Every year multiple NFL teams face a tough decision, to draft or not to draft a quarterback in the first round. The general consensus (aka just about everyone else but me) believes that more and more the NFL is a quarterback driven league, and a ‘franchise’ quarterback is needed to succeed. It is also the belief that ‘franchise’ quarterbacks are found by drafting them in the first round.

To the first point about the only way to succeed is with an elite quarterback, I feel like there is some selective memories going on around the league. I guess someone forgot about the great Steelers and Ravens teams of the past decade with pretty average quarterback play (Roethlisberger has become an elite QB, but he wasn’t one when they won in 2005). Or the fact when the Patriots won their first two titles, Tom Brady’s numbers were pretty pedestrian. And if those trips down memory lane don’t blow holes in the “elite QB=success” argument, then just look at this past season when Mark Sanchez, who was one of the statistically worst quarterbacks in the league, was under center for the most dangerous team this postseason.

When it comes to the second point, that elite quarterbacks are found primarily in the first round, its hard to see where that argument even begins to hold water. The top ten quarterbacks this past season in terms of quarterback rating were as follows:

1. Drew Brees
2. Brett Favre
3. Phillip Rivers
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Peyton Manning
7. Matt Schaub
8. Tony Romo
9. Tom Brady
10. Kurt Warner

Now this might not be the exact order of top quarterbacks in the league, but all of these guys are in the top 10, and are elite signal callers. Of this list of the 10 best passers from last season, only FOUR are former first round picks (Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Manning). The only quarterback not on this list that deserves mention in the ‘elite’ status among quarterbacks is Eli Manning another first round pick. Even with Eli included, less than 50% of the quarterbacks we consider ‘elite’ or ‘franchise’ were first round draft picks. Yet for some reason, the prevailing logic in the league is that you must grab a quarterback in the first round to be a successful franchise, and if you pass up your chance in the first round, you will never find that top notch signal caller.

Look, I get why teams want the next Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger, but the odds are stacked against them and you can’t force it upon players. They either have it or they don’t, and trying to create a ‘franchise’ quarterback will only lead to heartbreak, for the team and its fans. Here is a look at all the quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 1999-2009.

The reason I choose to start looking at 1st round quarterbacks, is because of the 1998 draft and the impact of Peyton Manning on the rest of the league. I also chose to begin looking after the ’98 draft, because THAT draft is the perfect dichotomy of RISK (Ryan Leaf) vs. REWARD (Peyton Manning) in drafting a franchise quarterback. Since Manning was drafted, 31 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round and there has been at least one quarterback selected in the top stanza in each of the 11 years, which is the longest such streak since the NFL merger in 1970.

1999:

1. Tim Couch – Browns – 1st pick
2. Donovan McNabb - Eagles - 2nd pick
3. Akili Smith – Bengals - 3rd pick
4. Daunte Culpepper – Vikings - 11th pick
5. Cade McNown – Bears – 12th pick

The allure to find the next Manning was quite prevalent in the first draft after his arrival. Couch, Smith and McNown were all busts and big time washouts in the league. Couch maybe had somewhat of an excuse because he was on an expansion team, but the same can’t be said for Smith or McNown. Culpepper had a couple of great seasons, but all in all ended up being a below average quarterback and not worth the money or draft pick. McNabb is the silver lining among this bunch. He maybe never achieved truly ‘elite’ status, but he has been a very good quarterback for a long time making him well worth the 2nd pick in the draft.

2000:

1. Chad Pennington Jets 18th pick

Pennington was a solid selection for the Jets. He has had his share of injury issues, which knock down his overall value, but has been a good starter when healthy.

2001:

1. Micheal Vick Falcons 1st pick

Even if you can ignore all his legal troubles (which did have a major effect on his on the field value), Micheal Vick has not even come close to being worthy of the top selection in the draft. Even in his prime, Vick was an electrifying player, but a bad quarterback. When you factor in his legal issues and time away from the game, Vick is a major bust. Especially when you figure the 2nd best quarterback in this class was Drew Brees (2nd round), ouch!

2002:

1. David Carr – Texans - 1st pick
2. Joey Harrington – Lions - 3rd pick
3. Patrick Ramsey – Redskins – 32nd pick

Carr and Harrington were two more top 5 busts. Neither ever showed any ability to be a quality starter, much less a franchise quarterback. Ramsey didn’t fare much better at the end of the first round, getting pushed out of DC by another future first round quarterback, Jason Campbell. 20o2 was not the ‘year of the quarterback’, with three picked and three busts to show for it.

2003:

1. Carson Palmer – Bengals – 1st pick
2. Byron Leftwich – Jaguars - 7th pick
3. Kyle Boller – Ravens – 19th pick
4. Rex Grossman – Bears – 22nd pick

’03 wasn’t much better of a quarterback year, Leftwich, Boller and Grossman all washed out with their respective teams (though they do remain in the league as backups). Palmer initially showed flashes of being an elite franchise quarterback, but had a really down year this past season. Palmer might never be a great quarterback, but could end up with a similar career path of McNabb, which makes him worthy of the top selection.

2004:

1. Eli Manning – Giants (t/Chargers) – 1st pick
2. Phillip Rivers – Chargers (t/Giants) – 4th pick
3. Ben Roethlisberger - Steelers – 11th pick
4. J.P. Losman – Bills – 22nd pick

Now 2004 was a fantastic year for quarterbacks, with 3 elite starters coming out of round one (not to mention Schuab was drafted in the 3rd round). A 75% success rate is unheard of for the first round, what’s even more impressive is how successful these quarterbacks have been. All three are top notch, and so far look to be true ‘franchise’ quarterbacks.

2005:

1. Alex Smith – 49ers - 1st pick
2. Aaron Rodgers - Packers – 24th pick
3. Jason Campbell - Redskins – 25th pick

Smith so far has been a major disappointment, though he did have some good starts down the stretch this season for the 49ers. Rodgers had trouble seeing the field his first three seasons, but since then has worked his way up to ‘elite’ quarterback status. Campbell has been solid and a quality starter, but is by no means a ‘franchise’ quarterback.

2006:

1. Vince Young – Titans – 3rd pick
2. Matt Leinart – Cardinals – 10th pick
3. Jay Cutler - Broncos – 11th pick

This draft class was supposed to produce 3 franchise quarterbacks, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Young got off to a great start in his rookie season, but came crashing down to earth in year two. He has started getting his career back on track, but it remains to be seen if he can be a good starting quarterback in the NFL. Leinart lost his job to Kurt Warner, and hasn’t shown too much in spot duty these last couple of years. He will now have the reins of the team with Warner’s retirement, and 2010 will be a make or break year for him. Cutler has been called a ‘franchise’ quarterback plenty. And the Bears even thought enough of him to give up multiple first round picks, additional selections and Kyle Orton before last season, but he has failed to show he is worthy of the ‘franchise’ label. While its too early to say any of these picks were a outright bust, its fair to say that their teams have all been disappointed with their investment (except for what the Broncos got in return for Cutler).

2007:

1. JaMarcus Russell – Raiders – 1st pick
2. Brady Quinn – Browns – 22nd pick

There is not much to pin your hopes on in this draft class. Russell has been downright awful so far, and Quinn hasn’t fared much better. Russell hasn’t shown that he grasps the nuances of the position yet. As for Quinn, the glimmer of hope isn’t completely gone, as part of his problem has been the fact the Browns coaches have inexplicably not allowed Quinn to see the field.

2008:

1. Matt Ryan - Falcons – 3rd pick
2. Joe Flacco – Ravens – 18th pick

So far, so good from this draft class. Ryan had a very impressive rookie season, though had a bit of a sophomore slump. I’d expect him to rebound and potentially put himself in the ‘franchise’ class within the next year or two. Flacco had an average rookie year, but really began to come into his own this past season. If he continues to develop, he shouldn’t be too far behind Ryan in joining the ranks of elite quarterbacks.

2009:

1. Matt Stafford - Lions – 1st pick
2. Mark Sanchez – Jets – 5th pick
3. Josh Freeman – Buccaneers – 17th pick

The early returns on the 2009 draft class aren’t pretty. While few rookie quarterbacks find any or much success, the numbers this trio put up were particularly awful. While hopefully one or two of these guys can be good starters in the NFL, they all have a long way to go. In fairness its too early to begin to proclaim any of these guys as a bust after one season, but some of the warning signs are there.

Later we will take a more indepth look at drafting quarterbacks in the first round and what teams can do to make their investment successful.

New Orleans Saints:

Why They Can Win:  The Saints had the league’s best offense this season, led by one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, Drew Brees. While Brees has his favorite targets in receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, he does a great job of distributing the ball to all his backs, receivers, and tight ends. Brees has one of the league’s top pass blocking offensive lines, giving him the time to get the ball downfield. Though the Saints o-line are top notch pass protectors their specialty is run blocking. The Saints had the 6th best rushing attack this season, which is impressive considering their passing attack and the lack of a true feature back. Instead of one workhorse, the Saints have a three-headed monster in the backfield with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush. The Saints defense isn’t nearly as good as their offensive counterparts, but they do have one major strength, turnovers. Be it luck or skill, the Saints are always around the ball forcing turnovers and creating points or scoring opportunities.

Why They Can’t Win: The Saints defense collapsed at the end of the season. First, they almost lost to both the Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons (without Matt Ryan), before losing their last three games against the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Panthers (The Carolina game was against many 2nd stringers). Major holes were exposed in pass coverage, and the Saints front seven couldn’t stop any rushing attacks. While its easy to point to their playoff wins against the Cardinals and Vikings and proclaim that those problems are behind them, that may be a bit premature. For one thing both of those games were at home, an advantage they won’t have tonight. Secondly, the Arizona game could easily be an aberration, since they injured Kurt Warner severely limiting the Cardinals ability to produce offensively. Lastly, the defense wasn’t the cause for beating the Vikings, as Minnesota handed them the game with their fumbling issues. Favre and Peterson torched the Saints defense that day (though Peterson coughed up the game later), and the Saints caught plenty of lucky breaks with questionable officiating calls (If they try to go low on Manning you can bet there will be a penalty). So basically for the last two months the only time the Saints were able to slow down an opposing offense is when they injured a quarterback (and that didn’t even work against Favre).

Indianapolis Colts:

Why They Can Win: While it seems simplistic to boil this game down to Peyton Manning vs the Saints defense, he really is the biggest difference maker on the field. Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is in the prime of a Hall of Fame career, Manning is the best quarterback in the league, and is in the midst of becoming the best quarterback ever. There is no definitive way to stop him, or slow him down. Earlier this season in a game against the Miami Dolphins (a game which was held at Sunlife Stadium), the Dolphins held the ball for more than 45 minutes, yet Manning was able to throw for 300 yards and lead the Colts to 27 points. One of the long standing truths in football is if you have the ball for 3/4ths of the game you will win. In the Championship game against the Jets, New York blitzed Manning and took away his top two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Yet Manning was unfazed, throwing for over 370 yards and 3 touchdowns. Whats most impressive is that Manning is able to do what he does, despite not having a balanced attack. The Colts rushing game finished dead last in the league, even though they have two former 1st round picks in the backfield, and an offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league. Now partly that is due to the fact the offensive line is fairly overrated. They might have allowed the fewest sacks, but much of that has to do with Manning himself. No quarterback is better at reading pre-snap blitzes, allowing him to change the play and/or tell the offensive line who to block. In addition Manning is one of best quarterbacks at feeling the pressure and getting the ball away. Now Manning doesn’t do it solely alone, he does have his share of weapons on offense. In addition to Wayne and Clark (who both had 100 catches this season), Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Joseph Addai all have a big role in the passing attack. It’s not nearly as diverse as the Saints, but effective nonetheless. The Colts defense sometimes is misaligned as not being very good, but that is a mistake to count them out. They are notorious for giving up big yards, but then clamping down in the Red Zone. While its not always pretty, they always come up big in major games or situations.

Why They Can’t Win: The Colts defense is good, but they are not without weaknesses. They usually do better against one-dimensional teams, something the Saints are not. Their rushing defense has had major holes this season, and could be something the Saints can exploit. The Colts pass defense relies on the pressure generated by their front four, which is problematic against the Saints top notch offensive line, and Drew Brees quick release. That problem is even more of an issue if DE Dwight Freeney’s ankle prevents him from being 100% today. The injuries to Freeney and Wayne are going to be key today. While both should play, they will need to be at the top of their game for the Colts to win.

Outcome: Both teams have plenty going for them, and weaknesses that can be their downfall. In the end I think the Colts win behind Manning. I don’t think the Saints can get to Peyton enough to disrupt the offense, and if they aren’t getting to him then that means receivers will be open. On the flip side I believe the Colts defense will do enough to slow down Brees and company enough to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. Colts win 34-23.

Just How Good is Peyton Manning?:  When the Colts were down by 11, I think the Jets and their fans thought they could be Super Bowl bound, but they forgot about Manning. He absolutely went off on the number 1 ranked defense yesterday. And it didn’t seem to bother him that Darrelle Revis took away half the field, because Manning dominated the other half. For all we hear about Manning’s weapons of Wayne and Clark (a pair of former 1st round picks), it was Pierre Garcon (6th round 2008, Mount Union) and Austin Collie (4th round 2009, BYU) that dominated the Jets defense. It was just an all-around incredible performance by Manning yesterday, and showed why he is the best quarterback in the league.

Future Looking Brighter for Sanchez:  Mark Sanchez has had a tough rookie year and has been the weakest quarterback in the playoffs so far. He had shown flashes of being a good quarterback, but that was mostly against weaker competition and had also cost the Jets a few games this season. Of late though he’d been fairly mistake free, not because of major improvement in his game, but rather because of a much simpler passing attack. Sanchez was pretty much regulated to ‘safe’ intermediate and short throws so far in the playoffs. Yesterday though Sanchez had his best game of the playoffs (and his young career), he showed much better decision making and poise in the pocket. He didn’t try to force the ball in to coverage, and really showed something against a big team in the biggest game of his career. Now Sanchez has some things to work on, accuracy being the primary concern, but in 2-3 years Sanchez could become a pretty good starting quarterback.

Saints Go Marching On:  Who would have thought it would have been the Saints defense and special teams that sent them to the Super Bowl? While their defense got torched with yards and penalties, they came up with enough big plays to win yesterday. And how huge was the Peterson fumble right before half after the Bush muffed punt? That Saints defense all season has just been relentless in getting takeaways, and showed it again last night. Gregg Williams and company deserve most of the credit for that victory, because Favre had a great game yesterday. Think of what he would have done if he actually had time in the pocket? The Saints pass rush completely dominated the Vikings offensive line and had Favre on the ground quite a bit. The Saints defense was the key to the game, and is why they will be making their first Super Bowl appearance.

Just How Tough is Brett Favre?:  Now I realize all the talk now is about that last interception, and on whether or not it was Favre’s last game (again). But really we need to acknowledge that yesterday’s loss was on two things:  the offensive line play, and lack of ball control. Not only did the Saints recover a fumble inside the Vikings 20 yard line, but Minnesota coughed it up twice when they were at the Saints 10 yard line! And the offensive line, which had begun to collapse at the end of the season, looked awful yesterday. They couldn’t handle the stunts and blitz packages New Orleans was throwing at them, and Favre paid the price. Not only was he getting hit hard (and sometimes illegally), but he was injured and in obvious pain. Favre played well enough to win that game by a couple of touchdowns, but his 0-line and the fumbles cost them dearly.

Colts Begin Road to Miami?

Simple answer to that question is an emphatic YES! The Indianapolis Colts I think are the best team in the NFL, and have been all season. While they will now have to prove it against the Ravens vaunted defense, I don’t think anything can stop Manning and the Colts right now.

I realize the Ravens are a good team, that runs the ball REALLY well, and plays good defense, but I think Manning and the Colts will be too much for them this week. As good as Baltimore’s defense has been this season, they’ve had their share of lapses. And the Colts are one team they can’t give an inch to. Manning and the Colts have too many weapons for the Ravens to cover, and Baltimore’s pass defense is their one area of weakness. I think the Ravens may have some success on offense, but it won’t be enough. The Colts are notorious for giving up a lot of yards, but keeping teams off the scoreboard. Most of the yards the Colts give up are, garbage yards at the end of the game. They are susceptible to the run, but generate a ton of pressure that allows them to stop good passing attacks.

Now I think there are some concerns for the Colts, not the least of which being, how do they come out after not playing for three weeks. I’m normally not a fan of taking it easy at the end of the season, but I don’t see it affecting the Colts. Manning and company are too professional, and have the experience to overcome the rust from the layoff. While there are holes in their defense, I think the Colts will do enough to slow down the Ravens and their running game. I think Manning and the home crowd will be enough to overcome Baltimore, 31-17.

Last night the Colts did not look like a team that was going to let up and had nothing to play for, as pundits had been saying all week. Yes they might have the number 1 seed locked up, but they are taking nothing for granted. Last night’s game marked the 7th time this season the Colts have come from behind in the 4th quarter to win the game. While it might not be their number one goal, a perfect season seems to be reason enough to not rest their stars, and I tend to agree with them.

Perfect season or not, I always think its a mix bag to rest your stars and starters so much at the end of the regular season (and not just because of fantasy reasons). Teams that do so, already have a bye lined up in the first round, so you are talking about giving them two or more weeks off compared to the usual one bye week. A number of times in recent memory, those teams then subsequently get beat at home in their first playoff game. The Giants last season, and the Cowboys and Colts the year before, were 1st or 2nd seeds that rested their players for at least a half of their final regular season game, only to lose in the divisional round (those are only the most recent examples). What’s even more troubling is all three of these teams lost their final regular season game as well. Its not as though they were resting players because they were up by a couple of touchdowns. By resting a few star players (especially your quarterback) on offense, I think it screws up the timing and crispness of the of the offensive attack. It just doesn’t seem to make any sense to me when you are a team that has won 12 or more games, why would you want to concede a win at the end of the season? I think that can take away the fire and drive of team, and resting for two weeks only compounds that.

Now I know what proponents for resting players say, about avoiding injury and keeping players fresh, and I get that. If you have everything wrapped up, I wouldn’t send out a player who’s not 100% to play in a game. But outside of that, I fail to see how you are avoiding injury. We see players get injured every year by doing non-football related activities or in practice, are we going to put these players in protective bubbles? Players could also get injured on the first play of their first playoff game, there is no predictive factor on when someone is getting injured. Yes, I understand that by resting them, players aren’t taking hits that could cause an injury. But remember if a running back or any ball carrier goes a couple of weeks without taking a major hit in a game, then he could be more likely to fumble the first time he is hit in the playoffs.

I think what’s more intriguing than the injury issue, is that proponents of  resting players will say there is no real evidence that resting players in week 17 causes them to lose in the playoffs. Now I get that there is some truth to that, obviously in the playoffs the competition is tougher so its easier for a 13-3 or 14-2 team to falter, because they are playing another quality team. And there are also cases of teams who do rest players in the regular season, who do go far into the postseason. While both of those points are true, they completely ignore the one or more teams each season who do fall victim to the time off. What’s more is this experience isn’t just a football phenomenon. While the circumstances may be different, we see in every sport teams that have a large amount of time off between playoff series come out completely flat and lose the next series. Now in other sports its not by choice, but rather they sweep their earlier opponents, but it seems to be a chronic issue. I think its pretty well a given that in football the one sport where you can avoid too long of a layover, you should.

I thought what the Colts did last night was the right way to play it. They rested some of their defensive stars for the majority of the game. And were extremely cautious with anyone who has a nagging injury. In the end though their big time offensive stars played the whole game and looked really good. Manning was more or less perfect, and Wayne and Clark were unstoppable when they needed to be. Right now this is a team that is running on all cylinders, and I hope they stay that way. I don’t see why you mess with a good thing. And as the saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

Last night with the Patriots vs. Colts Sunday Night Football matchup, we expected a battle between two powerhouses, and we weren’t disappointed. But for 56 minutes of this game the Patriots and Bill Belichick were in complete control with a 34-21 lead. Then Peyton Manning, showed that he is Peyton Manning. He drove the Colts 79 yards in 6 plays in just a 1:49, to cut the score to 34-28. The Colts defense came up with a big stop, leaving the Patriots 4th and 2 on their own 28 with 2:08 remaining on the clock.

Belichick elected to punt the ball to give as much distance between the endzone and future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning to go for it to run out the clock. Now, I like aggressive and bold play calling more than most people, but that is something you do playing Madden NFL 10, not on the road playing a game that will have playoff seeding implications. What was Belichick thinking? The first rule of football coaching is “You do not give Peyton Manning the ball on your own 29-yard line”, the second rule of football coaching is “You do not give Peyton Manning the ball on your own 29-yard line”.

Yeah I get it, Belichick supporters will point out that Manning drove 79 yards in a 1:49 seconds earlier, and the Colts still had one timeout remaining. And those people are right–2 minutes with one timeout is an eternity for Manning (that’s like 8 minutes with 3 timeouts for the Washington Redskins). But you have to have some faith in your defense to stop Peyton Manning with the game on the line. I mean its not as though this was the Browns or Lions defense. New England has a top 10 defense, overall and against the pass. They shut down Manning and co. for a good part of the game, forcing the Colts to punt 6 times in the first half (I think months have come and gone without the Colts punting 6 times). Maybe they wouldn’t have been able to shut down Manning, but at least you would have given them a fighting chance. The field was so short that the Colts were literally wasting time between plays, to make sure they didn’t score too quickly.

In the end, Belichick should have danced with the girl that brought him, his defense. Now I know everyone loves Tom Brady and the Patriots offense, and thinks they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. But they aren’t the reason the Patriots have three super bowl trophies. Don’t get me wrong the Patriots offense has been good during their Super Bowl runs, and in 2007 it was downright exceptional, but their defense has been the key to their success. Without their dominating defense they would have never been in a position to go to four Super Bowls (many times going through the Colts on their way).

Belichick needed to put the game in their hands and let the chips fall where they may. If they hold them, then you are a genius and the Patriots could be looking at home-field advantage in the playoffs. If the defense faltered, then it was a tough loss on the road against a great quarterback, and you wouldn’t be questioned about it ever again. Now Belichick will be second guessed for the rest of the season (and rightly so), home-field advantage in the playoffs is pipe dream right now, and there is a real possibility that New England will miss out on a bye. Last night’s decision was a major mistake, one that he will regret for the rest of the season. But that’s my opinion…what do you think and why?

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots

2. Miami Dolphins*

3. Buffalo Bills

4. New York Jets

The Patriots right now are in control of this division with Brady back and some key additions to the secondary and running back positions. I don’t think New England will run away with this division though. I think both the Dolphins and Bills will contend for the first half of the season. I’m not to worried about Miami facing a tougher schedule this season, I still think 10 wins is something they are capable of attaining. As for the Bills, the addition of T.O. should help them, but probably won’t get them over the hump this season. Even though I love the Jets defense, its hard to imagine that they can win more than 6-7 games with a rookie quarterback and no real top wide receivers.

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Baltimore Ravens*

3. Cleveland Browns

4. Cincinnati Bengals

In some ways the Steelers might be better this season then they were last year during their Super Bowl run. They are healthier and more balanced at running back, and should have an improved offensive line. They also put an emphasis on special teams this off season, and with the return of punter Daniel Sepulveda, their biggest weakness last season should be a strength this year. The Ravens are a good team that should only be getting better as Flacco matures. Their defense is still top notch and this could be the year their offense matches their production. It should be a neck and neck race to the finish again to see who wins the North. The Browns need to decide on a quarterback (it should be Brady Quinn), and start developing for the future. Right now they are a team that lacks direction and any chance of contending for the North. The Bengals are very similar to the Browns in their ineptness. Palmer is back, but this isn’t the same team he led to the playoffs a few years ago. There is some reason to hope for a better future, but not much hope for this season.

AFC South:

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. Tennessee Titans

3. Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts may have lost their all-time leading receiver, but Manning shouldn’t have any problems finding someone to throw to with Wayne, Clark and Gonzalez all still there. Adding Donald Brown at running back to go along with Addai, should give the Colts a more balanced offense. I think that while the Titans will compete for a wild card spot, they are going to come up just short this season. They have one of the best running games in the league, but I can’t see Kerry Collins putting up another year like the one he had last season. The Titans needed to add more play makers at wideout and I don’t think Nate Washington will be enough of an addition (I’m not a Kenny Britt fan and I think he could end up being a bust). On defense Haynesworth left some big shoes that so far remain unfilled. While they will still be a good defense, I doubt they will be as dominate. The Titans defensive backfield also remains an area of concern, without any true bona fide star. The Texans are a team on the rise, and could surpass Tennesse this year. If Schaub can stay healthy and Slaton and Andre Johnson play like they can, Houston will be tough to beat and will surprise some teams this year. Their defense gets better every year, and could end up being the best in this division. I think it will be a rough year in Jacksonville, they have some offensive talent in Jones-Drew and Holt, but until Garrard shows consistency this team will be in trouble. Their offensive line should be much improved, but their is still some concern at guard. On defense the Jags have so much talent, but haven’t lived up to their high expectations. I don’t see them finishing better than 7-9 unless Garrard proves he’s an NFL starting quarterback.

AFC West:

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Denver Broncos

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Oakland Raiders

This is by far the worst division in the NFL. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos could all end up drafting in the top 5 next April (which is pretty bad for Denver since they traded that pick to the Seahawks). The Raiders have major questions at just about every position except running back and corner back. This team lacks all direction and I think it will be tough for them to win more than 3-4 games (and don’t be shocked if those are against other division opponents). The Chiefs have a lot of work to do, their ‘Fanchise’ QB is injured (and ineffective when he was playing), their offensive line is pretty awful, and their running back situation is murky at best. They do have some talent at running back in Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles, but they were horribly inconsistent last season and will need to improve this year. They do have one star in WR Dewayne Bowe, but without a second receiving option his numbers will likely decline. Kansas City’s defense isn’t in much better shape than their offense. They have a few guys with potential, but the reality is they are going to be running a 3-4 defense with 4-3 personell. Denver is another team with their own host of issues. Their best player (Brandon Marshall) is suspended and doesn’t want to play for them.  They took a page out of the Chiefs playbook and changed their defense to a 3-4 without the players to do so.  And they have a rookie coach who is in way over his head. The Broncos offense this year could be anemic. Without Marshall and Cutler, Denver’s big play ability has taken a hit. While I like Orton and think he can lead the troops, right now the Broncos resemble F Troop more than an actual military machine. Their offensive line is weak in the interior and outside of Eddie Royal there isn’t a good play maker on offense. Knowshon Moreno has some talent, but I don’t know if he’s the answer for Denver. On defense the Broncos do have some hope, especially with Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins in the secondary. Their front seven is weak outside of Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams. The Chargers should run away with this division, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they are 6-0 against the rest of the West. The Chargers have a ton of talent on offense, and will have no trouble scoring points all season. Their defense still has a few question marks, but on paper they are a team capable of challenging for a Super Bowl berth.

Offensive Player of the year: QB Peyton Manning. Even without Harrison its hard to bet against Manning. He is poised to shatter just about every passing record in the books. He should have a big year this season, now with the added depth at running back. Runners up: Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew

Defensive Player of the year: DE Mario Williams. There are a number of obvious candidates, but Williams has gotten better every year and I think this year he proves once and for all that he was the best player in the 2006 draft. Runners up: Ed Reed, LaMarr Woodley, Troy Polamalu

Offensive Rookie of the year: OT Michael Oher. Its not a sexy pick, but I don’t think another offensive player will have the impact that Oher will have for the Ravens. He should shore up their line and will likely be a part of every play during their Super Bowl push, how many other rookies can say that. Runners up: Donald Brown, Mark Sanchez

Defensive Rookie of the year: DT Fili Moala. The Colts last year had talent at defensive end, linebacker, corner back and safety, the one thing they lacked was a run-stopping, offensive lineman occupying defensive tackle. They might have found exactly that in 2nd round pick Moala. He’s not going to get double digit sacks or be voted to the Pro Bowl, but he fills the Colts biggest need. Runners up: Larry English, Brian Cushing, Conner Barwin