*Note this Mock Draft is not meant to “guess the pick”, but rather what I’d do if I was running the current state of that team.
-The Jaguars have spent most of free agency adding to the offense, so that could set them up to grab atop defender here. Hutchinson or Thibodeaux are the most likely options to pair with 2019 1st rounder Josh Allen to give Jacksonville a formidable pass rush.
-This may seem like a surprise given the “buzz” that Thibodeaux is falling, but that feels more like a smoke screen vs a reality. The reality is Thibodeaux is a top tier EDGE rusher, with the athleticism and frame to become elite. It’s possible the Lions go Travon Walker instead, but I think it is very close and Thibodeaux has a slight edge.
-Though the Texans could consider a number of different positions here landing a star offensive lineman makes the most sense. While the team still has Tunsil, it sounds like they might try to trade him. Ekwonu could be the long term option at left tackle and could start at RT until a trade is made.
-I think the Jets could look at EDGE players, receivers, and even offensive linemen, but it will be tough to pass on Gardner who has elite corner abilities. Gardner gives them a corner who can help match-up vs some of the top receiver talent in the division.
-Giants add a premier Offensive lineman with this pick. While they just drafted Andrew Thomas 2 years ago, he’s struggled so far at LT. If he develops the Giants can keep Thomas at LT and have Neal slide over to RT giving them a pair of high end tackles. This is a make or break year for Daniel Jones so having increased protection will be key to ensure New York knows what they have in their young QB.
-The Panthers have to find a way to upgrade their QB position this year. Carolina struckout in free agency and the trade market and will have to rely on the draft. Pickett is probably the safest QB and one that could lead a team to the post season, similar to Mac Jones this year for New England. Pickett might not have ceiling that Willis has, but it’s not as poor as people make it out to be. He can be a Ryan Tannehill/Kirk Cousins, and comes with a strong floor.
-The Giants would love to move this selection, but if they “have” to pick here, grabbing Travon Walker is a steal. New York’s pass rush will likely look to move one of these picks, but in this draft they can take a guy who is still 1.1 or 1.2 on many big boards. Thibodeaux has the skill set to be an impact edge rusher, something that the Giants could use.
-Atlanta has so many needs that they could basically grab anyone here and it would make sense. In the end thought I think the value of grabbing Johnson and a true pass rushing threat off the edge is the best course of action. Johnson has the ability to be a double-digit sack guy year-in-year-out, and can help start the rebuild of this defense. The offense will likely be a 2023 proposition.
-Yes there aren’t a lot of reports suggesting that Seattle will take a QB, but if they can land a guy like Willis I think they make the selection here. Having a quarterback is simply too important in the NFL, and Willis gives them a similar skill set to Wilson making him a fit for what they already do. Willis has immense upside, but Seattle should expect growing pains as he makes the jump from Liberty to the NFL.
-The Jets could very well be sending this selection as part of the package to acquire a receiver like Deebo Samuel, but if they retain the pick WR is the likely option. You can make a case for a couple of the top receivers, but Wilson is the best combination of upside and floor. He should immediately help Zach Wilson, and jump start a stagnant Jets offense.
-With the Carson Wentz trade, the Commanders can look to add a starting receiver opposite Terry McLaurin. Washington went out and added an upgrade at QB, but it won’t help much if McLauin is the only receiver he can trust. London gives Washington a physical receiver, who can win contested catches and be a force in the Red Zone. The Washington passing attack would be a well balanced threat of McLaurin, London, Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown.
-The Vikings could look at a defensive lineman here like Jordan Davis or a top corner like Derek Stingley Jr., but Charles Cross is too valuable here to pass up. Minnesota has been desperate to fix their offensive line for years now, and Cross is a guy who can finally lock down the LT role. Yes they drafted Christian Darrisaw a year ago, but that was a different regime. Darrisaw has upside, but he struggled some as a rookie, which could mean the Vikings look to either move him inside or trade him. Passing on Cross, who has Pro Bowl upside just doesn’t make sense if they want this offense to click.
-The Texans have a long rebuild ahead of them, but staring this draft with Ekwonu and now Davis, would give them an anchor piece on either side of the line. Davis tested off the charts athletically for his size, and he played at a high level as part of the best defense in the country. Concerns will remain about how many snaps he can play, but that seems to be overblown. Also the Texans should consider the division they are in, and how to stop elite backs like Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. Adding a a guy like Jordan Davis will be a great first step.
-Baltimore is in a nice spot here, particularly if multiple QBs and WRs go ahead of them. That should mean at least one of Cross, Davis, Jermaine Johnson, Stingley Jr. or Kyle Hamilton will be on the board. Any of those players would be an amazing pick for the Ravens, but Stingley feels like maybe the best option no matter what. The Ravens secondary was banged up last season and became a major liability. While hopefully they can stay healthy, the Ravens could use an upgrade next to Marlon Humphrey.
-Eagles can be a bit creative with their draft capital and grabbing a defensive playmaker like Hamilton makes a lot of sense. Philly was awful defending TE’s last season, and Hamilton is a guy who can match-up vs anyone.
-The Saints sound like they are going to try to make a playoff push this year and they have to add more offensive weapons. Beyond Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, the offensive skill talent is pretty bare on the team. Williams gives New Orleans maybe the most talented WR in this class, who slides due to injury. He might miss the first half the year, but could give New Orleans a major boost if they want to go on a playoff run.
-The Chargers could go a few different ways, but further protecting Justin Herbert will be tough to pass up. The Chargers would likely be even willing to trade up to secure one of Cross or Penning.
-The Eagles can keep adding to their defense with Karlaftis here. Philly struggled to pressure the QB last season, and need to spend some resources to add more pass rushers. Karlaftis is a tick below the top 4 EDGE rushers, but he’s still a top 15-20 talent and a guy capable of 10+ sacks.
-The Saints could grab a QB here or maybe reach for an offensive tackle, but neither seems to make a lot of sense. Grabbing the best off the ball linebacker in the draft, fills a need and is a nice value here.
-Pittsburgh has to add a QB this offseason and missed out on the top two guys in Willis and Pickett. Ridder is pretty pro ready and has a nice combination of athleticism, leadership and throwing ability.
-The Patriots need a new star inside linebacker and grabbing Dean here gives them a defensive playmaker. Dean has electric athletic ability and can be a cornerstone to build around.
-With the Packers trading away Davante Adams they are desperate to add weapons. Olave gives Green Bay a guy who can be an instant starter and is a fantastic route runner. Aaron Rodgers should be thrilled with this selection, though the Packers still need to add another WR in the 2nd or 3rd rd.
-The Cards could go WR, OL, LB, EDGE or CB with this selection. McDuffie slid down this draft making this a pretty easy decision on which of those need areas Arizona should fix. He could be their best corner since Patrick Peterson and help defend versus some of the top WRs in their division.
-Cowboys don’t have a lot of pressing needs. They may add an EDGE player or another defensive back, but I like them to continue to build up their OL. Johnson should be a day 1 starter at guard and help improve the rushing attack and protection for Dak.
-Buffalo could look at a few different directions, and Linderbaum is a bit of a luxury selection here as they have Morse at center. He’s a solid veteran center, but Linderbaum has All-Pro upside. Morse could perhaps even be moved to guard (though that is far from certain). Longterm though, it boils down to Linderbaum fits with what Buffalo does and has too much upside to ignore.
-Tennessee could go receiver here, but adding to their offensive line in the 1st makes more sense. The interior is a question mark, and one that Green can fix. He gives them a strong physical guard who can help open lanes for Henry to run through.
-The Buccaneers need defensive back help and Booth is one of the top corners available. He has good size and speed, and should be able to start as a rookie.
-The Packers could consider doubling up at WR this year, but they might opt instead to spend a 2nd or 3rd for another weapon. Instead of a WR they land another top Georgia defender. Wyatt can play inside and outside some, giving the Packers a versatile defender.
-The Chiefs get a nice pick here in Dotson who is a refined route running specialist. A Christian Watson or a Trey Burks might have more upside, but Dotson has the much higher floor and can contribute as a rookie.
-With their next pick the Chiefs can add a much needed pass rusher to their defense in Ebiketie. Kansas City will like his burst off the edge and if Frank Clark can bounce back, this defense could take a step in the right direction with this selection.
-The Bengals spent a lot of resources investing in the offensive line, which now gives them a luxury in not forcing one in this spot. If one of the top guys slides they could go that direction, but the passing defense is clearly an issue as well. Elam should be able to start as a rookie and he has the upside to become a very good corner.
-The Lions luck into one of the more hyped receivers slide to them at 32. Burks has good size and speed and is a bit of a do everything type of weapon. There are a few concerns about his game, in how it impacts his ceiling, but this selection is too good to pass up.
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