Preparing to Profit In Daily Fantasy Football Part 2

Daily Fantasy Fantasy Football Fantasy Football Strategy

By Staff Writer Joe Paeno:

Part 1 | Part 2

Bankroll Management 101

If you are a new DFS junky, then pay attention. This lesson will save you time, money, and a lot of heartbreak. You can be the best fantasy player in the world and still lose. AND LOSE. AND LOSE SOME MORE. In order to be a long term success, you must be consistent. The most important way to be consistent is managing your bankroll.

Have you ever played poker? Well, if you have, then you have experienced “TILT.” Just in case you don’t know the term, this is how Wikipedia defines it.

Tilt is a poker term for a state of mental or emotional confusion or frustration in which a player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-aggressive.

Tilt will destroy your bankroll if you don’t have a plan ahead of time. Whether you are winning or losing it can be very difficult for your judgement to not be affected. What I suggest is thinking of your Initial deposit to FanDuel/DraftKings as an investment. A long term investor will typically diversify his portfolio in order to protect himself from risks, but also giving him some growth potential. If you play your cards right you can do the same thing with DraftKings and FanDuel. Here is an example of what I suggest…

  • Play 10% of your bankroll each week
  • About 70 % of weekly bankroll should go to H2H, 50/50’s
  • 20% 3 team leagues and 5 team leagues
  • 10% GPP’s (Guaranteed Prize Pools)

In order to be profitable for the long haul, you need to remove risk out of the equation as much as possible. Playing only a small portion of your bankroll every week reduces the damage of having a bad week, or two, or three…It doesn’t matter how good you are, YOU WILL HAVE COLD STREAKS. The key is to be consistent, and stick to your plan, so that you don’t “TILT” out of control. The consistent player, who is not swayed by last week’s results (good or bad), will be the most successful in the long run.

More tortoise, less hare.

These percentages are not intended to be absolutes and I fully encourage you to change them based upon your own personal goals. The most important thing is that you stick to your plan, with these type of principles guiding your decision making process. The last thing you want is your mind/emotions getting the best of you every week.

Perfecting the process is more important than your weekly result. It is important to remember as a DFS grinder you are an “investor” and a “consumer.” Specifically, you are prone to emotional tilt based upon the return on your investment (ROI) or performance of your purchase. Consumers and investors a like will always suffer from buyers remorse, but the process is more important than the individual performance of your investment. Just because you were right about a player, doesn’t mean you were right in your decision making process. In the same way, just because your player flopped one week, doesn’t mean you made the wrong decision. As long as you follow the value trail and are consistent with your process, you will come out on top.

Strategies for Cash Games

Head 2 Head, 50/50’s, 3 Team Leagues, 5 Team Leagues

How you play in cash games will determine if you will be draining your bankroll or making a profit this season. The most important strategy for cash games is being able to target High Floor players that are a good value in regards to their price point. High floor, meaning good production on a consistent basis. You don’t need a monster lineup in a cash game, you just want to give yourself the best possible chances of having a good to really good score.

Volatility and upside are not your friends in cash games. You need to go after players that will have a better percentage of performing to their value. Certain players are easy to identify as consistent, but others may not be as easy to evaluate. This is where you need to refer to you site specific scoring, player salary, and vegas lines to help differentiate the Cash Game Players from the GPP Players for that week.

What types of players are good for cash games? Here are a couple examples of what to look for…

  • Consistent production, despite different outcomes, and types of game flow
  • Running backs who are heavily involved in the passing game Why? Because they will be on the field and part of the game plan no matter what the score is i.e. Toby Gerhart, less Alfred Morris
  • Receivers and Tight Ends who consistently receive a high volume of targets. Also, it helps if they have good hands, are good route runners and don’t solely rely upon their deep speed. i.e. More Andre Johnson, less Desean Jackson
  • Quarterbacks- Cash Game QB’s should be either heavy passing teams (Broncos, Saints). Sometimes dual threat QB’s can be very consistent based upon them being able to pick up fantasy points by throwing or rushing. i.e. Russell Wilson
  • Defense- Factors to consider are evaluating if they are playing a rookie QB (Raiders) or a dysfunctional offense (Bills), their opponent is away and/or travelling across country, and they are favored by the Vegas Line (preferably low scoring). The more of these factors are involved and the better the price point, the higher floor you will have.
  • Kicker- Volatile Kickers are not easy. High scoring, close matchups, domes, and low prices are the keys to picking a picking a kicker

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