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Top NBA Rookies

March 27, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

The NBA has had a somewhat surprising cast of impact rookies this season with Blake Griffin and Hasheem Thabeet, the top two picks in last year’s draft, making no impact on the court. Griffin went down with a season ending injury, and Thabeet has been D-League fodder. Thabeet was not expected to contribute immediately, but it is atypical in the NBA to find that neither of the top-two draft picks makes it onto the court in their rookie seasons. Below is a list of the five best rookies this season, and it is important to note that this is not a list of the top ROY candidates, rather it is a list of the best players in terms of how they will perform in the future based on their rookie seasons.

1. Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

Curry started off slow this season at 9.8 ppg after his first full month in the NBA, but he has gotten better every week. Over the last three months Curry has averaged 20 points and 7 assists per game. Those are impressive rookie numbers that no other rookie has matched this season. Curry is quick, he can shoot from anywhere on the court, and he is a natural passer in only his second season at the point guard position. No other rookie has a ceiling as high as Curry’s.

Some argue that Curry is a product of Golden State’s high-scoring offense, but it is hard to argue against shooting percentages: Curry is shooting 46% from the field, which most high-scoring volume-shooting guards can only dream of. He’s also shooting 42% from the three-point line, which is tenth best in the NBA. Curry is not simply a volume shooter that benefits from a high-scoring offense – he is a very efficient scorer and passer.

2. Tyreke Evans – Sacramento Kings

Evans will most likely win the Rookie of the Year award, which he deserves. He has been the most consistent and NBA-ready rookie by far this season and his stats exemplify that. He has averaged 20 points 5 rebounds and 5 assists, which puts him in an elite group of rookies: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Oscar Robertson were the only other rookies in NBA history to accomplish this.

Evans is also a great perimeter defender, and he looks to be a player that a franchise can truly build around. Evans will help Sacramento win games for years to come, and he will most likely be an All-Star on a continual basis.

3. Darren Collison – New Orleans Hornets

Since Chris Paul went down with an injury in January, Collison has had 25 games to showcase his abilities as New Orleans’ starting point guard. In January Collison averaged 21 points and 8 assists per game, and he followed that up in March with 16.8 points and 10 assists. Those are All-Star numbers, and it looks like Collison has learned a lot from playing behind a perennial All-Star in Paul.

Collison claims to be the fastest player in the NBA, which is an embellishment, but he generally seems to be the fastest player on the court. Collison has excellent natural ability, and he can at times get to the paint at will. Collison, though, needs to work on his turnovers. He has protected the ball atrociously averaging well over three turnovers per game since he has been given starting minutes.

4. Marcus Thornton – New Orleans Hornets

Thornton, the cousin of the Wizards’ Al Thornton, looks to be one of the better scoring guards from the 2009 draft. He is averaging just under 14 points per game in 24 minutes, but since he has garnered playing time over the last two months, he has averaged 20 points per contest.

Thornton is primarily a jump shooter, which limits his potential. He will most likely not be a franchise player that Evan or Curry could be. He may have a Michael Redd-like career in which he averages 20 points a game as a starting shooting guard.

5. James Harden – Oklahoma City Thunder

Harden looks to be another solid scoring guard, but he has not gotten the playing time yet for the playoff-bound OKC Thunder. Harden is reliant on his jump shot as Thornton is, but he has the skill set to be a dynamic scorer. He was touted as the player with the best overall game in the ’09 draft class, and he can still be that player. Harden has averaged 10 ppg in only 23 minutes. When he is given opportunities he has done fairly well, and his current average will undoubtedly improve dramatically over the next few seasons. Again, he will most likely not be a franchise cornerstone, but he will be a solid starter for a good team.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Jennings – Milwaukee Bucks

Jennings is having one of the best rookie campaigns of anyone in the NBA, but his numbers are misleading. 37% field goal percentage does not get it done in the NBA. He also benefited from playing basketball in Europe, so he could be a more polished product than the other rookies.

Jonny Flynn – Minnesota Timberwolves

Flynn has averaged 14 points and 4 assists for most of the season. Flynn is barely 20 years old, so he will likely make major improvements, but his assist to turnover ratio needs to improve as well as his shooting percentage.

Top Five NBA Teams of the Future

March 13, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Fanspeak contributing writer Geoff Nelowet

With the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers dominating nearly every media outlet, and with the words “Kobe” and “LeBron” prefacing every NBA conversation, it’s time we take a look at the teams that aren’t leading the league right now, but almost certainly will be in the future. I’ve ranked the top five teams of the future based on three criteria: young talent, salary cap space, and projected draft status. Two of the five teams are currently NBA bottom feeders, but they have young talent, cap space, and ostensibly a top-five draft pick in this summer’s NBA draft.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 39-24 Payroll: 58.3 M (28th in NBA) Draft Status: two non-lottery first round picks, OKC and Phoenix

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden make up easily the best young nucleus in the NBA. Durant is currently second in the NBA in scoring at almost 30 per game, and Westbrook is averaging nearly 17 points and 8 assists in just his second professional season. Jeff Green is having a bit of a down year, but he’s still putting up 14.5 points and over 6 boards a night, and rookie James Harden is averaging 10 points per game in limited minutes.

This team has already found success in the NBA, as they currently sit as the five seed in the rugged Western Conference playoff race. They will definitely be the proverbial “team nobody wants to face come playoff time” because they get better every week, and it’s only a matter of time before they become the NBA elite.

This team also holds the third-lowest payroll in the NBA, and with this summer expected to be the biggest free agency in decades, the Oklahoma City Thunder could land a low post player such as Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer. Even more optimistically, the Thunder could go after Chris Bosh. Regardless of what transpires this summer or the next, the Thunder are in line to sign a major low-post contributor that will almost definitely push them over the top.

2. Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 39-28 Payroll: 55.8 M (30th) Draft Status: non-lottery selection

The Portland Trail Blazers looked like a team with an even brighter future a year ago, but with Greg Oden facing major injuries – and the fact that he simply has not become a dominant NBA center, the Trail Blazers bright future has slightly dimmed. Also many people had high hopes for foreigner Rudy Fernandez, and especially after the Olympics, but he has yet to amount to anything more than a solid backup wing player.

Despite these setbacks, the Trail Blazers are still a team fraught with good, young talent. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge have become cornerstones for the franchise, and Roy looks to be one of the best young scorers in the NBA. Oden still has plenty of upside as long as he stays healthy, and Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum round out a very young and talented bench.

Portland also has the lowest payroll in the NBA, and premium talent is on its way. Portland of course, will be vying with nearly half the league to sign the big name free agents this summer, but even if they end up signing second or third tier players, they will still be a major force in the Western Conference for years to come.

3. Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 34-31 Payroll: 57.4 M (29th) Draft Status: three first round picks, top-fifteen pick (Memphis), two non-lottery DEN and LAL

OJ Mayo, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay have already made this team competitive, and they will only get better with time. Mayo averages 17.5 points per game in just his second NBA season, and Gasol has emerged as one of the best young centers in the league averaging nearly 15 points and 10 rebounds. Rudy Gay has been equally as good averaging 20 points and 5 boards.

Memphis’ young nucleus has been in the NBA for three seasons or less, and with solid young players such as Mike Conley and Sam Young contributing on a nightly basis, this looks to be one of the better teams in the NBA down the road. Memphis also has center Hasheem Thabeet, whom they drafted second overall last summer riding the bench. He is the prototypical “project” player, and he has spent time in the NBDL, which is generally a bad sign, but he still has the ability to be an excellent player. With three first round picks they can either package them to acquire a top lottery pick or use all three to have a top young bench.

Memphis holds the second-lowest payroll in the NBA. They have the ability to make a major splash in free agency, but it will be difficult for them to reel in big name free agents when they are competing with the New York Knicks or any other more enticing destination.

4. Golden State Warriors

Record: 17-47 Payroll: 65.9 M (21st) Draft Status: top-five pick

This team may be a surprise on this list, but they will boast arguably the best backcourt in the NBA for years to come. Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry have become two of the best guard in the NBA, and they can both score and pass. Ellis is currently fifth in the NBA in scoring at 25.5 per game, and Stephen Curry, in his rookie season, has averaged over 20 points per game over the last two months.

The Warriors also have Andris Biedrins and Anthony Randolph – two very good young players – in their frontcourt. Biedrins has been battling injuries, and Randolph has been inconsistent at times, but both have the skills to be excellent starters, and they have demonstrated that on numerous occasions.

Golden State will likely not be a big spender this off season, but they are in line for a top-five draft pick, which means even more young talent. Of course, their pick could be a bust, but this draft is expected to be unusually deep. If the Warriors get lucky and earn a top-two pick, they could set themselves up for a very promising future.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-51 Payroll: 62.2 M (24th) Draft Status: Up to three selections, top-five pick Minn., late-1st round (Utah), mid-round (Charlotte)*

The Timberwolves have one of the best young frontcourts in the NBA with Al Jefferson averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game, and Kevin Love contributing 15 points and 11 boards per night. Both players are under 25 years old, which is the most impressive part of their performances. Rookie Jonny Flynn has averaged nearly 14 points per game at point guard for the Timberwolves, and he completes their triumvirate of young talent. The Timberwolves also hold the rights to the top international player, Ricky Rubio, who can be used as a major trade chip down the road.

The Timberwolves also hold a minimal payroll, with most of their contracts coming off the books at the end of the season. As with every team, signing a big name free agent will be a highly competitive endeavor, and it is unlikely that someone such as LeBron James would ever consider signing with Minnesota, but looking ahead to future free agent classes, the T-Wolves could be a major player.

Most importantly, Minnesota is a lock for a top-five draft pick. They will be able to add a fourth elite young player to their already talented core group. They could also have an additional two first round picks that the Timberwolves could use to bolster their bench with young talent.This summer’s draft could push teams such as Minnesota and Golden State to immediate playoff contenders similar to the jump that Memphis made this past year.

*Charlotte’s pick is top 12 protected, right now they are just outside the top 12, but that could easily change.