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Introducing Consistency Rankings

In search of a total new system of drafting, I sought to figure out a way to gauge how players performed on a way-to-week basis. I came up with consistency rankings, with some help from TheHuddle.com and the USA Today fantasy football preview magazine.

My portion of the rankings broke down how many times a player topped 20, 15, and 10 points. Then, using inspiration from The Huddle, I calculated a corresponding percentage. For quarterbacks, it was the percentage of times a player topped 15 points. For running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, it was based on topping 10 points. I then averaged that percentage with the Huddle’s rankings from 2009-2011. (Their percentage is based on varying criteria depending on position, e.g. 300 yards and/or two touchdowns for quarterbacks; those numbers add up to roughly 15 points in my current league’s scoring system.)

That led to a top-10 that looks like this:

Player Position Team Bye Total
Points
Avg
Points
20+ 15+ 10+ Rob
Pct.
2011
Pct.
2010
Pct.
2009
Pct.
Avg.
Pct.
Aaron Rodgers QB GB 10 401 25.1 14 15 15 94 100 73 75 85.5
Drew Brees QB NO 6 388 24.3 12 15 16 94 94 81 73 85.5
Tom Brady QB NE 9 362 22.6 9 15 16 94 100 75 63 83
Arian Foster RB HOU 8 242 15.1 6 9 10 63 85 88 N/A 78.66667
Ray Rice RB BAL 8 289 18.1 5 11 14 88 81 63 81 78.25
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX 6 249 15.6 2 9 12 75 94 64 69 75.5
Peyton Manning QB DEN 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 81 69 75
LeSean McCoy RB PHI 7 270 16.9 5 11 14 88 93 73 38 73
Cam Newton QB CAR 6 360 22.5 9 12 16 75 69 N/A N/A 72
Tony Romo QB DAL 5 275 17.2 6 11 14 69 75 N/A 69 71

(N/A means that player didn’t play at least eight games that season)

The system isn’t perfect, but it goes a long way towards helping determine how a player has performed over the last three seasons. For example, Torrey Smith had 129 points last season (8.1 points per week), but 99 of those points came in five weeks. Jimmy Graham actually ranks higher than Rob Gronkowski. And Calvin Johnson topped 20 points in half of his games last season (including week 17).

The biggest flaw is that it doesn’t predict the future, but no set of rankings can do that.



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