Easiest Road For A Number 1 seed: Tie, Kansas and Duke-

I think overall Duke and Kansas have the best brackets to propel them into the Final Four. Neither team should face much of a challenge as they advance through their bracket, and in fact I think in both cases they only have one real challenge facing them.

For Duke that challenge will come in the Sweet 16 as Texas is a team capable of matching up well with them. If they get past Texas neither of their two likely Elite 8 matchups, really scares me. UConn is a very good young team, but they are really a one man show, which I think Duke can handle. On top of that the Huskies just won 5 games in 5 days, including the last four against ranked opponents, to win the Big East Tournament. While that was an incredible feat, it might leave themselves worn down for an early exit. And although I consider San Diego State a very good team, I don’t know if they can matchup with Duke’s shooting ability.

For Kansas, their challenge probably won’t come until their Elite 8 matchup with likely Notre Dame. Notre Dame made a strong case for a potential number 1 seed, and are no doubt a dangerous team with their defense and slow tempo offense. The problem is I think Kansas is one of the better teams equipped to deal with them. Kansas is very deep and experienced so I think that will play into it. Also, they aren’t an outside shooting team, so if they can get the ball into the Morris Twins, Notre Dame can’t match up.

Hardest Road To The Final Four: Ohio State

I know Ohio State is supposed to be the number 1 overall seed, but it sure doesn’t seem like they are. Their 2nd round matchup is dangerous no matter who they face. George Mason has shown before what happens when you take them too lightly. Mason doesn’t have the greatest size and speed, but then again neither do the Buckeyes. Mason plays great team basketball, and have a couple excellent shooters. Villanova on the other hand looks like an easier opponent, b/c they only finished .500 in conference play, and have lost their last 5 straight, but I wouldn’t count them out. They have good veteran talent, and a very good starting 5, with three talented guards and two big men. They have a fairly weak bench, especially among their bigs, but if they aren’t in foul trouble they are dangerous. Either game could be a major hurdle for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s road doesn’t get any easier as both their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups look pretty difficult. In the Sweet 16, they will either face Kentucky or WVU, two teams with talent and very good coaching. Both have some flaws, but are real threats to Ohio State. In the Elite 8, both UNC and Syracuse are talented, balanced teams that can upset Ohio State.

Tough But Doable Path To the Final Four: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have some tough matchups, but overall the path is doable for them. They could face a battle in round two against either last year’s Cinderella, Butlter, or Old Dominion. ODU also has the advantage of playing very close to home, so they should have a favorable crowd. While Pitt is better than either of those teams, they aren’t going to just flat out dominate them. In the Sweet 16 the Panthers could face a Kansas State team, that knocked off Kansas or a Wisconsin team that beat Ohio State. At the same time though there is such parity in this bracket that both of those teams could end up losing to either Utah State or Belmont, who are legit Cinderella team’s in their own right. In the bottom of the bracket, 2 seed Florida is a bit overseeded, but they do possess some serious future NBA talent on that roster. Three seed BYU, could be a bit short-handed, but when you have the game’s best scorer, you can never be counted out. Also, don’t forget that one of Pitt’s few losses came at the hands of 6th seed St. John’s. St. John’s is an inside/outside team with a great coach and a lot of veterans. They have a bit of an uphill climb, but they are talented to make a run.

Now I realize that writing this post will get me into some hot water with some friends and family (I guess I won’t use up all my Verizon minutes this month) for attacking UNC. But really this post is about the asinine Top-25 rankings, in particular the pre-season poll. Overall I like UNC and have nothing against them. They aren’t my favorite team by any means, but I do support them (especially since they are Duke’s biggest rival). Over the years I have throughly enjoyed watching a number of UNC stars, from Ty Lawson, to Raymond Felton and my all-time favorite UNC player Antwan Jamison. While I’m perfectly fine with UNC, what I am not fine with is the ‘walk on water’ mentality the media and basketball pundits give the Tar Heels (and other traditional powerhouses). North Carolina really has had little business being ranked in the Top-25 all season.

Yes, they have big wins over Ohio State and Michigan State but that’s about it. Last night’s loss to Wake Forest gave them 7 losses on the season, and 3 straight in the ACC. They now have back-to-back losses in Chapel Hill, plus a blowout loss at Clemson. The Tar Heels now rank 11th in the ACC and the only conference team they beat, Virginia Tech, ranks 10th. This is not exactly the resume of a high ranked team. Now they will finally be out of the poll, but I really wonder why were they still in there to begin with? After getting beat by the College of Charleston, UNC was still ranked in the top 15, and fell only three spots to 13. What other school could suffer that loss and only fall 3 spots? They should have fallen at least out of the top 15 and possibly into the 20′s.

Then after suffering two ACC losses including one at home and that blowout to Clemson, they fall 10 spots to 23. After those two losses (yes they were ranked teams, but both were ranked BEHIND UNC, so they were upsets) there is no reason the Tar Heels should have still been ranked. And the sole reason they were was because North Carolina was ranked 4th in the preseason poll. Of all the lunacy in college sports with rankings, and BCS standings, the worse travesty has to be the fact that preseason rankings can have any bearing once the season begins. There is no reason that since the voters thought UNC would be a great team before the season began, they should rank higher then teams that are actually playing better basketball then them. Where is the logic in that?

Now I know UNC apologists and rankings apologists will say, that “oh UNC lost their top 4 players” so its unfair to punish them. I get that, it is a rebuilding year for UNC and they will probably be a great team NEXT season. But right here, right now they aren’t deserving of any excuses for their artificial preseason ranking, or their current one. Last season Syracuse, UConn, and Pitt were all top teams and all of them lost plenty of talent. UConn and Syracuse lost their top 3 players, and fell in the rankings to 14th and 25th respectively. Pitt lost its top 4 players and were going to be without their other starter, and 6th man off the bench until December and fell all the way to 37th (and that’s just in the Big East).

Its one thing to expect UNC to be good, but quite another to credit them for their artificial standing. If anything, the Tar Heels should fall further then most teams, because of the level of talent they brought to the floor this season. Between the last two years they recruited 7 McDonald’s All-Americans, and everyone on that roster is a 4 or 5 star recruit. Teams like Pitt and UConn have a few of these types of players, but not a roster full of them. When UNC loses it should be a bit more of a blemish given their level of talent.

To fix this inadequacy we need to have a system where there aren’t poll rankings until after the first month of the season. This will allow teams to build their resume before we can begin to judge them. That will equal the playing field for all teams. In a case like that we would have seen a UNC team ranked between 10-15 through December, but fall hard and fast with their recent performance. That is how the top 25 should play out, without any interference of meaningless preseason or week 1 and 2 rankings. Hopefully the debacle of how the Tar Heels have performed compared to their ranking, will give some people pause enough to change a flawed system. And finally rankings will be awarded on merit and not prediction.

The National Champs loss their fourth game of the season last night, putting a bit of a dimmer on any repeat chances they might have. Though it seemed unlikely that UNC would go undefeated the rest of the way, a loss to the College of Charleston hurts quite a bit more than a loss to say Florida State or Duke (except for the whole rivalry factor). The Tar Heels first three losses came against Syracuse, Kentucky, and Texas, all Top-10 if not Top-5 teams. While UNC would have loved to have taken one of those games, those losses aren’t shocking or overly damaging to UNC’s ranking or tournament hopes. Losing to Charleston on the other hand is damaging to both.

The Tar Heels will likely maintain their Top-25 ranking, but they will drop 10+ spots. Though it’s way to early to really make any predictions about the tournament, a loss to Charleston is a major black mark on their resume. In fact, I’d say last night’s loss hurts UNC worse than their other three losses combined. Now North Carolina will enter tournament play, in a much weaker position than they ever thought they would.

The ACC is a probably a tougher conference this year than season’s past. Currently there are five ranked teams in the conference, and a few others knocking at the door. In addition to the talent at the top of the conference, the ACC has gotten stronger as a whole. There really isn’t a ‘gimme’ game on the Tar Heels schedule this season. Right now the ACC depth is on par (if not better) than the Big East’s, where any team can knock off another. UNC will need to rebound and start off this conference schedule strong, if they hope to go far this season.

Personally I think the Tar Heels will be dangerous down the stretch, they are overall a young team that should improve as the season wears on. I think they can rise to the challenge of the ACC schedule and remain a solid contender. The key for UNC, as they hope for a chance of a repeat title, is to put themselves in a position for no worse than a four seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. If they can get a couple of easy games early, then I think they could do some serious damage in the Tournament. Regardless of where they end up, the Tar Heels are one team I wouldn’t want to face in March.

At the beginning of the season if you told the Pitt Panthers that they’d end up in the Meineke Car Care Bowl (MCC from now on) they’d probably be pretty satisfied. Going in to the year Pitt would have been happy with a solid mid-range bowl, they were losing their best playmaker (LeSean McCoy) to the NFL and had serious questions at quarterback. By the end of the season, the MCC Bowl represents a major disappointment after last second losses to West Virginia and Cincinnati knocked them out of major bowl consideration.

The Tar Heels are a bit of the opposite of the Panthers, at the beginning of the season they would have been a bit disappointed to go (return) to the MCC Bowl. Despite losing their top three receivers, UNC looked like a team on the rise. With a good quarterback T.J. Yates and a top notch defense, they could have maybe made a run at the ACC title. After a disappointing season which saw them lose to both UVA and NC State (two of the ACC’s weaker teams), the Tar Heels should be pretty happy they ended up with roughly a home bowl game.

So who comes out ahead when these to teams meet on the field today? I think it will be close but I see Pitt squeaking it out in the end. Both teams have very good defenses, with UNC’s the more dominate of the two (and balanced). But Pitt has the offensive weapons to go along with their defense. Bill Stull has really come on this season to be a pretty good quarterback for the Panthers. Pittsburgh has possibly the best running back-wide receiver combo in college football with Dion Lewis and Jonathan Baldwin. Lewis has filled McCoy’s shoes and is one of the best running backs in the country despite being a true freshman. Lewis had 98 more rushing yards this season than Heisman winner Mark Ingram (despite playing in one fewer game this season). Baldwin is one of the best receivers in the nation who is overlooked because Pittsburgh is a balanced offense, with a strong running game. Baldwin was third in the nation among receivers with 1,000 or more yards in yards per catch (20.0). In addition with Baldwin and Lewis the Panthers have a number of other quality weapons who would be top receivers or running backs on most other teams. One other player that did stand out is TE Dorin Dickerson, who had 10 touchdowns this year and was named first team All-American.

Given Pitt’s offensive weapons, I think they get by the stellar Tar Heels defense, 21-17.