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Phils Clinch Out West

October 13, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Well at least the Phillies gave us some drama in an otherwise boring first round of the playoffs. For the first time since 2001 neither wild card team advanced to the 2nd round of the playoffs. And while all four series had at least one game that was decided in the final innings, the Phillies-Rockies series had three games that went down to the wire. Giving baseball fans something fun to watch, and Philadelphia fans something to give them an ulcer.

The good news for for the Philly faithful, is that their troubled bullpen held firm in the close games down the stretch. Giving up a total of two runs in the 7th-9th innings. And their much beleagured closer Brad Lidge, who was awful during the season, had a very good series, collecting saves in games three and four.

Now if a starter not named Cliff Lee (how brillant is that deadline deal looking now for the Phils) can throw a quality start for Philadelphia, the Dodgers could be in some trouble in the NLCS. Lee has been brillant in the Phillies first and last win against the Rockies. The Phillies lineup is tough, they have a solid bench, and now their bullpen is showing why they won the World Series last season. Now Cole Hamels, AJ Happ, and Pedro Martinez need to step up and follow Lee’s lead. Its unfair to lump Martinez in here since he didn’t pitch in this series, but he’ll be counted on against his original team (bet the Dodgers wish they could have that trade back). Whatever happens it should be an entertaining series to watch, and more exciting than some of the first round snoozers.

Baseball Playoffs:

October 12, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Three-fourths of of the two Championship series are already set, and the fourth could be determined today if the Phillies can knock off the Rockies. The World Champion Phillies have the distinction (if they make it to the second round) of being the only team not to sweep their divisional series, as both LA teams and the Yankees advanced quickly to the next round. I don’t think you can chalk it up to a major talent disparity, as the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees were not that much better than their opponents. I think that may be why the Yanks swept, but not the other two series. I think what we saw in these matchups was the importance of momentum. Its something that we always hear about in sports, but one of the hardest things to quantify. But three playoff sweeps are the perfect example for how momentum can kill you.

Now to be fair, the better team, and the team with home field advantage came out ahead in every series. With the exception of the Yankees-Twins matchup, no one really thought these games would would go by so quickly. The Dodgers were the better team, but the Cards had some mega talent on their roster. It was a series that could go either way, and would likely go the full five games. It lasted just three games, because in game two with the Cardinals in perfect position to even up the series 1-1 before heading back to St. Louis, OF Matt Holliday made a critical error that allowed the Dodgers to come back to win the game. The Cards had no chance in Game 3 at home, after literally watching the series slip through their (Holliday’s) hands.

The Red Sox vs. Angels series was another one where the Angels had the advantages on paper, but the Red Sox were favored given their vaunted lineup, vast playoff experience, and the Fenway Faithful giving the Sox a huge advantage in games three and four. Well the Angels shut down the the Sox lineup in the first two games, holding them to just eight hits, including only two extra base hits (neither of which was a home run). Up 2-0 in the series the Angels took away another advantage the Red Sox had by ensuring the series had to come back to Anaheim if Boston hoped to win it. If the Red Sox went back to Boston tied 1-1, their home field advantage for games three and four could have given them the momentum to win the series. Instead being down 2-0 left them in a hole they couldn’t dig themselves out of. The Red Sox did hit a little better (seven hits, two extra base hits, including a home run) scoring six runs, compared to the single run they managed in the first two games. That extra offense wasn’t enough as the bullpen got touched up for five runs in the final two innings. In watching the game you just see that despite being down by three runs entering the 8th inning, the Angels showed no sign of panic. They knew they could win that game and finish the series right there in Boston.

Now the least surprising sweep was by far the Yankees over the Twins. Minnesota was coming off a 12 inning game to just get into the playoffs, and were a team without their second best hitter and their best pitcher. They had just about no chance to knock off the Yankees and all their top baseball talent. And even though it was one of the worst calls I’ve ever seen in game (especially with the ump down the line) the Joe Mauer foul call in Game 2 did not change the outcome of the series (though probably changed the outcome of the game). Even if the Twins win that game, they would have been overmatched and unable to win two of the last three games. I maybe could have seen them winning one more at home, but even that was a stretch. The biggest thing with that call was that it visibly took the wind out of the Twins sails, in that game (bases loaded no outs and you can’t get a run) and yesterday at home (4-1 loss).

In all three matchups we saw the importance of grabbing that important 2-0 series lead, before you head out on the road. Hopefully from a baseball fan’s perspective, the Championship round and the World Series are a bit more exciting than the first round has been (Sorry Rockies fans I don’t see them overcoming the Phillies). Baseball could use some good drama in October, especially since all we have left are the big market teams.

Playoff Update:

October 9, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Though only two days into the postseason, we’ve already had our share of surprises. In the American League, both series have only gone one game, and while the Yankees first game went as expected, the Red Sox performance last night raised some eyebrows. If the Yankees had not crushed the Twins on Wednesday evening it would have been a major disappointment. Regardless of the fact that the Yankees are the better team to begin with, Minnesota was coming off their one game extra inning playoff with the Tigers the night before, on top of that it was CC Sabathia facing off against Brian Duensing. The Yankees are right where they should be in this postseason, their AL East counterparts on the other hand are not. The Boston Red Sox got blanked by the Anaheim Angels 5-0. Now a John Lackey-John Lester matchup in LA is one that favors the Angels, so its not surprising that they won. What is surprising is the score, or lack there of by the Red Sox. In six postseason games this year, the Red Sox are the only team not to score. Boston is not a team that can win 2-1 or 3-2 games this postseason, their pitching is no better than solid and their defense is suspect. They are built to out hit their opponent, except it didn’t show last night when they only managed four hits (all singles). If the Boston bats don’t awaken soon then Anaheim will cruise to the second round.

In the National League each series has gone two games and each has had its own surprises. The Dodgers are up 2-0 and look to go for the sweep Saturday evening in St. Louis. Look I like the Dodgers as much as anyone, and have been among their biggest supporters of their postseason aspirations, but not even I thought they were going to be up 2-0. The Cardinals were a number of analysts’ World Series pick from the NL, and seemed destined to steal a game in LA with Carpenter and Wainwright pitching the first two games. The fact that the Dodgers already beat the two best pitchers in the entire NL playoffs (Wainwright didn’t get the loss, as Matt Holliday the bullpen blew last nights game), bodes well for the rest of the October in LA. Now the Cards are reeling, even if they can win game 3 they will need to rely on John Smoltz or Kyle Loshe in a deciding Game 4…ouch. Theoretically they could bring Chris Carpenter back on short rest, but he didn’t look sharp in Game 1 (105 pitches in five innings, giving up four runs on nine hits) on regular rest I’m not sure how he’ll respond when he’s less fresh. Wainwright was lights out, but he isn’t going on two days rest for Game 4 if they get there (though don’t be surprised to see him come in out of the bullpen if its close). The other NL series is just as surprising. The World Champion Phillies were the team I thought that would be up 2-0 in their series over the Rockies. Instead the Rockies touched up ace Cole Hamels for seven hits and four runs in five innings yesterday to even the series up 1-1. Now I thought the Rockies would win at least one game in this series, but I thought it would be in Colorado, and not against Hamels. The Phillies needed to jump out to a series lead before the games went back to Colorado given the precarious state of their bullpen. Now the pressure is on the Phillies to win on the road to keep their hope for a repeat title alive.

So what do you guys think, have the early returns changed anyone’s postseason predictions?

Baseball Roundup:

October 1, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

World Champs Clinch the East:  The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the N.L. East for the third year in a row last night with the Braves losing to the Marlins 5-4 (not to mention the Phils trouncing the Astros 10-3). The win takes some pressure off the Phillies and allows them to rest up some as they wait to see who their opponent will be in the first round (likely the Rockies). While it wasn’t his best outing last night, how much did the signing of Pedro Martinez pay off for Philadelphia? He’s 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in nine starts. Not only have his numbers been impressive, but the team is 8-1 in his starts, helping the Phils be where they are right now. If their bullpen can come together and start pitching big this October, Philadelphia could be in line for a repeat.

Indians Fire Wedge, Sort of:  The Indians announced at a press conference yesterday that Manager Eric Wedge and his staff were fired, but would finish out the season. This is one of the few times where an employee (or in this case employee’s) get two weeks notice from their employer. Was it really necessary to have a press conference to announce, what pretty much everyone in baseball already knew? No one thought that Wedge was going to be retained after the year he had. The Indians came into this year with legitimate playoff and World Series hopes, and are ending it with a bottom five finish. I don’t understand why you couldn’t just wait a week to have the press conference the day after the season is over. That seems to send a bit of a mix message to the players. At least the Indians didn’t pull an “Astros” and try to hire an “interim” manager for a handful of games. At this point you need to let Wedge manage out the rest of the season. Anything else would have been cheap and petty. Though the Indians P.R. department could probably use some lessons in decorum.

Tigers and Rockies pull away:  The Tigers and Rockies each picked up a game yesterday in their respective playoff races. The Rockies win over the Brewers yesterday, coupled with the Braves loss (Atlanta shot themselves in the foot all around yesterday) left the Rockies magic number at 1. Any Colorado win or Atlanta loss will clinch a playoff berth for the Rockies. Colorado still has an outside shot of winning the N.L. West and actually control their own destiny. They finish up with a three game series against the Dodgers, if they sweep the ‘boys in blue’, the Rockies will win the West. The Tigers did double damage yesterday with their win over the Twins, giving themselves a three game lead over Minnesota. With Detroit’s magic number now at 2, the Tigers can clinch the division today with another win over the Twins. If not things get a bit dicey as the Twins finish up with the Royals, while the Tigers have three remaining games against the White Sox. I’d look for Detroit to close it out at home today.

“Brave New World”

September 24, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Yesterday was quite a shock for Atlanta Brave fans as their long time manager Bobby Cox announced that he will retire after the 2010 season. Cox who has managed for 28 years, (24 with the Braves, 20 of which have come in his current stint) will go down as one of the greatest managers of all time and a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer. From 1991-2005 the Braves “finished” worse than 1st just one time, the strike-shortened season of 1994 (which didn’t have a postseason). He led Atlanta to 14 playoff appearances, five National League Pennants, and one World Series title (1995).

Some people try to discredit Cox because of his lone World Series title, compared to contemporaries like Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, and Terry Francona who all have multiple rings. Winning one world series shouldn’t be considered a negative mark against Cox, only 68 managers have ever won a WS, and of those only 24 have won two or more, and just 8 men have won as many as three. Cox’s 15 career (one during his time with the Blue Jays) playoff appearances, are the highest all-time. While that might not be the fairest of comparisons since, obviously there weren’t always playoffs, and with the advent of the divisional era, and now the Wild Card its easier to make the postseason, it still carries a lot of merit. No Bobby Cox team ever made the playoffs from the Wild Card, and in 10 of Cox’s 15 playoff seasons his team had the league’s best record. So not only would Cox have made the postseason he would have won the pennant if not for the divisional system. Cox’s five pennants (which tie him for 8th all-time, with LaRussa, and Torre among others) would double to 10 which would place him second to John McGraw in career pennants.

Cox will go down as a great manager, but I think the case could be made that he is the greatest in the last 50 years. Players came and went from Atlanta, but Bobby Cox kept them winning and contending year in year out. Now the Braves will begin there search for his replacement, and if they can find someone who can be 1/4 as successful as Cox they will have found a very talented manager. I hope that Cox gets one more shot at World Series glory next season during his swan song. Regardless, baseball will lose a legend in 2010, as no one will ever come close to the 14 straight division titles that Cox gave Atlanta.

Expanding the Playoffs?

September 23, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Peter Gammons of ESPN had an interesting take today when he suggested expanding the number of teams that make the playoffs in baseball. His idea is one that hopefully gains some traction, because it is long overdue. Gammons suggests that they have a second Wild Card team and there is a three game “play-in” series in each league. I think it is highly intriguing, but say why stop there, and why limit it to a three game series?

The fact that only four teams in each league make the postseason is ridiculous (while we are at it can we expand by two teams so both leagues are even, and go to 4 divisions like the NFL). The NBA and NHL both have 30 teams like baseball and they have 16 teams make the playoffs, they also have ‘best of series’ showing its possible for baseball to expand as well. Now 8 teams per league would be too much, but going to an NFL format, where six teams (per league) make it and the top two division leaders get a bye in round one, makes a lot of sense. I would like to see the battle for three Wild Card spots (two if they did move to four 4-team divisions per league, but I shouldn’t get too greedy) opposed to what we have this year, when the playoffs are predetermined with 10 days to go (with the exception of the AL Central).

When you think about it an MLB season is twice as long as the NHL’s or NBA’s (in games played), and 10 times as long as the NFL, yet 22 teams don’t have a chance to win the World Series. I think we should expand the number of teams, not just to benefit the fans interest in the waning months of the season, or to help small market teams compete, but to add another incentive for teams to compete all they way to the end. Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers might have acquired talent at the trade deadline this year, if their playoff chances were that much better. Its not just small to mid-market teams that would change their strategy, look at the New York Mets, their season went off the tracks early with a number of big injuries. By the time the trade deadline rolled around the Phillies were entrenched in first, which left the Mets competing with about 7 other teams for the NL’s one Wild Card spot. They decided, and rightly so, that with little chance of making the playoffs they would essentially ’punt’ on the rest of the season, and not give up any prospects in trades. Now if their post season chances were higher, they might have made some moves and been in the chase. The one detractor that most people say is that by extending the post season, baseball will go on until mid-November. I don’t think that has to be true, and with a few simple changes the problem can be solved. First I think you do what Gammons suggested and start the season half a week earlier. Next you eliminate at least two of the off days that teams get in April. Then you eliminate some of the off days that are already built into the playoff schedule. Right now there is only one ‘travel’ day built into the World Series, yet there are 3-4 built into the Divisional and Championship Series. Eliminate those and you have plenty of time for an extra round of playoffs. Which among other reasons to sell owners on expanding, will add millions of dollars in national television and radio money, to all baseball teams, not just the 12 in the playoffs.