennessee Titans

Current Win Total:    9.5 wins (OVER +135 / UNDER -160)

Strength of Schedule:  T-24

Additions: RB Jordan Wilkins, WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jamarco Jones, CB Buster Skrine, S A.J. Moore

Departures: WR A.J. Brown, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Julio Jones, TE Anthony Firkser, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G Roger Saffold

Draft:  WR Treylon Burks, CB Roger McCreary, OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, QB Malik Willis, RB Hassan Haskins, TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, WR Kyle Phillips, S Theo Jackson, LB Chance Campbell

My Favorite Bets:

-Under 9.5 wins -160

Reasons Why?

The Titans now have one of the weakest offensive lines in the league, per Sharp Football Anaylsis. Yes, they can still lean on RB Derrick Henry. But how will the offense fair without A.J. Brown? Their 1st round WR Treylon Burks looks like he may need some time. While they added WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, I think this offense won’t be near as dynamic as it was the last few years. Give me the under at -160.

What do you think of my AFC South bets? Will you be tailing any of these bets with me?

 

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