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Worth the Wait: Twins Outlast Tigers and Playoff Predictions

October 7, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

It took 24 combined hits, 14 different pitchers and 12 innings, (not to mention 163 games) but the Minnesota Twins are the 2010 AL Central Division champs. Early on the Tigers took a 3-0 lead, but the Twins battled back to go up 4-3 in the 7th before the Tigers tied it to force extra innings. Minnesota had to outlast a number of Tigers opportunities in the late innings, including scoring the tying run in the 10th to keep the game alive. Now the Twins “won” the right to face the Yankees in the first round in a series that starts tonight.

Yankees vs. Twins:

New York is a huge favorite in the five game series, and that was even before the Twins used some of the best bullpen arms last night. This very well could be a sweep, but I think the Twins will steal one of the games from New York when they return home to Minnesota. The Yankees just have too much pitching and hitting for the Twins. And if the game is ever close in the 8th or 9th inning the Yankees have Mariano Rivera, the best closer ever to play the game. The Twins right now are without their second best offensive weapon (Morneau) and have a makeshift pitching rotation. They just can’t match up with the Yankees to really give them a threat.

Rockies vs. Phillies

No team has been hotter down the stretch this year than the Colorado Rockies, going 74-42 after replacing Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy early in the season. They almost stole the NL West from the Dodgers, and overcame seven other teams fighting for the Wild Card spot down the stretch. Their impressive run though is about to come to an end, as the are prepared to meet the world champs in the first round. The Philadelphia Phillies have a great offense with five players with 20 or more home runs on the year. The Phillies have the deepest starting pitching they’ve had since they went to the World Series in 1993, with a pair of aces at the top in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Lee and Hamels should be the difference in the series, between the two of them they should be able to win three games. The Phillies only weakness is their bullpen, I don’t know if they can rely on them to hold 1-3 run leads night in and night out. The good news for Philly is they can use their extra starting depth to pitch meaningful innings out of the bullpen. The Rockies are a good team, but are already without one of their top pitchers for the series. They have a good lineup 1-8, but don’t have the star power outside Tulowitzki at SS. As long as the Phillies don’t need to rely on their bullpen too much, they should have no problems advancing to the next round. I think Philadelphia wins this series 3-1, although with the way the Rockies have been playing and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them force a game 5.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals:

The Cardinals seem to be a favorite NL World Series pick among baseball people out there, but I don’t think they will make it past LA in the first round. I understand that the Cards have Pujols and Matt Holliday, two of the best hitters in the game, and they have a pair of Cy Young contenders in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Unfortunately, I don’t think they have enough talent elsewhere to win this series. The Dodgers are stacked 1-25 on their roster, they have the deepest, bench, lineup, bullpen and rotation in the National League this year. Combine that with the home field advantage aspect, and I think the Dodgers are the favorites in this series. The big difference is going to be the bullpens in this matchup. The Dodgers might have the best bullpen in the game right now, where as the Cardinals bullpen scares me even more than the Phillies bullpen. They have been pitching over their heads this year, and I don’t know if they will be able to shut the door on the Dodgers offense like they were able to do against the likes of the Pirates and Reds during the season. In the end I think the Dodgers bench and bullpen win the day (and series) for LA 3-2.

Baseball Roundup:

October 1, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

World Champs Clinch the East:  The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the N.L. East for the third year in a row last night with the Braves losing to the Marlins 5-4 (not to mention the Phils trouncing the Astros 10-3). The win takes some pressure off the Phillies and allows them to rest up some as they wait to see who their opponent will be in the first round (likely the Rockies). While it wasn’t his best outing last night, how much did the signing of Pedro Martinez pay off for Philadelphia? He’s 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in nine starts. Not only have his numbers been impressive, but the team is 8-1 in his starts, helping the Phils be where they are right now. If their bullpen can come together and start pitching big this October, Philadelphia could be in line for a repeat.

Indians Fire Wedge, Sort of:  The Indians announced at a press conference yesterday that Manager Eric Wedge and his staff were fired, but would finish out the season. This is one of the few times where an employee (or in this case employee’s) get two weeks notice from their employer. Was it really necessary to have a press conference to announce, what pretty much everyone in baseball already knew? No one thought that Wedge was going to be retained after the year he had. The Indians came into this year with legitimate playoff and World Series hopes, and are ending it with a bottom five finish. I don’t understand why you couldn’t just wait a week to have the press conference the day after the season is over. That seems to send a bit of a mix message to the players. At least the Indians didn’t pull an “Astros” and try to hire an “interim” manager for a handful of games. At this point you need to let Wedge manage out the rest of the season. Anything else would have been cheap and petty. Though the Indians P.R. department could probably use some lessons in decorum.

Tigers and Rockies pull away:  The Tigers and Rockies each picked up a game yesterday in their respective playoff races. The Rockies win over the Brewers yesterday, coupled with the Braves loss (Atlanta shot themselves in the foot all around yesterday) left the Rockies magic number at 1. Any Colorado win or Atlanta loss will clinch a playoff berth for the Rockies. Colorado still has an outside shot of winning the N.L. West and actually control their own destiny. They finish up with a three game series against the Dodgers, if they sweep the ‘boys in blue’, the Rockies will win the West. The Tigers did double damage yesterday with their win over the Twins, giving themselves a three game lead over Minnesota. With Detroit’s magic number now at 2, the Tigers can clinch the division today with another win over the Twins. If not things get a bit dicey as the Twins finish up with the Royals, while the Tigers have three remaining games against the White Sox. I’d look for Detroit to close it out at home today.

Expanding the Playoffs?

September 23, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Peter Gammons of ESPN had an interesting take today when he suggested expanding the number of teams that make the playoffs in baseball. His idea is one that hopefully gains some traction, because it is long overdue. Gammons suggests that they have a second Wild Card team and there is a three game “play-in” series in each league. I think it is highly intriguing, but say why stop there, and why limit it to a three game series?

The fact that only four teams in each league make the postseason is ridiculous (while we are at it can we expand by two teams so both leagues are even, and go to 4 divisions like the NFL). The NBA and NHL both have 30 teams like baseball and they have 16 teams make the playoffs, they also have ‘best of series’ showing its possible for baseball to expand as well. Now 8 teams per league would be too much, but going to an NFL format, where six teams (per league) make it and the top two division leaders get a bye in round one, makes a lot of sense. I would like to see the battle for three Wild Card spots (two if they did move to four 4-team divisions per league, but I shouldn’t get too greedy) opposed to what we have this year, when the playoffs are predetermined with 10 days to go (with the exception of the AL Central).

When you think about it an MLB season is twice as long as the NHL’s or NBA’s (in games played), and 10 times as long as the NFL, yet 22 teams don’t have a chance to win the World Series. I think we should expand the number of teams, not just to benefit the fans interest in the waning months of the season, or to help small market teams compete, but to add another incentive for teams to compete all they way to the end. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers might have acquired talent at the trade deadline this year, if their playoff chances were that much better. Its not just small to mid-market teams that would change their strategy, look at the New York Mets, their season went off the tracks early with a number of big injuries. By the time the trade deadline rolled around the Phillies were entrenched in first, which left the Mets competing with about 7 other teams for the NL’s one Wild Card spot. They decided, and rightly so, that with little chance of making the playoffs they would essentially ’punt’ on the rest of the season, and not give up any prospects in trades. Now if their post season chances were higher, they might have made some moves and been in the chase. The one detractor that most people say is that by extending the post season, baseball will go on until mid-November. I don’t think that has to be true, and with a few simple changes the problem can be solved. First I think you do what Gammons suggested and start the season half a week earlier. Next you eliminate at least two of the off days that teams get in April. Then you eliminate some of the off days that are already built into the playoff schedule. Right now there is only one ‘travel’ day built into the World Series, yet there are 3-4 built into the Divisional and Championship Series. Eliminate those and you have plenty of time for an extra round of playoffs. Which among other reasons to sell owners on expanding, will add millions of dollars in national television and radio money, to all baseball teams, not just the 12 in the playoffs.