Part II: The Case for trading Josh Willingham and Matt Capps:

Josh Willingham: Willingham has been ultra productive in his time with the Nationals and has fully capitalized on the potential everyone saw in him in Florida. His durability, which had been an issue before, has not been a problem in a year and a half. And his defense which was shaky last season, has gone back to his career standard of being average. Willingham’s bat though is where much of his value lies and he has exceed expectations for the Nationals. Willingham is showing himself off as being a good 3^rd power option on the Nats and could be a 5^th-6^th hitter on any team.

Willingham’s value is further increased by his contract status, as he is in his 5^th year of service time, giving prospective buyers another year of team control with a price that should fall in the $6-9 million range (most likely in the mid –sevens). This makes him very affordable for a contender and gives them a good bat for two playoff runs.

Willingham isn’t an elite bat and not on the same level as Adam Dunn or Prince Fielder, but he makes a strong case for being the 3^rd best bat on the trade market (Corey Hart is in the discussion but Willingham has been far more consistent). Willingham is both cheaper this year and under another year of team control compared to Jayson Werth. Wherever you rank them, Willingham is one of the best bats available on the trade market this season if the Nationals make him available.

Willingham’s trade value will likely be less than Dunn’s on the trade market, but it won’t be by much. His positional value, contract and team control make him marketable to a number of teams. Low and mid-market contenders will find Willingham’s contract very appealing and make it more likely for them to give up young prospects. Willingham should bring two quality prospects in return, with at least one of them a ‘top 100 guy’. Also I would imagine 1-2 additional filler pieces in the deal, either young guys with a little projection or a AAAA guy who could be a bench player for Washington.

Matt Capps: As for Matt Capps, I know it must be a little tough to trade your lone All-Star representative, but it needs to be done. Capps is having a great bounce back year for the Nationals and is in just his 2nd arbitration year, meaning teams will have another year of team control at a reduced price. Capps might not be a front line closer, but given his afford-ability he will appeal to most teams even as a set-up guy. Capps isn’t a dominate closer and will make things interesting from time to time, but he gets results.

Capps’ value is further increased given the lack of quality back-end guys on the market and the number of teams looking for relief help. Capps is by far the best 8th or 9th inning guy available (unless the Royals put Soria on the market) and given his extra year he should fetch a fairly decent price. As for suitors, I think just about every team would love to strengthen their bullpen, but the most likely candidates are the Reds, Phillies and Yankees, but the Angels, Red Sox, and Rockies all could be as well. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays get involved if they want a cost controlled option for next year (as well as a much deeper bullpen this year).

As for the price for closers it is pretty hard to peg since there never seems to be any consistency and there are times where teams grossly overpay (please). That being said, it is reasonable to expect the Nationals to receive a pretty good return, given the contract, the supply (or lack their of) and the demand. I would peg the minimal return at one good prospect, one solid guy and one lesser player, but with the possibility of more if some team gets desperate.

Now I know people will argue that the goal for the Nationals shouldn’t be to have the best farm system, and that the goal is to win Major League baseball games, but the fact of the matter is you aren’t doing that so maybe it is time to put your resources to better use. Over the years the Nationals have hesitated in trading Dimitri Young, Ronnie Belliard (when he had a little value), Christian Guzman, and Chad Cordero, and all they have to show for it is a bunch of last place finishes and a lot of wasted money. Dunn, Willingham, and Capps all have significantly more value and can bring back a much higher quality of prospect. And as for the argument that having the best farm system isn’t the goal I don’t know if I fully believe that.

With the exception of the Yankees of late pretty much every team has relied heavily on their farm system, either to produce their own starter or to trade for other major pieces. Free agency can supplement a team, but it won’t build you a winner. The Nationals have a solid base but they need more young talent, and this is by far the best and quickest way to do that. While I gave approximate trade value the Nationals can increase that by adding a middle reliever or bench player to the mix as well. Washington can also look to pay part of these players salaries, which would mitigate the financial relief but could be made up into talent.

If the Nationals play their cards right they could be contending by 2012 and the benefit of doing it this way is you have set yourself up for long term success. I don’t look at this as a fire sale (even though I believe the Nats should move some other pieces like Livan, Guzman etc.) because the Nationals don’t need to trade any of these guys. I look at it as a smart baseball move that can help turn the Nationals into a perennial contender. In fact I’m all for the Nationals being very aggressive this year in the free agent market and taking a run at some of the top guys. I have no problem them trying to pursue Dunn in the offseason, but for me he isn’t a guy you can’t live without.

Even if the Nationals miss on resigning Dunn, there are plenty of solid 1B options they can pursue for a year or two. Also they might get a 1B prospect in return for one of these deals which might eliminate the need of going after a big time 1B. As for the outfield the Nationals could at least kick the tires on going after Carl Crawford, but otherwise their are a few decent 2nd tier options available. As well as any young guys they get in return for their players. Capps though is the easiest to replace with Drew Storen waiting in the wings and Tyler Clippard there to help bridge the gap. These deals might not be fan favorites in Washington, but if executed properly they will make the Nationals relevant in the National League.

With a combined $64 million doled out to starters CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez, and the emergence of Phil Hughes starting pitching would seem like it would be the Yankees greatest strength. Instead it appears to be their Achilles heel going forward. Now no one can really fault Sabathia, Pettitte or Hughes as all three of them have just dominated all season, but Vazquez and Burnett haven’t lived up to their big money contracts (also Vazquez hasn’t been worth the prospects the Yankees gave up to acquire him). Things took a turn for the worse yesterday when Andy Pettitte went on the D.L. with a groin injury that could sideline him up to 5 weeks.

In some fairness, Vazquez has looked better over the past month, and has cut over 4 runs off his ERA (it currently sits at 4.45), but he is far from a sure thing going forward. While he is overall a very good pitcher, Vazquez for some reason has struggled in New York (twice now). With the uncertainty of Burnett and the Pettitte injury, Vazquez is still a bit of a wild card for the Yankees. And while Vazquez has improved over the last month, both Hughes and Burnett have added over a run to their ERA. While Hughes is still pitching well, he isn’t dominating like he did the first two months of the season, leaving more games in the hands of a shaky bullpen. Burnett is even more troubling, as he is pretty much imploding on and off the pitching mound. In his last start after giving up a home run he injured himself by slamming his hands into a clubhouse door, during the game. The injury seemed to affect him and he didn’t last much longer, but the troubling thing is what this means going forward. There was already uncertainty about whether or not Burnett would make his next start (and how effective he will be). Now with the Pettitte injury, the pressure is on Burnett to return to form and to keep his anger in check. Pettitte had been more or less the Yankees ace this year, every fifth day taking the mound and dominating the opposition. Now the Yankees will be without their veteran starter for at least the next month and the team needs to look for other options.

While New York says they are looking internally to replace Pettitte, I have to believe they will look to make a trade. The problem is the Yankees are in a bit of a bind. They have already said they aren’t going to trade Jesus Montero their top prospect in a deal for a starter, but now their need has jumped up quite a bit. If Pettitte didn’t get injured and/or the bullpen was effective New York could have waited some middling starter as an insurance policy. Now though the Yankees need not only a starter, but a quality one, that can consistently go 7+ innings.

The market doesn’t favor New York as the top two starters remaining, Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren would definitely require Montero (or everyone else in their farm system). While New York will inquire about both players, I don’t see them getting a trade done since they have already dealt a number of their top chips in the Granderson and Vazquez deals. After Oswalt and Haren, the market thins out some Ted Lilly is an option as are Jake Westbrook and Ben Sheets (all pitchers whose contracts are up after this season). Lilly is the best of the bunch (and ironically he was traded with Westbrook 10 years ago to the Yankees), as his down year this season is still superior to what Sheets and Westbrook are doing. He also profiles as a Type-A free agent meaning the Yankees can get some draft picks back (although they will have to give up more) after the season. While Fautso Carmona and Ricky Nolasco are likely on the market, their contract status will probably make them too costly for New York (in terms of prospects). One other pitcher that might make sense to the Yankees is Paul Maholm of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He is a lefty so he will help keep that balance in the rotation, and he is under control for a reasonable amount next season. He is still fairly young and gives Pittsburgh solid innings, but he won’t cost the Yankees their top prospects.

One way or another New York needs to figure out what to do in their rotation, because while they remain in first place now, a month without Pettitte could very well leave them in 3rd. While neither the Rays or Red Sox have made moves yet, both could easily overcome the Yankees as they are presently constructed.

1. Roy Oswalt: It remains to be seen if the Astros will part with one of their favorite players, but it is probably in the best interest to the team. Houston is in a rebuilding phase, and they have one of the weakest farm systems in the league (particularly in the high minors). Oswalt is also owed $16 million next year and has a $2 million team buyout for 2012 (or $16 team option). Add in the $7 million owed to him this year still, and the Astros have plenty of reasons to look to move their ace. It is a hefty contract, which will take some teams out of the running, but Houston has said they are willing to take on salary to get a better prospect return. As for his value I would peg it in the range as to what the Phillies gave up for Cliff Lee last year, and maybe slightly less. Oswalt has a no trade clause in his contract so it could get a bit dicey, but he is still the best pitcher on the market.

2. Dan Haren: It wasn’t long ago that Haren was supposed to be the major piece acquired by the Diamondbacks to take them to the next level, now it looks like Haren may be on the move again. He still has two years ($12.75 per) left on his deal after this year, and an option year in 2013. Haren at 29 years of age is very affordable at this price and is by no means a salary dump. He is struggling a bit this season, but not horribly so. The real question remains is if the Diamondbacks will put him on the market, and what their asking price will be. Given their struggles, I’m sure they will listen on him. But since they just gave up some very talented prospects, it will probably take quite a bit to acquire Haren.

3. Ted Lilly: Lilly will actually attract more teams, given his cost (free agent after this season, and a Type-A at that) and the fact that he is left handed, but he isn’t nearly the upgrade Oswalt or Haren are. Lilly is still getting it done, and the Cubs look to be sellers this month. His price tag won’t be exorbitant (which also should interest some teams) but he should net the Cubs two solid players.

4. Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins look to move into sell mode over the next month and Nolasco will likely be one of the top players dealt. He is having another good year, and could slot into most rotations as a quality 3. He still has two arbitration years remaining after the season making him very cheap and valuable compared to a number of the other pitchers. The Marlins will want a pretty good return, but will likely move him to get the maximum value.

5. Paul Maholm: The list drops off a bit after Nolasco, but Maholm can still help a contender down the stretch. He is a middle of the rotation lefty, who gives solid innings. He won’t ever be a frontline starter, but can be a solid 4 on a contender. He still has $6.5 (2011 season and a buyout in 2012) remaining after this year, which is pretty affordable. He won’t cost a ton in a return package, which helps increase his value. The Pirates are definitely entering a sell mode and Maholm will be one of their top chips.

1. 1B Prince Fielder- Fielder isn’t fully on the market, but if so would be the best power bat available. His defense is suspect and he might be a DH long term, but for right now he could still fill the need for a first baseman. Fielder has one more year of Arbitration, so he has added value of not being a rental (for some teams), but it should be a hefty price tag, probably north of $14 million for next season, which could eliminate some suitors. All in all though, Fielder is the best hitter on the market, if the Brewers decided to sell.

2. 1B Adam Dunn- Dunn doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but he is one of the best power hitters in the league, and he is having a great year at the plate overall. He is an impending free agent, so he probably won’t be as expensive to acquire. He does project to be a Type-A free agent meaning any team would receive two picks for him if he left this offseason, which does increase his value. Dunn has a played the outfield in the past, but he has seemingly found his home at first base, and should be viewed strictly as a 1B/DH. It’s not a 100% certain the Nats make him available (they are talking extension), but if they do he will greatly improve one team’s pennant race aspirations.

3. OF Jayson Werth- Werth is an odd name to be on the list since the Phillies are in the middle of a playoff race, but they have their top prospect Dominic Brown waiting in the wings and could use Werth to acquire a top pitcher. Philly knows Werth will be playing somewhere else next season, so if they can get a return that can help them this year they may pull the trigger. The only problem is Brown would need to produce from day one, and that plan could easily backfire. I think it is far from certain that Werth is dealt, but the possibility is there.

4. OF Josh Willingham- Willingham has one more year of arbitration after this season, and will probably get something in the $8-10 million range. Considering he has just over $2 million left on his contract this year, and he is in the midst of a career year that’s a pretty good price to pay. Willingham is about a .280-25-90 guy, but has shown some flashes of improving on those numbers. His defense has also been much better this season, making him a good buy for N.L. teams as well. It still remains to be seen in the Nationals will trade him, but it is likely in their best long term interest to move him while his stock is so high.

5. OF Corey Hart- Hart is in the midst of a career season and is the only All-Star on the list, but is ranked below the others because his production screams of a fluke. It’s not to say that Hart doesn’t have value, but his 22 home runs and .928 OPS seems unsustainable. Especially for next year, Hart’s last under team control. The past two season’s Hart’s OPS has been in the .750′s, which puts his numbers this year in serious question. Hart does have value, and I get why the Brewers want to sell high, but he comes with a buyer beware tag.