Nnamdi Asomugha Declared A Free Agent: Asomugha along with Darrell Revis is a true shutdown corner in this league, and with him on the open market I believe a number of teams will be calling. Not only did Asomugha’s contract void, but it also ensured that the Raiders couldn’t place either their Franchise or Transition tags on him, allowing him complete control of choosing his next destination. Asomugha at times gets overlooked by fans as an elite quarterback because he doesn’t get interceptions. In fact over the last four seasons he has just three interceptions, including zero this season. His lack of picks has nothing to do with not having good hands, but rather the fact teams just won’t throw against him. He was only targeted 33 times this past season, with only 13 of those being complete. He is the type of corner that will take away an entire side of the field or a team’s elite receiver. Asomugha should be the top free agent available and in all likelihood will sign a record deal.

Cardinals Looking To Extend Larry Fitzgerald: With just one year remaining on his contract the Arizona Cardinals are looking to lock up their star receiver before he gets anywhere close to the open market. Fitzgerald also has an agreement with the team not to Franchise him if he makes it to free agency, giving the Cardinals extra incentive to resign him. Fitzgerald is one of the elite receivers in this league, and posted his 5th career 1,000 yard season, despite the Cardinals having a revolving door at the quarterback position. Three different players lined up behind center this year for the Cardinals, including two rookies and yet it didn’t faze Fitzgerald. Now while his numbers didn’t falter, it was clear that Fitzgerald was frustrated this season with the poor quarterback/ overall team play. I would expect that the Cardinals are sharing with him their vision this offseason, one that I assume involves adding another quarterback, wide receivers and offensive linemen. Arizona was unprepared this season, and I just don’t see Fitzgerald signing on the dotted line unless they show a commitment to improving the team. Given his extensive value, if the Cardinals can’t workout an extension, I would imagine they would look to trade Fitzgerald now when they can get a first round pick for him, instead of waiting until the season starts when they’d be forced to settle for a 2012 pick. It would be hard to swallow, trading their star player but they just can’t afford to let him walk without getting anything in return.

Bengals Bring Back Marvin Lewis: This is probably the biggest surprise among coaching hiring and firing since the season ended, considering that Lewis didn’t have a contract and the Bengals could simply move on to another option. While I like Lewis as a coach, I don’t think he is who they want to rebuild this team, which is exactly what needs to be done. They should have added a fresh face to the mix to reshape this roster from the bottom up. Also, from the team perspective the Bengals need to handle their personnel decisions better and put more resources into their team. Cincinnati is making a commitment to Lewis so I hope for their sake they are also making a commitment to the actual team. This could be an odd year for the Bengals as they could explore parting ways with Carson Palmer, though Lewis’ re-signing makes that less likely.

Raiders Move On From Cable: While the Raiders had their best season in years, it is no shock that Tom Cable is out of a job. Much of the credit for the Raiders offensive breakout goes to offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who is being approached by other teams for their head coaching vacancies. I believe that the Raiders made this move to retain Jackson and install him as their head coach. If that works out, then I think they made a great move. Cable not only struggled some as a coach, but he had his share of off the field issues that didn’t do anything to help the Raiders negative P.R. Jackson brings to the table a very good offensive mind, one that is capable of shaping the Raiders into a powerhouse. His work is cut out for him since he doesn’t have a 1st round pick, but I can see Jackson staying around to finish what he started with the Raiders.

49ers Tap Trent Baalke As Their G.M.: Baalke was a smart decision, since he had basically been running things most of this season, including negotiating contract extensions with a couple of their top players. He has a well-rounded background in coaching, scouting and contracts, and is seen pretty favorably around the league. Although the 49ers were perhaps the League’s most disappointing team last year, they still have plenty of championship caliber talent on their roster. I think by retaining from within, it will ensure that there isn’t a massive overhaul on this team and they can keep their quality young players together. Baalke’s hiring also could benefit the 49ers in another way as he is known to have close ties with Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh sits atop every team’s wish list, and his ties with Baalke could push the 49ers to the top. If Baalke can close the deal on Harbaugh, the 49ers could be in line for an immediate turnaround.

Revis Island Will Be Uninhabited On Sunday: The Jets won a crucial divisional matchup last week against the Patriots, but lost All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis to a hamstring injury. While the injury isn’t likely a long term problem, it will keep Revis out of action this week against the Miami Dolphins and star receiver Brandon Marshall. New York is smart for not playing Revis this week, even if it does potentially hurt their chances of winning another tough divisional game. If Revis plays he has a big chance of doing further damage to the injury, keeping him out for much longer than one game. The Jets defense can survive without Revis for one game (even against Marshall) but I don’t think they could last a month or more.

Steelers Go With Batch Sunday Against Buccaneers: Boy Leftwich must still be pretty injured if they are going with Charlie Batch to start this week. While technically he was just ‘resigned’ this week, he was only not a Steeler for about 30 Hrs. I’m guessing he didn’t forget the playbook in that time period. Not only is Leftwich the more talented quarterback with better physical tools and starting experience, but up until three and a half weeks ago, when he got injured, he was getting all the starters work in practice. Batch barely played this preseason or got many reps in practice until Leftwich went down. And it is not as though Batch set the world a blaze with his performance last Sunday against the Titans. In addition to all of that Leftwich was traded by the Buccaneers this offseason to the Steelers, so I’m sure he would have loved a little payback and the chance to show them they were wrong to give up on him. Since Batch will be the man under center for the Steelers this Sunday, I’d expect a healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall and the rest of the ground attack. Also, I’d expect a lot of short passes as the Steelers attempt to grind out their third win of the season.

Raiders Had Campbell On A Short Leash, Go With Gradkowski: It is a bit surprising the Raiders didn’t give Jason Campbell more time to figure it out, or at least one more chance to redeem himself, but it is hard to argue with Gradkowski’s numbers and result. Gradkowski came in for Campbell in relief on Sunday and led the Raiders to victory over the Rams. Now he is tabbed as the starting quarterback. While Campbell’s numbers were less than impressive, much of that comes from his week 1 beating against the Tennessee Titans. A defense that sacked him four times, and constantly had him under pressure. The move is surprising, not because the Raiders gave up alot for Campbell, but that Campbell had been building on a pretty solid career up until this season. Now the Raiders have a new man under center and Campbell is left on the bench. My guess is it won’t be a short stay on the bench for Campbell though. While there is always a chance that Gradkowski is ineffective or injured, I’m thinking a trade could be on the way. Looking around the league, there are a number of weak quarterback situations that Campbell could step in as a starter right away. In addition there are a few other situations where he would be either a solid back up or a stop gap situation while a young QB develops. The Seahawks, Bills, Browns and Cardinals could all use an immediate upgrade at quarterback, while the Chiefs, 49ers, Jaguars, Panthers and Vikings could all use a little insurance. Remember Campbell is signed for just $3.14 million this season (with the Raiders obviously already paying some of that) and just $4.5 million next year. That is pretty affordable (though on the pricier side) for a backup on a team with an established quarterback. And is a great price if he actually starts on these teams. Campbell is a very good buy low option, and shouldn’t cost more than the 4th round pick in 2012 that the Raiders gave up (though honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if Oakland could do better).

JaMarcus Russell is a fascinating case study, not only in what you shouldn’t do as a team, but also what you shouldn’t do as a player. Russell will go down as one of the biggest busts in NFL history, not only for being so completely overvalued, but also for his personal decisions that kept him from developing. Russell’s case shows exactly what teams and players shouldn’t do if they want success in the NFL.

For as much as we can malign the Raiders for their draft strategy and ‘overdrafting’ Russell, we need to remember that Russell was considered a top 5 talent by a number of analysts. And while few people may have had him number 1 overall, it wasn’t a huge of a reach as most people think. Looking back though, we think the Raiders were out of their mind selecting Russell first overall. But at the time, that backlash didn’t occur. In fact, I would say more people blasted the Dolphins for passing on Brady Quinn (not that Ted Ginn turned out to be worth the 9th pick), than did for the Raiders drafting Russell with the top spot. At the time it made some sense to draft Russell, but in reality what were people thinking? Russell displayed just about every warning sign possible; he was a (redshirt) junior quarterback, coming off only one big season, his bowl game propelled him over Quinn as the top QB (and a top player), and he had good combine and workout numbers, and was considered better than he was given his athleticism, size, and arm strength. Let’s look at those factors one at a time and see why they are so important.

While being a redshirt junior is better than Russell being just a three year junior, it is pretty telling that most (not all) successful quarterbacks are 4 or 5 year seniors. Also they have 3-4 years of full starting experience under their belt (Russell had just two and a half). Russell was never considered a very cerebral passer and in fact completed just 50% of his passes his redshirt freshman year.

That leads into the next big warning sign; him being a one year wonder. Russell’s first ‘year’ as a starter, he actually split time with another quarterback. While LSU probably wanted Russell to win the job outright, his numbers didn’t warrant him being the everydown starter. His sophomore year Russell fared better, but put up just average numbers. It wasn’t until his junior year where teams really took notice of him. And Russell did have an impressive year, but what people didn’t realize is he was surrounded by NFL talent, which helped hide some deficiencies in his game. By only evaluating just that one good year of film, NFL teams ignored the majority of his career where he was between awful-average, not exactly what you are looking for in a top overall pick.

Russell saved one of his best games for last as he led LSU to a Sugar Bowl victory, by throwing for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for another. What made his Sugar Bowl victory even more important was the fact that LSU beat Notre Dame and Brady Quinn in that game. Not only did Russell knock off Quinn in that game, but he also began to knock him off some draft boards as well. If one wants to look for the biggest reason why Russell’s stock was so high, that Sugar Bowl game is the place to start. Drafting a player based on a Bowl Game is a very risky strategy, yet it is done all the time. The “what have you done for me lately” mentality is still dominate in draft war rooms.

The other thing draft war rooms like are the workout and combine numbers. Could there be less important factors for a quarterback than his workout numbers? Sure you want to see a little foot speed or explosion in his jumps demonstrating lower body strength, but these shouldn’t be the end-all be-all for a quarterback. Even in the throwing drills how much can you really learn about a quarterback. So what if he can ‘make all the throws’ without pads, a pass rush, or a defender covering his target. Workouts are extremely perfunctory for quarterbacks as all they can show is the arm works. Anyone can throw the ball in the scripted workouts to receivers they have worked with for years. The true test of a quarterback is in the game. This also comes into play with the idea that a quarterback has the ‘ideal size’ or ‘great arm strength’. Sure those things are important, but there is a huge difference between throwing a ball 70 yards and completing a ball 70 yards. Arm strength is great, but completing the ball and advancing downfield are a lot better. And what does ‘ideal size’ mean, successful QB’s come in all shapes and sizes to give credit to a weaker quarterback just because he has ‘ideal size’ isn’t going to make him a better player. Yes, I understand big quarterbacks have more success, but if a quarterback gets the job done does it really matter what size he is? While I think workout numbers and size questions for other positions are important, since they can tell plenty of things about potential, they have little impact on the success of a QB.

All of these factors came together in a perfect storm to create the hype and buzz that Russell received leading up to the draft, and allowed him to go 1st overall. This shows the inherent risk of allowing the myth dictate his draft status and not the game experience. Russell may have been unready for the NFL and over-hyped, but he still shouldn’t have failed so miserably. Russell should have had some sort of NFL future. He did have the physical tools, and impressive arm strength. Not to mention the fact that he did show vast improvement from the beginning of his college career, showing that he could develop. For once I think the Raiders are mostly not to blame for the lack of development of Russell. Oakland did a decent job of not rushing him, despite his top pick status, and they did try to add weapons around him (though not an offensive line). Russell has no one to blame but himself for his lack of development (aka why he is out of a job right now).

Russell’s problem started from day one, and was due to the fact that he held out, meaning day one for him was after the season already started. It is probably a pretty dumb move for any rookie to hold out (especially when one way or another you were going to be getting tens of millions of dollars), but even more so for a quarterback. While all positions on the field have a symbiotic relationship with one another, the quarterback position is tied the most closely with the rest of the offensive positions. A quarterback needs practice receiving the snap, just as they need to practice handing off the ball. And most importantly a quarterback has to be in tune with this receivers to have any hope of success. By holding out, Russell lost valuable practice time, working with these players and learning the playbook.  On top of gaining that rapport with his offensive teammates, he lost all that time reading NFL defenses in practice, which is the biggest hurdle young quarterbacks face. Also by not signing until after the season started, he missed the chance to play in all the preseason games, which would have proved invaluable. Maybe Russell ended up winning the battle over the contract he signed, but he lost the war, because he severely set himself back. And now 4 years later is out of a job and no closer to being an NFL ready quarterback. Russell also lost fan support by holding out, which helped cause his downfall in Oakland.

Russell compounded his rookie mistakes, by never becoming the leader that was expected of him or working out to make himself a better quarterback. Despite the hype that surrounded him, Russell never seemed to care to reach it. I guess he just assumed it would come natural to him, and he would become a great quarterback. But when you look around the league the best quarterbacks are the most competitive and work the hardest. Russell doesn’t display either quality and that is why he never got any better as a signal caller.

Russell legacy will be that he shows both player and team what not to do. For teams, don’t draft a quarterback based on hype and speculation. Draft them because they are deserving of that pick (especially a top pick). As for players, it is probably not worth holding out your rookie season since it can only set you back, and damage your relationship with the team and fans. Maybe squeezing out that extra million or two is nice then and there, but it doesn’t do you much good if you screw your career up.

Packers at Lions (+11):

The Packers should win this game easily, but the true question will be whether or not they can win by at least 12 points to cover the spread. I know the Lions put up some points last weekend against the Browns, but there are a couple of things to remember; one, that was against the Browns, maybe the most anemic team in the NFL right now, two, Matt Stafford won’t be starting today, leaving the game in the trusted hands of Daunte Culpepper. Another reason why I don’t think the Lions can cover is, if they had so much trouble stopping Brady Quinn and the Browns, what will Aaron Rodgers do to them?  My pick:  I’ll take the Packers to cover the spread.

Raiders at Cowboys (-14):

Dallas should be able to win this game fairly easily. They are always dominate at home and usually play their best game on Thanksgiving. They will look to give their 100,000 faithful something to cheer about today, after nearly blowing the game last week against Washington. I’d expect them to try to get some quick scores, and then rely on their three pronged rushing attack to hold the lead. I know the Raiders were impressive against the Bengals, and Gradkowski breathed new life into the offense, but I don’t see them winning two weeks in a row. The week after surprising the Eagles, the Raiders got beat 38-0 by the Chargers. My pick:  I’ll take the Cowboys at home on Thanksgiving day, and they’ll win by three touchdowns.

Giants at Broncos (+6.5):

The Broncos are in the midst of a four game losing streak and seem to be in complete disarray right now. Their defense can’t stop anyone, and has been completely exposed against the run. The Chargers and Redskins ran all over the Broncos these last two weeks, and those aren’t exactly the best ground units (or offensive lines) in the NFL. This week the Broncos are going against one of the best rushing attacks, so things might get ugly fast in Denver. Bradshaw probably won’t play today, but Brandon Jacobs should be all the Giants need. And if New York does go through the air, I don’t think Denver can get enough pressure on Manning to keep him from torching them. My pick:  I know the Giants squeaked by in overtime last week, and lost their four previous games, but I think they right the ship today against the Broncos, and win by at least 10 points.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you enjoy the games!

Going into last night Monday Night Football seemed like it was going to be a snoozer, even with two games. Both match ups featured a Super Bowl contender (New England and San Diego), versus a lowly divisional opponent (Buffalo and Oakland). No one gave the Bills or Raiders any chance of pulling an upset, not the sports polls, not Vegas, and certainly not me. In fact Vegas even predicated that the Patriots and Chargers would each win their games by double digits. I guess no one told the Bills and Raiders they didn’t have a chance, because both the Pats and the Chargers both had to have 4th quarter comebacks in the last two minutes to overcome their divisional foes.

For 55 minutes last night Tom Brady looked like the quarterback who couldn’t secure a starting job at Michigan and lasted until the 6th round of the 2000 Draft. Brady’s throws were high and erratic, he couldn’t move around in the pocket, and he threw a costly interception that was returned for a touchdown by DE Aaron Schobel. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Brady that led the Patriots to 4 Super Bowl’s this decade returned for the last five minutes of the game. Brady connected with TE Ben Watson for a pair of touchdowns in the final two minutes to overcome the Bills 25-24. Brady may have never gotten the opportunity for the second trip into the endzone if Bills return man Leodis McKelvin hadn’t fumbled the kick-off (or if he had just kneeled down in the endzone for the touchback) with two minutes to go. The fumble gave the Patriots the ball on the Bills 30 with two minutes to go and the sure victory slipped away for good.

The late game was even more surprising last night as the Raiders not only hung with the Chargers, but led most of the way. The Raiders who have the worst record of any franchise since 2003 (including the the Lions) took San Diego to the limit last night. Every time the Chargers scored to tie the game or take a lead, the Raiders battled back and retook the lead. After Rivers drove down and threw a touchdown pass with 7 minutes to go it looked like the Chargers might hang on to win 17-13. The Chargers’ defense knocked QB JaMarcus Russell out of the game, and it looked like hope was lost. Things looked even bleaker when Russell returned a few plays later. The Raiders were facing a 4th and 15 from their own 43, with 2:40 remaining. The safe play would have been to punt it and hope that you can stop the Chargers from getting a first down. The smart play would have been to try for the first down, or even set up a screen pass to Darren McFadden. The Raiders elected for the bold play, and Russell executed a perfect 57 yard touchdown strike to rookie WR Louis Murphy. Now if only the game had ended there, the Russell and the Raiders would be the most talked about team all week. Unfortunately Phillip Rivers got his hands on the ball again and he drove the Chargers 90 yards for the game winning touchdown by Darren Sproles.

In the end the Patriots and Chargers came away with a win, and now sit atop their respective divisions like everyone expected. Although their record remains untarnished, their reputation is not. No one who watched last night’s games believed that these two teams are the teams to beat in the AFC. If the Patriots and Chargers want to contend for the Super Bowl, they will need to start playing like it, as their luck won’t last forever.