While I got some negative feedback from my forum post on whether or not the Nationals should pursue Albert Pujols next offseason, I think it is a real possibility. The Nationals have money to spend next year and a big hole (overall) at 1B, so I fully expect them to be in hot pursuit of either Pujols or Prince Fielder, and it wouldn't be too surprising if the Orioles end up with the other one. Now I know most fans would say 'not happening', but if you look around the league, there aren't as many suitors as you'd expect.
Here's a look at why or why not every team in the league could be in the market for these two sluggers with the O's and Nats being held until Part II:
A.L. East:
Boston Red Sox: They have the money to spend, but with just signing Adrian Gonzalez they aren't in the market for a 1B.
New York Yankees: Much like the Sox, they have the money but not the need with Mark Teixeira manning 1B
Tampa Bay Rays: They can't come close to affording either of these players.
Toronto Blue Jays: They could be a bit of a sleeper, they have a good bit of cost control in the next few years and can move Adam Lind to DH, a middle of the order of Jose Bautista, Lind and one of these two guys would be impressive. Money could be an issue though.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox: Chicago just spent big bucks on Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko so they seem safely off the market
Detroit Tigers: They are highly invested in Miguel Cabrera, and don't seem likely to move him to DH (especially with the Victor Martinez signing).
Minnesota Twins: While the Twins could swing it maybe financially, they have Justin Morneau under contract for another two years. Also they are more likely to use their money on pitching or middle infield help.
Cleveland Indians: Adding one of these two bats would be intriguing for a young team on the rise, but they simply don't have the money.
Kansas City Royals: Money makes this a no go for the Royals, but they have a bright young future at 1B so they shouldn't be too disappointed.
AL West:
Oakland Athletics: While they have some money coming off the books, making a big splash isn't their style.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners aren't shy about spending money and they have some bad contracts coming off the books so they are a possibility. They do have a good young prospect in Justin Smoak at 1B, but they could move him to D.H. If they do get in the market, Fielder would be their target as LH power plays better there.
LA Angels: While it is hard to exactly predict Kendrys Morales future, Mark Trumbo has filled in brilliantly for the Angels. They could look to make a splash next year, but the Angels would likely have to significantly raise payroll as Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar are all due significant raises via arbitration.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers are thought to be a potential suitor, but I'm not sure I see it. They need to lock up long term both Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, as well as finding some quality pitching. Maybe if they find a way to move Michael Young's salary, but other than that I think money will get pretty tight.
NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phils are locked in with Ryan Howard so this is a no go.
Atlanta Braves: It's not really the Braves style, and they have Freddie Freeman as the future, but it isn't the worst idea. If they can move Derek Lowe's contract, then they can consider going after one of these two. It's not likely to happen, but I wouldn't rule it out completely if Lowe gets dealt this year.
Florida Marlins: I know the Marlins might start spending with the new stadium, but I don't see them coming close to making a splash like this.
New York Mets: The Mets are a tough team to predict. On one hand their financial situation is looking a lot better with their new minority owner, but they were so over budget, they might not be as big of spenders. They do have $40 million coming off the books in Beltran and a number of players that they have already released, but they will need to give Jose Reyes a big raise and fill in quite a few other needs. With Ike Davis being solid at 1B, I see the Mets using their money on other areas, but they are def. a wildcard.
NL Central:
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are widely considered one of the major suitors for these two, but I'm not so sure if it makes sense. While the reports of their debt problems not being an issue, it is out there. Also, despite having a ton of money come off the books next year, they are still going to be saddled with Soriano's and Zambrano's contract. The other issue the Cubs have is going to be just their overall talent level. Sure Starlin Castro is a stud, and Garza is a pretty good pitcher, but beyond that there isn't much here to work with. The Cubs have a long road to recovery, and just landing a Pujols or Fielder probably isn't the answer.
St. Louis Cardinals: Now the Cards are going to do what they can to bring back Pujols, so they can't be counted out, but their funds could be limited, so I don't know if it gets done.
Milwaukee Brewers: I don't think there is any chance the Brewers can pay either one of these guys despite the fact that they would love to.
Cincinnati Reds: With Joey Votto in the fold their is no need to jump into this market.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Bucs are rebuilding and have a bright future, but they simply don't have the money to do this.
Houston Astros: Astros are in a full rebuilding mode now and while a new ownership group could want to spend I don't see this happening. Not to mention Brett Wallace has been a good addition to this team.
NL West:
Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs haven't spent much in a while and probably won't start with a major splash like this. They also have a couple good young 1B in the minors so I'm guessing that will keep them out of this market.
Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton still gives Colorado solid production, and I don't see the Rockies making a huge splash.
San Diego Padres: The Padres didn't have the money to resign Adrian Gonzalez so this is a non-starter.
San Francisco Giants: Top prospect Brandon Belt makes it unlikely, and the fact that they are paying for bad contracts to Huff, Rowand and Zito means it probably won't happen. The Giants are likely to spend their resources at improving at a couple areas instead of going all-in at a position they could be set at with Belt.
LA Dodgers: A year ago this made a ton of sense. The Dodgers are a big market team, that has a ton of money coming off the books next year. And despite all that money coming off the books, they still are left with a solid core of players to build around a Pujols/Fielder. Also, 1B was a huge void with James Loney being among the league's worst starters. Now though with the current financial situation of the team, I don't think there is any shot that they spend this much on a single player. I'd also be shocked if either Pujols or Fielder would even consider going to the Dodgers at this point.
Conclusion:
There aren't many clear suitors for the two slugging first basemen, with the Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets, Angels, and Rangers probably being the most likely (Cardinals are solely for Pujols). And one of the most talked about, the Cubs, has a dismal outlook that probably will keep them from landing one of the two sluggers. As for the rest (as well as a few more wildcards) there isn't a real clear cut front runner. This is why speculation is mounting that both the Nationals and the Orioles could be landing spots for these two bats. In part II I'll look at the cases for each team, and see who might fit where.