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MLB 2011 Preview/Predictions

March 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Kyle Howard

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

Congratulations San Francisco Giants

November 2, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Not only did the Giants win their first World Series title for the city of San Francisco, but they did so in style. No one gave the Giants credit during the season, and yet here they are celebrating and planning their parade.

When you look at the Giants it is easy to see why they were overlooked as a potential World Series Champion, and that reason is their offense, or lack of one. In the 4 big team categories; runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, the Giants never finished higher than 13th in the league. And taking one look at their lineup you can see why. One of their top free agent signings, Mark DeRosa posted a .537 OPS in the first month and a half before being injured and missing the rest of the year. And their biggest free agent bat in recent memory, Aaron Rowand, has become a HUGE hole in the lineup and is now just used as a ‘situational’ player (he only gets that role because he makes $13 million a year). Even one of their promising young players Pablo Sandoval had a huge regression this year.

As for what went right for the Giants offense, two names really stand out above all others, Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff. Huff along with DeRosa were this team’s major free agent signings this season. And while DeRosa got injured and disappointed, Huff went on to have one of the best seasons of his career. Huff who had primarily been DH’ing in recent years, also had a strong bounce back year defensively as well. And not just as a first basemen, but as an outfielder as well. Huff was immensely valuable, and an absolute steal of a free agent signing (unfortunately it was only a 1-year deal so they will need to open their checkbook up if they want to keep him). Posey on the other hand was one of the top young players in baseball, but it appeared as though the Giants refused to acknowledge him. Even going so far to resign and start Bengie Molina this season. Luckily they came to their senses and traded Molina (to the Rangers ironically) to clear the way for Posey. Posey answered in a huge way, and appears to be one of the best players in baseball going forward. The Giants also benefited by some shrewd (and thrifty) mid-season acquisitions. San Francisco brought in Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Mike Fontenot and Cody Ross during this season without giving up any major talent or a ton of money. While it was a mixed result, with Burrell being by far the best of those additions (until Ross killed Phillies pitching in the postseason), they all helped the Giants reach the point of winning the series.

Now while their hitting was always their weak point, San Francisco fared a bit better in the pitching department. The Giants finished first in team ERA, 3rd in quality starts, 4th in WHIP and 1st in batting average against. They had a pitching rotation that featured 4 solid-great starters ranging from Barry Zito (he may be overpriced, but he pitched decently this year) to Tim Lincecum (not as dominate as the past two years, but still an ace). In between the Giants got great seasons from Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain. Their rotation was further strengthened with the addition of 21 year-old Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner followed up on his strong regular season, with a very good postseason, and is a big part as to the Giants success this year. When San Francisco did need to rely on their bullpen, they new they had a very quality unit to fall back on. Closer Brian Wilson dominated this year, and the patchwork unit in front of him turned out to be one of the leagues best.

There is no doubt that the Giants proved the old adage that pitching wins championships, but you have to give the Giants credit for what they did on offense. They overcame the collapse or injuries of a number of key players, and found a way to get enough offense to win the N.L. West on the last day of the season. This is a great win for the organization and the city of San Francisco, who have been waiting for this day for quite a while (since ’58). Congratulations on a great season and postseason San Francisco, and for overcoming adversity to win the title!

Morning Links

October 29, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Giants Take A 2-0 Lead In The Series:  Wow… I thought this would be a close series, both in the box score and going down to a 6th or 7th game, but so far it has been anything but. The Giants have taken advantage of their home field, winning both of the first two games. Not only did the Giants win the games, but they are simply blowing out the Rangers. The Giants have a 20-7 run advantage in two games, and have had no issues against Cliff Lee, and the Rangers bullpen. The Giants did only manage 2 runs against C.J. Wilson last night, before he left with a blister, but that is two more runs than what the Rangers put up against Matt Cain. Cain pitched brilliantly last night, absolutely shutting down the Rangers mighty offense. Texas is supposed to have one of the best lineups in baseball, but they went quietly into the night yesterday. This series is far from over yet, but the Rangers need to turn it around if they want a chance. They should fair better at home, where they can have their DH back, but the Giants have the momentum now.

Wizards Hit A ‘Wall’: It was an ugly game on all counts (unless you are a Magic fan), as the Wizards and their rookie John Wall, got embarrassed in their 2010-2011 season debut. The Magic beat Washington by 29 points, and showed Washington that they are still a bit aways from playing with the big boys in the East. Now the Wizards are a young team so you expect growing pains, but OUCH did that hurt. Their young forwards and centers, did nothing as Al Thornton, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Yi Jianlian, Hilton Armstrong, and rookies Trevor Booker and Hamady Ndiaye combined for just 35 points (or one point less than what Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis combined for). With no inside help, it fell on Wall and the rest of the guards to keep the game close. While the Wizards got solid performances from Wall, Kirk Hinrich and backup Cartier Martin, they couldn’t match up with the Magic’s talent or defense.

It’s a long season so I wouldn’t write off Wall or the Wizards just yet, but I’m not sure if Washington has the inside game to go along with their perimeter play. Washington will need a couple of their big men to step up this season if they hope to win more than 25-30 games. Not only do they need to step up from an offensive stand point, but they need to play better defense as well. The Wizards were basically a non-factor in the paint last night, and that needs to change if they want to compete (not contend, but compete). Washington was without Gilbert Arenas last night, so that could be part of the blame, but at the same time Arenas has a history of injuries so you had to know you weren’t going to get 82 games out of him. Also, lets be honest if the Wizards have their way Arenas will be traded by the time this season is out. Arenas or no Arenas, this team needs to step up to give Wall support, as he can’t be shooting the ball as much as he did last night. Wall had 10 more shots than the next highest shooter, and that simply can’t happen if the Wizards want to win.

Morning Links

October 28, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Rangers Fall As Lee Looks Human: Last night was supposed to be a pitching duel to start the World Series, but ended up turning into a slug fest, as they combined for 18 runs on 25 hits. Both Cliff Lee and Tim Lincecum got roughed up a bit, giving up at least 4 runs, but Lee got the worst of it. He gave up 6 earned runs (7 total) in 4 2/3 innings. Lee came into last night’s game with an ERA under 1.00 for this postseason, but saw that balloon up fairly quickly. The Rangers had an early 2-0 lead, but were unable to capitalize, and were in an 8-2 hole after 5 innings. Texas, who was favored to win this series now will need to steal the next game in San Francisco, to tie it up as it heads back to Texas.

Heat Redeem Their Opening Night Loss: Miami evened their record to 1-1, but it wasn’t the dominate performance we’d expect from the ‘Eastern Conference All-Star’ team. Wade led the way with 30 points, but neither James or Bosh finished 2nd on the team in scoring on the night. Instead that honor went to James Jones, as he adding 20 points, with lights out shooting (6-9) from behind the arc. James and Bosh finished with a respectable 31 combined points, and did some other good things, but this team didn’t look built to contend for anything. It might be early, but they were also playing against the 76ers a team they have to be able to put away early. Instead Philly was in the game until the late 4th quarter, and nearly set the Big Three home without a win. Miami held on to win, but it wasn’t pretty. They need to find their rhythm fast, if they are to compete with the other big boys in the league.

LeBron Who?: James couldn’t overcome the Boston Celtics despite having Dewayne Wade, Chris Bosh and a host of other stars by his side on opening night. His former team had no issue knocking off the Celtics in game two despite having zero star power. Cleveland lost James, Big Z, Shaq and a host of other players this offseason, with their biggest acquisition being PG Ramon Sessions. On top of that, the lone remaining star player Antwan Jamison, scored just 4 points off the bench. Youngster J.J. Hickson led the way with 21, as the Cavs never gave up and knocked off Shaq and the Celtics, just one night after they beat James and his ‘Dream Team’. In the end I think the Celtics put everything into beating James and company that they took Cleveland too lightly. The Cavs had a lot of fire to prove their veterans wrong for leaving, but in reality just can’t compete with the top teams in the East. For one night though it didn’t matter, as Cleveland showed that their young players can play and they will still try to be a factor in the East.

Morning Roundup:

October 12, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Jets Hold off Favre and the Vikings: The Jets are continuing to show themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL as they knocked off the reinforced Vikings last night 29-20. In many ways it was a classic Jets defensive struggle in the pouring rain as their offense scored just one touchdown. The Jets forced 3 turnovers, including a pick six at the end of the game to seal the victory. The Jets relied on the leg of Nick Folk, who was perfect in the inclement weather conditions, going 5 for 5. It was another big win for New York as they are now 4-1, and look to be in control of that division. The Vikings fall to 1-3, and have to begin questioning what is wrong in Minnesota. Yes it was the Jets defense, and yes Randy Moss isn’t fully worked into the lineup, but they still need to find a way to win. On the positive side they did play a much better 2nd half than their first half. It will be a long week in Minnesota as they desperately need to find a way to be consistent and play a full 4 quarters of football.

Patriots Trade a 4th round pick for Deion Branch: Somehow Randy Moss is only worth a 3rd round pick (with the Patriots giving up an additional 7th in 2012) to Deion Branch being worth a 4th round pick? Branch at one time might have been a top notch receiver who helped the Patriots win Super Bowls, but he has resembled anything close to that of late. He lacks the speed and quickness he used to have, and while he can still help some he isn’t worth the nearly $6 million he will be due to make next year (or the $3 million plus he will make the rest of this year). Yes the Patriots had an extra 4th rounder from the Broncos in the Laurence Maroney trade (they gave up their 6th rounder as well) and multiple additional picks from other trades. But I think New England overpaid here (by a lot). Given how much money he was owed I’m surprised the Patriots had to give up more than a 6th or 7th rounder. While he has some experience with Brady, it has been 4 and a half years since they’ve been together. I think Brady and New England overvalued that history. There were easily other cheaper, younger receivers available for less of a draft pick compensation price. There is way too much of a drop off in value from Moss to Branch for these deals to be motivated by football decisions. New England got their hand caught in the cookie jar by not having enough quality receivers and Tom Brady basically lobbying for Branch.

Giants Knock off Atlanta, Bring an End to Cox’s career: Bobby Cox is one of the all-time great managers in baseball, as he has led Atlanta to multiple playoff appearances and has kept them a contender for the last two decades. Now though his career ends on a bittersweet note at home, as his Braves fall to the Giants 3-2. The Braves played well in the series, but in the end the Giants pitching was just too much for them. San Francisco in an amazing show of sportsmanship, stopped their celebration to honor Bobby Cox last night. While it wasn’t the final tribute Cox or the Braves were hoping for, it was nice that his final game was at home and the Giants showed him the respect he deserved.

NL Playoff Preview Part II

October 6, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

A Guest Blog By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Andrew Chubb

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

In the final year of legendary skipper Bobby Cox, the Atlanta Braves surprised a lot of people by maintaining their lead in the National League East over the 3-time defending NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies for a majority of the regular season. With a solid starting rotation led by 3-time All-Star, Ace-of-the-staff Tim Hudson and an excellent bullpen, the Braves relied on timely hitting and stellar defense from All-Star catcher Brian McCann, rookie phenom Jason Heyward, as well as first time All-Stars Omar Infante and Martin Prado. However the Braves recent stumbles in August and September allowed for the Phils to gain ground in the East and eventually overtake the lead in the division. The Braves playoff hopes hinged on the final day of the regular season when they secured a Wild-card birth with a win and a San Diego Padres’ loss.

The San Francisco Giants, led by manager Bruce Bochy, played catchup with the San Diego Padres for most of the regular season. However, after the Padres stumbled with a 10-game losing streak in August and September, the Giants overtook the lead in the National League West by winning one out of three games in their final series against the Padres at the conclusion of the regular season. When looking at their starting pitching staff, it’s no surprise as to what the Giants owe their post season berth to. Last years Cy Young Award Winner Tim Lincecum, stalwart right-hander Matt Cain, and left-hander Jonathan Sanchez all had excellent numbers through out the 2010 season. The Giants’ starting pitching staff compiled an absurd 1.78 ERA in the month of September alone. They also enjoyed a sensational year from saves leader and closer, Brian Wilson. While the offense struggled throughout most of the year, they were able to get solid contributions down the stretch from rookie catcher Buster Posey and resurgent veterans Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff.

STARTING PITCHING

This will be an interesting matchup. The Giants starters had the second best ERA in the National League at 3.54 with the Braves being close behind at 3.80. While it could be said that Tim Lincecum had somewhat of a down year (3.43 ERA), he still won 16 games and had the most strikeouts in the National League. Matt Cain had a year much like Cole Hamels, in that his success did not translate to the win column. He went 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA, but still has the repertoire to be a shutdown ace. Jonathan Sanchez had a good second half of the regular season, and is capable of frustrating hitters with breaking balls and can overpower with his fastball when his command is there. The Braves will have to rely on sinker balling veteran Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and the young right-hander Tommy Hanson. Lowe is the veteran with the most postseason experience, and if he can place his sinker with precision, it will be tough for the Giants hitters to get the ball out of the infield. The revitilized Hudson enjoyed a 17-9 season with an ERA of 2.83 and, like Lowe, will rely on a sinking fastball to get ground ball outs. The postseason wildcard of the staff has to be Hanson. At only 24 year old, he was inconsistent at times during the regular season and prone to mental lapses. If he can overcome some control issues and get hitters deep in the count so he can use his devestating 12-6 curveball, Hanson will be able to put his team in a position to win.

Edge: Giants

BULLPEN

While the Giants have an excellent closer in Brian Wilson, their success in the regular season was in large part due to the starters being able to pitch deep into games. If they are to advance they will need good performances from setup men Jeremy Affeldt (4.14 ERA) and Guillermo Mota (4.33 ERA). The Atlanta Braves have two excellent setup men in Peter Moylan (2.97 ERA) and Johnny Venters (1.95 ERA), and have enjoyed a comeback season by closer Billy Wagner (7-2 1.43 ERA).

Edge: Braves

LINEUP

Both offenses were somewhat mediocre during the 2010 regular season, with the Giants having the edge in power. They will continue to rely on Aubrey Huff’s surprising numbers (.290 BA, 26 HR, 86 RBI) and Buster Posey’s excellent rookie production (.305 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI) to spark their offense. While third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s offensive production dipped this year, the Giants enjoyed a stellar year from infielder Juan Uribe (24 HR, 86 RBI). Outfielder Andres Torres has great speed and a good bat, which could also contribute to San Francisco’s success if he can get on base and steal some bases. Atlanta will try and counter with the consistent and heady catcher Brian McCann, and the rookie phenom outfielder Jason Heyward. While McCann does not have the power of an elite hitting catcher, he more than makes up with it with a great eye and a fundamental swing. When healthy, Heyward has been Atlanta’s lightning in a bottle. Heyward has great speed on the basepaths and in the outfield, can hit to all fields for power and average, and is a surprisinly mature hitter considering he is only 21 years old. Adding Derrek Lee late in the season to replace injured Troy Glaus was a good move considering his veteran leadership, character, and postseason experience.

Edge: Giants

SERIES OUTLOOK

When you’re looking at Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez in a 5 game series, you have to be confident if you’re the Giants. The losses of Chipper Jones and Martin Prado really hurt because it has become apparent that Brooks Conrad cannot be an everyday player. His defensive lapses have cost the Braves at a position that has been manned since 1993 by an almost certain first ballad Hall of Famer, Chipper Jones. With Atlanta’s road record being near the bottom of the league, the Braves will face an uphill battle to get the Conference Series. However, this series will be close if Atlanta’s starting pitching can match San Francisco’s, as both offenses are somewhat comparable to each other. Ultimately, I believe the Giants starting pitching and momentum going into the postseason will be too much for the Braves to handle and despite the Braves desire to send the Bobby Cox out on top, the Giants will win the Divisional Series in 5 games.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Game 1: Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) vs. Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

Game 2: Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA) vs. Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

Game 3: Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA

Game 4: TBD (If necessary) at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA

Game 5: TBD (If necessary) at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA

Random Sports Thoughts:

November 20, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Vikings Lockup Childress:

Brad Childress signs an extension with the Vikings. My question is this…how much of this contract is owed to Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and Jared Allen? I mean Childress is a nice coach, but I have a hard time believing he’s elite. I think he’s done well in evaluating free agent/trade talent, but overall his draft track record is spotty (though Peterson and Percy Harvin do look nice). I mean his player evaluation does have to be questioned, since he legitimately believed that Tavaris Jackson is a NFL starting quarterback. Overall though the Vikings had to extend Childress, his team is 8-1 this season and is poised for a deep playoff run.

Dolphins Go For It On 4th and 3:

No this doesn’t vindicate Bill Belichick for his bonehead call last Sunday night! A few major differences between these situations, the Dolphins were on the Carolina 28, NOT THEIR OWN 28 yard line. The Dolphins also left only 39 seconds on the clock for the Panthers with no timeouts remaining, not two minutes and one timeout like the Patriots gave the Colts. And while the Dolphins could have tried a long 45 yard field goal to seal the game, if they had missed the kick they would have given Carolina the ball on the 35. I think Tony Sparano made the right call there, even though the Panthers did eventually get the ball in ‘hail mary’ range.

Lincecum Wins 2nd Cy Young Award:

Congrats to Tim Lincecum, unfortunate news for the San Francisco Giants since they will now have to sell the Golden Gate Bridge to afford to retain him. Lincecum enters this offseason as a Super-Two player, meaning that since he has played over two and a half years in the majors he is now eligible for arbitration, his first of four arbitration years. Usually when a player hits arbitration their salary jumps from league minimum ($400-450K) to somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5-$4.0 million for solid players. Good players might be in the $5 million range. Now exceptional players have been known to get larger amounts, ex. Ryan Howard won his Super-two case for $10 million (and that was two years ago). Lincecum now has won the Cy Young Award in each of his two full seasons, compiling a career record of 40-17 with a 2.90 ERA, and that’s with a shaky defense and a pretty bad offense behind him (offense doesn’t help the ERA, but if he was pitching for the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox he’d have 20+ wins a year). Looking deeper into the numbers, Lincecum has lead the league in strikeouts, and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched each of the last two seasons. He led the league in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in 2008, and was just barely beaten out by Zack Greinke this season. Lincecum is flat out dominate and now the Giants will have to open up their check book to keep him in town long term. What will it cost? Well the Phillies are going to end up paying Howard $64 million over his 4 arb. years (they signed a guaranteed contract last season), so I think that is at least the starting point. I say its going to cost at least $70 million to lock up Lincecum over the same time frame. As good as Howard is, the Giants would never trade Lincecum straight up for him. He’s a great power hitter, with just good on base skills at a prime power position. Howard is only average defensively, at the least important defensive position on the diamond. Lincecum by comparison is an elite pitcher who has dominated the league every fifth day for over two years now. If the Giants want to go to arbitration each year (and they will lose) they will probably pay out nearly $80 million plus if Lincecum doesn’t get injured, they have to sign an extension in my eyes. That $70 million sounds like a huge figure (and it is), but it ends up being a $17.5 million average, aka Barry Zito money (boy does that hurt).