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by Steve Shoup

Predicting the Redskins Stat Leaders for 2013

May 6, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

In the offseason down time I thought it would be fun to make predictions on who will be the Redskins statistical leaders in the following categories, also I will mention who I see as the runner up. Some will be a bit more obvious, but others could be more interesting.

Passing: Yards, TD's, Completions

Rushing: Yards, TD's, Carries

Receiving: Yards, TD's, Catches

Defense: Sacks, Tackles, Interceptions

Kick-off Return: Yards, Returns

Punt Return: Yards, Returns

Passing: Yards, TD's and Completions: Robert Griffin III leader, Kirk Cousins runner-up

-This doesn't have much mystery given that even if Cousins were to start 4-6 games, Griffin would start the lionshare and trump all of Cousins numbers. Though it would be unthinkable to Redskins fans, if Cousins were to start half and Griffin half, I think we'd likely see Cousins win both in yards and touchdowns as they are likely to throw more with him under quarterback. Griffin would likely still edge him out in completions due to his higher completion percentage.

Rushing: Yards, TD's, Carries: Alfred Morris leader, Jawan Jamison runner-up

-No surprise of course with who the leader is in these categories, but the runner-up will likely surprise. Though I believe that Roy Helu Jr. will initially have the back-up running back job, I think Mike Shanahan will eventually turn to Jamison. He's a really good zone runner, who is really tough to bring down. I think it will be close with Helu and Chris Thompson getting some chances as well, but Jamison will edge them out. One category that could go to someone else as the runner-up could be rushing TD's as FB Darrel Young may be called upon some short yardage situations. The real wild card could be RGIII, last year he was a major rushing threat, but coming back from an injury he's likely to be more limited and not running as much.

Receiving: Yards- leader Pierre Garcon, runner-up Joshua Morgan; TD's-leader Santana Moss, runner-up Garcon; Catches-leader Garcon, runner-up Morgan

-This category has a lot more interesting options. Garcon should definitely be the leader in yards and catches (though catches could be closer), but touchdowns could go in a number of different directions. Garcon will definitely get some TD's after turning a 17 yard pass into a 40+ yard gain for a score, but he typically wasn't targeted as much in or around the end zone. With the primary TE up in the air, and none of them true red zone threats, it wouldn't shock me to see Moss lead in touchdowns again. He's such a great precision route runner, and showed such a great versatility in his scores last year that it is likely he will continue to be a focal point in and around the end zone. The runner's up in all the categories are a lot tougher to figure out. The Redskins really spread the ball around last year, and with both Fred Davis and Garcon dealing with some injury issues, that will likely occur some once again.

Defense: Sacks- leader Brian Orakpo, runner-up Ryan Kerrigan; Tackles- leader Perry Riley, runner-up London Fletcher; Interceptions leader Brandon Meriweather, runner-up DeAngelo Hall

-A lot of interesting choices for me on defense. Sacks I do feel are pretty straight forward as it is pretty likely going to be Orakpo and Kerrigan, or Kerrigan and Orakpo as the leaders and runner-up. I have faith that Orakpo will be back healthy and take the sack lead. Tackles are one that will likely draw some debate, but Riley was just 10 tackles behind Fletcher last year, and it wouldn't shock me if we see Fletcher taking more plays off this year. We saw him take some snaps off last year, and I think we'll likely see a rise in that department, especially if Keenan Robinson shows any promise. Interceptions is very much up in the air (no pun intended), as last season Fletcher led the team with 5 picks, and Rob Jackson tied Hall for the runner up spot. The Redskins added three of the interception leaders in college football over the past two years, in this draft class, but how much they play is up for debate. Brandon Meriweather is a guy who could get a fair amount of opportunities (assuming he is healthy), Hall has always been a guy who goes for INT's so he should be in the mix as well, though it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't play as many snaps this season, as the Redskins could look to utilize their deeper CB roster to match-up better.

What do you think? Who do you see as the leaders and runner-ups in these categories?

 

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by John Manuel

Random Pre-Draft Redskins Thoughts

April 15, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

By Staff Writer John Manuel:

Now that the free agency period has dwindled down I feel that the Washington Redskins did a very good job so far, even though they had a major obstacle to deal with.  I knew that the cap penalty was going to be an issue but was shocked on how bad it actually ended up.  Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen should be commended for at least getting them into a decent situation before incurring the second $18 million penalty.

The Redskins used free agency to hold onto most of their key free agents, unrestricted and restricted.  The one main loss was Lorenzo Alexander leaving for Arizona.  I think they will miss him but I am not devastated by the loss and Lorenzo had to do what was best for him.  The old Skins would have way overpaid to keep Zo and hurt the team in the long run.  But Shanny and Allen have been all about working good deals which won't crush the team.

Two guys who had a chance to test free agency and ended coming back for modest deals were Fred Davis and DeAngelo Hall, which will bring up much debate.  As I have said in the past, I wanted Davis back for sure and I think the one-year deal he signed was very good.  If he can get healthy he will help this offense and the passing game.  I have been criticized for my support of Davis but when he is on the field he is the Skins 2nd best option in the passing game to Garcon.  This is Davis' last chance and I think he will step up and make the most of it.

As for DeAngelo Hall.  I was very happy when the Skins decided to cut Hall.  I am not a big fan of his and never have been.  But I am fine with deal they struck to bring him back.  If it doesn't work out come September, they can just let him go and no harm is done.  If he comes back and plays like week 17, it is a great deal for the Redskins.  I would have loved to see Antoine Winfield but that didn't work out.  Hall at least gives them another corner that can play.  I will be interested to see what they get out of E.J. Biggers next season.  I am not expecting him to be Revis, but I think he should help.

The secondary is still a huge question mark and I expect them as most do to address both corner and safety in next week’s draft.  Especially since they are sitting without a legit option at free safety.  The good news is Shanahan and Allen's draft track record in Washington has been very good.  Adding a franchise quarterback, should have been pro bowl running back, pro bowl left tackle and a pass rusher in the past three years.  Now it would be nice to have a cornerstone corner and a rock at the free safety spot for years to come as well.

Finally I still would like to see them add at least one more playmaker to the offense, preferably at the running back position.  Roy Helu hopefully comes back healthy and can help, but if he can't I would like to see the Shanny mid to late round flyer used to address this.  Before I was hoping, just like Robert Griffin III was, that Reggie Bush would have an interest in Washington.  He didn't and I think he made a mistake.  Yes, he got more money and most likely more playing time in Detroit but he had a chance to do special things in Washington with Griffin and Morris.  Bush should be financially set based on his NFL career and what he got at USC, so I didn't think it was far off to think he could have played for low money in DC.  But that is his choice and hard for me to truly argue.

How would you grade Redskins free agency moves given their cap situation?

 

 

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by Steve Shoup

Washington Redskins Free Agency Plan: Bargain Shopping Part 2

March 14, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

Yesterday I looked at some offensive options, today I will look at some various defenders that the Redskins could potentially sign for cheap contracts. Given that their needs are primarily in the secondary that is where the focus will be. Here are some cheaper options for the Redskins:

Cornerback:

Terrence Newman-

Newman has had a pretty distinguished career and is coming off a nice bounce back season in Cincinnati. He's going to be 35 next season so his contract demands should be low (he's coming off a league minimum deal), but he could be a good one or two year short term solution. He may not be an every down corner but could come in on sub packages.

Most I'd offer: 2 year $4.5 million, with $1.5 guaranteed, and only $1.5 million in the first year

Tracy Porter-

Porter has been a solid starter in his career, and will be just 27 next year. The one drawback is he's dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career, including a seizure and a concussion last year that limited him to just 316 snaps last year. The injury concerns will keep his contract low, but he could be a decent one year pick-up for the Redskins.

Most I'd offer: 1 year at $815K, with $100K guaranteed

Brice McCain-

McCain is an above average slot corner who is just 26 years old. He will never play on the outside and shouldn't be considered a star, but he's young with some nice potential and will come relatively cheap.

Most I'd offer: 3 year deal at $11 million, with $3.5 million guaranteed, with just $2.25 million in year one.

Marcus Trufant-

Trufant has been a good starter in this league for much of his career, and this past year proved himself as still a capable slot corner. He'd be a solid veteran addition despite being 32 years old.

Most I'd offer: 2 year deal $3.5 million, with $1 million guaranteed, and $1.25 million in year one.

Rashean Mathis-

Mathis was a good starting corner in this league before suffering an ACL injury late in 2011 season. Last year he struggled while returning from the injury and was only able to start 4 games. Being his second year back from the injury, his play should improve. He will be 33 next year so it's a short term fix, but he does offer nice size at 6'1".

Most I'd offer: 1 year $1.5 million deal, with $250K guaranteed

Safeties:

Nate Clements-

Clements has put together a really nice career as a corner, but was moved to safety last year with the Bengals (he also played some corner still as well). Clements could represent a nice veteran stopgap for a team at free safety. He may no longer be a top cover guy, but he still gets the job done despite being 33. He's got solid size and should continue to help at corner a little as well for certain match-ups.

Most I'd offer: 2 years $5.5 million deal, with $2.5 million guaranteed, and $2 million in the first year

Ryan Mundy-

Mundy has been the Steelers third safety the last couple of years, but has gotten a fair amount of playing time due to injuries with their starters. Mundy probably wouldn't be any better than an average starter for the Redskins, but that would be an upgrade. He'd be nice solid signing because he could keep the position warm until a rookie beat him out for it, then he'd offer quality depth and special teams ability.

Most I'd offer: 3 years $6 million, with $2.75 million guaranteed, and $1.25 million in the first year

Chris Crocker-

Crocker will be 33 this season, but continues to offer average level of play at the safety position. He's more of a strong safety, and would be a back-up on most teams, but continues to do okay when he's on the field. He offers really nice depth and would be a passable starter.

Most I'd offer: 1 year $1 million, $250K million guaranteed

Corey Lynch-

Lynch has been a career back-up and special teamer, but got some starts last year due to injury for the Chargers and performed pretty well. He'll be 28 this up-coming season, but could be an above average safety, and special teamer. He's got a little upside and should be a pretty solid cheaper option for the Redskins.

Most I'd offer: 3 years $7.5 million, with $1.5 million guaranteed, and $2 million in the first year.

 

 

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by John Manuel

Three Things the Redskins Should be Focused on this Offseason

February 11, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

By Staff Writer John Manuel:

If I'm the Redskins front office, there are three main areas I'm focused on this offseason. Redskins have Salary Cap issues, which need to be addressed first. But which area do you think is the biggest need?

1- Secondary help

Not a surprise here since at times last season it was ugly.  And to be more specific I am looking at free safety as the most important position of need heading into next season.  Way too many times we saw Madieu Williams be a step late on a touchdown or long pass completion.  The Victor Cruz winning touchdown is the play everyone will most remember.

And I know this team is weak at the corners, but I think the combination of a true free safety and Brian Orakpo's return will be a huge lift for the defense.  In house the only option could be DeAngelo Hall but I am against that.  First, Hall needs to be cut and only brought back to a much lower salary, which he says he is open to, but I really doubt it.  I think we overplay the whole corner to safety transition thing.  Ronnie Lott did it early and Rod Woodson late in his career but other than that it has not been that successful.  I would rather look to free agency or the draft for a new safety.

Jarius Byrd could be out there as an option.  He would clearly fit what the Skins needs.  Problem is he needs to make it to free agency, not be franchised and then the Skins would need the money.  One guy who everyone expects to be there is future hall of famer Ed Reed.  If he leaves Baltimore most see him in Indy or New England most likely.  I think if the Skins are interested in a more veteran star, Washington has been very “U” friendly and wouldn't discount it.  We have seen younger and older players have burned us but Reed is still a difference maker.  And a solid singer.

2- Not a shocker but number two is obvious as well.  Washington needs to shore up its line with a legit right tackle upgrade over Tyler Polumbus.

Polumbus has filled in admirably the past two seasons but it’s time to upgrade.  If the Skins make a move on a safety in free agency then the second round pick is in play for that tackle.  But this is a rare offseason where there are a lot of tackles available in free agency and not jumping on that may be a mistake.  The key could be with the hope that the cap penalty is lessened but we cannot count on that.

There are plenty of big time left tackles out there who may reach free agency from former Shanahan pick Ryan Clady to Miami's Jake Long.  With that position being a premier now many of these guys will see the franchise tag soon.  Branden Albert or Sebastian Vollmer could be a fit for the Skins but they will costly as everyone wants legit tackles.

Protecting Robert Griffin III has turned into huge focus after what happened last season and I can't see Shanahan not looking to upgrade the right tackle position.  The Washington Redskins have a chance to become a consistent offensive juggernaut but to be this Griffin has to be out there.

3- Speaking of making this team an offensive juggernaut, I want to see some improvement is at the running back.

What?  Alfred Morris just ran for over 1600 yards as a rookie.  Morris was unreal last season but I think this team could get scary on offense with a solid compliment to Morris.  Morris is and will continue to be the feature back, but I would love to have someone who is more of a big play threat to add to this offense.  The good thing is that Shanahan has a knack for finding backs anywhere in the draft but I think this should be more of a priority than trying to hit on another 6th round gold mine.

Roy Helu should be back but it’s up to the Shanahans to determine if Helu can fit this role in the offense as more of a home run and receiving guy.  I am not sure of that.  I think this offense can be scary silly if they have that homerun threat in the backfield with RG3 and Morris.

Darren Sproles isn't available but Reggie Bush looks to be.  At first thought I wasn't for Reggie Bush but if his price isn't high I think he could really help with his explosive at times abilities.  I am not sold that this would be a good move, but should be on the table.

Now if the Redskins are able to address both safety and right tackle in free agency and they are on the clock in the second round and the best player on their board is Kenyon Barner, I say jump at it.  Defenses are already on their heels facing the Skins offense and this could have them at a complete loss.  I know we may have bigger needs, but this is an offensive league and we have a treasure in Griffin and must continue to build off of that.

 

 

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by Steve Shoup

Washington Redskins Offseason Needs: Defense

February 5, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

1. Free Safety-

Both safety spots are problems, but free safety is the biggest issue. While it is not ideal Brandon Meriweather, Reed Doughty and DeJon Gomes are all capable of playing strong safety. At free safety all the Redskins really have is Jordan Pugh. Adding a starting caliber free safety is a must this offseason, and needs to be their number one priority overall.

2. Cornerback-

DeAngelo Hall needs to be released if the Redskins hope to get under the cap without sacrificing the future. On top of the obvious cap reasons Hall, the Redskins need more production out of Hall's spot. Despite a few flashy plays each year, Hall remains one of the biggest liabilities in coverage. He gives up a ton of catches and yards after the catch. He also struggles in zone coverage, and inside versus quicker receivers. The Redskins need to find a starting upgrade and this should be another big priority for them. They might not have the money for a big free agent so targeting a corner in the 2nd or 3rd round who can play early on, may need to be the way they go.

3. Nickel Corner-

Cedric Griffin is a free agent, D.J. Johnson struggled and Richard Crawford's promise evaporated once the preseason was over. The Redskins will likely need a nickel corner 40-50% of the time, and possibly even more depending on how the season goes. While Crawford could get a look, his promising preseason last year is not enough reason to avoid adding talent. The Redskins may look to re-sign Griffin or another veteran corner of that caliber (price range).

4. Strong Safety-

Though the Redskins have some various options at strong safety none of them are really good. Doughty and Gomes are solid versus the run, but struggle versus the pass. They are really back-ups at best, and can stick around due to their special teams play. Meriweather came in with some hype last year, but much of it was unwarranted. Yes he was a former first rounder and Pro Bowler (though how much he deserved that is debatable), but he's also a guy who got benched/released by two of the top defensive coaches (Bill Belicheck and Lovie Smith) in the league. Even when the Bears had two of their top safeties injured in 2011, they still kept Meriweather on the bench due to his inability to play within the system and his consistently giving up big plays. Last year Meriweather suffered 4 injuries, injuring one knee three times and then tearing his ACL in the other knee in week 11. He's not a guy the Redskins should really count on to be the answer. Even if Washington can get by with these safeties, Meriweather and Doughty are both free agents after this year making long term depth an issue. The Redskins may not find a starting caliber SS this year, but should at least add depth to the position.

5. Inside Linebacker-

This could become a far bigger need if London Fletcher retires. If Fletcher leaves than there is only Keenan Robinson at this position right now. And he saw his rookie season cut short due to injury. The Redskins would need to add at least a stopgap capable free agent in that scenario. If Fletcher stays then they could still look for better depth, but it could be a much lower priority.

6. Pass Rushing Defensive Lineman-

Stephen Bowen has been a solid defensive end and Jarvis Jenkins filled in well for Adam Carriker (who may need to be a cap casualty), but neither one of them showed any ability to consistently get some pressure on the quarterback. Even if Carriker returns that won't change as he's an even worse pass rusher than either of those two. While 3-4 DE's aren't sack masters (unless you are J.J. Watt) typically you have at least one who is capable of pushing the pocket and getting consistent pressure on the quarterback. The Redskins have lacked that presence and it has really hurt their pass rush, particularly when Orakpo was injured last year. They need to find at least a role player who can get after the quarterback.

7. Rush Linebacker Depth-

Rob Jackson may be an unrestricted free agent and Chris Wilson is not likely to return. The Redskins really need to add some depth here, even if Jackson ends up returning. They need a pass rush specialist for this spot to help out situationally, even if Kerrigan and Orakpo are both fully healthy.

8. Nose Tackle Depth-

Barry Cofield had a really nice season last year, but he's still doing way too many total snaps. Chris Baker is not a type of guy who can really take more snaps and he's starting to get expensive as a restricted free agent (he might not even return). A younger cheaper option is really needed here, as someone who can develop into a solid rotational player.

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by Steve Shoup

Ranking the Redskins Offseason Needs: Offense

January 30, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

This is a ranking of the Washington Redskins offensive needs, based on who are free agents, position depth going forward, and taking into account any potential salary cap casualties. (note: since restricted free agents are under team control I am assuming they are still on the team)

1. Right Tackle:

-Tyler Polumbus, Jordan Black and Jammal Brown (hopefully) are all either free agents or likely to be free agents. Left at the position are 2nd year 6th round pick Tom Compton, who was on the practice squad for most of the year, and 3rd year 7th round pick Maurice Hurt, who played guard as a rookie before moving to tackle more last year. Between the two of them they have one start at right tackle, which is really unacceptable if the Redskins want to be considered a playoff caliber team. Protecting Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins next year has to be a top priority, and investing in a quality right tackle is a great way to do that.

2. Left Guard:

-Kory Lichtensteiger is a free agent and currently there is a major question mark behind him on the depth chart. While some may love Lichtensteiger, he committed 10 penalties this past season, and was consistently the worst or 2nd worst lineman in a game. Giving him a pay raise (which is what he wants) doesn't make much sense, given the salary cap realities. Behind Lichtensteiger is 2nd year 3rd round pick Josh LeRibeus. LeRibeus got some late season work (including the playoffs) and was a mixed bag. At times he held up well, while on other series he was completely lost. Behind him our 2nd year 5th round pick Adam Gettis, who has promise but was inactive all year last year, also moving Hurt back to guard is an option, but he struggled mightily two years ago as a rookie. While LeRibeus is expected to win the job, he shouldn't have it just handed to him. Some level of competent competition should be brought in to ensure he is up for the task.

3. Tight End:

-While Logan Paulsen should be back as a restricted free agent, both Chris Cooley and Fed Davis are unrestricted and likely to not come back. Though there may be a big push to try to re-sign Davis, he's coming off an Achilles injury and will probably have his fair share of incentive laden offers. The Redskins can't afford to give him the best deal, and really they probably shouldn't. He's a pass catching TE who relies almost exclusively on his speed. He doesn't have the best hands, he's not a good route runner or technique guy, and he's going to struggle in both blocking and penalties. His speed could be compromised due to the injury, and given how much the Redskins run the football it doesn't make sense to invest in him. Though Paulsen can handle starting duties it would be nice to maybe bring in a tight end who at least has the ability to be more of a pass catching threat, though who can still block.

4. Running Back:

-There is almost no chance that Alfred Morris can repeat and have 335 carries again and have such a high percentage of the running back attempts. To continue to run him like that really risks shortening his career, while setting the team back. Roy Helu Jr. is back to help share the workload, but the team needs far better depth and may even want to consider carrying four backs on the roster.

5. Wide Receiver:

-Santana Moss could potentially be cut, but even if he stays the team could consider bringing in a receiver. Moss, Josh Morgan and Dezmon Briscoe are all free agents after this season, making the depth behind Pierre Garcon pretty questionable.

6. Offensive Line Depth:

-Even if this team adds a starting right tackle and left guard, depth is a real issue here. The Redskins were extremely lucky in 2012 with the overall health of their offensive line, but they can't rely on that to be the case going forward. Assuming two new starters, the Redskins would only have LeRibeus, Gettis, Hurt and Compton behind them. That is very little experience or upside to rely on, and at the very least they shouldn't just be handed the jobs.

7. Quarterback:

-While not a major need, it doesn't hurt to look forward. Rex Grossman is likely back for one more year, but after that the Redskins could use a young cheap 3rd quarterback. Washington could look to grab a late round/undrafted guy and stash him on the practice squad for a year.

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by John Manuel

Five Early Questions for Redskins Offseason

January 21, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

By Staff Writer John Manuel:

Here are my top 5 questions for the Washington Redskins offseason at this point:

1- The most important question has to be the health of Robert Griffin III and when will be able to take field.

Unfortunately at this point we have no answer to this.  Could be the opener or it could be 2014?  We just don't know and won't know anytime soon.  If I had to guess and this is a complete guess, I would say best case in the week 6-8 area of 2013.

Good news is that Kirk Cousins will get plenty of work leading up to training camp and most likely will be the starting once they get to Richmond.  Even if Griffin is close to coming back I am not concerned if he gets limited work with the first teamers as much as Cousins will.  Griffin will just need to get into shape and I am not concerned with that.

Question for the offseason is does Rex come back or does Washington look to go another direction in free agency or the draft?  Knowing that coming here means the bench and a low chance of getting time, I don't see anyone of decent name coming in.

2- The most important outcome of the offseason may be what happens with the $36 million cap penalty that was imposed on the Redskins last season.

Due to be hit with the 2nd $18 million hit this league year the Skins are still challenging the penalty.  Most think this is a no chance situation but I heard Adam Shefter say that some and possibly all the penalty may be overturned by the league.

For the 57th time I still cannot believe the actions of both the commissioner and the NFLPA on this.  Roger Goodell really played this one wrong and the Skins and Cowboys were screwed not only by the ruling but also how and when they decided to impose it.  What makes me more sick is that the NFLPA went along with it and took money from two franchises that actually pay their players and gave it to teams that don't.  Pretty lame move by Demaurice and his crew.

3- Now if they Redskins are able to recoup cap room, will they be active?

There is nothing that tells me they won't be.  The obvious place of need on the offensive side is right tackle.  As for right tackle, Tyler Polumbus has been OK at times but does give you what you need week to week at right tackle.

Good news is there is a boat load of tackles coming up in free agency.  I can't see the Skins missing out on grabbing at least one there.  From top notch tackles like Ryan Clady to solid performers like Sebastian Volmer, there is a lot of talent there.  Many like Clady could be franchised but some will slip through.  It is a good year to have that position as a need.

If they strikeout in free agency, there should be some possibilities in the 2nd round to grab a tackle as well which would be a good question for draft guru Steve Shoup.  Roy Helu's future is very questionable so I would expect Shanahan to look for a better option as a receiver out of the back field in either free agency or more likely in the middle of the draft.  Grabbing backs in the draft is his thing so expect it to be there.

4- As for the defensive side, there is one obvious place to look.

By the numbers you would think this team needs an overhaul of talent but I don't see that happening.  I cannot see any major moves in the front seven based on who is already under contract.  As for the secondary you would have to think any of the four spots could change.

First and foremost the Redskins will have to find a free safety this offseason.  Most seem to peg that second round pick but I would first want to see what happens with Jarius Byrd in Buffalo.  I still wouldn't count out Ed Reed either if he still wants to play after the Super Bowl and if Baltimore can't afford him back.

I am pretty sure Josh Wilson will be one of the starters at corner but as for the other spot it is very questionable.  DeAngelo wants to come back but the Skins no way can pay him what he is slated to get.  He said he is willing to come back for less so the question is do they want to deal with DenAngelo's act anymore?  He could come back as a 3rd corner or as a free safety but I feel the Skins need to upgrade at corner alongside Wilson.

Chase Minnefield is a wildcard coming off injury as well but that is far from a lock.  The team would benefit from the return of healthy Brandon Merriweather but his ability to stay healthy is a concern.

5- Final Question is who we may not see back in 2013.

Crazy I have gotten to #5 and haven't mentioned Fred Davis.  I do think he will be back with this team because they seem to value what he can do very much.  Next up is Santana Moss.  I think they figure out a way to keep him around.  I think there are more questions about the futures of Josh Morgan and Leonard Hankerson than Moss.  If I had to guess all three are back though unless Washington makes a shocking grab on a guy like Bowe or Wallace.

Sorry but I can't expect Chris Cooley to be back especially if Fred Davis is.  And if Davis isn't then I figure the Skins would look for another tight end before bringing back Cooley.

Big question is what will London Fletcher do?  I was kinda shocked that he even mentioned retirement after the Seattle loss, but hope it’s not true.  Even a year older, he can still help this team.  Working in Keenan Robinson will most likely happen, but I don't want to see Fletcher go out like this.

 

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by Steve Shoup

Updated Washington Redskins Cap Situation:

January 9, 2013 in Redskins Offseason

While there will be plenty of time to get into the nuts and bolts of the offseason, I thought now might be a good time for a quick review of the Redskins cap situation for 2013 (assuming the penalty remains in place). I previous wrote about the Redskins cap situation  and potential savings from cutting players  back in November, while some of the information has changed it can be considered a good primer for salaries and savings. The most updated information regarding the salary cap comes from John Clayton's latest mailbag. Clayton has the Redskins $4.2 million under the cap for 2012, which carries over into 2013. Even after that carryover the Redskins are $4 million over the cap for next season.

On the surface that $4 million doesn't seem like a significant amount of money for the Skins next offseason, particularly since it comes from before the Redskins cut anyone, there is a lot more to it than that. That cap number doesn't reflect players not under contract, including restricted free agents. It also doesn't allow for the $1-2 million needed to be free so the Redskins can draft players in April.

The Washington Redskins currently don't have under contract their starting right tackle Tyler Polumbus, left guard Kory Lichtensteiger, free safety Madieu Williams, nickel corner Cedric Griffin, and punter Sav Rocca as well as key reserves DL Kedric Golston, QB Rex Grossman, LB Lorenzo Alexander, DL Chris Baker and OL Jordan Black. Also restricted free agents are not included which includes FB Darrel Young, TE Logan Paulsen and top reserve OLB Rob Jackson. If the Redskins were to re-sign all of these guys to very moderate deals, it would be an additional $8-12 million against the cap. This means the Redskins would need to clear at least $12 million from the payroll, even if they don't upgrade a single position (outside the draft).

The Redskins will have a number of tough decisions to make in the coming weeks on how they can get under the salary cap and resign their own players, not to mention potentially trying to free up room to upgrade a spot or two. It won't be impossible to free up the necessary money, though any cuts would create new holes on the roster as well.

What are your thoughts on where the Redskins stand in relation to the cap?

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by Steve Shoup

Washington Redskins Potential Cap Savings

November 8, 2012 in Redskins Offseason

Potential Cuts and Savings:

-Yesterday I looked at the Redskins salary cap situation heading into 2013. Not surprising with the cap penalty the Redskins are currently projected to be over the cap by $4 million (actually it is more because they would need to sign 10 minimum players to fill out a roster). Today I will look at some potential cuts and savings for the Redskins, and how it might all turn out at the end of the day.

Jammal Brown: $1.5 million in savings ($3.3 still counts against the cap)

Santana Moss: $4.15 million in savings ($2 million still counts)

Adam Carriker: $3.25 million in savings ($1.5 million still counts)

London Fletcher: $4 million in savings ($3.25 million still counts)

DeAngelo Hall: $8 million in savings

Josh Wilson: $3.9 million in savings ($1.43 still counts)

Brandon Meriweather: $1.35 million in savings ($1.65 million still counts)

Reed Doughty: $1.15 million in savings

Total Savings: $27.3 million ($13.13 million in dead cap)

If all eight players were to be cut, the Redskins would have $80.87 in contracts (and dead money) tied up in 33 players. That would put them $23.62 under (this is not taking into account restricted free agents or re-signing any guys) their $104.47 million cap. While that sounds like a major shopping spree, the Redskins would have to spread that money around to 18 players (an average of $1.31 per player). Given that of those 18 players the Redskins may need to find a starting fullback, tight end, left guard, right tackle, slot receiver, defensive end, inside linebacker, two starting corner backs, a third corner, and two starting safeties. That is 13 positions, none of them that will come for under $1 million (unless filled with 3rd round or later draft picks). The Redskins can hope a few guys step into some of these starting roles (Josh LeRibeus, Leonard Hankerson, Jarvis Jenkins, etc.), but the Redskins would still need to look for some capable back-ups. The Washington Redskins will need to decide what players are worth cutting, and which ones they should potentially hang-on to. Here are my predictions and reasons for these eight players:

DeAngelo Hall:

-This absolutely has to happen, the Redskins can shave a clean $8 million off the books, which not only puts the Redskins below their cap, but would give them enough money to sign their draft class. Hall can be a playmaker at times, but he also has consistently been a liability due to his poor coverage ability. He's also had repeated costly penalties and blow-ups that has hurt this team. Cutting him and making a clean break is in the best interest of the team.

Jammal Brown:

-Brown needs to be an automatic cut, the Redskins can't afford to keep giving him chances and wasting money in the process. Even when he's been "healthy" he's been a huge weakness on offense. The Redskins could attempt to designate him a post June 1st cut, saving themselves an additional $2.2 million next year, but at the cost of cutting into their 2014 cap. The Redskins should just bite the bullet now and release him for next year to get the burden over with.

Reed Doughty:

-Doughty isn't highly paid, but at this point the Redskins can't justify his contract. Guys like Jordan Pugh and Jordan Bernstein can take over the back-up safeties duties at a cheaper rate.

London Fletcher:

-Fletcher is a tough player to cut, but I think the Redskins have to do it. His play has really dropped off and that $4 million in savings could be huge since the Redskins at least have a chance of replacing him internally with Keenan Robinson.

Adam Carriker:

-Coming off a major injury the Redskins can't afford to give Carriker that extra $3.5 million. That is a significant savings and this is a position the Redskins could hopefully fill internally with Jarvis Jenkins, and Kedric Golston (if they re-sign him). Carriker is at best an average 3-4 DE, and he's being paid like a starting caliber one, making this a fairly easy decision.

Santana Moss:

Many people would say this is a no-brainer, but I don't think it is that simple. Moss has been the Redskins most consistent and productive receiver this year (despite limited playing time). He's also shown a willingness to help out in the punt return game (an offer the Redskins coaches should take him up on). While it is tough to justify paying Moss given the resources given to the other receivers, but can they afford to cut him. Who knows how Pierre Garcon comes back from injury, and Fred Davis is far from a sure thing to return. The Redskins may try to reduce his salary with a restructure, but I wouldn't say he is definitely going to be cut.

Brandon Meriweather:

-Meriweather has been a huge disappointment so far, as multiple injuries have kept him out since the middle of the preseason. He's coming off back-to-back poor years, and being unwanted by two of the top defensive coaches in the league. Meriweather's low savings amount could save him as the Redskins may not have the budget for a top replacement safety. If the Redskins do get the chance to land a top guy, then Meriweather will probably get cut, if not they will hope to salvage something from him in 2013.

Josh Wilson:

-Wilson despite what some might think has been the Redskins top corner back each of the last two years. He might not be as flashy as Hall, but Wilson does a better job of limiting catches. Cutting him makes little sense as the Redskins can't really expect to find a comparable replacement for the $3.9 million in savings.

Total Savings Cutting Hall, Brown, Doughty, Fletcher and Carriker: $18.15 million

-This should be enough to bring back the three free agents I mentioned yesterday, as well as tendering the two restricted free agents likely to be back. It would also cover the $2.5-4 million in draft salaries. After paying for all of that, the Redskins would be an estimated $6 million under the salary cap, which should be enough for two moderate signings and filling out the roster with minimum guys. If money becomes tight Meriweather and Moss could be casualties as well, and definitely could be on the block if they have a chance for a big time secondary free agent. It likely won't be the free agent bonanza that the Redskins are used to, but that is probably a good thing. They should let the market set the prices instead of signing their guys early, before any asking prices come down. You might lose your top target, but you can maximize your return by getting those players for less. When you are a team with as many holes as the Washington Redskins, maximizing the return is crucial.

Who do you think should be cut, and what positions would you look to focus that money?

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Picture of Steve Shoup

by Steve Shoup

Washington Redskins 2013 Salary Cap Projection

November 7, 2012 in Redskins Offseason

At the bye week I thought it would be a good time to look at the Washington Redskins 2013 Salary Cap projection. There are some new realities for the Washington Redskins as some players who it looked like the Redskins would need to spend on (Fred Davis), maybe now won't be worth big money. It has also become increasingly clear that the Redskins have a number of needs that they will want to fill for next season, but with the salary cap penalty hanging over their head, will they have the resources to do so? All numbers are from Spotrac, with a couple exceptions of finding better data elsewhere. As always there is a margin of error here in the neighborhood of $3-5 million, but this should give us a solid base-line to work with. I will present the numbers then give some analysis and projections afterwards:

Salary Cap Projections:

Quarterbacks:

Robert Griffin III: $4.789
Kirk Cousins: $0.598

Running backs:

Alfred Morris: $0.511
Evan Royster: $0.555
Roy Helu Jr.: $0.672
Keiland Williams: $0.630

Tight End:

Niles Paul: $0.600K

Wide Receiver:

Pierre Garcon: $8.2
Santana Moss: $6.167
Josh Morgan: $6.75
Leonard Hankerson: $ 0.732
Dezmon Briscoe: $0.575
Aldrick Robinson: $0.480

Offensive Line:

Trent Williams: $8.00
Jammal Brown: $4.8
Chris Chester: $4.3
Will Montgomery: $2.837
Josh LeRibeus: $0.644
Adam Gettis: $0.530
Maurice Hurt: $0.555

TOTAL: $52.925 for 20 players

Defense:

Defensive Line:

Barry Cofield: $6.3
Stephen Bowen: $5.5
Adam Carriker: $4.75
Jarvis Jenkins: $1.304
Chris Neild: $0.567
Doug Worthington: $0.480

Linebackers:

London Fletcher: $7.25
Brian Orakpo: $4.7
Ryan Kerrigan: $2.378
Perry Riley: $0.672
Keenan Robinson: $0.585
Mario Addison: $0.555

Cornerbacks:

DeAngelo Hall: $8.00
Josh Wilson: $5.333
Richard Crawford: $0.496

Safeties:

Brandon Meriweather: $3.00
Reed Doughty: $1.15
DeJon Gomes: $0.602
Jordan Bernstein: $0.480
Jordan Pugh: $0.640

TOTAL: $54.742 20 players

Specialists:

K Kai Forbath: $0.480

Overall Total: $108.147 for 41 players

Restricted Free Agents:

FB Darrel Young, TE Logan Paulsen, KR Brandon Banks, LS Nick Sundberg

Restricted Tags for 2012 (should slightly increase):

First Refusal/Original Round: $1.26

Second Round: $1.927

First Round: $2.742

Prediction: Barring any major setback both Darrel Young and Logan Paulsen will be tenured contacts. Both at the least are solid contibutors and both would be big losses in the rushing attack of the Redskins due to their blocking. Nick Sundberg is a good shot to return, but it will likely be for the veteran minimum (roughly $700K) to save the Redskins some money. Given his continued struggles it would be an absolute shock to see Brandon Banks return (even at a reduced rate). Now that Paulsen is a starter, the Redskins may be forced to tenure Paulsen at the 2nd round level to ensure that someone doesn't sign him to a bigger contract. Given the Redskins cap situation, even another team offering $3 million a year could force the Redskins to not match the offer. The numbers will be slightly higher for next year, so potentially look to add $100K-200K to each of these tag numbers, but it shouldn't be much higher than that.

Total estimate: $2.5 million- $3.18 million (before any increase)

Free Agents:

TE Fred Davis, TE Chris Cooley, OLB Rob Jackson, OLB Chris Wilson, LB Lorenzo Alexander, OL Jordan Black, OL Tyler Polumbus, OL Kory Lichtensteiger, QB Rex Grossman, DL Chris Baker, DL Kedric Golston, CB David Jones, CB Cedric Griffin, S Madieu Williams, S Tanard Jackson, P Sav Rocca, LS Justin Snow,

It is very likely that at least a couple of these guys will return. Obviously Fred Davis is the biggest name, but he also presents the biggest question mark given his injury. The team will probably be okay offering an incentive laden deal, or a one year-prove me contract, but it is not clear if Davis would return. Either way it would cost the Redskins at least $1-2 million in 2013. Other players like Lorenzo Alexander, Rob Jackson, Kedric Golston, Sav Rocca and Tyler Polumbus would all be targets to sign to ensure some level of depth for this team. The problem is all of them would look to cost north of $1 million. Now perhaps you could sign some of them to 2 or 3 year deals to save a couple $100K this next year. That can be a tough sell though since none of these guys are above replacement level when you really think about it. They are the type of guys that you hope over the next couple of draft classes you can find younger and cheaper replacements for. Kory Lichtensteiger is a starter, and a favorite of Mike Shanahan, but can he really justify giving him $3-4 million a year (at least) that he will likely be looking for? He's had a number of issues during his time in Washington, and he's simply not worth any sort of investment. A couple of other guys like Cedric Griffin, Chris Baker, and Chris Cooley could be considered, but are probably longer shots to return.

Prediction: I think Lorenzo Alexander, Tyler Polumbus, and Kedric Golston return. Alexander obviously has special teams ability and is versatile enough to help back-up both ILB and OLB. Polumbus will hopefully return as a depth tackle, who can also fill in at guard if desperate. Golston has been solid this year to help fill in for the loss of Carriker, and given that the Redskins may need to make a cut or two along the defensive line to get some cap space, he makes sense as a target to return. I think the Redskins will offer Davis about a $1 million with incentives, but it wouldn't shock me to see him leave and find a similar offer elsewhere. Sav Rocca could return, but can the Skins justify spending $1.5 million or more on a punter given their cap situation? I think they will look to find a young guy who can be had for the minimum. Rob Jackson could return, but is he worth $1 million plus, I don't really think so. I think the Redskins would rather find a pure pass rusher for a back-up OLB spot.

Estimated Contracts: Tough to say, but a $3 million estimate is fair to bring back Alexander, Polumbus and Golston.

 

Where They Stand Versus the Cap:

The Salary Cap is expected to be $121 million for 2013. Currently the Washington Redskins are $3.3 million under the 2012 salary cap which carries over (assuming they don’t spend anymore of it) to 2013. That brings the Redskins starting point to $124.3 million. Before any cuts next offseason the Redskins are already facing a $1.83 dead cap penalty charge for cutting Chris Cooley prior to the 2012 season. That drops the Redskins available total to $122.47, which falls to $104.47 after accounting for the $18 million cap penalty. That puts them $4 million over, even before tendering any restricted free agents, signing any of your own free agents, or any draft picks/outside free agents (they need to add 10 players who will count against the cap). If you add in the restricted free agents (low end estimate) and the guys likely back, you are now at $113.67 million, and still 5 players short of the Rule of 51.

I will detail some potential cuts and savings of particular players tomorrow, as well as analyze the priority for next season tomorrow, but what is your feeling among the restricted and unrestricted free agents. Who do you see returning, and who would you let walk?

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