2016 NFL Season Win Totals Offer interesting values

NFL Predictions

A meaningful NFL game won’t be played for over three more months, but already we have projected Vegas win totals  for the upcoming season. Now a lot can still change for teams as they go through their offseason workouts and the preseason and injuries begin to occur, but this is a good first barometer of where Vegas believes teams should be valued. Sports betting like stock portfolio’s, need expert tools and information like that provided by Binary Uno for stock traders. This guide might not be as comprehensive as their range of tools, but it will give you an early look at some over/under win totals to target.

5 Overs that I like:

Seattle Seahawks over 10.5 wins : -140 

–  The Seahawks only won 10 games last year, but they were a better team than their record showed and I think they will be one of the top 3 teams in the NFC this year with likely at least 12 wins. There is a slight risk here since the odds aren’t exactly in your favor, but I think they are one of the safer teams to start the year.

Washington Redskins over 7.5 wins: -120

–  The Redskins won the NFC East last year with a 9-7 record. While there is a concern that they could regress with the Cowboys and Giants seemingly improved this offseason, the Redskins should be inline for an 8-11 win season. Their defense could take a big step this year and their passing game could end up being one of the best in the league.

New England Patriots over 10.5 wins: -115

–  I know there is some risk here with Tom Brady potentially missing the first 4 games of the season, but this is a team that has won at least 12 games each of the past six seasons. Even if Brady is out unless they go 0-4 in those games, they are a good bet for 11+ wins. Also given the uncertainty of the Brady suspension you are getting a little better odds here with just a -115.

Jacksonville Jaguars over 7.5 wins: -120

–  It’s been a while since it reasonably felt like the Jaguars had a .500 team or better, but this feels like the year the Jaguars begin to make the jump. Even with some injury concerns this defense should make a big jump this year. Offensively they already started to improve, and that should only continue with better RB and OL play. The AFC South is still one of the weaker divisions in the league so Jacksonville could easily get 4 or 5 divisional wins.

Oakland Raiders over 8.5 wins: -115 

–  The Raiders were 7-9 last season, with 5 of those losses coming by less than a TD. They have a young team that is only getting better and were able to add a couple key pieces this offseason. With the Broncos potentially taking a step back, the Raiders could be a 9 or 10 win team.

5 Under bets that I like:

Philadelphia Eagles under 7 wins: -150

–  The Eagles are learning a new offense and defensive scheme and while long term that is a positive, this year it could limit their success. At QB they are starting a disgruntled Sam Bradford, which doesn’t bode well and if they struggle early on they might turn to the rookie Carson Wentz at the end of the year to get him some work. Getting 7 or more wins is going to be tough for this team.

Cleveland Browns under 4.5 wins: +120

–  It typically isn’t smart to bet the under on the team with the lowest win total projection, but the Browns are in a complete rebuilding mode and it’s tough to see where they find 5 or more wins on this schedule. They play in a very tough division and there are question marks up and down their roster.

LA Rams under 7.5 wins: -140

–  The Rams have a good defense still, but they lost a few pieces to it this offseason that they weren’t able to replace. Todd Gurley should be an elite back, but the Rams passing game figures to be a mess with a rookie QB that lacks quality weapons. It’s tough to believe this team can go .500 or better this year.

Indianapolis Colts under 9.5 wins: -115 

–  The Colts do get Andrew Luck back and they did add some offensive line help this offseason, but I don’t know if this is a 10 win team next season. The Colts just don’t have a lot of overall talent and Andrew Luck can only make up for so much of the lack of team talent. With the Texans and Jaguars improving, it’s tough to think that the Colts will win 4 or 5 divisional games like they have in the past.

Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 wins: +105

–  The Chiefs started last year 1-5 before going on a 10 win run to finish the year 11-5. The Chiefs were a good team last year, but they seemed to play a little above their talent level with that 10 game winning streak. Both the Raiders and Chargers should be better teams this year making it a tougher schedule for KC. In addition the Chiefs lost some key free agents and Justin Houston could miss significant time due to injury this year. All of that together makes it tough to believe they win 10 or more games this season.

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