Last week I broke down how I like to hunt for value on sportsbooks for NBA prop bets. Again, I find value spots in players that play a lot of minutes, high points per minute players or players that have new roles due to injury. That last part is key in Game 1 of the Heat vs. 76ers. The Heat will still be without Kyle Lowry and the 76ers will be without star Joel Embiid due to an orbital fracture and concussion.
Let’s start with the Heat props I like without Kyle Lowry. I love Brian Matthews’ daily article over at Oddschecker that breaks down player’s consistency. It also notes consistency when current injured players are off the court.
For points, I like Max Strus over 12.5 points per FanDuel Sportsbook. You can see that has had 12 or more points in 4 of the last 5 games without Lowry. It helps that he can get hot from behind the arc, as he has 3 or more 3-pointers in the last 5 games without Lowry. I like the over of Strus’ points and 3’s and don’t mind a parlay of 15 points and 4 3-pointers.
For stat combos, I like Jimmy Butler’s PRA of 40+ (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook). As you can see without Lowry, he has consistently filled the stat sheet with 20 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists. He has also gone well over his individual lines in the Hawks series. I like him to take over here and fill the stat sheet and will be betting Butler’s PRA of 40 for +150.
Again, I turn to Brian Matthews’ Prop Consisentcy Report at Oddschecker to find value and which player will have to step up in Embiid’s absence.
For points, I like Tyrese Maxey over 21.5 points per FanDuel Sportsbook. As you can see in the report, Maxey has gone over 22.5 points in 7 of 10 games without Embiid.
I also like Danny Green over 8.5 points per FanDuel Sportsbook. Green has 9+ points in 4 of the last 5 and 6 or more points in 8 of 10 games without Embiid. He can also heat up from behind the arc, which makes this line easier to hit.
For rebounds, I like Tobias Harris at over 8.5 rebounds at +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Harris has been crashing the boards and pulling down double digit rebounds in 4 of the last 5 games in the Raptors series. To get this at plus odds with Embiid off the court seems like a steal.
Which props are your favorite to target for this game?