By Guest Blogger Geoff Nelowet:

There has been a lot of talk that the New York Knicks had little reason to make this trade since Carmelo Anthony was willing to sign with them in the offseason, which obviously would have allowed the Knicks to hold onto a ton of assets. I think, though, that it’s hard to really gauge how obvious it is that Carmelo was a lock to sign with the Knicks from the open market. We don’t really know what was said between Carmelo’s party, the Nuggets and the Knicks, but I think it would have been worth rolling the dice. The Knicks have given away a ton to pick up a second superstar, which is generally an acceptable proposition, but the Knicks really aren’t in position to contend for a title in the near future.

One of the biggest drawbacks to making this deal now, though, is that it could prevent them from signing Chris Paul or Deron Williams down the road, and I think this is the biggest issue with the trade. Because Melo will be signing an extension as opposed to a free agent contract, he can sign at the Joe Johnson rate, which could be the absolute max: 6 years, $119 million. If the Knicks can’t put together a superstar trio (a la Miami, an unproven model at this point), they’re left with very few options if they want to contend for a title. From here on out, they’re likely a 50-win team, so there is no more rebuilding, and free agency is really their only option for getting better.

At this point, they have two superstars, a good but aging point guard in Chauncey Billups who isn’t a substantial upgrade over Raymond Felton, a solid rookie at shooting guard in Landry Fields, a hole at center, and an empty bench. This team is grossly unbalanced, and they won’t be able to afford resigning Fields in 2012 if they intend on going after another star. It’s hard to imagine that they’ll be a serious championship contender, and even if they bring in a Chris Paul, how great will that team really be? The general consensus will still be that Miami’s trio will be markedly better than New York’s, and not to mention the teams that are currently better than Miami.

The NBA is run by superstars, and the elite fifteen to twenty players in the league dictate virtually everything, and when one of those players is made available, it’s sensical to think that a team such as New York would give away a huge number of assets in order to add a second superstar to their team, but this deal just doesn’t make that much sense, and especially when looking at the current NBA landscape.  The Knicks could be a much better situation if they cultivated their young talent over the next two seasons and waited for 2012 in hopes of luring a Dwight Howard and maybe even a Chris Paul as well. Putting Dwight Howard with any other superstar equates to a championship team. Giving away your bench and all meaningful role players to play two or three-on-five basketball really won’t cut it, and the Miami Heat at this point look like a very good team but with very little chance of knocking off defensive juggernauts like the Celtics, Spurs or Mavericks come playoff time.

The trade itself wasn’t horrendous. The Knicks gave away a bit too much, but my issues lies with their desire to trade for Carmelo Anthony in the first place. Their roster is not equipped for him, and they’d be in substantially better shape if they had waited for free agency to sign him. If they miss out, it’s not the end of the world. They would still have a solid young core centered around Stoudemire and a huge free agent class coming up in 2012.

Winners:

San Diego Padres: The Padres have had a great year this season, despite having one of the worst offenses in the league. San Diego began to address that with trades for Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick. While they gave up solid prospects for them, they didn’t give up any of their top guys or anyone who could help them this season.There might have been better bats on the market, but Ludwick ended up being one of the best ones dealt. It remains to be seen if they added enough offense to go deep into the post season, but it was a productive deadline for San Diego nonetheless.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies added one of the top pitchers on the market and did so without giving up much in the way of talent (or money). Oswalt isn’t a true ace, but he is pretty close and should give Philadelphia a top of the rotation to match Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco. The Phillies did really well to get a lot of money thrown in, to ensure they have some financial flexibility next season. The fact that the Phillies accomplished this without giving up any of their top guys is even more impressive. Philadelphia would be higher if they added some bullpen and bench help, both of which have been issues for the team. But all around a solid deadline in Philly.

New York Yankees: The Yankees added Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood, and if this was 2006 would have had the best deadline of anyone. As it stands they added a platoon DH, a backup OF, and a middling bullpen arm. Given how talented the team is they didn’t need much, and they did strengthen both their bench and bullpen, so that is a plus. The Yankees also kept their top prospects which is a major plus (and unexpected). On the downside though I don’t think they shot high enough, especially when it comes to their pitching. With major questions in both their rotation and bullpen I’m not sure if Wood is the answer. The Yankees did well at the deadline, but by no means ensured another World Series title.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals sold a couple of redundant pieces and did a great job shedding salary and picking up some quality prospect depth. They didn’t receive any major young stars, but made some smart baseball trades. The Royals didn’t move any of their top players, which may end up being a mistake, but they will still have major value in the offseason if they want to revisit those discussions.

In between:

Los Angeles Angels: The Angels added two good players in Alberto Callapso and Dan Haren and did so at below market prices (esp. in Haren’s case). The problem is the Angels didn’t address enough of their needs, and probably didn’t do so early enough that they are pretty much out of the playoff hunt this season. The good news is Callapso and Haren are under team control for the next couple of years at solid contracts so they are winners for the future, but not pulling the trigger on bullpen/1B help will keep this team at home in October.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are similar to the Angels, they are looking at a big deficit and didn’t do much to help their cause. While it is good they didn’t overpay, Boston is basically conceding this season to the Yankees and Rays, and that’s not good for business. They did pick up Jared Saltalamachia for some low minors prospects, so that could be a big deal for them going forward, but as it stands now Boston will be sitting out the playoffs.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers were one of the more active teams in the last week adding Scott Podsednik, Octavio Dotel, Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot. Unfortunately I don’t know if they did enough to really get back into the playoff race. Dotel and Lilly are upgrades on the pitching staff, but might not be enough. Theriot is a bit of an upgrade over Dewitt whom he was traded for, but I wouldn’t say there is a huge difference. And Podsednik is a 4th outfielder. Without an impact bat Los Angeles isn’t going anywhere, and to make it worse Podsednik, Dotel, and Lilly will be free agents after the season meaning unlike some of the other teams on this list there isn’t any future value. The Dodgers also gave up some of there better prospects, meaning these deals could really come back to haunt them.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs got rid of Haren, Edwin Jackson, Chad Qualls and Chris Snyder unfortunately they didn’t get much in the way of return either. They did clean their payroll for next year and going forward (though I still don’t get the Joe Saunders acquisition) and given their level of play they needed to be a seller. I just question their return for Haren especially. In fact I think they got almost as much for Edwin Jackson as they did Dan Haren, and he isn’t half the pitcher Haren is (or has nearly as good of a contract). Arizona has a long rebuilding process, but unfortunately they didn’t add much in the way of assets to their fire sale.

Houston Astros: The Astros parted with two of their most veteran players and biggest stars. While it was necessary, the Astros had to kick in money and at the same time didn’t get major prospects in return. The best move the Astros made was trading one of those prospects (Anthony Gose), for a better and Major League ready player in Brett Wallace. The Wallace deal gives Houston a building block, but overall not nearly enough of a return considering what they gave up.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cards did a great job strengthening their rotation, but did so at a fairly high cost of Ryan Ludwick. I’ve never been a Ludwick fan, but his loss does weaken their offense going forward. In addition to weakening their starting lineup the Cards didn’t add any bench or bullpen depth, two things that could have helped them going forward.

First, I just want to say as a fan I love all three players, and am happy to have watched them and even met them at Fanfest. All three are great guys, and exceptionally nice, and all seem like stand up guys in the locker room as well. But the problem is, what is best for the Nationals future is to sacrifice the present. Dunn, Willingham and Capps are having career years (or close to it), and yet the Nationals are still in last place in the N.L. East and have the 7th worst record in all of baseball. And this is coming on the heels of having the worst record in baseball last season, with Dunn and Willingham in the middle of the lineup.

While a fan might point out that the injury bug has wrecked havoc on the pitching staff this year with Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler missing the whole season so far and Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen missing significant time, they need to realize the Nats have had a lot go right this season as well. Not only are Dunn, Willingham, and Capps exceeding expectations, but Ryan Zimmerman, Tyler Clippard, Pudge Rodriguez, and Livan Hernandez have played excellent ball as well. In addition rookies Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen and Roger Bernadina have had major contributions right off the bat. So while the injuries in their rotation have set them back, rookies and veterans alike are preforming at or well above expectations, and the Nationals are still in the bottom third of baseball. Now the optimist might say, well just wait till next year when J-Zim and Detwiler can join the rotation full time and add another piece or two in free agency, but that ignores the possibility that other players could get injured or have their performances collapse. And when it comes down to it, the Nationals (knock on wood) have been barely touched by the injury bug. Look at division rivals like the Phillies or Mets. Philadelphia has been without Placido Palanco, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and J.A. Happ for significant portions of the season and the Mets have been without Beltran all season and have been without Jon Niese and Jose Reyes for solid chunks of time as well. Are we really going to complain that we didn’t have Marquis and Zimmermann, when these teams are without front line guys?

Another problem with the ‘wait till next year approach’ is that unlike this year when the Nationals were going to have a boost of rookies, there are no more reinforcements in the upper minors for Washington to call on. With the promotions of Strasburg, Storen, Desmond and Bernadina, the well is pretty dry at the AAA and AA levels for the Nationals. What you see is what you get with this team. That means any additional talent will need to come from the free agent or trade market (and you don’t really have a ton of prospects to trade). While things are better in D.C. I’m guessing the Nationals won’t be at the top of list for many players on the open market. Without a major influx of talent (and not just one big signing) the Nationals won’t escape the N.L. East cellar much less compete for the playoffs. Unless of course they make the tough decision and trade these three players (and possibly a few others).

Now it might seem backwards that trading two-thirds of the middle of your lineup and your All-Star closer will make you a better team and closer to contention, but that is exactly what I believe. And as for just trading either Dunn or Willingham or Capps because you have Storen waiting in the wings, the Nationals need to go all out, in for a penny in for a pound. All three players have their trade value at their highest point right now, and it is time for the Nationals to cash in on them. Here is a break down as to why each player should be traded and what the Nationals should look for in return.

Adam Dunn: Dunn is the most obvious player on this list. For one thing he is the most well-known player and likely the best bat available on the trade market. Another reason why Dunn is on the list is he is an impending free agent and while it is possible the Nats either sign him long term or get draft picks back in return, neither option is a guarantee. Dunn might get a better offer on the free agent market, and while that would assure getting two draft picks, you never know where the pick from the signing team will be. It could end up being a third round pick (or worse) which doesn’t have near the value of the original first round pick. The draft pick compensation is a nice consolation prize (especially if you are a contender) and helps to increase his value in a trade, but it is not a great option for making the Nats better long term.

For one thing you need to sign the draft picks which will cost money, and secondly they need to develop, which could take 2-5 years. And even then the player could be an absolute bust. While it is possible that the prospects acquired don’t pan out either, they will be closer to the majors and should have a much higher success rate.

Dunn’s value is at an all-time high, his bat is flat out crushing the ball in a time where power numbers are down across the league. While he still strikes out a ton, he has the power numbers and OBP to make up for it. On top of the value of his bat, Dunn’s glove is no longer the liability it once was. In Dunn’s first full season at first base he has shown he can adequately (compared to being god-awful in LF) handle the position, meaning he can be targeted by teams that need both a first baseman or a DH. Dunn’s impending free agency also actually helps make him attractive to certain teams, like the Angels who’s first baseman will be back next season, or the Rays or Rangers who might not be in a position to add long term payroll. Given the relative afford-ability ($ 5+ million remaining this year) and his impending draft pick compensation, contenders shouldn’t bulk at adding his bat for the stretch run.

Dunn might not bring back a prospect package that single-handedly change the Nationals fortunes, but it should bring back a good return. It will likely be a 3-4 player deal, with two players either major league ready or should be by next season and 1-2 players likely a couple years away. Two of the players should profile as good starting caliber players, with at least one having the upside to be great. While Dunn might not elicit a top 20 prospect like Smoak or Wallace (Lee and Holliday deals) he’s not far off. At least one prospect should be in that 25-40 range (or that level if they are already in the majors), while that might make it harder for a team like the White Sox or Angels to make a deal since they don’t have anyone on that level (Trout isn’t going anywhere), that just means the 2nd and 3rd piece of the deal need to be better.

Check back later for Part II when I look at the values for Willingham and Capps and give up some prospective trade scenarios