DraftKings Week 1 Salary Release: My First DK 2022 Lineup


Yesterday I wrote my early analysis on Week 1 DraftKings pricing, including very early thoughts on favorite stacks, stands, pay-up plays and value plays.

Below this work of art, I laid out the reasons for my stacks and selections.

 

 

Most of the reasoning for these picks I gave in more detail in my Week 1 first look article. But here is why I love these plays and this lineup.

Vikings/Packers Stack:

I mentioned that I think the Chiefs/Cardinals will be the highest owned game stack by a wide margin. Of the other projected high total games, I think Vikings/Packers will be the least owned game stack. So I think there is leverage to be gained here.

I also love stacking the Vikings, because it is a very condensed offense. While I did not use Adam Thielen, I love including Irv Smith Jr. as part of the stack in the tight end position for cheap value.

QB Kirk Cousins always seems to be overlooked and under owned. I’ve stated my case that I think this offense could erupt under new head coach Kevin O’Connell and Cousins could be a big beneficiary early. I also like “running it back” with RB Aaron Jones from the Packers side. When Aaron Rodgers weapons are limited, Jones can be the big beneficiary in the passing game.

 

RB Christian McCaffery:

In DFS, we no longer have to debate if Christian McCaffery is worth of the 1.1 or 1.2 draft spot because of injury risk. In Week 1 of the NFL season, I’m taking the discount on CMC at $8500 and taking advantage of this dual threat weapon.

 

WR Tee Higgins & WR Michael Pittman Jr.:

I mentioned in the Week 1 early look article that I think wide receivers Tee Higgins ($6100) and Michael Pittman Jr. ($5500) are very under priced given their role in their offense and ceiling potential.

You could pivot from Higgins to Marquise Brown if you want a mini KC/AZ game stack. But I think that will be pretty chalky. I will probably copy this same lineup and pivot to Brown in a smaller field tournament.

 

WR Skyy Moore:

I also discussed how cheap the Chiefs receivers are priced. I’m taking the rookie Skyy Moore priced at just $3800. If he continues to build Mahomes trust during training camp and preseason then we should see him heavily involved in 3 WR sets. We’ll see how preseason plays out, but this is an electric rookie that could make an impact early.

 

DEF Detroit Lions:

To explain this play, I’m going to channel my best Sofia from Golden Girls.  Picture it…it’s Week 1 of the  2019 season, and everyone is excited to play Bucs QB Jameis Winston against the 49ers defense. The 49ers invested in their defense that offseason but no one was talking about that and it was clear Winston would be high-owned. Well, Winston threw 3 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns). I was able to take advantage of this by playing the 49ers defense at a very low price and low ownership.

The summary to this story is fading a high-owned QB and playing the low-owned defense gives you double leverage if it works. So I’m going to try to recreate that 2019 magic by fading a potentially high-owned QB Jalen Hurts and playing the cheapest defense and potentially low-owned Detriot Lions.

Could Aidan Hutchinson and DesShon Elliott be the 2022 Lions’ version of Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman? Can the Lions’ young defensive players make a big year 2 leap? C’mon Hutch, let’s put the pressure on Hurts & co. to make mistakes!

 

SUMMARY:

Projected high-owned/chalky plays:

RB Christian McCaffery, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Michael Pittman Jr. and WR Skyy Moore

Projected low-owned plays:

QB Kirk Cousins, RB Aaron Jones, WR Tee Higgins, TE Irv Smith Jr. and DEF Detroit Lions

 

While I have some potential chalk in this lineup, I also have what I project as solid low-owned plays that have ceiling potential. I like that my main stack is from most likely the more overlooked projected high total game. I still got pieces to other projected high total games and studs and values I really love.

Now I need to swear to myself not to tinker with this particular lineup unless necessary, and enter this in at least one Week 1 tournament!

 

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