A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Brian Murphy

This is my preview for the American League Divisional Series.  The AL playoffs kick off Wednesday starting with the Rangers @ Rays at 1:37 and then the Yankees @ Twins at 8:37.

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

The Rangers travel to the Trop to take on the Rays, who had baseball’s best record in the regular season.  It will be interesting to see if the home-field advantage actually makes that big of a difference in this series considering Tropicana Field drew about 12,000 fans in a potential playoff-clinching game.  This is the playoffs though and the fans were rowdy two years ago in the postseason so I’d be shocked to see them not show up in large numbers.  Anyway, let’s analyze the two teams:

Pitching: The first game will be the best pitching-duel of the series as David Price takes on Cliff Lee.  Price was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season.  He pitched one time against Texas this year going 6 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and striking out 8 in a 6-4 win.  I will look to see the same type of outing from Price Wednesday against one of the most productive batting lineups in the AL.  Cliff Lee is the one pitcher on the Rangers that I can see winning a game in this series.  What he did in the postseason last year was just ridiculous and if he can repeat that, the Rangers can maybe scrap up a couple of wins.  Lee was 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this year.  However, Lee has had a rough time pitching against the Rays this year.  He lost all 3 games he pitched to the Rays going 26.2 innings, giving up 12 earned runs, and 24 hits.  EDGE: Price

Game 2: C.J. Wilson (TEX) vs. James Shields (TB).  I give the edge to Shields here because he will be pitching at home and had relatively good success against Texas this year going 1-1 in 14 innings and only giving up 4 earned runs.  Wilson actually won in his only start against Tampa thanks to great run support, going 5 innings and giving up 3 earned runs.

Game 3: Matt Garza (TB) vs. Colby Lewis (TEX).  Yet again, I feel like Garza has what it takes to win this battle as he went 2-0 against Texas this season including a shutout in 7 innings in his last outing.  Lewis did not pitch against the Rays this season.

Game 4: Wade Davis (TB) vs. Tommy Hunter (TEX).  I’ll give the edge to Hunter in the battle of the #4 pitchers.  Hunter had a CG win early in the season against the Rays giving up only 1 ER.

Hitting: There are some All-Star caliber sluggers on both these teams with the Rangers featuring Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Guerrero and the Rays featuring Crawford, Upton, Pena, and Longoria.  The Rangers were 1st in the bigs in batting avg (.276) and 5th in runs (787), whereas the Rays were a lowly 27th in batting avg (.247) yet 3rd in runs (802).  The Rays have what it takes to put up some high numbers but the Rangers seem more consistent.  EDGE: Rangers

Prediction: I think the Rays will be too much for the Rangers in this series.  They have better pitching and they are the Champs of the best league in baseball, the AL East.  It would be interesting if the Rangers can squeak out a win in Tampa in the first two games and then head to Arlington for two more.  RAYS IN 4

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

The World-Series Champs look to defend their 27th championship as they head to Minnesota for the ALDS.  The Yankees have beaten the Twins three times in a row since 2003 in the ALDS, however this is the first time Minnesota gets home field advantage.  It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays a factor in the stadium’s first playoff series in history.

Pitching: Game 1: One of baseball’s most automatic, consistent pitchers C.C. Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) will be dueling against Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).  Liriano has shown signs of dominance in his career and had two decent outtings against the Yankees earlier this season going 0-1 in two starts and giving up 5 runs in 13 innings.  C.C. did not pitch against the Twins this season but has been one of baseball’s best and the Yankees’ ace. EDGE: SABATHIA

Game 2 and 3: The Yankees have not announced who their probables are for Games 2 and 3, but I assume Pettitte will go Game 2 if he is healthy and ready to go and that will leave either Nova or Hughes to pitch Game 3.  The Twins are pitching former Yankee-bust Carl Pavano in Game 2 and former relief pitcher Brian Duensing in Game 3.  With Pettitte’s unbelievable October and postseason track record, I see him having the edge in the game he pitches.  If Duensing goes up against the rookie Nova I would give the edge to Duensing.  Hughes could have a great game if he starts and throws his best.

Game 4: Nick Blackburn (MIN) vs. A.J. Burnett (NYY).  Blackburn is an impressive 2-0 in 2 starts against the Yankees, giving up 5 runs in 14 innings.  Burnett is just a mystery; will he pitch dominant like he did when signed by the Yankees or will he be the league leader in wild pitches and throw countless walks like he has shown this year?  Burnett is 1-0 against the Twins this year in 2 starts, giving up 2 earned runs in 11.2 innings, but I have just not been impressed with his consistency and lack of control.

Hitting: The Bronx Bombers sport another powerful lineup from top-to-bottom this postseason.  When fully healthy, they have the most dangerous lineup in the league with such All-Star caliber as Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Posada.  It will be interesting to see if the clutch A-Rod of last postseason continues and if Teixeira can step up.  Don’t count out the Twins though as they were 2nd in batting avg (.274) and 6th in runs (772) this season with such sluggers as Mauer, Cuddyer, Thome, and Young.  The Twins can definitely put up some runs but it is hard to find a better lineup on better than the Yankees — the only question is can they prove it on the field? EDGE: YANKEES

Predicition: This will be a great back-and-forth, nail-bitting series that I think will be decided in 5 games.  Home-field advantage should play a key role and it will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with their starting pitcher situation after Sabathia.  Overall, I think the Yankees will continue their postseason success against the Twins and strive for their 28th World Series title. YANKEES IN 5

Winners:

Texas Rangers: The Texas Rangers might be in bankruptcy, but you wouldn’t know that from all the deals they have made in the past month. First they went out and traded for Cliff Lee, the best pitcher on the market, and a veteran catcher in Benji Molina. Then they added a couple of bats and infield depth in Jorge Cantu and Christian Guzman. The Rangers finished up their trading yesterday by sending one time top prospect Jarrod Saltalmacchia to the Red Sox for a pair of solid low minor leaguers, a player to be named later and cash. While the Rangers gave up one great prospect, a few good ones, and a couple of interesting pieces, they reshaped their roster and are poised for a deep playoff run (and got a lot of cash to offset the returning salary). At the same time they still have one of the deeper minor league systems, and can restock for future playoff runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Considering the fact that the Pirates hadn’t made any real moves before yesterday it is a bit shocking to see them on this list, but Pittsburgh shed a lot of dead weight off their roster and got some useful players in return. In three separate deals the Pirates traded away OF Ryan Church, INF Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco to Arizona, LHP Javier Lopez to the Giants, and RHP Octavio Dotel (and $500K) to the Dodgers. In return they got C Chris Snyder, INF Pedro Ciriaco and cash ($ 3 million) from the D-Backs, RHP Joe Martinez and OF John Bowker (AAA) from the Giants and RHP James McDonald and OF Andrew Lambo (AA). While the guys the Pirates got in return won’t set the world on fire or likely bring a pennant to Pittsburgh, they have some upside Snyder is a bit pricey for next year, but that $3 million helps, and Ciriaco, Martinez and Bowker are basically younger cheaper versions of Church, Crosby and Carrasco. McDonald and Lambo were both one time top prospects in the Dodgers system, and while their status is tarnished some they are a nice haul for Octavio Dotel and $500K. Snyder gives Pittsburgh at worst a solid platoon catcher and could end up being a solid starter. Lambo especially has the tools to develop into a good starting outfielder and at just 21 can still reboot his career. That is not a bad return for Crosby and Lopez who were free agents and Church who they were going to non-tender. Dotel had an option for next year but he was redundant and pricey in the Pirates pen. And while Carrasco has two more Arb. years remaining he is 33 years old and will cost over $1.5 million next year. When it is all said and done, the Pirates did well to add some younger talent, without really increasing payroll for next year.

Dan Haren went from practically untouchable, to likely to be traded in about a week. Now, I think a deal will get done by the time Monday rolls around. While initial reports had the Yankees as the front runners, those have since turned out to be a bit premature. The Twins, Tigers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies are all highly interested in the right-hander, despite the fact that he has been struggling of late. The Yankees will probably remain front runners though since they have the easiest path to trade for Haren.

The Twins and Tigers are both on his no-trade list (as are the Rays if they get interested). Now that is not to say Haren won’t be dealt to those teams, just that the D-Backs will need to get his approval to complete a deal. Which is unfortunate for Arizona, since both teams can probably put together better deals than the Yankees. The Dodgers are problematic since they are in the division and would want the Diamondbacks to eat a chunk of change. While that would increase Arizona’s prospect package, it would be hard to swallow to face the Dodgers and you are paying the salary of the pitcher that is beating you. The Cardinals also would have a hard time fitting Haren in their budget, and they lack the farm system to deal for a pitcher like Haren. That leaves the Yankees as the team without any strings attached as they try to acquire Haren.

Haren won’t come cheap, as initial reports had the D-backs asking the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain, pitching prospect Ivan Nova and two other prospects. While the other two players were unknown, my guess is the Diamondbacks asked for two good prospects (possibly Zach McAllister and David Adams, the players rumored in the Cliff Lee deal). While the Yankees turned it down and in turn asked for a deal involving all prospects, my guess is Joba will need to be involved for a deal to take place. Chamberlain’s value has fallen well below the untouchable range, and New York should consider any deal that doesn’t include them giving up Jesus Montero. While I understand the Yankees are hesitant to give up on Chamberlain when is value is at it’s lowest, he is also no longer a rookie. His free agency clock is ticking and if you can get a player like Haren for him, who is signed for multiple years it isn’t a bad deal. Haren would also mean the Yankees would be out of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes this offseason (one would think), which would save the Yankees quite a bit of money over the next couple of years.

I still wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers or even the Twins get heavily involved even if Haren would have to approve the deal. Given the state of both franchise’s as team’s built to contend over the next few years, I don’t see why Haren wouldn’t agree to a deal to those cities. Another dark horse team that could get involved is the Rangers, they already traded for Cliff Lee, but he is an impending free agent, and the Rangers could use an ace going forward. While their farm system is a little weaker they have the young frontline pitching the Diamondbacks desire. It might not be as much major league ready pitching, but they have the most high upside arms in the minors. Fitting his contract in their budget might be an issue, but he makes a ton of sense from a talent standpoint (as well as selling tickets). A Lee-Haren front of the rotation could carry Texas deep into the postseason, and deliver the Rangers their first World Series title.

The Trade: The Mariners trade P Cliff Lee and RP Mark Lowe to the Rangers for 1B Justin Smoak, P Blake Beavan (AA), RP Josh Lueke (AA), 2B Matt Lawson (AA)

Rangers: Texas made a bold move yesterday trading away their top young prospect Justin Smoak along with three AA  prospects for a half a year rental of Cliff Lee and a solid relief arm in Mark Lowe. Smoak is a steep price to pay for the former Cy Young award winning pitcher, even if the Mariners did through in some cash. Smoak is one of the top young hitters in all of baseball, and while he hasn’t produced yet this season, it is only a matter of time. I think Smoak is an All-Star, middle of the order hitting first baseman and will be ready to assume that role as soon as next season. He is the guy that will likely come back and haunt the Rangers the most. In return the Rangers got Cliff Lee the ace and Mark Lowe a guy who is out till at least September. Lee does give Texas the frontline starter they need to advance in the playoffs, but he will be a free agent this fall. And given the Rangers financial situation they have no chance to resign him (even if they did that shouldn’t affect Lee’s trade value). The one plus of Lee is he will be a Type A free agent which will net Texas two premium draft picks when he signs this winter.

Mariners: I like what Seattle did with the Lee deal, especially throwing in the extra money to get a better prospect return. Seattle gave up three prospects at the beginning of the season to acquire Lee in the hopes that he would help propel them on a playoff run. Things haven’t turned out well for the Mariners as a team, but luckily Lee has been pretty dominate. Seattle actually got more in return for Lee with this deal, than what they gave up 8 months ago. Smoak is the prize, and was ranked as one of the top prospects in all of baseball before the season. Him alone is more value than the 3 prospects they gave up to acquire Lee. On top of Smoak the Mariners received three other Double-A prospects. The two best are the pitchers Beavan and Lueke. Beavan is a former 1st round pick of the Rangers and while he no longer profiles as a front of the rotation pitcher, he has been very successful at Double-A and is still just 21 years old. His ceiling might be that of a number 3 starter, but he should definitely make an MLB rotation within the next two years. Lueke is a power arm out of the bullpen and could end up a closer one day. His stock would be higher, but he was arrested for rape last year, while he ended up pleading to a much lesser offense and was released with time served, his off the field problems may keep him from ever reaching is on the field potential. The final player the Rangers gave up was 2B Matt Lawson. Lawson isn’t a top prospect and profiles as more of a utility guy in the majors, but is a hard working ball player that could be a cheap bench player for Seattle. The Mariners made the right move acquiring prospects instead of just sitting on their hands and waiting for draft picks. Draft picks are nice but they are usually 4+ years away, Smoak is ready now and Beavan and Lueke should be ready within 2 years. In addition you will have to sign the draft picks (not always and easy task) and pay them at least a combined $3 million.

Winner: I really think the Mariners are the winner in this deal, they got a potential All-Star first baseman for the next 5 years, as well as a couple other decent prospects for 3 months of Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe who has 2 more years of Arb. (but can never stay healthy). The Rangers might be a little better in the playoffs, but I don’t think they are World Series favorites. If they were going to give up Smoak they should have received a pitcher under control for a couple of years. I think this deal will end up a big win for Seattle and a big disappointment for Texas.

Peter Gammons of ESPN had an interesting take today when he suggested expanding the number of teams that make the playoffs in baseball. His idea is one that hopefully gains some traction, because it is long overdue. Gammons suggests that they have a second Wild Card team and there is a three game “play-in” series in each league. I think it is highly intriguing, but say why stop there, and why limit it to a three game series?

The fact that only four teams in each league make the postseason is ridiculous (while we are at it can we expand by two teams so both leagues are even, and go to 4 divisions like the NFL). The NBA and NHL both have 30 teams like baseball and they have 16 teams make the playoffs, they also have ‘best of series’ showing its possible for baseball to expand as well. Now 8 teams per league would be too much, but going to an NFL format, where six teams (per league) make it and the top two division leaders get a bye in round one, makes a lot of sense. I would like to see the battle for three Wild Card spots (two if they did move to four 4-team divisions per league, but I shouldn’t get too greedy) opposed to what we have this year, when the playoffs are predetermined with 10 days to go (with the exception of the AL Central).

When you think about it an MLB season is twice as long as the NHL’s or NBA’s (in games played), and 10 times as long as the NFL, yet 22 teams don’t have a chance to win the World Series. I think we should expand the number of teams, not just to benefit the fans interest in the waning months of the season, or to help small market teams compete, but to add another incentive for teams to compete all they way to the end. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers might have acquired talent at the trade deadline this year, if their playoff chances were that much better. Its not just small to mid-market teams that would change their strategy, look at the New York Mets, their season went off the tracks early with a number of big injuries. By the time the trade deadline rolled around the Phillies were entrenched in first, which left the Mets competing with about 7 other teams for the NL’s one Wild Card spot. They decided, and rightly so, that with little chance of making the playoffs they would essentially ’punt’ on the rest of the season, and not give up any prospects in trades. Now if their post season chances were higher, they might have made some moves and been in the chase. The one detractor that most people say is that by extending the post season, baseball will go on until mid-November. I don’t think that has to be true, and with a few simple changes the problem can be solved. First I think you do what Gammons suggested and start the season half a week earlier. Next you eliminate at least two of the off days that teams get in April. Then you eliminate some of the off days that are already built into the playoff schedule. Right now there is only one ‘travel’ day built into the World Series, yet there are 3-4 built into the Divisional and Championship Series. Eliminate those and you have plenty of time for an extra round of playoffs. Which among other reasons to sell owners on expanding, will add millions of dollars in national television and radio money, to all baseball teams, not just the 12 in the playoffs.