Colts Heading to the Big Game:

Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets have been the underdog team throughout this year’s postseason. Now their road to the Super Bowl goes through (ends) in the place where in many ways it started. After a tough Week 15 loss to the Falcons, the Jets playoff hopes were all but over. They had to win their next game, which just so happened to be at Indianapolis. At the time the Colts were 14-0, and seemed likely to keep up the intensity for at least one more week (at least that is what I believed building my fantasy roster that week). Instead with a 5-point lead in the 3rd quarter, the Colts pulled their starters, and the Jets responded, winning 29-15.

That victory propelled the Jets on their unbelievable playoff run (pretty sure the Bengals and Chargers have taken the Colts off their Christmas card list) that will now come full circle. The Jets have won with defense, running the ball, and a little bit of luck, and will need all three factors in place today if they hope to overcome their playoff benefactor. This time though the Jets will have to contain Peyton Manning and company for 60 minutes, and that is a task that no one has been able to accomplish this season.

The Jets defense is great and one of the best we’ve seen, but so is the Manning and the Colts offense. New York will get after Manning and try to disrupt his timing, but he is so smart back there I don’t think they have a chance. While Darrelle Revis will probably take away Reggie Wayne for most of the game, the Colts have too many other weapons. In fact the best defense against the Colts scoring attack is the Jets own offense.

As long as the Jets offense is on the field, Manning is not and their defense can stay rested. Time of possession usually is something that is unimportant to the Colts (they won a game earlier this season with having the ball less than 15 minutes), but against the Jets that could be an exception. The Jets defense is good enough to slow down Colts to the point where they will need all the possessions they can get. The problem with the Jets is their offense won’t be able to control the clock, with long time consuming drives. While they are an excellent running team, they lack the passing attack to be complete. So far they’ve relied on big break-away runs, which are nice and worth 6 points like any touchdown, but not the sustained drives that they need. Putting up points is always good, but taking minutes off the clock is just as important.

In the end Manning will be too much for the Jets defense to handle. And while the Jets’ ground game may find some success, their lack of a passing attack will end up being the key today. Colts win 21-10 and begin packing for Miami.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet:

The New Orleans Saints Will Earn their First Super Bowl Birth:

The Minnesota Vikings have not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976, and the New Orleans Saints have not sniffed the Super Bowl in their franchise’s history. In 2007 the Saints played in their first NFC Championship – a game in which the Chicago Bears handled them with ease by the score of 39-14. In short, both franchises are overdue for a Super Bowl appearance. Unfortunately, one team has to be sent home on Sunday.

The Saints have been the team to beat over the course of the regular season, and they are the top playoff seed. Drew Brees has led one of the most prolific offenses in football, and the fast-paced aerial attack will be a different animal for the Vikings’ defense. Brees has been connecting with an assortment of talented receivers this season, and Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. Along with their production, Reggie Bush has been a major spark on both offense and special teams, and last week against the Cardinals, Bush looked dominant with 217 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Bush is the quintessential X-factor for the Saints.

The Vikings are coming off a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys. In their 34-3 win, they proved that not only can they beat a good team, but they can dominate a good team on both sides of the ball. Their defense shut down a stellar offense, and Brett Favre led the Vikings down the field with ease against what looked like the best defense in the playoffs. The Vikings stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they bounced back resoundingly.

The Saints and Vikings are clearly the two best teams in the NFC, and Sunday’s match-up will be a narrowly decided game. The key to Minnesota winning comes down to how much pressure they can get on Brees. Last week, Jared Allen led the defensive line with an unyielding amount of pressure on Tony Romo, and if he can replicate his performance against the Saints, the Vikings will win. The Saints, though, have a better offensive line, and Brees delivers the ball much quicker than Romo, so it will be exponentially more difficult for the Vikings to shut down the Saints’ offense. Furthermore, Reggie Bush looked dominant last week, and when he is healthy, he adds yet another dimension to the Saints’ attack. Minnesota will not find the same success on defense this week, and the Saints will win at home for their first Super Bowl birth. Final Score: New Orleans 33 Minnesota 28.

Three blowouts and one great game if you like offense, that is all you need to know to summarize this weekend’s playoffs. Overall though I can’t complain, because every team I was rooting for won. A couple quick points I want to make about the games this weekend:

–For all the talk about this being a quarterback league and that you need a franchise quarterback to win the big games, defense and the run game were the difference in the first round. The four highest paid QB’s in the first round all are going home and of those matchups you can really only say that Romo was better than McNabb (and that is a pretty close comparison). Though Warner is a ‘franchise’ guy, and Flacco and Sanchez could one day be as well, none of them were the best quarterback on the field.

–Running game and defense were the difference in ALL the games.

While you wouldn’t think the Cards could play defense with the way they were torched by Rodgers, they made two big plays early, as well as the fumble return that won the game in overtime. They also put more consistent pressure on Rodgers than the Packers defense did on Warner. The Cards out gained the Packers on the ground 156-90. The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Patriots from start to finish, they forced four turnovers and had Brady completely confused. They won with just 34 yards through the air (Flacco had a 10.0 QB rating!), because they controlled the running game 234-64.

As for the Saturday games: The Cowboys forced four turnovers, and also chipped in with four sacks. They out gained the Eagles 198-54 on the ground. The Jets game is the one exception as they didn’t out rush the Bengals, both teams finished with 171 yards, but the Jets defense controlled that game from start to finish, with 3 sacks and forcing two turnovers. For the Bengals, running the ball is the only way they could move it (not good when they spent most of the game trailing) as Darrelle Revis absolutely shutdown Chad Ochocinco.

–Another interesting thing was of the three repeat matchups from week 17, only the Cardinals changed their fortune: We heard all week how you should take the results from week 17 with a grain of salt, because the playoffs are different, or they ran vanilla offenses, or that the Bengals, Eagles and Cards were resting their players, or that they weren’t trying because they had nothing to play for (even though the Eagles definitely did have something to play for). Despite all the talk and rhetoric all week, the exact same result happened when the Bengals and the Eagles got on the field this weekend (and the Bengals were now at home).

–The thing I love the most, is the four teams that were considered the “sleepers” or “dark horses” are now out of it: All year we heard about the Patriots being back this year, now that Brady was healthy New England was going to pick up where they left off in 2007. And the talk didn’t die down when they lost to the Colts or the Saints, or a few other games a ‘dominate’ team should have won. Instead it turned to how they would be a different team in the postseason, and a team that could go to the Super Bowl. In reality they weren’t a great team and got blown out yesterday (how hard is it to figure out the Raven’s offense: run right, run right, run left, run center, run right?).

The Bengals all season we heard how they were a new team with a ground game and defense to go along with Palmer and Ochocinco. Well the running game worked, but Palmer was off all day on Saturday. And what happened to that defense, not only did the Jets run over them, but they couldn’t figure out the Jets simple passing attack or get any pressure on Sanchez (has anyone ever seen two more simplistic offenses than the Ravens and Jets be successful in the playoffs??).

In the NFC, for a long time the Eagles became a favorite third option for all the analysts who didn’t want to pick a front runner. And Philly looked like an even better pick once the Vikings and Saints started struggling down the stretch. They looked anything but a Super Bowl contender on Saturday. The Packers became another favorite pick down the stretch, despite the fact questions about their O-line, pass defense and running game hadn’t been answered. All the talk of how they were a new team after the Cowboys game and that if they faced the Vikings and Favre again the outcome would be different is all for naught.

A couple of weeks ago it looked as though the Cowboys season maybe was over, they were 3-2, but their three wins were against the Buccaneers, Panthers and Chiefs (all winless at the time). The Cowboys needed overtime and a great play by Miles Austin to survive the Chiefs, and could have easily been 2-3 then. At that time the Giants were 5-0 and the Eagles were 3-1, and it looked as though the Cowboys chances for the East were slowly slipping away. Now four weeks later, the Cowboys are sitting atop the NFC East at 6-2 after beating the Eagles last night 20-16 in Philadelphia. Last night’s game was a good battle between the NFC East rivals, and really could have gone either way, but in the end the Cowboys came up big when it counted. In addition to the two interceptions of McNabb, the Cowboys defense came up huge on a 4th and 1 play at midfield in the 4th quarter. Five plays later the Dallas offense responded to the opportunity in a big way with a 49 yard touchdown strike to Miles Austin, to put the Cowboys up 20-13. The offense also came up big at the end of the game, when after an Eagles field goal, they got the ball back with 4:27 remaining. Dallas got a pair of crucial first downs, that allowed them to keep the ball out of McNabb’s hands, and run out the clock.

The Eagles have now fallen into 2nd place at 5-3 and are facing two straight road games in San Diego and in Chicago, that they will need to split to stay alive in the division. After losing yesterday to the Chargers, the Giants are now 5-4 and have a much needed bye week. When they get back in two weeks their schedule gets pretty tough, but at least they have most of their tough games at home the rest of the season. The Cowboys  have a real oppurtunity here. They now face the Packers in Green Bay, which looks like a tough game, but the Packers just lost to the Buccaneers yesterday and can’t stop a pass rush. Then they come home and face the Redskins, before their Thanksgiving game against the Raiders. After that their schedule gets pretty tough, but if they can sweep these next three games, then they are pretty well assured a playoff spot and will be vying for a first round bye in the playoffs. Four weeks ago you wouldn’t have thought it possible, but the Cowboys are in control of the East and are looking like one of the powerhouses in the NFC.

1. Indianapolis Colts- I don’t know if anyone can stop Peyton Manning right now. He is playing on a different level than anyone else.

2. Baltimore Ravens- Teams are moving the ball on the Ravens defense, but Baltimore’s offense is playing like one of the elite units in the league this year.

3. New York Giants- The Giants have already taken a two game lead in the division. If they weren’t so banged up with injuries they would be ranked #2.

4. New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees and the Saints are on fire on offense. So far their defense has held up, but they’ve only really be challenged once so far.

5. New York Jets- Mark Sanchez has played like a veteran so far, not like the 5th overall pick. The Jets defense has been unrelenting so far, and is among the top 5 in the league.

6. Minnesota Vikings- Favre still has some magic of old. Combine that with Peterson and a tough defense, and the Vikings are a legit contender.

7. New England Patriots- The Pats have played two bad games, but they looked good Sunday against Atl. If Brady and the Pats are back they will be dangerous for the rest of the season.

8. Cincinnati Bengals- The Bengals are one freak play away from being 3-0, Cincinnati and Palmer could be back in the playoff hunt this year.

9. Philadelphia Eagles- The Eagles have beaten up on a pair of weak teams, and lost to one contender. I wouldn’t be as concerned except I don’t know how long McNabb will be out/ineffective.

10. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons had a chance to prove they were an elite team Sunday, but they couldn’t keep up with the Pats. They need to play more fundamental football to prove they are a true contender.

11. Green Bay Packers- The Packers offense looks to be back this year, but they can’t afford to get beat like they did by the Bengals two weeks ago again.

12. Denver Broncos- The Broncos may be 3-0, but they beat the Bengals on a lucky play and then beat up on the hapless Raiders and Browns. Not sure if their talent matches their record.

13. San Diego Chargers- They squeaked by Oakland, then split a pair of home games with the Ravens and Dolphins. Until LT and the ground game come back I think the Chargers are in trouble. Also Merriman is banged up as well, leaving some questions on defense.

14. Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys haven’t really looked to comfortable at home these last two weeks (never a good sign), and the injuries in the backfield are piling up.

15. Chicago Bears- The Bears had an impressive win against the Steelers, but I don’t know if Cutler is going to lead this team to the playoffs.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers- The Steelers haven’t looked good since they lost Polumalu to an injury. Their running game and kicking game have been struggling as well. It could be a long road to repeat as champions in 2009.

17. San Francisco 49ers- The 49ers could easily be 3-0, but with Frank Gore now out for a couple weeks it could be a long October. The defense has been impressive, but Shaun Hill can’t win without a running game.

18. Arizona Cardinals- The Cards need to keep Warner upright, who has been hit more often than not. They haven’t established a running game yet either despite adding Beanie Wells.

19. Houston Texans- The Texans offense is clicking, but their defense is letting lesser offenses control the game.

20. Buffalo Bills- The Bills haven’t been able to close out games, though should get a boost with the return of Marshawn Lynch on offense.

21. Washington Redskins- The Skins have been playing down to their competition and its cost them dearly. They have the talent to compete, but haven’t shown it on the field. They will need to win their next 3 games to get back into contention.

22. Tennessee Titans- Tennessee may be 0-3, but they have been in every game and could just as easily be 3-0. They have a long way to get back into the playoff hunt, but the talent is there.

23. Seattle Seahawks- Seattle is hurting right now with Hasselbeck out, and two of there starting linebackers missing time as well. Their defense isn’t good enough to compete right now.

24. Detroit Lions- The Lions got their first win on Sunday, and showed an impressive defense and running game. If Stafford can eliminate the mistakes they can stay competitive in games.

25. Carolina Panters- Delhomme has been pretty bad so far, and its left the Panthers 0-3. This looks like a completely different team than the one that dominated the NFC in 2008, despite having almost the same starting 22.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jags got their first win on Sunday, but things look pretty bad in Jacksonville. Garrard isn’t a true NFL quarterback, and with the exception of Jones-Drew the Jaguars don’t have the supporting cast around him. Their pass defense has been their biggest weakness this year.

27. Oakland Raiders- The Raiders already beat the Chiefs, and were two minutes away from knocking off the Chargers as well. They are a bad team overall, but have some talent to catch a team by surprise.

28. Miami Dolphins- The Dolphins would have been a dangerous 0-3 team, if not for the injury to QB Chad Pennington. Backup Chad Henne can’t handle the Dolphins tough schedule.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- The Bucs are starting a brand new quarterback, right now anything could be better than the numbers Leftwich has put up.

30. Kansas City Chiefs- The fact that the Chiefs weren’t able to beat Oakland at home doesn’t bode well for the rest of their season.

31. Cleveland Browns- The Browns have no quarterback, running game or defense right now. Things can’t get much worse in Cleveland right now.

32. St. Louis Rams- At least the Rams have Steven Jackson to give their fans something to watch. Right now the Rams are in the lead for the Sam Bradford sweepstakes, which is fun and exciting in April, but depressing in October.

NFC East:

1. New York Giants

2. Philadelphia Eagles*

3. Washington Redskins

4. Dallas Cowboys

This could be the league’s toughest division (though the AFC and NFC Souths will have something to say about that), as all four teams are capable of challenging for a playoff spot. Right now the boys in blue seem to be the favorite to win the East. The Giants have one of the toughest defenses in the league led by their dominant front four. They have some questions at linebacker and in the defensive backfield, but they have some young players that might just answer those questions. On offense the Giants have one of the best offensive lines and the league’s best running game. I’d also expect rookie wide receiver Hakeem Nicks to step up early, and become a favorite target of Eli Manning. The Eagles still have one of the leagues better defenses, though they are not as elite as they once were. Donovan McNabb remains one of the best best quarterbacks in the league, and as long as he is behind center the Eagles remain a threat in the East. The Redskins added to a top 5 defense, by spending $100 million dollars on Albert Haynesworth and using their 1st round pick on Brian Orakpo. Washington’s front seven could be the best in the league, and good enough to force the Skins into the playoff picture. On offense Washington has a number of play makers, but questions along the offensive line and at quarterback hold this team back. The Dallas Cowboys could be opening the NFL’s newest and biggest (not to mention most expensive) stadium with a dud. On offense the Cowboys have three talented running backs and tight end Jason Witten, but unless they are going to run the Wishbone or T formation, Dallas could be in trouble. The Cowboys’ lack of a receiving corps is a major problem going into the season. On defense the Cowboys aren’t nearly as good as their NFC East counterparts, and that will likely earn them a spot in the cellar of the division.

NFC North:

1. Chicago Bears

2. Minnesota Vikings

3. Green Bay Packers

4. Detroit Lions

The NFC North is going back in time about 10 years, when the Lions, Packers, and Vikings all had high powered passing attacks (and the division was known as the NFC Central). Now even the Bears (oh my) are getting into the act, with the addition of strong-armed quarterback Jay Cutler. Chicago could use another receiver or two, but they have the talent on offense to do some damage in the NFC. The Bears defense is dominate like always, and should be enough to overcome the other talented teams in the North. The Vikings added their own gunslinger in Brett Favre this off season. Favre, along with new receiver Percy Harvin, should help balance out the Vikings offense led by stud running back Adrian Peterson. Minnesota features a stingy defense, especially against the run. The Packers defense should be improved this year, but this team will live and die by Aaron Rodgers throwing arm. Green Bay will need some improvements at running back and on the offensive line to really compete for a playoff spot. The good news for Detroit is they can only improve from their 0-16 record last season. While they made some solid moves this off season, I don’t think it will be enough to get them out of the basement in the North. Lions fans can look forward to rookie quarterback Matt Stafford playing pitch and catch with uber receiver Calvin Johnson, as something fun to watch.

NFC South:

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Carolina Panthers*

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The South is another tough division, but with Matt Ryan having a year of experience the Atlanta Falcons are the team to beat. Atlanta’s defense should be vastly improved, bolstered by a strong defensive draft. The Panthers rely on their ferocious defense to get turnovers and shorten the field, but they aren’t slouches on offense as well. Carolina has a great ground game, to go along with the NFL’s most explosive wideout, Steve Smith. If Jake Delhomme can shake off his implosion in the playoffs last season, the Panthers should be looking for some redemption come January. The Saints have one of the most prolific passing attacks with QB Drew Brees and a stable of quality receivers. Unfortunately until they add a number one tail back or a Top-10 defense they won’t vault ahead of the Falcons and Panthers in the standings. The Buccaneers should be better on offense this year, with additions like Leftwich, Winslow and Ward. I don’t think they are good enough to compete for the division (or the wild card) until they have either a feature back or a top quarterback. On defense Tampa Bay had a lot of turnover, but not for the good. Their defense lacks play makers that made the Buccaneers so fearsome in the past.

NFC West:

1. Arizona Cardinals

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. Seattle Seahawks

4. St. Louis Rams

Arizona is hoping that QB Kurt Warner has at least one more year left in the tank, as they hope to forego the runner-up curse that has plagued Super Bowl losers for years. Warner will have plenty of weapons to work with, including three 1,000 yard receivers. The Cardinals running game should improve with rookie “Beanie” Wells getting the majority of carries. Even without rookie WR Michael Crabtree who is still holding out, the 49ers are a team on the rise. They still have questions at quarterback, but other offensive weapons are emerging to go along with RB Frank Gore. Head Coach Mike Singletary brings a lot of fire to his team, that will be best displayed by his new improved defense. Seattle improved their receiving corps this off season, but questions remain at running back and along the offensive line. Also can QB Matt Hasselbeck rebound from 2008 and stay healthy is a question that needs answering. Their defense is improved this year, but big holes remain in their secondary that opponents will be able to exploit. The Rams are another team that is on the rise, but just doesn’t have the talent to compete this year. A strong draft class and some solid free agent signings should improve the Rams on both sides of the ball. While the team is improving, its hard to peg the Rams for more than 5 wins this season.

Offensive Player of the Year: RB Adrian Peterson. Peterson is the best player in the NFL right now. He is the perfect combination of size and speed that can take any play the distance. Runners up: WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Steve Smith, RB Matt Forte

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware. Ware gets after the quarterback as well as anyone who has ever played the game. What’s even more impressive is his level of production considering a weaker supporting cast than most other top defensive players. Runners up: DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Julius Peppers, LB Patrick Willis

Offensive Rookie of the Year: RB Chris “Beanie” Wells. No other rookie could have a bigger impact than if Wells can provide a ground threat to go along with Arizona’s aerial assault. Wells should have plenty of running room to rush for over 1,200 yards, since safeties will be forced to play off the line against the Cardinals. Runners up: WR Hakeem Nicks, RB LeSean McCoy, OT Jason Smith, WR Percy Harvin

Defensive Rookie of the Year: LB/DE Brian Orakpo. Orakpo will give the Redskins what they have lacked the last couple of years, a dominate pass rusher. He should have plenty of room to work with, since Haynesworth will clog up the middle. Orakpo has the talent to be among the leagues elite pass rushers, and he should show that from day one. Runners up: DT Peria Jerry, LB Clay Matthews, LB James Laurinaitis.