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4 Team 5 Player Deal Shakes Up The NBA

August 12, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal: Hornets trade PG Darren Collison and F James Posey to the Pacers, who trade PF Troy Murphy to the Nets, who trade SG Courtney Lee to the Rockets, who trade G-F Trevor Ariza to the Hornets.

New Orleans: The Hornets cashed in on their best trade chip in Darren Collison and got a fair return for their efforts. Trevor Ariza is a promising athletic wing who does a little of everything well on offense, while at the same time is a stopper on defense. He isn’t going to be a dynamic scorer, but he is a solid 4th option to Paul, West and Okafor. His best asset is his defensive ability as he has the size and quickness to guard pretty much any SF in the league. As for his price tag its not a bad deal for the Hornets since he makes roughly the same as Posey (who at this point is just a high priced back up). Giving up Collison was hard, and I probably would have liked to see a future 1st round pick come back in return (even if it was 2-3 years away), but Ariza alone is a solid return.

Indiana: The Pacers are really the big winners here as they fill their biggest need in PG Darren Collison. Collison had a very nice rookie season and is poised to be a breakout player. He should be a playoff caliber PG and that is exactly what was holding the Pacers back. On top of that, Indiana controls him (cheaply I might add) for the next 4 seasons. They did have to take on an extra year of James Posey, who is a capable backup (though a bit pricey) but it isn’t a significant longterm commitment. Also Indiana saved $4 million this year, plus an additional $4 million in a luxury tax hit, that will more than pay for Posey’s salary next year. Troy Murphy is a nice ball player, and a pretty good trade chip with an expiring deal, but Indiana wasn’t likely to resign him and were able to cash him in for a young talented point guard and some cash.

New Jersey: The Nets did well here in acquiring Troy Murphy. He is a double-double 4 who should fit nicely next to Brook Lopez on the floor. His presence means they can bring Derrick Favors along slowly (which I think is key), and still have a strong starting lineup. They had the cap room so they won’t take on an luxury tax penalty. And while Courtney Lee is a nice promising player, they have some other options on the wing. The best thing about Murphy is his expiring deal, which will likely get shipped to a contender (or just someone trying to clear cap space) by the trade deadline and bring the Nets back some young players/draft picks.

Houston: This was pretty clearly a salary dump for the Rockets. They took on money last trade deadline/ this summer and needed to cut down their luxury tax bill. Giving up Ariza was probably hard, but they didn’t get nothing in return. Lee is a nice SG and is young, cheap and controllable. He should be a good option for the Rockets off the bench, while at the same time saving them some significant money.

Winner(s): I really like what the Nets, and especially the Pacers did in this deal. The Hornets made a solid move in getting Ariza, but sacrificed their best trade chip. The Rockets dumped salary but did take on an inferior player. They are a deep team, but there is no way to sell that they are better over the next few years with Lee over Ariza.

Trade Deadline Winners and Losers: Part I

August 1, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Winners:

Texas Rangers: The Texas Rangers might be in bankruptcy, but you wouldn’t know that from all the deals they have made in the past month. First they went out and traded for Cliff Lee, the best pitcher on the market, and a veteran catcher in Benji Molina. Then they added a couple of bats and infield depth in Jorge Cantu and Christian Guzman. The Rangers finished up their trading yesterday by sending one time top prospect Jarrod Saltalmacchia to the Red Sox for a pair of solid low minor leaguers, a player to be named later and cash. While the Rangers gave up one great prospect, a few good ones, and a couple of interesting pieces, they reshaped their roster and are poised for a deep playoff run (and got a lot of cash to offset the returning salary). At the same time they still have one of the deeper minor league systems, and can restock for future playoff runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Considering the fact that the Pirates hadn’t made any real moves before yesterday it is a bit shocking to see them on this list, but Pittsburgh shed a lot of dead weight off their roster and got some useful players in return. In three separate deals the Pirates traded away OF Ryan Church, INF Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco to Arizona, LHP Javier Lopez to the Giants, and RHP Octavio Dotel (and $500K) to the Dodgers. In return they got C Chris Snyder, INF Pedro Ciriaco and cash ($ 3 million) from the D-Backs, RHP Joe Martinez and OF John Bowker (AAA) from the Giants and RHP James McDonald and OF Andrew Lambo (AA). While the guys the Pirates got in return won’t set the world on fire or likely bring a pennant to Pittsburgh, they have some upside Snyder is a bit pricey for next year, but that $3 million helps, and Ciriaco, Martinez and Bowker are basically younger cheaper versions of Church, Crosby and Carrasco. McDonald and Lambo were both one time top prospects in the Dodgers system, and while their status is tarnished some they are a nice haul for Octavio Dotel and $500K. Snyder gives Pittsburgh at worst a solid platoon catcher and could end up being a solid starter. Lambo especially has the tools to develop into a good starting outfielder and at just 21 can still reboot his career. That is not a bad return for Crosby and Lopez who were free agents and Church who they were going to non-tender. Dotel had an option for next year but he was redundant and pricey in the Pirates pen. And while Carrasco has two more Arb. years remaining he is 33 years old and will cost over $1.5 million next year. When it is all said and done, the Pirates did well to add some younger talent, without really increasing payroll for next year.

Phillies Land Another Ace In Oswalt

July 30, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deals: The Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt and $11 million from the Astros for LHP J.A. Happ (MLB), OF Anthony Gose (A+) and IF Jonathan Villar (A-)

The Astros acquire 1B Brett Wallace (AAA) from the Blue Jays for OF Anthony Gose (A+)

Phillies: Philadelphia did a great job in this deal, not only acquire Oswalt for a third N.L. Title run, but to get him at the price they did. Happ is a nice back of the rotation starter, who gets by because he is a lefty (and quite a bit of luck). The fact that he headlines this deal is a huge steal for the Phillies. Gose and Villar are nice young prospects but they weren’t going to be in Philly for another 3-4 years. Neither player is going to help the Phillies win these next two seasons, but that is exactly what Oswalt will do. The best part of this deal is the fact that the Astros kicked in $11 million of the $23 million owed to Oswalt, which means the Phillies have another ace at half the price. The fact that the Phillies didn’t have to give up any more or better prospects to get that amount of money shows just how desperate the Astros were to move Oswalt.

Astros: The Astros sold low on Oswalt and only saved half the money that was owed to him so they didn’t really help their bottom line. Happ and two low minors prospects is a weak return for Oswalt, not to mention the $11 million they kicked in. While Astros fans will talk about the $12 million they saved, I don’t think it will amount to that much, because I imagine they will lose some money at the box office. Now I fully believe they should have traded Oswalt and use that money in other areas, but they will lose fans and money by making this move. The Astros should have acquired 1-2 additionals prospects or one other top prospect to even begin to get to even value for what they gave up. The only positive is they were able to flip Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace. Wallace who has already been traded for Matt Holliday and former Philly prospect Michael Taylor in the past 12 months, is a quality 1B prospect. Wallace for Gose is a great deal for the Astros since it gives them not only the higher rated prospect, but the one closest to the majors. Wallace profiles as a solid defensive 1B, who has good plate discipline and 30 HR power. He should be starting for the Astros no later than the beginning of next season, and gives Houston a quality piece to build around for the future.

Blue Jays: Toronto made a bit of a strange move by making the side deal for Gose. Wallace was a top prospect and should have commanded a similar return or could headline a major trade. Gose could profile as a high quality center fielder, but they paid a high price for him. Wallace is basically major league ready and with Lyle Overbay moving on next season (earlier if they trade him), there is a starting spot for Wallace on the Jays. While they have some other nice 1B prospects, none are as good or ready as Wallace. The Blue Jays did seem to be poised to contend by the start of the 2012 season, but now I would begin to question that timeline.

Winner: The Phillies are the big winner in this deal, not only getting Oswalt but getting money in this deal as well. As for the Astros, they soundly lost the Philly portion of this trade, but helped offset that with a big win in the Toronto side of this deal. The Blue Jays made a strange move here selling low on Wallace, who seemed like a major part of their future.

Angels Steal Haren from the Diamondbacks

July 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal: The Los Angeles Angels acquire SP Dan Haren for SP Joe Saunders, SP Pat Corbin (A+), RP Rafael Rodriguez (AAA), and a PTBNL (likely SP Tyler Skaggs (A-):

Angels: Not only did Los Angeles win this trade, but they did so in a landslide. Dan Haren might be having a bit of a down year but this is a guy whose numbers put him as one of the top 25 pitchers in the league the past 5 years. And during his past two years with the Diamondbacks he was a top 10 pitcher. Now most people might not put him in that elite of a category as he doesn’t have the dominate pitches you usually associate with an ‘ace’, but at worse he is an excellent number 2 starter. What makes him even more valuable is his age and contract. Haren will turn 30 later this year is only due about $4 million the rest of this season, and is under contract for $12.75 a year in both 2011 and 2012. Haren has a very affordable 2013 option at $15.5 which should get picked up, barring some major injury. The Angels acquired a very affordable frontline pitcher for the next 3 and a half years and really didn’t give up anything to do so. They traded more last season for Scott Kazmir who hadn’t been nearly as consistent as Haren. Now the Angels will make a solid run at a playoff berth this year, but are completely set up in their pitching rotation for 2011. All-around this is a great move by the Angels, one that will help them on the field and off, particularly as they look to attract free agents this offseason.

Diamondbacks: I keep looking at this trade and for some reason expect it to get better, but alas it does not. And unless it ends up being 3 PTBNL and they are all top prospects, this is just a bad deal. I have no problem with the Diamondbacks targeting pitching since that is the weakness in their system, though it did severely limit your return from the Angels as their top guys are all hitters. What I do have a problem with is the fact that they have nothing to show for trading their ace. Talk about selling low on a guy, of the 3 prospects the D-backs acquired just one ranked in the top 10 of Keith Law, Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, and that is Skaggs the player to be named later. Skaggs is a good prospect and has pitched well this year in low-A, but there was a couple reasons he ranked on the low end of those top 10 lists. One, he is straight out of High School and while he has pitched well this year, he is probably at least 3 years away. Secondly, while he is projectable, he is far from a sure thing and really only projects as number 3 type of pitcher. Unfortunately for Arizona fans Skaggs is the peak of this deal.

Pat Corbin is a solid prospect and another young left-hander in the midst of a good year in the lower minors. He too is probably about three years away, but he is less of a sure thing, especially when it comes to being in the starting rotation. Rafael Rodriguez is the lone righty and reliever in this deal, but he doesn’t bring much to the table. He should easily make it in the Diamondbacks horrendous bullpen, but will probably never be more than a solid middle reliever at best. From a name standpoint Joe Saunders is the headliner of this deal, but in reality he might be the weakest link. Saunders is a back of the rotation lefty starter, who gives up way too many hits and home runs. His perception and contract are inflated, given the fact that he won 33 games between 2008-2009. While he was pretty good in 2008 he pitched above his head in 2009, and his win totaled was boosted by being on a very good team (and some luck). This year his numbers have gotten worse and his win total has collapsed. What makes things worse for the D-backs is that given his previous win totals Saunders will make probably close to $6 million next season in Arbitration (and even more the year after that). That will significantly eat into the money that the Diamonbacks saved by trading Haren. And what’s worse is that Saunders isn’t worth that much on the open market, but because of P.R. issues they can’t even think of non-tendering him.

This deal was just awful for Arizona as they shouldn’t have taken back any money, much less on a guy like Saunders. Then on top of that the rest of their return wasn’t impressive at all. If I was Arizona I would have insisted on Trevor Reckling be involved in the deal in place of Saunders and a lower pitcher like Trevor Bell or bullpen prospect Jordan Walden to replace Rodriguez. Even then it wouldn’t have been a great deal since there are no sure things, but it would have been a much better return for 3 and a half years of one of the better pitchers in baseball.

Winner: It is not even close the Angels won this deal the moment Trout’s name wasn’t included or it wasn’t for 8 guys. It’s doubtful Los Angeles will ever miss any of these guys, and they set themselves up big time over these next couple of years.

Braves and Blue Jays Swap Shortstops

July 15, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal: The Atlanta Braves trade SS Yunel Escobar and LHP Jo Jo Reyes to the Blue Jays for SS Alex Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins (AA), and SS Tyler Pastornicky (A+):

Atlanta: The Braves sold low on their one-time franchise shortstop as Escobar is in the middle of the worst season of his 4-year career. While never a big power guy, Escobar had an OPS over .800 in two of his three seasons. Combined with his stellar defense, his age (27) and the fact that next season will be just his first year of Arbitration, Escobar was practically untouchable at the beginning of the season. Fast forward 3 and a half months (and show a .618 OPS) and the Braves are moving their one time star for a short term fix. Alex Gonzalez is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career with 17 home runs and 25 doubles already this season (23 and 36 are his career bests and those were in separate years). Gonzalez is also known as a pretty good defensive shortstop. He is owed another $1 million + this year, and has a team option for $2.5 million next year. The two prospects the Braves received in return are both solid guys, but neither is a top tier guy. Collins is closer to the majors and could be a part of a major league pen sometime next year. He probably won’t ever be a 8th or 9th inning guy, but should offer solid middle relief innings. Pastornicky could one day replace Escobar as the Braves SS of the future, but he is far from a sure thing. He has good speed and is considered a good defensive SS, he will need to hit more to be an every day player.

Blue Jays: Toronto did well to sell high on Gonzalez, both Escobar and Reyes are young and controllable for the foreseeable future. While Gonzalez was cheap, his numbers had been slipping and there was by no means any faith that he could put up a good year next season. Escobar on the other hand is still a talented young player, who should rebound after this disastrous first half. Escobar is neither a speed or real power guy, but he makes solid contact and gets his share of doubles. Generally he should be a .775-.825 OPS shortstop and that is all you can ask from that position. Escobar’s walk rate this year is the highest its ever been and his strikeout rate is slightly below his career average, leading me to believe that he should easily be able to turn this around. Escobar is also no slouch in the field as well, and should quickly fill Gonzalez’s defensive shoes. Reyes was once considered a top young arm in the Braves system, while he never fulfilled that promise, he is a 25-year old lefty with a solid arm. He has both started and relieved in the past, but will likely help the Jays bullpen.

My Take: I think the Braves sacrificed the future in hopes of winning now. A lot of that hope is predicated on the fact that Alex Gonzalez doesn’t nosedive, which given his career history is highly probable. Even in the Braves win the short term of this deal, I like what the Blue Jays did long term in getting Escobar. Toronto is building a good group of major leaguers and advanced prospects, that they could be ready to challenge in the A.L. East sooner rather than later. Toronto wins for me, but not by much.

Rangers Pay a Stiff Price for Cliff Lee

July 10, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Trade: The Mariners trade P Cliff Lee and RP Mark Lowe to the Rangers for 1B Justin Smoak, P Blake Beavan (AA), RP Josh Lueke (AA), 2B Matt Lawson (AA)

Rangers: Texas made a bold move yesterday trading away their top young prospect Justin Smoak along with three AA  prospects for a half a year rental of Cliff Lee and a solid relief arm in Mark Lowe. Smoak is a steep price to pay for the former Cy Young award winning pitcher, even if the Mariners did through in some cash. Smoak is one of the top young hitters in all of baseball, and while he hasn’t produced yet this season, it is only a matter of time. I think Smoak is an All-Star, middle of the order hitting first baseman and will be ready to assume that role as soon as next season. He is the guy that will likely come back and haunt the Rangers the most. In return the Rangers got Cliff Lee the ace and Mark Lowe a guy who is out till at least September. Lee does give Texas the frontline starter they need to advance in the playoffs, but he will be a free agent this fall. And given the Rangers financial situation they have no chance to resign him (even if they did that shouldn’t affect Lee’s trade value). The one plus of Lee is he will be a Type A free agent which will net Texas two premium draft picks when he signs this winter.

Mariners: I like what Seattle did with the Lee deal, especially throwing in the extra money to get a better prospect return. Seattle gave up three prospects at the beginning of the season to acquire Lee in the hopes that he would help propel them on a playoff run. Things haven’t turned out well for the Mariners as a team, but luckily Lee has been pretty dominate. Seattle actually got more in return for Lee with this deal, than what they gave up 8 months ago. Smoak is the prize, and was ranked as one of the top prospects in all of baseball before the season. Him alone is more value than the 3 prospects they gave up to acquire Lee. On top of Smoak the Mariners received three other Double-A prospects. The two best are the pitchers Beavan and Lueke. Beavan is a former 1st round pick of the Rangers and while he no longer profiles as a front of the rotation pitcher, he has been very successful at Double-A and is still just 21 years old. His ceiling might be that of a number 3 starter, but he should definitely make an MLB rotation within the next two years. Lueke is a power arm out of the bullpen and could end up a closer one day. His stock would be higher, but he was arrested for rape last year, while he ended up pleading to a much lesser offense and was released with time served, his off the field problems may keep him from ever reaching is on the field potential. The final player the Rangers gave up was 2B Matt Lawson. Lawson isn’t a top prospect and profiles as more of a utility guy in the majors, but is a hard working ball player that could be a cheap bench player for Seattle. The Mariners made the right move acquiring prospects instead of just sitting on their hands and waiting for draft picks. Draft picks are nice but they are usually 4+ years away, Smoak is ready now and Beavan and Lueke should be ready within 2 years. In addition you will have to sign the draft picks (not always and easy task) and pay them at least a combined $3 million.

Winner: I really think the Mariners are the winner in this deal, they got a potential All-Star first baseman for the next 5 years, as well as a couple other decent prospects for 3 months of Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe who has 2 more years of Arb. (but can never stay healthy). The Rangers might be a little better in the playoffs, but I don’t think they are World Series favorites. If they were going to give up Smoak they should have received a pitcher under control for a couple of years. I think this deal will end up a big win for Seattle and a big disappointment for Texas.

Jets Steal Holmes From the Steelers

April 12, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Santonio Holmes has been a 1st round pick, a 1,000 yard receiver and a Super Bowl MVP for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but because of his exploits off the field he will now be playing for the New York Jets. The Steelers shipped him off for a measly 5th round pick in the upcoming draft. Now I realize he’s been a head case off the field, and the rumor is Holmes could be suspended for the first 4 games next season, but the Jets got an absolute steal in Holmes. The Jets receivers were their biggest question mark coming into this off season, and were almost assuredly going to use either their first or second round pick on a receiver to fill that need. Now in one major move the Jets filled their biggest need, and the Steelers created a whole new one.

When this off season began, a starting caliber wide receiver wasn’t even a thought. They had Holmes and Hines Ward, with impressive rookie Mike Wallace waiting in the wings, giving them one of the best top three receiver groups in the league. The Steelers did need depth, since former second round pick Limas Sweed has yet to show he could be a quality receiver, so they went out an signed Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle. Now the need for a receiver has come back in a big way and is near the top of the charts for the Steelers. Randle El and Battle could have covered for Holmes if he was going to be suspended, but you can’t rely on them for a full 16 games. The Steelers will need to find another quality receiver in the draft, meaning they will likely have to spend one of their top 3 picks on the position. Considering the needs the Steelers have along the offensive line and at corner back, not to mention the serious depth issues at safety and outside linebacker, Pittsburgh will have to ignore one of their primary concerns to add another receiver.

Now I realize that Holmes has had his fair share of issues these past few years, but we aren’t talking about Michael Vick issues here. I am a little dumbfounded that all the Steelers got in return was a 5th round draft pick. Holmes is a top 15 receiver in the league, and while he is entering the last year of his contract, he would be worth a first round pick on merit alone. Given some of his off the field issues and probable suspension that might move down to a third round pick, but a fifth round pick is a drastic drop off. It’s even more of a head scratcher considering the number of teams in need of a wide receiver and the complete lack of first round quality receivers.

Also it’s not like the other receivers available in free agency or trade are choir boys. Terrell Owens and Brandon Marshall have had just as bad if not worse issues during their career. While usually I trust the Steelers decision making, especially when it comes to the draft, I am really left questioning this deal. It’s doubtful they could find any receiver that can match Holmes’ production next season, when the Steelers should be a Super Bowl contender. And if they try to add a receiver to just pick up part of the slack, they will have to spend a higher draft pick then they should, creating a weakness on another area of the team.

The Jets on the other hand are going all in in 2010. Both of their starting receivers will be free agents following this season, but they are both very good players and now headline a pretty good receiving corps. Now New York can use their top draft picks to make the league’s best defense even more dominate. This move may definitively move the Jets to the top of the AFC, depending on how the draft plays out for them. Holmes gives them a great play maker, who is a perfect compliment to the taller Braylon Edwards. The two of which should cause significant match up issues for opposing defenses. Holmes also is a great safety net for rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Holmes was fantastic in Pittsburgh in coming back to the ball when the play broke down and Roethlisberger was on the run. He should quickly become the go-to-guy in New York (well after the suspension is up) and a favorite of Mark Sanchez.

I credit the Jets in putting Mark Sanchez in the best possible position to succeed (except of course for throwing him into the deep end last season, by starting him from day one). Now though with the additions of Edwards and Holmes, to go along with Cotchery and Keller and the leagues best running game and offensive line, Sanchez has all the tools to take the Jets to the Super Bowl. At this point though there are no more excuses for Mark Sanchez to be anything but a top notch quarterback. The Holmes move (as well as freeing up their draft picks) is the final move on paper to take the Jets to the next level. Even if they don’t end up winning the Super Bowl, this was a fantastic bold move for New York, and one that shows their dedication to winning.

Trade Center: NBA

February 18, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Washington Wizards acquire Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the rights to Emir Preldzic, and a 1st round draft pick from Cleveland. And acquire Al Thornton from the Clippers.

The Cleveland Cavailers acquire Antawn Jamison from the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers.

The Los Angeles Clippers acquire Drew Gooden from the Wizards.

Why this works for Washington:  Money, and lots of it. The Wizards not only save over two million dollars against the cap this season, putting them right around the luxury tax line, but will save over $10 million dollars against next years cap. This will allow the Wizards the flexibility to either be very active in free agency, or to take on a bad contract to get either a draft pick or a young player. While Ilgauskas is a quality center, he will never suit up for the Wizards. Washington will either trade him by today’s deadline or work out a buyout to get under the luxury tax line. The Wizards do get three “assets” in this deal, in Thornton, the rights to Preldzic and the first round pick. Thornton should step in as small forward, but probably isn’t the Wizards long term solution for the position. His game has gotten exposed this past season and a half, and that was on a team with some decent offensive weapons. Preldzic offers little long term upside, but could be an interesting role player when he comes over from Europe.

The first round pick was the key here for Washington, as the Wizards could find a solid, young, and inexpensive player. The problem is the pick will likely be between 28-30, severely limiting the talent pool. The real upside to this deal is with Jamison and Gooden off the roster, the Wizards can give playing time to Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, to finally see if they can be starters at this level.

Why this works for Cleveland:  The Cavs were in a bit of a tough spot but made the best of the situation. Last season they stood pat at the deadline and ended up not even making it to the finals. This year, in LeBron’s contract year, they couldn’t risk not making the effort. Jamison gives them a ‘stretch 4′ who fits in well with their other power forwards who work much better in the paint. Jamison should also fit in well with Cleveland, as he’s never been a selfish player, and should adapt well to being the Cavs 2nd or 3rd option. Despite his age, he’s still an excellent scorer and a quality rebounder. Jamison is weak defensively, but is versatile enough to play some SF if James is playing either the 1 or 2. Jamison makes the league’s best team, that much better and that much deeper and that should cause the rest of the NBA some problems.

The best part about this deal for the Cavs was their ability to complete it without giving up PF J.J. Hickson, whom the Wizards desperately wanted. Hickson is developing into a solid young low-post player, and should be a key piece down the stretch for Cleveland. While the Cavs did give up Ilgauskas in the deal, he could very well be returning to Cleveland in the near future. Unless the Wizards trade him this afternoon, he will work a buyout. And while he will have a number of suitors, I’d expect the Cavs to be at the top of the list. If they do end up with Ilgauskas back (which I’d say is pretty likely) then this is a HUGE win for Cleveland and gives them a stacked lineup heading into the postseason. The only downside for the Cavs is the financial commitment this season, and in the future with Jamison and Telfair. Not only does this deal up their luxury tax bill, but it is a big chunk of change for Jamison over the next two seasons that Cleveland is on the hook for.

Why this deal works for Los Angeles:  The Clippers have worked this trade deadline beautifully. First they send PF Marcus Camby to the Trail Blazers and get back a point guard (Steve Blake) and small forward (Travis Outlaw), both of whom like Camby are expiring contracts, plus cash. Then they send out Telfair (PG) and Thornton (SF) for Gooden (PF) who has an expiring contract. With these moves, the Clippers have cleared enough room on next year’s cap to pursue this summer’s top free agents. And what’s even better, was they did so with no net loss of current talent. They didn’t need to add a good young role player or draft pick to clear cap room, and in fact picked up some additional cash. Also Outlaw could be brought back if the Clippers can’t get a major player.

Winner:  All the teams benefited in this deal, with Cleveland being the primary winner (especially if they get Ilgauskas back). The Clippers are next, and the Wizards get penalized a bit for not getting a true ‘young’ talent back for their marquee player. This deal will be valued in Cleveland based on two things; one, winning this year’s NBA Championship, and two, keeping LeBron in Cleveland this summer. For the Clippers there is no real downside to this deal, since Thornton and Telfair weren’t important pieces, but they will be judged on if they can use their free agent money wisely (for once). The Clippers have a good core of players, that if they can sign a great player they could be the next Los Angeles team raising a championship banner. For Washington, the value in this deal will be based on what they can do with the money they’ve saved and the draft pick.

Trade Center: NBA

February 14, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal:  The Washington Wizards trade G-F Caron Butler, C Brendan Haywood, and G DeShawn Stevenson to the Dallas Mavericks for G-F Josh Howard, F-C Drew Gooden, F Quinton Ross, and F James Singleton

Why This Deal Works For Washington:  Honestly it doesn’t, this is a bad deal all around for the Wizards. Yes they will shave over $20 million dollars off next years payroll, and save nearly $3 million on this season’s luxury tax bill, but that is all they got in this deal. While a lot will be made of that $20 million dollar figure, it should be remembered that its really only $14 million they saved, because Haywood’s $6 million was coming off the books regardless. It is inexcusable to package possibly your two best assets together to get only cap relief and to get rid of Stevenson’s contract. And its not as though Stevenson’s contract was a back-breaker, it was for only one more season at a relatively small rate, he is the perfect candidate for a buyout (which is likely what the Mavericks will do).

To not get a single draft pick, young player or rights to an international prospect is ridiculous. And for all the talk of this deal giving the Wizards the salary cap space to be active in next summer’s free agent market, there doesn’t seem to be much truth there. None of the good young stars are going to want to come to Washington, a team literally with no talent to build around.  And those free agents you do sign will probably be no better than Butler and Haywood, and you’ll overpay in money and years to bring them to Washington. This deal complicates things in Washington by limiting their options for the rest of the season. One potential benefit of trading away their veteran players, is that it would allow Washington to give some playing time to the young ‘talent’ that they have, Randy Foye, Nick Young, Andrey Blatche, and JaVale McGee (I personally don’t think these are future building blocks, but at least playing them would finally answer that question). Now by getting good veteran players back in the deal, such as Howard and Gooden, the Wizards will play them instead of giving minutes to their young core.

The only possible way this deal can work out for Washington is if they make additional deals to further turn around this team. Washington should now trade Antwan Jamison for the best deal they can get (hopefully getting an actual player/draft pick back in the deal), now that they are in rebuilding mode. They could look to flip Gooden and/or Howard in separate deals (you can’t package a player you just acquired for two months). Gooden could make sense in Portland, Memphis (possibly), maybe even Denver. Howard would be harder to deal, but not impossible. Another thing the Wizards could do with their new found cap space is essentially rent it out. Since it will be hard to convince top free agents to come to Washington, the Wizards could take on a short term bad contract and get a good young player and/or a draft pick for their troubles. If done properly it could be a huge benefit for Washington.

Why This Deal Works for Dallas:  This is a huge win-win deal for Dallas. By itself the deal doesn’t make the Mavericks that much more of a contender (they were already a mid-playoff team), but Butler and Haywood should fit their team better than Howard and Gooden. Haywood is a true center, and a tough defender. His offensive game is limited, but Dallas generates plenty of offense already. He now gives Dallas someone to match up against the Lakers and Nuggets bigs. Butler on paper is only a marginal upgrade over Howard, but I think this could be a case of looks being deceiving. Butler is now going from one of the leagues 5 worst teams, to one of the 5 best. He should have plenty of more opportunities (and motivation) to perform better. Not to mention having a true point guard like Jason Kidd feeding you the ball should help jump start Butler’s production. The deal also works out for Dallas next season as well. Howard would have had to been resigned (not a great proposition) where as now they have Butler for another season. And if he doesn’t work out they can always trade his expiring contract for another piece. Haywood is a free agent, but unlike Gooden, he’s a guy Dallas really would want to resign. Something they couldn’t have done if they didn’t make this deal, given their cap situation.

Winner:  Dallas by a wide margin wins this deal. They improved themselves this season, and likely next year as well (if they can resign Haywood) at the cost of taking on Stevenson’s contract, which they will probably buyout minimizing the cost. Washington is left with less trading flexibility and assets, though they do now have more money. It looks like things will get worse in DC before they get better, and this deal doesn’t give Wizards fans much in the way of confidence to a brighter future.

Trade Center: NHL Devils Acquire Kovalchuk

February 5, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

The Deal:  The New Jersey Devils acquire LW Ilya Kovalchuk and D Anssi Salmela for RW Niclas Bergfors, D Johnny Oduya, Forward Patrice Cormier, and a 1st round draft pick.

Why it makes sense for the Thrashers:  Atlanta was between a rock and a hard place here and made the best deal possible. Kovalchuk was going to be the top free agent on the market this upcoming season and was going to leave the Thrashers. While its hard for Atlanta to give up their superstar and most marketable player, they couldn’t just let him walk away in free agency for nothing. Bergfors is only 22 and has shown some promise this season. He may never be a star winger but could be a solid top-two line starter. Oduya is a pretty good defensiveman, and at 28 still has his best hockey in front of him. Cormier was one of the Devils top prospects, and should be the key to this deal for the Thrashers if he develops the way they hope. The deal could even be better for Atlanta if they can use the money they save from Kovalchuk to bring in a couple of good free agents in the offseason.

Why it makes sense for the Devils: The New Jersey Devils are 2nd in the Eastern Conference right now, despite the fact that they rank 5th worst in the league in goals scored. Kovalchuk gives them the elite scorer they need to win the Stanley Cup this year. The acquisition of Kovalchuk makes the Devils a legitimate contender to the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals. Before acquiring Kovalchuk no one wanted to play the Devils for one game due to the presence of Martin Brodeur in net, but didn’t mind a playoff series as much because the Devils didn’t have the offense to balance out Brodeur. The thought being that you could outlast Brodeur over the length of the series. But now with a scoring threat, the Devils are a team that’s dangerous in a playoff series. While the Devils gave up some young talent to acquire Kovalchuk, they didn’t give up anything major that will come back to haunt them.

Winner: Both sides filled their biggest needs with this deal; for the Devils a top notch scorer, and for the Thrashers acquiring some NHL and future talent for their rental player. Even if the Devils come up short this postseason I think this will be a good deal for them, by exciting the fan base and giving them a chance to win it all.