The Trade:  The Washington Nationals traded OF Josh Willingham to the Oakland A’s for RP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown (AAA):

Why this deal makes sense for the Athletics: Oakland needed to continue to add bats to their lineup and they landed a big one with Josh Willingham. After already adding Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus to their roster, Willingham represents the final piece to the puzzle and a true impact bat. His injury history and final year remaining on his contract help keep his price low, as the A’s didn’t need to surrender any of their top prospects. Willingham does seem open to an extension, but if he does leave should net the A’s two draft picks. Willingham thrived in his two year stint in Washington, posting a combined .856 OPS. Injuries slowed him down this past season and he missed the final third of the year, but he still proved himself to be a very productive hitter. His WAR of 2.7 was top 10 in the league for LF’s despite the missed time, and had he been healthy, he would have been over a 4 win player.

Why This Deal Makes Sense For The Nationals: With the addition of Jayson Werth, Josh Willingham was a redundant player on the Nationals, and he was a trade candidate even before the signing. Willingham is in the final year of his deal, and wasn’t likely to be resigned by the Nationals. Given the outrage of losing Adam Dunn for just a pair of draft picks, the Nationals probably wanted to capitalize on Willingham now, instead of chancing it at the deadline. The Nationals received two young prospects for Willingham that they will have control of for 6 full seasons. Rodriguez could one day pitch at the back of the Nationals bullpen, while Brown has the tools to be the Nationals future every day center fielder.

Why I Don’t Like This Deal: For me this is selling a bit low on Willingham, and I’ve been arguing for a Willingham trade since the July 2009 trading deadline. While I understand that Willingham’s injury history and single year remaining on his deal kept his value low, he also will be paid at a significantly reduced price this year and bring back draft picks if the A’s don’t resign him. Willingham might not be a true superstar (i.e. Matt Holliday), but a .378 wOBA is very impressive and should warrant a bigger return.

Here is my take on the two prospects they received:

RHP Henry Rodriguez: I know a lot of hype will surround Rodriguez as a fair return for Willingham in the coming days, but I’m not buying. Rodriguez who will turn 24 before the start of the season has an electric arm, but little else to go with it. While his fastball can dial up to 100mph, and sits in the 96-99 range, he doesn’t control it well enough. His slider and changeup also project as Major League pitches, but without being able to throw at least one of his three pitches for strikes, he remains a risk. Relievers, even one with the potential to close don’t bring a ton of value unless you are confident in their ability to reach that potential. While Rodriguez could prove me wrong, I think the Nationals are taking a big risk here. For me he shouldn’t be the ‘centerpiece’ in a trade for a bat like Josh Willingham. The one positive I see about adding him, is that it could provide the Nationals with the depth to trade either Burnett and/or Clippard for another piece.

OF Corey Brown: I’m actually a big Corey Brown fan. But since the first part of their trade (Rodriguez) is a risk in my book, I would have hoped the Nationals got more value in the rest of this deal. In fact I believe that Brown is really the ‘centerpiece’ of this trade, despite the fact he has lost some of his prospect luster these past few years. Brown struggled mightily during a AAA promotion last season, but I still believe in his overall potential. He will need to figure it out soon as he will be 25 this season, and his window for success is closing. Right now Brown looks more like a league average outfielder, though if he can play center field his value does improve. Brown possesses both power and speed, and if all goes well could be ready by midseason for the the Nationals. Brown is still far from a sure thing, and while he improves the Nationals center field depth, he doesn’t eliminate the problem.

ANALYSIS: I think the A’s won this deal. While it wasn’t a landslide, I think the Nationals might regret this trade. Neither Rodriguez or Brown are what I’d classify as sure things, and are more likely to be moderate major leaguers (i.e. a middle reliever and 4th outfielder) than stars. If the Nats had been able to get  a 3rd or a 4th piece at least a quantity argument could be made, but as it stands I think their return is a little light.

In Part I I discussed potential trades the Nationals should make the rest of this offseason to reshape their team. Part II I will discuss what free agent signings the Nationals should look at the rest of the way.

Adam LaRoche: The Nationals have been rumored to be after LaRoche for a little while now, and it makes perfect sense. He’s not going to break the bank, but he is a great fit for the Nats. He will hit about 25+ home runs a year with an OPS around .825, and he plays pretty good defense as well. For some reason he gets very little credit, and despite having multiple teams after him, I think he will be a bargain on the free agent market. You will probably have to offer at least a 2-year with an option deal, or potentially 3 guaranteed years, but LaRoche is worth it. LaRoche would be a very good lefty bat to break up Zimmerman, Werth, and Morse in the lineup.

Derek Lee: Lee has a similar profile to LaRoche, moderate power, low-mid .800′s OPS, good defense and left-handed. There are two major differences though. One, Lee has a more extensive injury history, so some risk is there. Two, Lee is a couple of years older, so the potential for a steep decline is real. Signing Lee for one year or one year with an option isn’t a bad idea, and you could even trade him at the deadline. The only problem is you’d have to also acquire a young 1B who could be ready by mid-year. A guy like Lars Anderson from the Red Sox could be an option, but it would mean using one of your trade chips from Part I.

Brandon Webb: Now since the Nationals did’t acquire Cliff Lee, signing Brandon Webb to an incentive laden contract would be a solid fall back plan. Webb at one time was an ace who would have commanded $20 million a year like Lee, but injuries these last two years has made him a major risk. Now he probably won’t be ready for opening day, but if you believe he can regain at least 75% of his effectiveness it would be a good signing.

Kevin Millwood: Now Millwood got rocked last year in the AL East, but I think he could have a bounce back year in the National League. Yes, a 4-16 record isn’t too promising, but some of his other numbers point to more success. Both his FIP and xFIP were both under 5 (compared to his ERA that was 5.10). That shows that Millwood was hurt by both poor fielding and an unluckiness with homeruns. When you also factor in playing in the American League East, I think he could be a solid 4.25 or less ERA in the National League. With the uncertainty of a guy like Webb, Millwood would be a good signing to hedge your bets with. Only a couple million guaranteed with maybe $2 million more in incentives would be well worth it for your 5th starter. While the Nationals have some young, interesting options, last year proved they need more consistency.

Jon Rauch: In Part One I advocated trading some of their bullpen depth to try to acquire some young major league ready prospects (or at least close to ML ready). Signing Rauch would be the counter-balance to ensure that the bullpen doesn’t become too weak. Since the Nats didn’t land Lee they will have plenty of money to spend, so no need to save money on the bullpen. As with any moderately known reliever, you can always trade them at the deadline for a solid prospect or two if you are out of the race. Rauch has some ability to help close if need be, but otherwise he is a very valuable 7th-8th inning guy. He’s got great command and was a fan favorite his last stint in Washington, and seems like a no-brainer for the Nationals.

Brian Fuentes: Fuentes like Rauch would be another back of the bullpen option, but really shouldn’t be a team’s closer. He struggled some during his time with the Angels, but really improved after the Twins acquired him midseason. He isn’t as dominate as he once was, but he is a lefty and should provide similar value to what Sean Burnett would have given the Nats. There will be a solid market for his services, but I think the Nationals can land him.

Bobby Jenks: Why not! Jenks was the one time closer for the White Sox, but they look to be moving in a different direction and being a non-tender he doesn’t cost the Nationals a draft pick. While his strike out rate has fluctuated in the past and has some cause for concern, he is coming off a good year (despite what most White Sox fans think) and could help ease Drew Storen into the closer role. If Jenks comes back strong and puts up big numbers (which could happen in the NL in a more neutral park), he could have BIG time trade value (i.e. twice what the Nats dealt Capps for). Now Jenks will cost a pretty penny in terms of money, but should be well worth it to the Nationals. Nats fans will appreciate his ability to avoid the long ball (which is pretty impressive considering he was in the AL in one of the best HR hitting ballparks).

Conclusion: LaRoche and Lee are a ‘one or the other’ situation, but the rest of these guys could all be Nationals this year. Webb and Millwood won’t make up for missing out on Lee, but the upside of Webb combined with the solid innings by Millwood do improve the Nationals in 2011. They aren’t a long term solution, but a decent (and cheap) stopgap option. There presence could help lead to a Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis trade if either have value at the deadline. I know most Nats fans will have the most issue with trading Clippard and Burnett and replacing them with Rauch, Fuentes, and Jenks. Yes there are some lesser options the Nats could explore, but if they aren’t spending big bucks on Cliff Lee, why not invest in the bullpen. First of all, none of these guys will cost a draft pick, and two, 1 or 2 of them could be traded at the deadline for some good prospects. Yes, other teams could pursue these relievers instead of trading for Clippard or Burnett, but low to mid market teams (even some of the big boys) might rather trade their prospect depth than pay the full price on these relievers. The Nationals, who have plenty of payroll flexibility can afford the $12-15 million it will cost to add these guys. When you factor in the prospects/young players the Nationals could acquire for Clippard and Burnett, it is well worth investing that much money for bullpen help. These trades and signings won’t totally put the Nationals in the playoff hunt, but it does move them closer. And if a few of their guys develop correctly, they will be there in a couple of years.

Earlier we covered the Nationals pursuit of Cliff Lee and their backup plan if they can’t land the ace. What about the other moves the Nationals should make the rest of this offseason? Well in addition to a staff ace the Nationals need a first baseman, a center fielder and some bullpen help (in that order). Now the free agent market can’t provide all the solutions, so the Nationals will also need to explore the trade market as well.

TRADE MARKET:

Trade Chips:

Josh Willingham – Willingham might have just one year remaining on his contract, but he comes cheap and should bring back draft pick compensation for any club that acquires him. A number of contenders including Detroit, Cincinnati, Dodgers, Angels and Rays could be interested. The Athletics, Orioles and Mariners are also rumored to be interested.

Tyler Clippard- Clippard has revitalized his career as a back of the bullpen option and is very capable of being a setup man/closer for a number of teams (most contenders will see him as a setup man). His control isn’t the greatest, but he has a high strikeout rate and has continued to show signs of improving. He has at least 4 more years of team control, which should make him very marketable considering middle relievers are getting $3-4 million a year from some teams. He won’t be easy for the Nats to part with, but with Storen and some other bullpen options they can survive without him. In addition the Nationals are more likely to spend money on a free agent than a number of other teams, so if he can bring back a good young starting prospect or an every day positional fix for CF or 1B the Nationals have to do it.

Sean Burnett- Burnett is very similar to Clippard, with the exception that he only has 2 years remaining of team control. His salary should still be under $2 million this year making him an attractive option. Also Burnett is a lefty, who has the ability to be pretty sound against right handers as well. Both Clippard and Burnett will appeal to just about any team in baseball, but contenders will be the most likely scenario.

Derek Norris- Norris might be the best prospect you’ve never heard of (unless your a Nationals fan). He is one of the top catching prospects in the game and should be a lock for most top 50 lists. He is very likely to stay behind the plate and should be a strong offensive catcher if he does. It is not impossible to see him develop into a Brian McCann type of player. He is still probably two years away, but the Nationals have a promising young catcher in Wilson Ramos, and could move Norris in a major deal.

Jesus Flores- Flores has barely played the last two seasons, but he still could have some trade value simply because he is a cheap catcher with upside. The Nationals already have Ramos and Pudge Rodriguez for next year and Norris waiting in the wings. Given his injury history he can’t headline a deal, but he could be used in a smaller deal or for a lesser piece. Cardinals, Orioles, Rangers, Padres, Dodgers and the Yankees (assuming they don’t land Russel Martin) could all be interested in Flores.

Trades I’d Look to Make:

Josh Willingham to the Tigers for Andrew Oliver (SP): There is no guarantee the Tigers (or the Nationals) would do this deal, but I think it makes sense for both sides. Detroit needs left field help, and while signing Magglio Ordonez is an option, they might look to upgrade to Willingham here. While there is a risk of Willingham there for only one year, the Tigers would get draft picks if he leaves. Oliver is a power lefty pitcher who struggled last year (his first year overall in professional ball) in his major league debut with the Tigers. He did pitch well in both AA and AAA, but it is clear he isn’t major league ready for a contending team. For the Nationals they could have him work in the minors, or he could make the Major League rotation (esp. if Cliff Lee doesn’t sign) out of Spring Training. While there is some thought of him being a frontline pitcher, he profiles more of a 3 or a 4. There might be a lesser prospect involved from the Tigers as well, but Oliver would be good value for Willingham if the Nats can get it.

Trade Tyler Clippard or Sean Burnett to the Twins for Ben Revere or Joe Benson (CF’s): The Twins bullpen took a major hit this offseason with a number of free agent departures. In addition Matt Capps is under contract for just one more season and Joe Nathan is coming back from a major arm injury. To say that the Twins could use back of the bullpen arms is a gross understatement, and either Clippard or Burnett should interest them. As for deciding between Revere or Benson, your guess is as good as mine, because I want both of them on my team. Either player could be expendable for the Twins since they have better options both behind and in front of Benson/Revere for their long term CF option. Benson will probably hit for enough power to play a corner spot, but he has the most value as a CF. He is a better all around player with a better defensive arm, and very good power (should hit 20+ Hr’s in the majors). Revere on the other hand is a burner (though Benson has some wheels as well), and could easily sit atop the lineup as a leadoff hitter. He is a major base stealing threat and hits for a much better average. He could develop into an on-base machine, but he must maintain his OBP and steal rate to have value since he has about zero power. Revere is basically Major League ready, though Benson isn’t far behind him. Depending on which reliever the Twins like more and whether the Nats are getting Benson or Revere will determine the rest of the package. It won’t be much (though I wish it could be both), but one or two other solid prospects could be added to the deal.

Trade Clippard/Burnett to the Rays for Nick Barnese (RHP) and Kyle Lobstein (LHP): The Rays, like the Twins had their bullpen hit hard in free agency and could use some cost control options to stay in their payroll range. Tampa would probably prefer Clippard given the longer cost control, but could also use a lefty reliever. Barnese and Lobstein are two solid pitching prospects, but not among the Rays top pitching prospects. They are both 2+ years away, but project as middle of the rotation starters. It would be a solid return for the Nationals as it would add some quality depth to their farm system.

Trade Jesus Flores to the Cardinals for 1B/OF/3B Allen Craig: The Nats would probably need to add a minor prospect, but if the Cardinals aren’t satisfied with Bryan Anderson as their backup catcher, Flores would be a great option. Craig is extremely redundant in St. Louis with no starting spot in sight. Craig wouldn’t necessarily have a starting role in Washington though his utility should allow for him to receive a couple hundred at bats. He would be a great insurance policy in case the Nats don’t get a first baseman or Micheal Morse can’t repeat his 2010 success. The Nats would probably perfer a LH bench option, but I imagine Craig will interest them.

I know the Nationals chances for landing Cliff Lee look dim after both the Yankees and the Rangers increased their offer yesterday, but I wouldn’t count them out just yet. The Nationals have the money to spend and if they want to, they can match any offer to Lee. Also, as the Jayson Werth deal showed, they are willing to offer a contract that goes above the consensus of what a player is worth.

Many people were surprised that the Nationals were able to offer Werth that kind of contract, as well as be in on Cliff Lee, but I think it is time we stop thinking of the Nationals as a small market team. They are in a top 10 television market and share in owning a television deal with the Baltimore Orioles which gives them even more expansive coverage. While the Orioles own the lion-share of MASN still, the Nationals own a significant percentage (that continues to grow each year), as well as a price guarantee for their broadcast rights. Despite having the lowest viewership in the country, the Nationals have been making quite a profit for their broadcast rights. Washington D.C. is also surrounded with many of the richest counties in the country throughout Northern Virginia and Maryland, as well as a number of companies. Both of which should make selling their luxury boxes and premium seats fairly easy when there is a quality product on the field. Combine that with one of the richest owners in the country, and the Nationals should have no trouble affording Werth and Lee.

In addition to their various revenue streams, the Nationals have two other things going for them to be big spenders in free agency. The first is the fact that their payroll has been pretty low since they’ve moved to Washington. Meaning they have some money saved up to afford to splurge on some big name free agents. The second is that even if they sign Cliff Lee for $25 million a year, their payroll will be just around $90 million. Which isn’t bad when you consider they added two of the top free agents for a combined $43 million year. (*Note I assumed they signed a 1B like LaRoche or Lee for roughly the same money that Willingham will make. Which will make it a wash when they trade him). The Nationals will also have another $11 million coming off the books after this season, giving them more financial freedom in the future.

The Nationals should have no problem maintaining a payroll north of $100 million if they are competitive, given the added benefits of a rich owner and previous savings it can be even higher. Washington is also blessed in the fact that they don’t have a single significant free agent for the next three years (again assuming Willingham is traded). Everyone of their key contributors or stars are locked up for at least that long (and most aren’t eligible for 5 or more years). This gives the Nationals a window to spend big on the open market before they need to extend R. Zimmerman, J. Zimmermann, Strasburg, Harper and anyone else. Also by spending now, they can build the fan base to support them giving even more lucrative deals to their own stars in the future. In addition, if the Nationals become a contender, guys like Zimmerman, Strasburg and Harper might be interested in staying around awhile longer.

So what does all of this mean, and what kind of contract can they offer Cliff Lee? If I’m the Nationals, I offer Cliff Lee a 6-year $168 million contract. I would have the first five years average $26 million, with $25 million in the 6th year. I would add both a 7th and 8th option year at $20 million a piece, with a $13 million buyout for the first option and a $5 million buyout for the 2nd option year. The high buyout in year 7 would be almost like a guarantee that it would be picked up, but protect the Nationals if he can’t pitch effectively any longer. With the 7th year almost guaranteed, Lee’s 7 year total will be $180 million (when you count the 2nd buyout at $5 million). That would give Lee a 7 year average of $25.7 million, but the Nationals would have their ace.

Now it is possible that Lee could still choose the Yankees or Rangers, but it would be mighty hard for Lee to turn down between $168-180 million, plus a few nice perks, if the Nationals offer it to him. If Lee doesn’t come to Washington, the Nationals need to have a Plan B. Unfortunately the pitching market is pretty bare after Lee, with Carl Pavano being the next best option. Pavano is a nice pitcher, but far from an ace. The Nationals might not want to get into a bidding war for a mid-rotation starter like Pavano.

It is likely the Nationals will turn to the trade market, but top targets like Zack Greinke and Matt Garza aren’t great fits for the Nationals because of how much they cost. Now their salaries aren’t the problem, but what they cost in terms of prospects is. Both the Royals and the Rays want to be blown away in a deal (as they rightly should), and the Nats don’t have the farm system depth to ‘blow them away’ and not significantly hurt their future. Geinke may be worth Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Derek Norris and a few other prospects, but that would leave more holes than it is filling. The Nationals need an ace in front of Zimmermann, not a pitcher replacing him.

Right now the trade market isn’t going to bring any stars to the Nationals unless they hurt their future. Instead I’d do a combination; and add a prospect (likely in a Willingham deal) who is nearly major league ready, a injury reclamation type (i.e.  Brandon Webb/Chien-Ming Wang), and a veteran starter on a one year deal (i.e. Kevin Millwood, Jeff Francis etc.). No that group won’t come close to producing like Lee or Greinke, but they can make up for a Pavano/Garza type of pitcher, with the chance of being even better (depending on the prospect or reclamation project). It’s not a perfect solution, but it prevents the likes of Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin etc. from making too many starts. It would also keep the Nationals young major league talent together, and allow them to use some of their relief/minor league depth to trade for a young center fielder, which is an area of need.

From the Nationals perspective, the Red Sox signing of Carl Crawford for 7 years $142 million was an utter disaster. After the Nationals signed Jayson Werth, it looked as though Crawford might be out of the picture for the Red Sox, since they were already spending big money on Adrian Gonzalez. That meant that the Red Sox were likely suitors for the Nationals’ Josh Willingham in the trade market. Also with the Red Sox making another big move, it just about forces the Yankees to increase their offer to Cliff Lee.

Despite needing a RH bat, the Sox likely won’t have any remaining interest in Josh Willingham, and if they did it would be more of a role player than a starter. Despite trading away a couple of good prospects for Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox farm system had a lot of players that could interest the Nationals. It also hurts because it takes away a likely suitor, meaning that offers from other teams might not be as strong. While normally you’d say that the other teams who lost out on Crawford would be in on Willingham, but the Angels and Yankees haven’t been linked too much to the Nationals outfielder. The Tigers were another Crawford suitor and they could get into the Willingham market, but considering they were a bit of a long shot for Crawford, they were already going to be a suitor.

Crawford’s signing has a huge impact on the Cliff Lee negotiations, because it puts the Yankees into a deep corner. Had the Yankees missed out on Lee, their fall back plan was to sign Crawford and trade for a pitcher. Now with Crawford off the board, signing Lee is basically a must. The Yankees seemed to want to hold firm at a 6-year deal under the $150 million (i.e. $25 million a year) threshold, but with Boston making two huge moves how can they? If the Yankees held firm to 6 years under that $150 million mark, the Nats could have had a chance if they offered a 7th year or even just an option for a 7th year (and the $5-10 million buyout that would come with it). Now the Yankees are offering a 7th year and will likely increase their per year offer. While the Nationals could match that deal, it is unlikely they could really exceed it. At this point it is hard to believe the Yankees will miss out on Lee after the Red Sox have made additions like Crawford and Gonazlez.

I wouldn’t say the Nationals are completely out on Cliff Lee, but things got harder with the Crawford signing. Losing the Sox as a suitor for Josh Willingham hurts as well, though I still think he will be traded in the coming weeks. The Winter Meetings obviously started out with a bang for the Nationals as they landed Jayson Werth, but the Crawford deal at the close definitely hurt the Nationals offseason plan.

I have been a big proponent of the Nationals signing Adam LaRoche for quite some time, so I was pretty excited to see this post on MLB TradeRumors. While there isn’t any details yet, that is a fairly definitive statement by a veteran reporter. Also it makes a lot of sense. The Nationals were known to be targeting both Carlos Pena and Adam LaRoche. With Pena now signed with the Cubs, the Nationals need to move on LaRoche or be left with lesser options.

Now I know LaRoche won’t make fans forget about Adam Dunn, but he is better than most people give him credit for. No he won’t slug 35-40 HR’s, but 25-30 aren’t too shabby. He will likely post an OPS in the .825-850 range, and is known as a pretty good defensive first baseman. He also gives the Nationals a legit left handed power hitter to split up all the right-handed hitters in the lineup.

Hopefully the Nats can get this deal done soon, which could also help facilitate a Josh Willingham trade, since they will have a real first base option and won’t need to use either Willingham or Morse there. Likely the would deal for pitching though it could be for CF help or even a young 1B to replace LaRoche down the road. Either way a LaRoche signing makes the Nationals stronger, and combined with Werth allows them to move Willingham to further strengthen this team.

What do you guys think?

The Buzz around the Winter Meetings today seems to be with the Nationals potentially making Cliff Lee an offer he can’t refuse. Though it should be noted that local reporter Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post quashed some of the hype. While rumors are known to fly at the Winter Meetings, I do think there could be a glimmer of hope for Cliff Lee in Washington. I think some of the hype could be agents talking or speculating after the Nationals gave 7 years and $126 million. But when there is this much smoke, there is likely some fire as well.

Seven year deals to any pitcher are insane, much less when they are 32 years old. That being said, I hope the Nationals make this deal, if for no other reason to give them a chance to be successful. The years and money might be an overpay, but it wouldn’t hurt the development of the team. The only pitcher on either the trade or free agent market close to Lee in talent is Zack Greinke, and he would cost the Nationals a fortune in terms of prospects/young players. Also, while Greinke might make just over half of what Lee will make per year, he is only signed for two seasons at which point he will look for a Lee like extension (note he is younger and a safer bet to give that kind of money to). While he might be cheaper he won’t be under team control during a period which the Nationals will be true contenders. In addition if they end up giving up 5 pieces, they likely aren’t deep enough to replace all of that talent. In which case the Nationals would need to go out on the free agent market to fill their holes and likely pay even more money.

The fact of the matter is this deal will make sense as long as it doesn’t truly hinder their development in other areas. If the Nationals start cutting back on their draft budget or skimp on free agent deals (and extensions) down the line than this doesn’t make sense. But if the Nationals are willing to admit that the 6th and 7th years of Werth and potentially Lee might be ‘wasted’ money, and still field a full payroll (considering the fact that the Nationals have been ‘saving’ money the past few years on a below average product they should be able to afford it), then it is a great deal. A Cliff Lee, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann rotation in 2012 very well could match any starting 3 in the league. And when you think about it, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are far superior players than anyone in the Giants lineup, and they just won the World Series. Is Lee and championship dreams a long shot? Sure, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a reality.

Just a few days after lamenting losing out on one of their best sluggers (Adam Dunn), the Washington Nationals went out an inked one of the top free agents on the market, Jayson Werth. To land Werth the Nationals had to open up their checkbooks quite a bit, paying a reported $126 million over 7 years. While there is a lot like and hate about this deal, one thing that is abundantly clear is that the Nationals are willing to spend money.

The Good: With Adam Dunn’s departure and a potential trade of Josh Willingham the Nationals offense was looking pretty scary (and not in a good way) for next season. Werth gives Washington a second legitimate hitter behind Ryan Zimmerman in their lineup, as well as giving them a plus defender in the outfield. Werth doesn’t have as much power as Dunn, but hits at a higher rate to equal him out. Werth even has the versatility that the Nationals might even use him in center field this upcoming season (really not sure how long that can last).

The Bad: Werth is a late bloomer so he is already 31 years old, and 7 years from now the Nationals could have their share of regrets. The $18 million a year is a bit of an overpayment, but the 7 years is what really makes this contract look risky. If you were an American League club you could just stick Werth at DH his last couple years, but being in the National league it is likely that his plus glove will be a big negative by the end of this deal. There is also a pretty real question of how will Werth’s numbers look outside of Citizen’s Bank Park. Werth’s OPS last year was .161 points higher at home than on the road. Now some of that is normal as players usually hit better at home than on the road (unless you play somewhere like Petco park), but normally you are talking about a .40-.60 point swing. If Werth’s numbers fall a little bit that contract could look ugly fast. Werth does have a career .970 OPS in 100 plate appearances in Nats Park, but that also comes with facing the Nationals rotation, which likely inflates those numbers.

The Verdict: 7 years for a $126 million is pretty risky, and makes less sense since the Nationals aren’t real contenders, but I like this move for the Nationals. Did they overpay, of course they did but they had to do something to put this franchise on the map. This signing isn’t for this season (though it helps appease the fans), but rather for next year when Stephen Strasburg returns and Bryce Harper could be ready to make the leap. Washington may still end up as no better than the 4th best team in the NL East, but at least they are trying to get better. If the Nationals are smart they will look to ‘pay for’ the final two-three years of this deal from their budgets in the next year or two. That way if 5 years from Now Werth isn’t cutting it, the Nationals can trade him (and eat most of the contract), cut him, or make him a platoon player without it truly affecting their budget. No matter how good or bad he is there should never be a debate as to whether or not the Nationals can afford a competitive payroll, because of this deal. Now I know that type of accounting gets teams, businesses and governments into financial trouble, but if you need to overpay you need to be prepared for the consequences and not take it out on your team. It’s a risky signing no doubt for the Nationals, but one that I really can’t fault them for, or get angry about.

The biggest surprise of this offseason so far is the report that the Arizona Diamondbacks are listening to offers for their young star outfielder Justin Upton. While every team in baseball should have some interest, it will be the most aggressive one that lands the future star. With any luck, that team will be the Washington Nationals. With Colby Rasmus seemingly off the trade market, the Nationals should go for another young star from that epic 2005 draft class.

What will it take: Players like Upton aren’t usually on the trade market so it is hard to peg his actual value, but it will be significant. Upton is just 23 years old and already has one All-Star game under his belt (2009). He has amazing power potential, and showed that in 2009 by slugging .532. His strikeout rate his high, but his walk rate is improving and is considered very good for a player in his early 20′s. In addition to his potential power Upton brings good speed to the table, which should account for 20+ steals a year and a handful of triples. Upton’s speed and strong arm makes him one of the better defensive corner outfielders, and he still has room to improve.

Upton had already signed a long term extension with the Diamondbacks, and he has 5 years remaining on that deal. He has about $50 million remaining on his contract, though most of it is back-loaded into the final two years of the deal. If he keeps developing like everyone expects him to, he will be well worth the money and a cornerstone piece for whatever team acquires him.

Given his talent, contract, age, and potential Upton will cost quite a bit. I would imagine it will cost between 5-7 quality, cost controlled, young prospects. Now it is known the Diamondbacks want both major league ready talent and prospects, but as for what they will actually accept, little is known. In the untouchable department the Nationals should only have Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg (the 2010 draft picks are ineligible to be traded at this time, so no Harper involved). In the ‘tough to swallow, but hope to not have to ‘give up’ department, the Nationals should try to keep Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen. All four have bright young futures with the Nats, but if one needed to be included in a deal to land Upton, it very well could be worth it. Outside of those 6 players though, anyone on the Nationals major or minor league teams should be able to be included. Now Josh Willingham and Sean Burnett have a lot of trade value, but likely won’t interest the D-backs too much as they look to rebuild (though they could be part of a 3-way trade).

So WHO Can the Nats Offer?:

My 6 player package would include prospects: C Derek Norris, 1B Chris Marrero, SP Brad Peacock. Along with young major leaguers LHP Ross Detwiler, OF Roger Bernadina (Nyjer Morgan would also be an option), and RP Tyler Clippard. (*Editors note: I originally had this as a 6 player deal, but am now amending it to include a 7th prospect. I am also going to put into a play a 5 player deal as well.) The last prospect I give them a choice between OF Micheal Burgess or OF Eury Perez

Derek Norris: Norris is quickly becoming one of the best catching prospects in the game as he has great plate discipline and big time power. He still needs to work on his defensive aspects of being a catcher (mainly blocking balls and calling the game), but he has all the tools to develop into an All-Star quality catcher. He still is a couple of years away (at least 2), but is easily a top 40 prospect in the game right now.

Chris Marrero: Marrero was the Nats 1st round pick in 2006, and has major power potential. He hasn’t unlocked it totally yet, which along with his below average defense likely makes him more of a league average 1B than a star. He is just 22, so the power could still come and being at Double-A he is nearly major league ready. Arizona could use another young 1B, and Marrero would be a solid option. He likely needs another year of seasoning, but the power potential is there.

Brad Peacock: Peacock at 22 has developed into one of the Nationals top pitching prospects. He just made it to Double-A at the end of last season, so he will likely need at least 2 more full years before he is ready. But he has the profile of a quality 3rd starter. He has a big time fastball that he registers a number of stikeouts with, but he still needs to work on his control, as walks have gotten him into trouble. He has a bright future ahead of him and gives Arizona a quality young arm.

Tyler Clippard: If the Nationals are going to keep Storen, they will have to part with Clippard. Clippard has redefined himself as a very good back of the bullpen pitcher. He has the potential to close and is a big time strikeout guy, but still walks more batters than you’d like to see for your closer. Clippard was inconsistent at times, but part of that could be from overuse. While he was a former starter, Clippard’s 91.0 innings pitched were 2nd among relievers. With 5 years of team control remaining and plenty of talent, Clippard is an attractive piece for the the Diamondbacks.

Ross Detwiler: Detwiler was the Nationals 1st round pick in 2007, and he has faced mixed success. Detwiler has done very well in the minors, though injuries have slowed down his progress. His stints in the majors have had mixed results as well, though little can be gleaned from them just yet. Detwiler no longer has the profile of a quality number 2 pitcher, but still has the upside of a very good number 3. Being a lefty and just at the age of 25, I think Detwiler still has a good bit of value on the trade market, though probably not the headliner he once was. Arizona has been collecting young starters and Detwiler would be another quality addition to that group. And with 5 years of team control remaining, I’d expect the Diamondbacks to be very interested.

Roger Bernadina: Bernadina has been around in the Nationals system forever, but he is just 26 years old. He finally showed himself worthy of regular playing time, until his numbers collapsed in the last couple months of the season. He has the ability to play any outfield position, though he defensively profiles best in a corner spot. Bernadina’s game is based on speed, but he has enough power to add 30 doubles and 15 home runs a year (as well as a 5+ triples). Consistency is his overall problem, and it is quite possible that he just needs regular playing time in one position as opposed to platooning. Bernadina has 4 more years of service time, and will help replace the loss of Upton in the outfield.

Micheal Burgess: Burgess has big time power, and has shown some signs of developing into a quality starting corner outfielder, but he still needs some work. He has the arm for right field but not the greatest instincts to play there. He still needs to work on cutting down his strikeouts and hitting better breaking pitches. He is in Double-A and still just 22 years old so he has plenty of potential left. He needs at least a year and half before he is ready, but could end up being a starter in Arizona by that time.

Eury Perez: Perez is one of the Nationals most exciting young prospects and he was even named to the Futures Game last season. He is a very good defensive centerfielder with exceptional speed. He is still pretty streaky at the plate and has about zero power to fall back on, but he can fly. If he learns better plate discipline and takes a few more walks he could be the starting caliber CF/leadoff man that everyone expects him to be. He is still a bit raw and is most likely 3-4 years away, but he has great potential.

My Five player package: C Derek Norris, SP Jordan Zimmermann, RP Tyler Clippard, 1B Chris Marrero (Burgess, Perez or Peacock could all be options), OF Roger Bernadina

Jordan Zimmermann: The Nationals don’t want to give up Zimmermann, given his potential to be a very good number 2 starter in this league, but very well may need to in order to get Upton. Zimmermann is coming off Tommy John surgery, which actually could make him more appealing since the success rate (and health) of pitchers coming off TJ is very high. He has great stuff, and good command. He is still developing but would easily headline the D-Backs rotation.

Is it enough? Maybe, the Nationals are giving up some quality players here, but very little in terms of sure things. It is a good deal for Arizona, but not likely a great deal. It could take a 7th player to get this deal done, or even Storen replacing Clippard to make it work. And although Desmond and Espinosa are part of the Nats future, a deal might not get done without them (though that might cut it down to 5 players). A lot will depend on what other offers are on the table and just how inclined the Diamondbacks are to move Upton. I don’t think they’d take this deal off the bat, but that it is a solid starting point. You could see this expanded with the Diamondbacks including Mark Reynolds (who is due $13 million over the next two years), and the Nationals include a couple more young pitchers. Reynolds has big time power, but horrible plate recongition, and he strikesout more than Adam Dunn. His contract could be prohibitive for the Diamondbacks as they look to rebuild, and the Nationals could plug him in at 1B, while they look to rebuild. Arizona wants to move him and could tie him to Upton, to ensure they don’t have to pay any money to do so. Regardless of how it breaks down, the Nationals should be open to any and all counter-offers.

As for the 5-player deal giving up Zimmermann would be tough, but necessary. As good as Zimmermann could be, he hasn’t reached that potential yet (whereas Upton is already there). Now I’d try to retain both Detwiler and Peacock, to keep the Nats pitching as well stocked as possible, but would be willing to include one of them if necessary. Given Perez’s he would be the first position player I’d want to keep out of the deal, with Burgess a close second. I know it would be a tougher deal for Nats fans to get their heads around, but I think Upton is worth that type of package.

Why the Nats Should Have an Interest: Now Nationals fans will look at this proposed deal and likely be very upset, since it involves a number of their ‘big name’ young players. But Justin Upton has limitless potential, and there was a distinct reason he was drafted 1st overall in 2005. Two things that work in the Nationals favor in terms of going after Upton are the fact that Upton is from Virginia, and the familiarity amongst the Nationals brass with Justin Upton.

Upton has a limited no-trade clause (4 teams), but it is unlikely the Nationals are one of those teams (or even if they were, that they couldn’t convince him to come to D.C.), given the fact that he grew up in Virginia. Upton grew up in Chesapeake Virginia, and his older brother B.J. played on the same AAU team as Nationals star Ryan Zimmerman (Justin was too young to play with them, but was the bat boy), so he has some familiarity with the Nationals star. In addition to his being from the area and knowing Zimmerman, the Nationals front office knows Upton very well. General Manger Mike Rizzo was the Assistant GM in Arizona when Upton was drafted, and other members of the Nationals front office also were with the Diamondbacks at that time. They more than any other team know just how special Upton can be, and what he can do going forward. With Mike Rizzo looking to add star talent this offseason, Upton could be at the top of his target list.

With Upton, Zimmerman, and Harper, the Nationals would have an exceptional young corps that would be supplemented with C Wilson Ramos, Desmond and Espinosa. If the Nationals want to build a future contender, adding a talent like Upton is a must. Now trading for him would make it harder to trade for a young pitcher, but there really aren’t many good options on the market right now. In fact a big trade to acquire someone like Upton could actually increase the chances of Cliff Lee signing in D.C. (slightly), if he believes the Nationals are truly looking to add All-Star talent around him. Even if it doesn’t help land a big free agent this year, it is the right move for Washington.