A Guest Blog By Fanspeak contributing writer Kyle Howard:

Just about a month away from the offical start of the MLB 2011 season. Many offseason publicity and free agency moves make this year in the MLB very interesting. Crawford to the Red Sox, Cliff Lee back to the Phillies, Werth to the Nationals, and Rafeal Soriano are only some of the new faces, in new places from this years offseason transactions. Here is my run through on my projections for this year:

AL East:

1) Red Sox; It kills me to put the Soxs as my division winners being a diehard Yankees fan but the Red Sox really beefed up their line up with the acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Their line up is as good as any in baseball and their pitching staff when healthy is top 5 in the league. Look for the Sox to make it back to October with either a division title or a wild card spot.

2) Yankees; Many Yankee fans look at this offseason as a failure. Not being able to convince Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke to come to New York was a tough pill to swallow. Their line up is still as lethal as any in the game and with the acquisition of Rafeal Soriano to help set up Rivera in the 9th really helped the needs of the bullpen. The starting pitching is going to be the real question mark throughout the season. If Burnett can turn his season around, Nova can turn into an every 5 day starter and the Mark Prior project can make strides, the Yankees will be pushing for yet another division title. Look for them to contend with the Sox until the last month of the season and either walking away with a wild card spot or best case scenario a division title.

3) Orioles; The Orioles are my surprise team of the league this year. They have done a great job of loading up on young talent and I feel that 2011 is the year they start making some noise. With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters being the focal points of this team, the pitching talent needs to step up and you may be looking at a very dangerous team in the next few years. Look for the Orioles to have an above average year and finishing 3rd in the AL East.

4) Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay is in a transitioning period. They lost Crawford, Garza, and Soriano to free agentcy/trades and that leaves some big holes to fill for some young talented players in their farm system. With the acquistion of Manny and Damon, the Rays bring in some experience to their club with a more risk/reward mentality. The Rays staff is still a dangerous one lead by David Price and Evan Longoria will only improve and maybe a darkhorse candidate for MVP this year. Give the Rays some time to develop and they will be back in the postseason within the next couple of weeks.

5) Toronto; With still lingering questions on what Toronto’s next move is going to be, look for them to have a down year this year. Jose Bautista coming off a 54 home run year campaign and getting an extention I could see having a downer year. With some young potential pitching talent, look for the Blue Jays to use those as trade bait especially strikeout specialist Brandon Morrow.

AL Central:

1) Twins; It is difficult for me to pick a winner in this division being as the parity is so well distributed, so I will take experience and choose the Twinkees as the division winner. With Morneau coming back and the ability to resign Pavano, who is an innings machine, the Twins are poised to be the front runners of this jam packed division. If Nathan comes back healthy from his season ending surgury last year look for the Twins to be the winners of this division.

2) White Sox; Last year was a disappointment for the White Sox. With much publicity hovering over Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox struggled for most of the season. With the key offseason acquistion of Adam Dunn and resigning Paul Konerko this team will have quite a powerful 4 and 5 spots in their line up. Also, Buerhle leading the staff followed by Floyd and Danks, look for this team to contend with the Twins for the division title and the loser will be in the wild card hunt.

3) Tigers; The Tigers 2011 season is on the shoulders of how healthy/sober Miguel Cabrera can be. The man has as much talent as their is in the MLB but, off field troubles have put the Tigers in a spin. Offseason acquistion Victor Martinez adds some power to a line up that was in desperate need for help around Cabrera.  Verlander leads this young staff, and when he is on is one of the most powerful pitchers in the league. A sophmore slump from promising young star Rick Porcello was a key difference maker in the Tigers 2010 season. If Porcello can get over his 2nd year struggles, look for the Tigers to contend for a majority of the season, but I feel the off the field publicity and inexperience in pitching will lead them to a 3rd place finish.

4) Royals; Its been a bad decade for the Royals but, this year,  I can see them making some strides to becoming a better squad. Alex Gordon needs to become the player we all thought he would become when he was drafted 4th overall in 2005. Luke Hochevar splashed onto the scene last year with a decent season and showing signs he could become a decent starter at the Major league level. The Royals still have a long way to go but, if their draft picks start stepping up the next 5 years could look promising for this squad.

5) Indians; The Indians are in the rebuilding stage as an organization. With many young prospects gained from the Cliff Lee trade and Victor Martinez trade, look for this team to show a lot of new faces this year. Shin soo Choo is a rising star in the outfield showing signs of power and batting average and a good piece to build around. This will be a struggling year for the Indians and will stay that way unless they make some noise at the trade deadline.

AL West:

1) Angels; Coming off a very disappointing season last year look for the Angels to make it back to the postseason this year. With a star studed staff lead by Jared Weaver, Scott Kazmir, and Ervin Santana look for the pitching to help carry this team into October. Kendry Morales maybe the biggest difference maker on this team this season. If he comes back as healthy as he was before his ACL accident, look for him to be another darkhorse MVP candidate.

2) Texas; Losing Cliff Lee to free agency crippled this teams potential for years to come. Coming off of the organizations first World Series experience the sky was the limit for this team. Led by MVP Josh Hamilton and power slugging OF Nelson Cruz, this team will go as far as these 2 stars can stay healthy. With questions surrounding the starting staff, look for the Rangers to pick up an arm at the trade deadline in hopes of making another push into October.

3) Athletics; The Athletics have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball and they live and die on how well these young guns can do. Grant Balfour, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill,  Brett Anderson, and Andrew Bailey are the cornerstones of this young franchise. Dont be surprised if they A’s make a push at the deadline by moving one of these players for a bat in an often weak line up with an aging Eric Chavez. Look for the Athletics to continue rebuilding and continue improvement for years to come.

4) Mariners; The Mariners need power and they need it fast. The Mariners were last in almost every statistical batting category last year and they need to add some power to that line up. With much promise in former 2nd overall pick Dustin Ackley from UNC, it wont be a surprise to see him starting by mid season. Felix Hernandez is just a decent offensive team away from being arguably the best pitcher and baseball and look for him to continue his dominence in 2011.

NL East:

1) Phillies; Many analyst have it already penciled in that the Phillies will be holding up another World Series Title come October in 2011. With possibly the best 4 starters ever to be assembled on a single team, look for them to dominate most of the teams in the NL. Additions such as Cliff Lee only make this team even stronger and a star studded line up to back him up it will be quite a challenge to take this team in a 7 game series. With Werth gone that opens up the spot for top prospect Dominic Brown to take the rains of right field. The Phillies will walk away with this division and by July be focusing on the Playoffs.

2) Braves; The Braves suprised many of us last year and this year are a team not to mess with. With Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe leading the staff and the emergence of Jason Heyward becoming a star in the MLB, and the acquisition of Dan Uggla,  look for the Braves to win a wild card and being on an upset alert come playoff time.

3) Marlins; The Marlins have been trying to develop young talent for most of the past couple of years in hopes of turning into a legit playoff squad. Lead by MVP candidate Hanley Rameriz and pitching stud Josh Johnson, the Marlins are looking for an additional bat and arm to help make a charge at a competitive East division.

4) Mets; I really do not know where to start with Los Mets. They have as much talent as a team would need to make an apperance in the postseason but, for some reason they never seem to all click at the same time. Look for this years Mets team to be centered around David Wright and a healthy Jose Reyes. Pitching is very suspect due to Johan having elbow surgery. Look for the Mets to try and compete but come up short in the East race.

5) Nationals; Being from Northern Virginia and having been to multiple Nats games its difficult for me to put them in this position. Strasburg is what brought this team alive and made them play with passion and pride but, with Tommy John Surgery dont look for Strasburg to be throwing until September, if they even decide to let him throw at all. With key acquistion of Jayson Werth, the Nats will be along the same lines of production as last year. The future looks bright in Washington and if Strasburg can come back as good as he left, and Harper doesn’t disappoint down in the minors, this team will be fun to watch in the coming years.

NL Central:

1) Cubs; I know its as shocking to you as it is to me that the Cubs are going to finish first in the division. The Cubs made a key move in acquiring Garza this winter, and if their young talent continues to produce look for them to be a sneaky good team come playoff time. This pick is definitely a stretch and my upset of the year.

2) Reds; The surprise team of the year in 2010, the Reds will be looking to capitalize on thier run last year and continue it into this year. Joey Votto is the leader of this squad and looks to duplicate is MVP year last year and transition it to this year. Pitching was a strong point for the Reds last year but, I feel that they will struggle this year with to much inconsistentcy. Look for the Reds to make it back to the post season and be a contender as a wild card.

3) Cardinals; The Cardinals would be first in the Central if it werent for the staggering news on Adam Wainwright out for the season. The loss of Wainwright equals trouble for this club. With the huge injury to the staff and an unhappy Albert Pujols, look for this club to have a difficult time with all the distractions and end up chasing a wild card spot.

4) Brewers; The Brewers have 2 young stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, arguably 1 of the best tandems in the league. With the line up set up to produce runs the Brewers made a huge trade in aquiring Zack Greinke to help with the staff. Look for the Brewers to improve and possibly take the Cardinals spot and fighting for a spot in the post season.

5) Astros; It is easy to say that the Astros are in a rebuilding year. Losing Roy Oswalt to a trade pretty much sums it up. With young talent in the minors and an aging outfield minus Hunter Pence, look for the Astros to struggle most the year and look to being sellers at the deadline

6) Pirates; This team is the only team that manages to get great prospects and trade them away. The Pirates have not had a well established club since the 80′s and I don’t see that happening this year. Their one true star Andrew McCutchen is a lead-off hitter and you can’t build a team around that. Zack Duke will finish with a sub .500 win record and they will use many new arms from their farm system this year. Sorry so called “City of Champions” but you may want to concentrate on NFL happening in the fall and Crosby recovering over watching this squad this year.

NL West:

1) Giants; The defending World Series Champions have to be the favorites to come out of this jam packed West division. Offseason loss of World Series MVP, Edgar Renteria, leaves a big hole at shortstop and Juan Uribe’s departure to division rival LA leaves a big spot open at the utility role. With the young guns on the pitching staff such as Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner leading the way and crazy Wilson closing out games, look for this team to make it back to the Postseason in a coinflip of a division.

2) Rockies; the Rockies struggled last year despite the fact they are known as being a second half team only 2 years removed from their prolific playoff run. With flame thrower Ubaldo Jimenez leading the staff and Troy Tulowitzki the captain of the team. Look for the Rockies to make some noise and be a strong challenger for being the wild card team come October.

3) Padres; the Padres had a banner of a year last season coming down to the wire last season with the Giants going into the last game of the season. The Padres have an underrated pitching staff lead by rising star Mat Latos, with verterans such as Jon Garland to help mentor the fire baller. Free Agency hit the Padres hard by losing their superstar first basemen Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. I can see the Padres relying on their arms to keep them in the race but with no one significant to replace Gonzalez, runs are going to be hard to come by for this club.

4) Diamondbacks; This team is tricky to pick. One day their hot the next day their not. After giving up Dan Haren to the Angels in return for some prospects, the diamondbacks are clearly a process in the making. Relying heavily on star outfielder Justin Upton is going to be too much for this team to overcome.

Playoff Predition:

AL                                           NL                                         World Series

Red Sox                              Giants                               Phillies vs. Red Sox

Yankees                            Cubs                                         Phillies win 4-2

Angels                               Phillies

Twins                                 Rockies

It has been a rough year for Pirates and their fans, but at least there is a silver lining to their season of losing, and that is getting the number 1 overall pick next year. While the number 1 pick should never be looked at as a badge of honor, their is no better way to energize your fanbase and rebuild your team than with top young talent. The Pirates witnessed first hand just what it means to have a number one overall pick, when they went to Washington in early June and faced the Nationals 2009 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg in his Major League debut. Strasburg blew away the Pirates for a franchise record 14 strikeouts (on a pitch count no less) in front of 40,000 Nats fans.

That is exactly what the Pirates need a player with the hype and talent to energize the fanbase and make the team a better product on the field. Now obviously the Nationals had a setback with Strasburg getting injured later in the year, but his presence keeps the future bright for Washington. The Pirates have done a good job assembling some young talent (which is a big reason why they ended up with the top overall pick) on their major league team, and have a farm system stocked to the brim with promising young arms, due to an aggressive draft strategy these last couple of years.

While the Pirates might not find a Stephen Strasburg in this draft, there are a number of very good prospects for the Pirates to choose from. While the Pirates have shown no hesitation to spend on high schoolers if they are worth the price tag, this is a good year to have a top pick since it is brimming with college talent. For their fans sake the Pirates need someone to rise quickly through their organization and join the young talent they currently have assembled on their roster.

While a lot can change between now and next June, the top 5 players who will be draft eligible next season are college guys and all are worthy of a number one overall pick:

Anthony Rendon – 3B Rice: Rendon is coming off a bad ankle injury, but if he still shows he can hit, it shouldn’t affect his draft status. While the Pirates have Pedro Alvarez at 3rd right now they can always shift him over to first, since Rendon is a superior defender. Barring some unforeseen failure to come back from the injury I think he has to be the Pirates pick. Middle of the order bats don’t grow on trees, and those that play above average-good defense at a tougher position like 3B are very rare.

Gerrit Cole – RHP UCLA: Cole is the closest thing in this draft to Strasburg and a strong Junior campaign could push him to challenge Rendon for the top spot. While he has the ability to be a number 1 pitcher, he isn’t as advanced as Strasburg. He would have to be significantly above Rendon for me to take him over the 3B. Pitchers are always harder to project, have a higher injury risk, and obviously don’t play everyday. While the Pirates are desperate for starters it is never good to draft based on need. Also this is a deep draft and they should be able to get very good pitchers in rounds 2 and 3.

Matt Purke – LHP TCU: Purke was the top pick of Texas two years ago, but they couldn’t find the money to sign him. Now as a draft eligible sophomore he will likely end up a top 5 pick. While he isn’t quite yet in the same class as David Price he is firmly a number 2 pitcher with the potential to develop into a number 1. If he blows up this year, and Rendon and Cole struggle a bit he is well worth the top spot.

George Springer – OF UCONN: Springer is really shooting up draft boards with a strong summer and 5-tool potential. His strikeouts remain high, but has great power and could even project to play in CF (though RF might be his best position). If Springer has a great year, he could appeal to the Pirates if Rendon doesn’t come back from the injury and they prefer an everyday guy.

Taylor Jungmann – RHP Texas: In most years Jungmann would be a top pick, or would fall no worse than 3rd overall but in this draft class he might be lucky to hang on to a top 5 spot. He has number 1 pitching potential, but will likely end up more as a very good number 2 (and nothing wrong with that at all). His secondary pitches still need some work as does his command, but Jungmann remains a top pitching prospect and one with an outside shot of going first overall.

Winners:

Texas Rangers: The Texas Rangers might be in bankruptcy, but you wouldn’t know that from all the deals they have made in the past month. First they went out and traded for Cliff Lee, the best pitcher on the market, and a veteran catcher in Benji Molina. Then they added a couple of bats and infield depth in Jorge Cantu and Christian Guzman. The Rangers finished up their trading yesterday by sending one time top prospect Jarrod Saltalmacchia to the Red Sox for a pair of solid low minor leaguers, a player to be named later and cash. While the Rangers gave up one great prospect, a few good ones, and a couple of interesting pieces, they reshaped their roster and are poised for a deep playoff run (and got a lot of cash to offset the returning salary). At the same time they still have one of the deeper minor league systems, and can restock for future playoff runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Considering the fact that the Pirates hadn’t made any real moves before yesterday it is a bit shocking to see them on this list, but Pittsburgh shed a lot of dead weight off their roster and got some useful players in return. In three separate deals the Pirates traded away OF Ryan Church, INF Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco to Arizona, LHP Javier Lopez to the Giants, and RHP Octavio Dotel (and $500K) to the Dodgers. In return they got C Chris Snyder, INF Pedro Ciriaco and cash ($ 3 million) from the D-Backs, RHP Joe Martinez and OF John Bowker (AAA) from the Giants and RHP James McDonald and OF Andrew Lambo (AA). While the guys the Pirates got in return won’t set the world on fire or likely bring a pennant to Pittsburgh, they have some upside Snyder is a bit pricey for next year, but that $3 million helps, and Ciriaco, Martinez and Bowker are basically younger cheaper versions of Church, Crosby and Carrasco. McDonald and Lambo were both one time top prospects in the Dodgers system, and while their status is tarnished some they are a nice haul for Octavio Dotel and $500K. Snyder gives Pittsburgh at worst a solid platoon catcher and could end up being a solid starter. Lambo especially has the tools to develop into a good starting outfielder and at just 21 can still reboot his career. That is not a bad return for Crosby and Lopez who were free agents and Church who they were going to non-tender. Dotel had an option for next year but he was redundant and pricey in the Pirates pen. And while Carrasco has two more Arb. years remaining he is 33 years old and will cost over $1.5 million next year. When it is all said and done, the Pirates did well to add some younger talent, without really increasing payroll for next year.

There has been a lot of talk recently of the General Managers and commissioner Selig getting together on ways to fix Major League Baseball’s amateur draft (Buster Olney has an excellent article about the issue at ESPN, subscription required). The crux of the problem is that there is a major disparity between teams that spend money on big signing bonuses and those who don’t. As a result some of the best young talents slide 5, 10, even 20 spots in the first round. On top of that teams will handout signing bonuses of 1st or 2nd round money to players all throughout their draft class.

Right now there is a ‘slotting’ system in place, where each draft position has a ‘recommended’ bonus. Unfortunately, there is no real tangible penalty the league can enforce for going over slot. And the only teams the league can put pressure on are the small market teams (aka the ones who can least afford to go cheap in the draft) by withholding money or events. Now there are a number of ways the league could look to improve/fix the draft, but I think the area they should focus on; are the trading of draft picks and players rights.

Before I get into my proposal, I wanted to highlight the option that seemingly is the one most bandied about, hard slotting. Hard slotting is essentially assigning a bonus amount for each draft slot and if the player signs thats what they get. Now that is glossing over it a bit, but it would make the MLB Draft similar to the NBA draft. The problem with that is there are few similarities between the MLB and NBA in player development. In the NBA, players are ready to enter the league and for the most part begin their career from day one. In Baseball even the elite prospects need a year or more of minor league development time. There is a greater uncertainty of MLB prospects even making it to the big leagues, much less having successful careers. That is why the draft is 50 rounds (though teams sign traditionally between 25-35 players, sometimes more) compared to 2 rounds for the NBA.

In other leagues, the draft is usually predicated on team needs, baseball is the exception to that rule, since they can’t predict the impact of a particular player. Another issue for baseball teams is that their prospects have considerable more leverage than other sports. In NFL or NBA if you are drafted, you sign or hold out. In baseball if you are drafted not only can you sign or hold out, but players can decide to go to/back to college, or even play in independent ball for a season. With this extra leverage teams have to pay a higher price for talent. If there was a hard slotting system, plenty of mid-round players who sign for first round money would simply just go to school instead of now signing for 4th or 5th round money. Hard slotting would limit the talent pool each season, and make it harder to rebuild through the draft (though I’m sure colleges would be happy). For these reasons baseball teams need more flexibility in building their roster, and a deeper talent pool, two things they can’t do with hard slotting in place.

What Baseball does need to do is allow the trading of draft picks or draft rights. As it stands now draft slots can’t be traded and any player who is drafted must not only sign with his drafted team, but also be with the organization for a year after signing until he can be traded. The one semi-workaround of this archaic rule is the “Player To Be Named Later” (PTBNL) rule that allows a six-month window to ‘name’ the player, so a player drafted in June could be traded the following December or January as a PTBNL. Even in that instance a player needs to sign with that original team, before he could be named as a PTBNL. This is easily the worst rule in baseball, and one that again hurts the wrong teams. The rule is in effect so small market teams won’t “sell” a player or pick to a big market team for just cash. And that I understand, draft picks shouldn’t be sold if the original team isn’t getting any ‘baseball’ value back. But is the eliminating of all trading the only way to ensure this? The league already must approve any trade of over $1 million dollars in cash changing hands…wouldn’t that bylaw stop any shady transactions? Now instead of a big market team like the Yankees or Red Sox having to trade up for a top prospect, and they stay where they are and still potentially get that player.

The best example of why this rule is out of date is this past year’s draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles, two rebuilding franchises, who had each spent big money on a single prospect over the past two years, selected 4th and 5th in the draft. With the top talents Strasburg and Ackley off the board, they were left looking at an industry consensus of a number of high potential pitching arms to choose from. The problem is most of those players were rumored to be asking for bonuses between $5-7 million, so instead of drafting one of those arms the decided to draft 1st round talents (though not considered top-5) who would sign for the recommended ’slot’. While it looks as though the Pirates and Orioles took the ‘cheap way’ out, they spent the money they saved on their 1st round pick later in the draft signing a number of players for more than ‘slot’. They ended up being the 5th and 6th biggest spenders in last years draft (according to numbers compiled by Baseball America). They ended up being punished for their not wanting to break the bank on a particular player, and going with quality-quantity over one big name prospect. If they had been able to trade back they could have still gotten the player they wanted, as well as additional draft picks later to further deepen their impressive draft classes. In addition they actually “overpaid” their draft picks, since if they traded back and drafted them 5-10 spots later their ‘slot’ value would be less. The trading of picks has no downside in today’s game of baseball and will allow teams who aren’t in love with the industry consensus player, to get extra value out of their pick.