NFL Week 1 Underdog Pick’ems

Fantasy Football Projections

Here are my favorite NFL Week 1 Underdog Pick’ems for you all to follow! If you are new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up here and be sure to use code FANSPEAK for 100% deposit match up to $100! Double your money to play more Pick’ems! Now let’s get to why I like these Week 1 picks.

 

Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards – 239.5 yards:  Lower

Hurts enters the season as one of the more popular fantasy picks for various formats. That probably is why his line is a bit inflated here. Hurts averaged just 209.6 yards per game last season, and 200 in wins. In fact, in Hurts’ 8 wins, he only topped this line twice last season, most games falling well below. With the Eagles as -4 point favorites over the Lions, unless you think the Lions will win this game it’s tough to think that Hurts will pass for 240+ yards.

Some will point to the acquiring of A.J. Brown, or the hope that he develops in year two. Maybe those will make Hurts a better passer, even in that case staying away from a 240-yard passing line is smart. That’s a decent number, with only 13 QBs averaging that amount for the season last year. Even a better passing QB, I’d want to only take higher if I thought they’d need to throw a fair amount. With the Eagles though that doesn’t seem like the case. They are a strong defensive team with a great rushing attack.

Marvin Jones: Receiving Yards – 43.5 yards:  Lower

This line feels way too high for Jones. He averaged just 48.9 yards per game last season as the unquestioned top option on the team. Now the team brings in WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. Running back Travis Etienne also could be heavily involved in the passing game this season, after missing 2021 with an injury. So Marvin Jones cracking 44 yards when he could be the 4th or 5th passing option on this team isn’t something we should be interested in. This also could be a lower-scoring game versus Washington, giving even less hope of this working out.

 

Derek Carr: Passing Yards- 263.5 yards:  Higher

Carr only topped 264 yards 7 times last season, and neither time versus the Chargers, but this is one of my favorite pick’ems of the week. This game is one of the highest scoring on the slate and has major shootout potential. Carr also gets a strong offensive-minded coach in Josh McDaniels, which should hopefully improve the offense as a whole. He now has a healthy Darren Waller and Davante Adams to go along with Hunter Renfrow. Those three weapons are going to be tough for opposing defenses to handle, and the Chargers will be without their top corner J.C. Jackson in week 1.  Add all of this together and I see Carr well above 264 passing yards.

 

Hunter Renfrow: Receiving Yards – 49.5 yards:  Higher

Renfrow benefits from a lot of similar reasons that Carr does above. This should be a more dynamic offense this year and this game projects like a shootout. Renfrow’s line here feels like too much worry is given about Waller and Adams being the top targets on the team. Sure that’s a factor, but this team should be more efficient and throw more in general. Also, Renfrow averaged 46.5 and 41 yards per game in his first two years in the league when he was a part-time player. In this type of game environment, he easily can crack 50 yards.

 

TE Mark Andrews: Receiving Yards – 69.5 yards:  Lower

Andrews is coming off a career year where he averaged 80.1 yards per game, but this was a pretty easy choice for me. Andrews’s previous career high was in 2019 with 56.8 yards per game, and that is probably a better range for him this season. Andrews saw his production spike last year, as the Ravens’ defense struggled and they were down in more games. Also when Lamar Jackson got injured, Andrews saw his usage spike as he became a safe target for the backup QBs.

With the Ravens’ defense looking strong to start the season and Jackson back healthy, the number of targets heading Andrews’s way this season should be dropping. He will still have some big games to be sure, but the Ravens are heavy favorites over the Jets in week 1. This game doesn’t figure to be any sort of up-tempo/shootout type of game.

 

 


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