A Guest Blog By Corey M. Schwartz

Pitching is often touted as the essential ingredient for winning championships while offense is often referred to as the entity that fills the seats. You would think that with a lineup consisting of players by the names of Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino would be the guaranteed magnet that continues to draw consecutive sellouts to Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia this summer. However, in 2011, we may hear about another foursome that overtakes that throne.

Historically, if you ask any merchandise director of a professional baseball team what position sells consistently the most, I guarantee their response will be an offensive player. However, for the first time in franchise history the pitching staff of the Philadelphia Phillies might legitimately outsell the rest of the team as the city of brotherly love shows they also <3 their pitchers.

I could honestly spend the next five years discussing how R2C2 (commonly known as Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, and Lee) may in fact be the best starting four pitchers any rotation, yet alone the Phillies, has ever embraced in baseball. However, rather than spending several paragraphs gushing like a school girl over how much talent the Phillies starting rotation presents this year. Instead, I will just share some statistics that will concisely express the awesomeness that is about to embark in the city of Philadelphia. Enjoy:

Wins – Loss ERA CG K
481-275            3.47  105   5,362

Low and behold, the above statistics are the combine career stats for Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. Without jinxing the Phillies pitching staff, I think the biggest concern this year for the Phantastic Phour is not their impending success, but who will come out at the end of the season as the statistical ace of the staff. Keep an eye on this starting rotation as it seems for this deck of arms, aces will be wild.

Loudly heard, the biggest concern for the Phillies pitching staff going into the 2011 baseball season is the current state of their bullpen. After spending close to 100 million dollars on their fierce starting rotation over the last two years, the Phillies have unfortunately neglected the one area on their team that needed the most attention – middle relief.

Inadvertently, the Phillies pitching staff is exceptionally strong at the front (Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Blanton) and at the rear (Contreras, Madson, Lidge), but like an Oreo, they currently have a very weak middle. Even more troublesome the most consistent middle reliever of the Phils pitching staff over the last several years – Chad Durbin – has still not re-signed with the club in 2011. As it looks right now, the bullpen lines-up like this on Opening Day 2011:

Middle Relief:
Danys Baez, David Herndon, and Kyle Kendrick

Left-Handed Specialist:
JC Romero, Antonio Bastardo

Setup:
Ryan Madson, Jose Contreras

Closer:
Brad Lidge

Excitingly for the Phillies this year, Madson came off an impressive year in the setup roll in 2010, Jose Contreras was very consistent last season, and for the first time in three years Brad Lidge reported to spring training this year healthy and probably in the best shape of his career. On the flip side of that coin, JC Romero walked more people than he struck out in 2010, Antonio Bastardo has very little major league experience and Baez, Herndon, and Kendrick are inconsistent at best.

So, as a die-hard Phillies fan, we can only hope that the work ethic, competitiveness, and energy surrounding the Phillies starting rotation will rub off on the rest of the pitchers this spring. Yes, pitching can and will win championships, but only if their whole is stronger than the parts that makes up its’ composition. With young pitchers waiting in the wings like Vance Worley, Michael Zagurski, Brian Schlitter, and Justin De Fratus, I expect no less than an arms race this spring for the middle relief spots on the opening day 25-man roster. Let the games begin…

Corey, an avid Phillies fan, will be analyzing the Phillies chances at another ring through a 3-part series looking at their offense, pitching, and the x-factor. Corey is also the Founder and CEO of RemixYourHealth, a grassroots and social media based health promotion initiative. Visit RemixYourHealth.com for more information.

A Fanspeak Guest Blog By Corey M. Schwartz

There is a certain glow around the Phillies spring training camp this year, and it’s more than just Jimmy Rollins 10K diamond earrings or Ryan Howard’s White Escalade with 26” Chrome Asantis Rims. In fact, the glow surfaces primarily from four individuals who do everything they can to hide from the limelight, and honestly, show less emotion come game time than a British Royal Guard. However, is that really where we should be focusing our attention regarding the Phillies?

Philadelphia is a city poised for greatness and triumphed battles (see Rocky I-VI, Liberty Bell, Pat’s vs. Geno’s, the film Philadelphia, Invincible, Tasty Cakes, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Transformers, etc.). Embarking on the 2011 baseball season, the Philadelphia Phillies will head to the table with four aces, $161 million payroll, and a potential wild card in Domonic Brown. Does this guarantee to be a winning hand? Honestly, I am not convinced.

What MLB coach wouldn’t want to wake up in the morning and hand the baseball over to their 4th starter, an individual that will either have a Cy Young, NLCS MVP, WS MVP, or comeback player of the year award under their belt? Don’t get me wrong; the Phillies starting rotation will win this year – a lot of games too. In fact, I predict that in 2011 their starting rotation will have at least two, 20 game winners. The last time Philadelphia witnessed that occurring was almost 100 years ago in 1916 when Grover Alexander (32) and Eppa Rixey (22) accomplished the feat.

Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hammels, and Cliff Lee – now referred to as R2C2 by the media world – would make any coach giddy about the upcoming baseball season. In fact, the great prophet Jimmy Rollins just announced his prediction for the 2011 baseball season – 100+ wins and possibly the most wins in baseball history. It’s true, offense attracts the fans, but pitching will always win championships. But the bigger question here is, can these four high-profile pitchers be enough to overcome some glaring holes in the Phillies lineup and an overall aging team (average age = 30+)?

With the departure of the power hitting right-handed bat of Jayson Werth to the Nationals during the off-season, the first major question I must present is “Who’s in right?” At a glance, the obvious solution here would be the Phillies Top 25 MLB prospect Domonic Brown. Brown’s ability to hit for average and power and his often-touted speed and arm make him a potential 5-tool super-star in the making. Unfortunately there are two problems’ with this solution: 1.) Did anyone else watch Brown’s swing disappear like a Harry Houdini act last fall? And 2.) He’s another left-handed bat.

Nevertheless, it seems Domonic will be Philadelphia’s go to guy. The Phillies have stated emphatically over the last two weeks that he’s been working extremely hard this winter to correct some major flaws in his swing that showed face late last season. Essentially, it’s Domonic’s position to lose this spring. Trust me, everyone especially Charlie and Domonic hope that this means the return of his double threat attack of power and hitting for average that he showcased in the minors. The reality of it all, however, is even if his swing returns; can he handle the rigors of a full major league baseball season?

Mechanically, Brown may be back to the feared hitter he was in the Phillies farm system. Unfortunately for him, and the Phillies, is the fact that he is another left-handed bat in an already extremely heavy left-handed lineup. Does being left-handed mean being left-out come opening day? I guess we will just have to wait and see how well downtown Brown performs this spring.

As it sits right now, the projected lineup for the Phillies come April 1st, 2011 will look something like this:

SS Jimmy Rollins S
3B Placido Polanco R
2B Chase Utley L
1B Ryan Howard L
LF Raul Ibanez L
CF Shane Victorino S
RF Domonic Brown L
C Carlos Ruiz R

With not one right-handed power bat, yet alone right-handed bat period in the middle of that lineup, any team with a left-handed pitcher who can break 80 on the radar gun and throw something that resembles a breaking or off-speed pitch can potentially handle the meat of the Phillies lineup with relative ease. This-is-not-good!

How can the Phillies ratify this issue? There options as of right now are slim to none with bringing in either Ben Francisco or John Mayberry off of the bench. At best, Ben (4yr exp., .263, 39, 140) has been very streaky with his productivity in a Phillies uniform but has shown promise when given the opportunity to play regularly. John (2yr exp., .232, 6, 14), although showing promise as a potential power hitting outfielder, has very littler major league experience and has seemed to adopt Ryan Howard’s philosophy on off-speed pitching – swing often, swing hard, swing and a miss.

The haunting question becomes, are the Phillies setting themselves up for yet another epic fail offensively come playoff time (see: 2010 NLCS vs. Giants)?

In my opinion, one of two things needs to happen in 2011 in order for the Phillies to return to the World Series. Either Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez invest their combined $30+ millions dollar salaries this year in an off-speed pitch hitting coach, or the Phillies need to hope and pray that Domonic Brown will be productive against both left and right –handed pitching in his first full year of major league service. Oh yeah, and if the Phillies can find Ponce De León’s “Fountain of Youth” while in Florida this spring, that may not necessarily be a bad thing. Viva la Moyer!

I guess what it will really come down to for the Phillies this year is being able to win with the cards that they are dealt, and not necessarily just having the best hand in the deck. Even if the Phillies really do have four aces in their hand.

(Corey, an avid Phillies fan, will be analyzing the Phillies chances at another ring through a 3-part series looking at their offense, pitching, and the x-factor. Corey is also the Founder and CEO of RemixYourHealth, a grassroots and social media based health promotion initiative. Visit RemixYourHealth.com for more information or check out the RemixYourHealth Group on FanSpeak!)

The Deals: The Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt and $11 million from the Astros for LHP J.A. Happ (MLB), OF Anthony Gose (A+) and IF Jonathan Villar (A-)

The Astros acquire 1B Brett Wallace (AAA) from the Blue Jays for OF Anthony Gose (A+)

Phillies: Philadelphia did a great job in this deal, not only acquire Oswalt for a third N.L. Title run, but to get him at the price they did. Happ is a nice back of the rotation starter, who gets by because he is a lefty (and quite a bit of luck). The fact that he headlines this deal is a huge steal for the Phillies. Gose and Villar are nice young prospects but they weren’t going to be in Philly for another 3-4 years. Neither player is going to help the Phillies win these next two seasons, but that is exactly what Oswalt will do. The best part of this deal is the fact that the Astros kicked in $11 million of the $23 million owed to Oswalt, which means the Phillies have another ace at half the price. The fact that the Phillies didn’t have to give up any more or better prospects to get that amount of money shows just how desperate the Astros were to move Oswalt.

Astros: The Astros sold low on Oswalt and only saved half the money that was owed to him so they didn’t really help their bottom line. Happ and two low minors prospects is a weak return for Oswalt, not to mention the $11 million they kicked in. While Astros fans will talk about the $12 million they saved, I don’t think it will amount to that much, because I imagine they will lose some money at the box office. Now I fully believe they should have traded Oswalt and use that money in other areas, but they will lose fans and money by making this move. The Astros should have acquired 1-2 additionals prospects or one other top prospect to even begin to get to even value for what they gave up. The only positive is they were able to flip Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace. Wallace who has already been traded for Matt Holliday and former Philly prospect Michael Taylor in the past 12 months, is a quality 1B prospect. Wallace for Gose is a great deal for the Astros since it gives them not only the higher rated prospect, but the one closest to the majors. Wallace profiles as a solid defensive 1B, who has good plate discipline and 30 HR power. He should be starting for the Astros no later than the beginning of next season, and gives Houston a quality piece to build around for the future.

Blue Jays: Toronto made a bit of a strange move by making the side deal for Gose. Wallace was a top prospect and should have commanded a similar return or could headline a major trade. Gose could profile as a high quality center fielder, but they paid a high price for him. Wallace is basically major league ready and with Lyle Overbay moving on next season (earlier if they trade him), there is a starting spot for Wallace on the Jays. While they have some other nice 1B prospects, none are as good or ready as Wallace. The Blue Jays did seem to be poised to contend by the start of the 2012 season, but now I would begin to question that timeline.

Winner: The Phillies are the big winner in this deal, not only getting Oswalt but getting money in this deal as well. As for the Astros, they soundly lost the Philly portion of this trade, but helped offset that with a big win in the Toronto side of this deal. The Blue Jays made a strange move here selling low on Wallace, who seemed like a major part of their future.

While yesterday’s proposed trade fell through, Roy Oswalt remains one of the top players on the trade market, and one of the most likely to be moved by the July 31st deadline. That being said there seems to be a great debate as to what his value really is.

Few doubt that Oswalt is a premier pitcher, and no worse than a good (or even great in my book number 2). He might not be the bona fide ace that say Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia when they were traded, but he’s not far off. Oswalt has a career 143-81 record with a 3.22 ERA. While his record is 6-11 this season, much of that has to do with the failure of the Astros offense than any knock on Oswalt. His ERA sits at 3.12 and he is having one of the best season’s of his career. His strikeout rate (8.49 per 9 innings), HR rate (.80 lowest in 3 years), Avg. against (.222), and WHIP (1.07) are all incredibly impressive. His walk rate is up this year (2.40 per 9 innings), but since his K rate is so high and avg. against so low, it hasn’t been a big problem.

Few executives/baseball pundits are questioning Oswalt’s talent, they just aren’t sure if he is worth the contract going forward. This is the part I tend to disagree with them. Oswalt is owed roughly $7 million for the rest of this season, and not a bad figure considering the year he is having. The problem is what he is owed for the rest of his deal. Oswalt is scheduled to earn $16 million in 2011 and has a $16 million team option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout. Meaning that including the $7 million he is owed this season Oswalt will require $25 million for a year and a half of work (though you technically spread out that $2 million over a third year budget). While a few teams have balked at that price, most contenders are willing to pay it. The problem is that Oswalt has a full no-trade clause and wants his 2012 option picked up meaning he will be owed $39 million over the next 2 and a half years. That has left a lot of teams with pause in terms of acquiring the front line starter. For me though I don’t believe that is as big of a deal as people are making it out to be.

That $16 million a year is roughly the average that Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, and John Lackey signed for in free agency, and Oswalt has been a better pitcher than them throughout his career (and is having a better season this year). Oswalt is roughly the same age as them (and a few years younger than Lowe). And to top it all off the team acquiring him doesn’t have to pay it for 4-6 years, which is always the biggest problem with signing a free agent pitcher. Oswalt will probably be worth that money in 2012, but afterwards as he gets to his mid-30′s his production will likely decline, when you sign a free agent you are stuck with that deal. Now this will give teams financial flexibility going forward.

The other benefit with taking on all that money is it will lessen the prospect return. Oswalt won’t cost whomever acquires him what the Phillies paid for Roy Halladay or the Mariners and Diamondbacks paid for Eric Bedard and Dan Haren. His value is closer to Jake Peavy’s in terms of a trade return, and that is something that many teams can afford to give up. If Oswalt can be had for less than a front line prospect (even if it means giving up 3-4 solid guys) it will be worth it. His contract is far better than dipping into the free agent market (which you’d have to give up a draft pick for) and he won’t cost as much as say Dan Haren on the trade market.

The rumors are swirling and the return is murky so far but it appears that the Phillies are on the verge of acquiring Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros. While the return isn’t known yet it is safe to say Dominic Brown is not part of the equation, as the Phillies are likely to move Jayson Werth in an effort to free up money and get prospects in return. This leaves me with a few questions to consider:

1. Did the Phillies make the right move trading Cliff Lee before the season?

2. Should they be moving Werth now, while they are in the middle of a playoff race?

3. Is Oswalt worth the money and prospect return for the Phillies?

4. Will the Phillies have the financial freedom to pursue free agents this offseason?

1. Roy Oswalt: It remains to be seen if the Astros will part with one of their favorite players, but it is probably in the best interest to the team. Houston is in a rebuilding phase, and they have one of the weakest farm systems in the league (particularly in the high minors). Oswalt is also owed $16 million next year and has a $2 million team buyout for 2012 (or $16 team option). Add in the $7 million owed to him this year still, and the Astros have plenty of reasons to look to move their ace. It is a hefty contract, which will take some teams out of the running, but Houston has said they are willing to take on salary to get a better prospect return. As for his value I would peg it in the range as to what the Phillies gave up for Cliff Lee last year, and maybe slightly less. Oswalt has a no trade clause in his contract so it could get a bit dicey, but he is still the best pitcher on the market.

2. Dan Haren: It wasn’t long ago that Haren was supposed to be the major piece acquired by the Diamondbacks to take them to the next level, now it looks like Haren may be on the move again. He still has two years ($12.75 per) left on his deal after this year, and an option year in 2013. Haren at 29 years of age is very affordable at this price and is by no means a salary dump. He is struggling a bit this season, but not horribly so. The real question remains is if the Diamondbacks will put him on the market, and what their asking price will be. Given their struggles, I’m sure they will listen on him. But since they just gave up some very talented prospects, it will probably take quite a bit to acquire Haren.

3. Ted Lilly: Lilly will actually attract more teams, given his cost (free agent after this season, and a Type-A at that) and the fact that he is left handed, but he isn’t nearly the upgrade Oswalt or Haren are. Lilly is still getting it done, and the Cubs look to be sellers this month. His price tag won’t be exorbitant (which also should interest some teams) but he should net the Cubs two solid players.

4. Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins look to move into sell mode over the next month and Nolasco will likely be one of the top players dealt. He is having another good year, and could slot into most rotations as a quality 3. He still has two arbitration years remaining after the season making him very cheap and valuable compared to a number of the other pitchers. The Marlins will want a pretty good return, but will likely move him to get the maximum value.

5. Paul Maholm: The list drops off a bit after Nolasco, but Maholm can still help a contender down the stretch. He is a middle of the rotation lefty, who gives solid innings. He won’t ever be a frontline starter, but can be a solid 4 on a contender. He still has $6.5 (2011 season and a buyout in 2012) remaining after this year, which is pretty affordable. He won’t cost a ton in a return package, which helps increase his value. The Pirates are definitely entering a sell mode and Maholm will be one of their top chips.

It has been a rough year for the Astros as they have fallen to the cellar of the N.L. Central and are tied for the 2nd worst record in baseball. Things are about to get worse for the Astros after the news came out that star pitcher Roy Oswalt wants to be traded.

Oswalt has been a tremendous homegrown talent for Houston over the years. And while his record stands at 2-6 the blame can’t be on Oswalt’s shoulders. His ERA sits at 2.66 and has a 1.07 WHIP to go along with 60 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. Oswalt has once again been his dominate self, but the team around him has crumbled to the point of complete dysfunction. Oswalt has won 139 games for the Astros over the years, but will likely be making his last few starts wearing a Houston uniform.

Oswalt who already said he would be willing to waive his no trade clause, has now sent a message through his agent to Astros G.M. Ed Wade that he would like to be traded. Now if the Astros are smart they will honor that request quickly and quietly (don’t want it to get messy since he does have the no trade clause he can veto trades he doesn’t like), and not try to convince their ace to stay. Now I realize their will be some fan backlash, but this really is the best thing for Houston.

They are a team stocked with high priced veterans and have no chance of contending these next two years (the years in which the Astros have Oswalt under contract, for roughly $29 million), and should cash in on him while they can. The Astros farm system is the definition of being barren, so an Oswalt trade can help jump start (start) their rebuilding process (as well as moving a few other players). They can also use the money they are saving by trading away these big contracts to draft and sign a higher level of amateur talent, which was the blueprint that made them successful in the mid-late 90′s and carried over to this decade. Also the money they save this year and for the future can be invested into younger free agent talent next offseason. Players who will be with the team 4-5 years from now when their rebuilding process is complete.

The most important thing for the Astros is to run and not walk in making this deal. Now that is not to say agree to the first deal to come along, but Houston should be proactive and not wait around for teams to send them proposals. For one thing if they act now, they can sell the acquiring team on the fact that they will get an extra two months of Oswalt (which would amount to at least 10 starts) compared to if they wait until the trade deadline at the end of July. Teams might be willing to pay a higher price for those 10+ extra starts. Not to mention by putting Oswalt on the market now more teams might have an interest in him. Teams like the Cubs and Red Sox are struggling right now, but have high expectations to this season they are likely to try to jump back into contention with a big move. If you wait until the end of July they might be out of the race. Also some surprise teams like Texas and Washington could be in the mix right now, but might not be willing to pull the trigger later in the season. By waiting the Astros run the risk of other frontline pitchers hitting the trade market and being dealt to teams with the biggest need.

Not only does Houston need to act quickly but they need to make sure they don’t attach too high of demands to their star pitcher. Oswalt is a top of the line pitcher, but he isn’t a Cy Young type of guy. He has some injury history (though not too serious) and does have a no trade clause which means he will have somewhat of a say into where he goes. And while his contract isn’t breaking the bank, it is also more expensive than most, and the $16 million he will make next year puts him in the top 10 among pitchers. So Houston shouldn’t expect to get a prospect bonanza for their ace, and need to use what both the Padres and Blue Jays did as an example of what not to do.

Both San Diego and Toronto were in a similar position where their ace pitcher wanted out of their situation, but had some leverage with the no trade clause (and were also in their early 30′s like Oswalt). The Padres decided not to move Jake Peavy before the start of last season, because they wanted a bigger return. By waiting ended up losing all their leverage. One of the teams hot on Peavy’s trail was the Atlanta Braves, but they filled their pitching woes by signing a couple free agents and trading for Javier Vasquez, taking them completely off the market for Peavy. In addition to losing out on one of his primary suitors Peavy experienced some injury issues last year which further depleted his trade value. While they got a couple of solid prospects, they didn’t receive any difference makers in return for their ace.

The Blue Jays made a similar mistake later in the season when they set an exorbitant price tag on Roy Halladay and ended up not moving him until this offseason. By waiting Halladay’s value went down since he would have helped a team with two playoff runs last season, compared to just one as an impending free agent (he did sign an extension after he was traded). The Blue Jays placed too high of demands and were left with nothing last season. While they ended up getting a good return for their ace from the Phillies, I’m sure they could have pried more away last July. Philadelphia ended up trading 4 prospects to the Indians for Cliff Lee (who they sent in a trade to the Mariners to recoup some of the prospects from the Halladay deal). While they weren’t going to send all those prospects from both deals to the Blue Jays for Halladay, my guess is they would have sent at least two of the guys they dealt to the Indians Toronto’s way for that extra playoff run with Halladay. By holding out the Blue Jays got nothing to show for it, in fact they ended up spending an extra $6-8 million on Halladay for the rest of the season, a season where two weeks after the trade deadline the team couldn’t come up with the money to sign a number of their top draft picks. Had Toronto moved Halladay then, gotten the extra prospect or two and used that money to sign their draft picks, their rebuilding process with be much more advanced than it is today.

Houston needs to make an Oswalt (as well as maybe a Berkman) deal happen ASAP. Before any more leverage is lost on their part. The Astros need to get younger and Oswalt’s unhappiness is the first step in doing so. It might get worse before it gets better, but there will be a light at the end of the tunnel if the Astros are smart.