Colts Begin Road to Miami?

Simple answer to that question is an emphatic YES! The Indianapolis Colts I think are the best team in the NFL, and have been all season. While they will now have to prove it against the Ravens vaunted defense, I don’t think anything can stop Manning and the Colts right now.

I realize the Ravens are a good team, that runs the ball REALLY well, and plays good defense, but I think Manning and the Colts will be too much for them this week. As good as Baltimore’s defense has been this season, they’ve had their share of lapses. And the Colts are one team they can’t give an inch to. Manning and the Colts have too many weapons for the Ravens to cover, and Baltimore’s pass defense is their one area of weakness. I think the Ravens may have some success on offense, but it won’t be enough. The Colts are notorious for giving up a lot of yards, but keeping teams off the scoreboard. Most of the yards the Colts give up are, garbage yards at the end of the game. They are susceptible to the run, but generate a ton of pressure that allows them to stop good passing attacks.

Now I think there are some concerns for the Colts, not the least of which being, how do they come out after not playing for three weeks. I’m normally not a fan of taking it easy at the end of the season, but I don’t see it affecting the Colts. Manning and company are too professional, and have the experience to overcome the rust from the layoff. While there are holes in their defense, I think the Colts will do enough to slow down the Ravens and their running game. I think Manning and the home crowd will be enough to overcome Baltimore, 31-17.

By Fanspeak Contributing writer Geoff Nelowet

The New Orleans Saints will dominate the Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals played in one of the most exciting playoff games of the decade last week, and they are fortunate to have walked away with a victory in a 51-45 shootout over the Green Bay Packers.  This week, the Cardinals will go up against a different animal in the New Orleans Saints, and it does not look like a match-up that favors the Cardinals.

The Saints and Cardinals are two high-powered offensive teams fraught with talent at the skills positions. The Saints’ Drew Brees has been arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, and he has made his entire team better. The Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at wide receiver has been the best receiving tandem the NFL has seen for numerous years, and quarterback Kurt Warner is an imminent hall-of-famer.

Despite the Cardinals’ offensive brilliance, this still sits as a bad match-up, as the Cardinals’ strengths are second-best to the Saints’. New Orleans had far and away the best offense in the NFL this past regular season, and they rarely ever had trouble moving the ball – even against some of the best defenses the NFL has to offer.

Couple that with the Saints’ ability to force turnovers on defense (3^rd in the NFL in interceptions), and the Cardinals will find themselves outmatched. Last week’s game was truly an anomaly, and the Cardinals will surely find themselves in a lower-scoring game in which late-game good fortune will not be enough. Drew Brees will lead his team as he has all season, the Saints will end the Cardinals’ playoff run. Final score New Orleans 38 Arizona 21

Three blowouts and one great game if you like offense, that is all you need to know to summarize this weekend’s playoffs. Overall though I can’t complain, because every team I was rooting for won. A couple quick points I want to make about the games this weekend:

–For all the talk about this being a quarterback league and that you need a franchise quarterback to win the big games, defense and the run game were the difference in the first round. The four highest paid QB’s in the first round all are going home and of those matchups you can really only say that Romo was better than McNabb (and that is a pretty close comparison). Though Warner is a ‘franchise’ guy, and Flacco and Sanchez could one day be as well, none of them were the best quarterback on the field.

–Running game and defense were the difference in ALL the games.

While you wouldn’t think the Cards could play defense with the way they were torched by Rodgers, they made two big plays early, as well as the fumble return that won the game in overtime. They also put more consistent pressure on Rodgers than the Packers defense did on Warner. The Cards out gained the Packers on the ground 156-90. The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Patriots from start to finish, they forced four turnovers and had Brady completely confused. They won with just 34 yards through the air (Flacco had a 10.0 QB rating!), because they controlled the running game 234-64.

As for the Saturday games: The Cowboys forced four turnovers, and also chipped in with four sacks. They out gained the Eagles 198-54 on the ground. The Jets game is the one exception as they didn’t out rush the Bengals, both teams finished with 171 yards, but the Jets defense controlled that game from start to finish, with 3 sacks and forcing two turnovers. For the Bengals, running the ball is the only way they could move it (not good when they spent most of the game trailing) as Darrelle Revis absolutely shutdown Chad Ochocinco.

–Another interesting thing was of the three repeat matchups from week 17, only the Cardinals changed their fortune: We heard all week how you should take the results from week 17 with a grain of salt, because the playoffs are different, or they ran vanilla offenses, or that the Bengals, Eagles and Cards were resting their players, or that they weren’t trying because they had nothing to play for (even though the Eagles definitely did have something to play for). Despite all the talk and rhetoric all week, the exact same result happened when the Bengals and the Eagles got on the field this weekend (and the Bengals were now at home).

–The thing I love the most, is the four teams that were considered the “sleepers” or “dark horses” are now out of it: All year we heard about the Patriots being back this year, now that Brady was healthy New England was going to pick up where they left off in 2007. And the talk didn’t die down when they lost to the Colts or the Saints, or a few other games a ‘dominate’ team should have won. Instead it turned to how they would be a different team in the postseason, and a team that could go to the Super Bowl. In reality they weren’t a great team and got blown out yesterday (how hard is it to figure out the Raven’s offense: run right, run right, run left, run center, run right?).

The Bengals all season we heard how they were a new team with a ground game and defense to go along with Palmer and Ochocinco. Well the running game worked, but Palmer was off all day on Saturday. And what happened to that defense, not only did the Jets run over them, but they couldn’t figure out the Jets simple passing attack or get any pressure on Sanchez (has anyone ever seen two more simplistic offenses than the Ravens and Jets be successful in the playoffs??).

In the NFC, for a long time the Eagles became a favorite third option for all the analysts who didn’t want to pick a front runner. And Philly looked like an even better pick once the Vikings and Saints started struggling down the stretch. They looked anything but a Super Bowl contender on Saturday. The Packers became another favorite pick down the stretch, despite the fact questions about their O-line, pass defense and running game hadn’t been answered. All the talk of how they were a new team after the Cowboys game and that if they faced the Vikings and Favre again the outcome would be different is all for naught.

Running to Victory:

The Jets and Bengals will meet up for the 2nd straight week, though this time the Bengals will the home team, and will hope for a different result. Last week they got absolutely demolished 37-0. Now the most ardent Bengals fan will tell you that they played a ‘vanilla’ game and they rested their starters in the 2nd half. What they forget to mention is that Carson Palmer has had some bad performances in recent weeks (even if you excuse Sunday night’s debacle) against the Browns, Vikings and Chiefs. Now you can understand Vikings game, they were on the road, and Minnesota is a pretty good team. But struggling against the Browns and Chiefs is a bit more problematic, those are the two worst teams in the AFC this season (they also lost to Oakland earlier this year). What’s more, is it wasn’t just Palmer who has struggled some, their running game has come to a halt of late, and their defense isn’t dominating like it did earlier in the year. The one saving grace for the Bengals is they face the New York Jets and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez.

One dimensional doesn’t even describe the Jets offense right now, as all they truly do is run the football (the only positive is you know you can run some play-action passes against the Bengals today). While we’ve seen our fair share of run-oriented teams with a strong defense make the playoffs in recent years, and the Ravens, Steelers (in 2005), and Bears all went to the Super Bowl, none of them compare to the Jets this season. Mark Sanchez has a bright future, and may one day end up being a franchise quarterback. That day won’t be today, as the Jets know the more passes Sanchez attempts the lower the teams chances of winning are. And it wouldn’t shock me in the least if Wildcat quarterback Brad Smith dusted off the old arm and put the ball in the air a few times.

The fact is I don’t think the Jets will need to throw the ball too many times, as I see their running game having no problems carrying the load today against the Bengals. The Bengals defense has fallen off as the season has worn on, and the Jets have too many weapons running the ball with Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, and Brad Smith all figuring to get their share of carries. The Jets also have one of the league’s best offensive lines, who have opened up big holes all season for Jets’ runners. With that kind of ground game, I think the Jets will call a couple play-action passes and a few screens to keep the defense somewhat honest. Outside of that I think New York will keep on running it until the Bengals show they can stop it.

It will be up to the Jets defense to keep the Bengals from scoring and give the offense some short fields to work with. I see their defense having no trouble either task. The Jets were first in the league in points allowed, total yards and passing yards (thank you Darrelle Revis). Their rush defense was 8th and quite a force as well. To see just how dominate the Jets passing defense was, one only needs to look at this stat: The New York Jets had the 31st ranked passing offense (in terms of yards) yet in 10 out of their 16 games had the top passer of the game (Sanchez 9 times, Clemens once). Of the 6 games where they didn’t have the top passer (solely in terms of yards, not interceptions) the QB’s that beat them were Brady twice, Brees, Henne, Garrard and Manning. That is pretty impressive considering only Brady threw for over 300 yards (in the 2nd game) and in the first game against Brady he had bad overall numbers just enough yards over Sanchez. I think the Jets defense puts up another great performance and shuts down the Bengals 24-13.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

Can Tony Romo Finally Win a Playoff Game?

Not only is this an NFC East divisional rivalry, but also this is a rematch of just last week’s meeting. Dallas trounced Philly 24-0 at home days ago, and it culminated in a season sweep over the Eagles. Last weekend’s contest determined the winner of the NFC East, and gave Dallas home field for the opening round of the playoffs.

The Cowboys have been up-and-down this season, and they have been a bit unpredictable, but they are a talented group that has come together at the right time. The Cowboys finished the season beating New Orleans, Washington and then Philly when many people had written them, as they had collapsed late in the season so many times before.

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there is still plenty of time left to collapse, and Tony Romo is still working on his first playoff victory. Should the Cowboys lose, there will be a lot of talk of Romo’s inability to pull out wins in the playoffs, which may be unfair and results-oriented, but that is criticism that comes with being a quarterback.

With that in mind, this is arguably Romo’s biggest game as a pro. He is going up against a team that he has already taken down twice this season. He beat the Eagles only a few days ago, and this playoff game is essentially a replay. The only difference is that it is the first game of the playoff tournament, and anyone that thought Romo was incapable of carrying a team in the playoffs will now have much more ammunition if the Cowboys lose.

If it has not been made clear yet, the Cowboys losing to the Eagles is a definite possibility. The Eagles have one of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL, and when Donovan McNabb connects on his deep plays – mainly to DeSean Jackson – they are virtually unstoppable. The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, are waiting for the winner of this game, will most likely be rooting against the Eagles because they are team nobody wants to face – even the Cowboys.

The Eagles will avenge both losses earlier this season, and they will hand Dallas yet another devastating and frustrating playoff loss that will re-open the “Romo can’t win in the playoffs” talk. Final score: Philly 30 Dallas 21

Well the regular season is over and there wasn’t much drama in yesterday’s playoff picture. The Ravens and Jets are in and the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos came up just short. Now 12 teams will go forward towards the goal of winning it all, and 20 teams will go home and wonder what went wrong. I’ll talk about the playoffs more later in the week, but I wanted to make a few quick points.

First, how odd is it that three of the four first round match-ups just played each other yesterday? And as a follow-up, how hard did the Bengals, Cardinals and Eagles try yesterday, because all those losses were pretty bad (especially Cincinnati ouch). I realize the Cards and Bengals played a lot of back-ups especially in the 2nd half, but those games weren’t even close. I’m sure they ran pretty watered down offenses, but you have got to do better than that. My final thought is how far can the Jets go on defense and their running attack? Sanchez right now is in over his head and can’t get into any kind of rhythm. I find it hard to believe that the Jets can go forward without some semblance of a passing attack (note to the Bengals, try 11 guys in the box next week, make Sanchez beat you). If you are a team sitting at home this playoff season, take a look at the Jets and realize that, you can win with mediocrity (or just awful play) from your quarterback, but you need to run the ball and you need to dominate on defense. On top of that, your defense needs to cause turnovers and give your one dimensional offense a short field to play with.

So for 20 teams, they now begin their offseason in hopes of emulating the the Bengals and Packers, and their impressive turnarounds. Today also marks a new direction for a number of franchises, as they begin to make coaching decisions. Last season we saw some surprises with Shannahan and Gruden being let go, and Dungy retiring. This season I don’t think we will see any surprises (unless the Cowboys fire Wade Phillips) on the coaching market, Jim Zorn has already been fired in Washington, and the Bills are looking for their next full-time coach. The Raiders and Browns seem likely to make coaching moves, but neither will be a big name given the situations (Gruden could still be a possibility under Holmgren, but he’s not going back to the Raiders). A few other teams seem to be on the fence, but all have given some vote of confidence to their current coaches. So who do you think will be looking for a new coach when it’s all said and done?

The Playoffs are starting a week early for a few teams in the AFC, as their fates will be determined by what happens on the field today. The Ravens and Jets have the easiest chances, as they control their own destiny and will secure a playoff spot with a win today. The Ravens will have to get past Oakland, which on paper seems like an easy task, but they have already beaten the Steelers and Eagles this season, so Baltimore better not take them for granted. The Jets may luck out if the Bengals rest their starters. Even if they are facing the Cincinnati second string, the Jets can’t afford any Mark Sanchez miscues today.

If those teams can’t take care of business, the door opens up for the Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, and Dolphins (though so many things need to go right for either the Dolphins or Jags I would count them out at this point).  The Steelers face the Dolphins so they do have a bit of a challenge but I like their chances of winning. The Texans got absolutely no favors in the scheduling department, as they have to face the Patriots to determine their playoff fate. While New England could rest their starters, it is still an uphill climb for Houston. The Broncos have what looks like a cupcake game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but looks can be deceiving. The Broncos will be without their star wide receiver Brandon Marshall, who was benched by the team. They are coming off three straight losses, and look like a shell of a team that won 6 games to start the season. Kansas City on the other hand, almost upset the Bengals last week, and I’m sure would like nothing more than to end their division rival’s playoff chances.

So who will be in? Baltimore should beat Oakland securing one spot for themselves. I think the Steelers will beat Miami, and I would like to think Denver can still overcome Kansas City. As for the Texans I think they have a 50/50 shot of winning this game. All of that will be meaningless if the Jets win tonight. If they lose then I believe Pittsburgh will be in (if the Texans lose that 50/50 bet). But this can clutter up fast and you never know will happen until the game is played.

Either way I’m happy since I can just enjoy good football today (the Skins have been out of it since I think training camp). That is who I think will make it, what do you all think? Also which wild card team do the division winners not want to see in the postseason?

With two weeks to go the Playoff picture is firming up. While most of the divisions are decided, some of the Wild Cards are still in play.

In the NFC, the Cowboys and Packers are in control of the two wild cards, but the Giants are still alive and could take the spot if they win out.

The AFC is a bit more confusing, the Ravens and Broncos control their own destiny, but the Jaguars, Jets, Steelers, and Dolphins still are all in the playoff hunt. (Technically the Patriots and Bengals haven’t clinched yet, but that should just be a formality).

I think we will see the Cowboys and Packers in the NFC and the Ravens and Jaguars make the playoffs in the AFC. What do you guys think?

Everything seems to be lining up as 2009 being the Year of the Yankees. But before the champagne bottles get popped, New York needs to go through LA (possibly twice if they face the Dodgers in the World Series). The Angels already knocked off one AL East powerhouse.  Can they make it two in a row for the second World Series appearance this decade?

The Yankees like the Red Sox before them, are weak where the Angels are strong; speed, defense, and pitching depth. The Angels speed was a problem for the Yankees during the season when they swiped 17 bases on them. Even though speed is generally undervalued in the new Sabermetric world of baseball, the Angels are so good at it, and that gives them a big advantage. What is mainly ignored in the statistical interpretation of speed is the unquantifiable, the mental impact. When you have a fast runner on base, you are in the pitcher’s, catcher’s and every infielder’s head. It is enough where maybe that pitch isn’t perfect, or the reaction time to a hit ball is a split second slower, because they were focused on the runner (not to mention the defensive implications of holding a runner). The Angels defense is one of the best in the league and will take away a number of hits as long as the Angel pitching staff can keep it in the park. The depth of the Angels pitching staff should not be overlooked. The Yankees are set to start Sabathia on short rest for Game 4, while the Angels will throw Scott Kazmir for the first time in the series. This could affect tonight’s match up between Lackey and Sabathia. Will Girardi pull Sabathia earlier if his pitch count is getting up there, knowing that he has to throw him again in a couple days? Possibly, and having Lackey on a longer leash could be in the Angels best interest. Another thing the Angels pitching depth gives them is options. The Yankees lined up their starters as you would expect Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. The Angels on the other hand have the starting depth to switch up their rotation for the best possible matchups. Instead of using their Game 2 starter from the ALDS, Jered Weaver, a notorious fly ball pitcher, in the home run haven of Yankee Stadium, the Angels are throwing Joe Saunders, a lefty. Saunders has given up his share of homeruns this year, but him being a lefty helps neutralize the short porch in right, by turning around Swisher and Texiera, and making Damon pretty ineffective. The Angels put their pitching staff in the best position to win, and wisely went the matchup route against the formidable Yankees.

The Yankees might not have speed, defense, and pitching depth. But they have three things the Angels lack:  power, all-around talent, and Mariano Rivera. Rivera deserves his own category because he is so good that every team wishes they could clone him. They spend millions of dollars on closers to find someone comparable, but never find anyone as lights out as Rivera. He shortens the game better than any pitcher in the baseball. The Yankees have 9 full innings to score runs to win the game, the Angels have 7 1/3. After that point if the Yankees are leading a close game, Rivera is in and you can’t expect to score again. You may hope for a miracle, but that is likely as far as you will go. The Angels aren’t without their own power hitters, but they don’t compare to the Yankees lineup. Top to bottom they can hit the ball, as they had nine hitters with 13 or more homeruns, including seven with 20 or more. There really isn’t a true “weak part” of that lineup, including an entire infield of All-star caliber talent. As for the running game, I’m beginning to wonder if the decision to have Jose Molina as A.J. Burnett’s personal catcher, had less to do with personal chemistry and more to do with slowing down the Angels running game. Molina is much better than Posada at throwing out base stealers, pairing him up with Burnett helps neutralize the biggest weakness in the Yankees rotation. Sabathia and Pettitte are lefties making them harder to run on (especially Pettitte), but Burnett is someone the Angels could run all day on. Now having Molina in there makes it a little harder for Angels base runners. Whether it was an intended strategy or a happy coincidence the Molina-Burnett pairing should help the Yankees in this series. While I’m not a huge fan of the three man rotation in this series, (if it goes 7 games Sabathia will pitch three times) if anyone can pull it off its the Yankees. Sabathia is a work horse and has gone on short rest before. Though it could bite the Yankees, I think they survive and win this series in six.

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

This will mark the fourth time in the last six years that the Red Sox and Angels have met in the postseason. In the first three series Boston came out the winner (and twice went on to win the World Series). This year though I wouldn’t be booking my Boston ALCS tickets just yet though. The 2009 Angels are a better team than they were in the past. At the same time the Red Sox are falling, due to injury and ineffectiveness.

David Ortiz salvaged his year with a late power surge, but his offensive numbers were way down this year. Ortiz was awful this year against LHP’s which is something he’ll face quite a bit of in this series, as two of the Angels starters and their top two relievers are southpaws. Alex Gonzalez and Jason Varitek have become automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup. Mike Lowell has battled injuries all year, and while his offensive numbers have been solid, his defensive numbers are way down. Defense has become a big problem across the board on this team, as with the exception of Drew, Gonzalez, Youkilis (only at 1B) and Pedroia, everyone else is well below average defensively. Now to be fair those four players are all very good defenders at their positions, but they don’t make up for how bad the rest of the team is. Teams can run all day on Varitek and Martinez behind the plate, and moving V-Mart to 1B significantly weakens the defense as well. For all Ellsbury’s speed and range (and surprising good arm) he has been a liability in centerfield for Boston. Jason Bay, like many other outfielders before him, as looked completely lost playing in front of the Green Monster. On the pitching side of it, the Red Sox will need to rely on Dice-K to continue to overcome the control issues that plagued him at the beginning of the season, and Clay Buchholtz will need to give them a big time quality start in Game 3. Boston’s bullpen was thought to be their strength this season, but has overall been a bit of a disappointment. When they are on and have control they are devastating, because of the number of power arms they have. Unfortunately they have seemed to disappear in a number of big games down the stretch.

The best news for Anaheim is that their strengths are Boston’s weaknesses. While the Angels have some power hitters, they put more balls in play that should drop for hits against a weak Boston defense. Anaheim also relies on taking walks and speed which works pretty nicely against a Red Sox staff that has control issues right now, and a catching tandem that can’t throw anyone out. The Angels have a fairly strong defense across the board, with Bobby Abreu the only real liability in right field.  The Angels have a strong staff four deep, but its not a dominate playoff staff. The best thing going for it is the two lefties (Kazmir and Saunders) that should make Big Papi completely ineffective in Boston. Which is huge considering he hit two-thirds of his home runs at Fenway this year, and batted 50 points higher. If he’s out then that means that Varitek is likely starting (with V-Mart at 1B,  Youk at 3B, and Lowell DH’ing) hurting the lineup offensively and defensively.

The bad news for the Angels is in the end they are still going up against a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia,Youkilis, Bay, V-Mart, Lowell, and Drew. Not to mention facing a battery of Lester and Beckett in the first two games, with Papelbon closing the door. I do think in the star power and experience of the Red Sox will in out in the end. No they might not have the best bench, or defense. And there are more questions in their lineup and bullpen than in years past. But at the end of the day they are still the Boston Red Sox, and at the end of the series I think they will be advancing after squeaking by 3-2 in the matchup.