As part of an occasional series, Fanspeak will offer tips and best practices for its wildly popular and first-of-its-kind On The Clock draft simulator.
Today’s topic: What do you do when all of your favorite targets are drafted ahead of you?
How Dak Prescott became a Cowboy is an example of what can happen when everything goes wrong during a draft.
Dallas, which had the No. 4 overall pick in 2016, thought it would have a shot at either Jared Goff of California or Carson Wentz of North Dakota State.
Then two teams leap-frogged ahead of Dallas: the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles. Those teams wound up with the QBs, so Dallas drafted running back Ezekiell Elliott.
But Dallas still needed to find a replacement for the aging Tony Romo and was determined to draft one. The team was allegedly close to a trade with Seattle to move back into the first round until Denver swooped in with a better offer.
Then it was on to QB choice No. 4: Michigan State’s Connor Cook. Instead, the Raiders – who had just drafted Derek Carr in the second round of the 2014 draft – surprised many and selected Cook with the No. 100 pick overall.
Dallas had the 101st pick.
Finally – finally – after Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler and Cook were drafted, Dallas selected Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott with pick No. 135 overall, one of the last picks of the fourth round and the team’s second fourth-rounder.
But that’s one of those rare occasions when something good happens despite a series of unfortunate events.
Most of the time, it’s just a headache.
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What do you do?
Let’s say your team desperately needs an offensive tackle, but you’re picking in the late first-round.
And you figure that at least one of the top OTs — Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills and Josh Jones – should still be there.
Then you watch as all five players are drafted ahead of you.
That’s OK, your team also needs to find a pass rusher. And then you watch as Chase Young (of course), K’Lavon Chaisson and Yetur Gross-Matos all go off the board.
Then repeat the process for that starting cornerback you’re looking for.
Now it’s your turn to draft: What do you do?
This is where the “luxury pick” enters the picture. Similar to taking the best player available regardless of position, a luxury pick is when your team drafts a player at a position that’s already a strength and/or has depth on your team.
This draft strategy works in any round, not just the first-round.
For example, it worked out great for New Orleans, who drafted former Tennessee RB Alvin Kamara in the third round in 2017 despite already having a Pro Bowl RB on the roster in Mark Ingram.
But here’s the caveat for teams that draft luxury players: You have to be committed to giving that prospect playing time. Otherwise, it’s a wasted pick.
Here are five “luxury picks” for the upcoming 2020 NFL draft:
Jake Rigdon (jake@sydwriting.com) covers the NFL draft for Fanspeak and the On The Clock, which is the only NFL draft simulator that allows you to customize and use your own big board while giving you control over trades.